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The Revenue
Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) yesterday said
revenue accruals from the exploitation of crude oil from the 172
disputed oil wells between Akwa Ibom and Rivers states are to be saved
in a special account pending the resolution of the issues by the
Inter-Agency Technical Committee on the implementation of the Supreme
Court Judgment.

The Commission said
at the end of its 53rd plenary session in Abuja that the decision to
create the escrow account was part of steps taken to ensure equity,
fairness and justice in the implementation of the judgment by the apex
court.

Head, Public
Relations unit of the commission, Theodora Onyebuchi, said the creation
of the account was part of the resolutions reached during the meeting.
“The amount due to Akwa Ibom and Rivers states for the month of
February 2011 from the disputed areas in which the 172 oil wells are
located would be put into an Escrow Account pending the time the
inter-agency technical committee on the implementation of the Supreme
Court Judgment completes its assignment,” Mrs Onyebuchi said.

Level of compliance

Following the
Supreme Court’s judgment of Friday, March 18, 2011 in suit No.
SC/27/2010 in the dispute between the two states over the ownership of
the oil well, the attorney general of the federation and minister of
justice had written to the commission and other relevant agencies to
advise them on the need to comply with the judgment, especially the 1st
order on page 16 of the lead judgment.

The judgment had
ordered for the immediate transfer of 86 oil wells hitherto located in
Akwa Ibom territory to Rivers State as well as the refund of certain
amounts that the former may have earned from the exploitation of oil
from the wells between April 2009 and March 2011.

Following the
judgment, the RMAFC constituted an Inter-Agency Technical Committee,
which was inaugurated on Wednesday, April 13, 2011, with a mandate to
examine the implications of the judgment in all its ramifications and
collate the data required to effectively implement the judgment.

The Committee
comprise of: Representatives of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN),
Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), National Boundary Commission
(NBC), Office of the Surveyor General of the Federation (OSGF),
Attorney General of the Federation/Ministry of Justice (AGF/MOJ),
Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC), and
Accountant General of the Federation (AGF).

The required data
include the crude oil and gas production data for the affected oil
wells from April, 2009 to March, 2011; the prevailing commercial
interest rates for the period, April 2009 to March 2011; details of the
13 percent Derivation Fund Disbursements to oil producing States for
the period April, 2009 to March 2011; computed revenue earnings and
amounts to be paid to Rivers State by Akwa Ibom State as refunds as
ordered by the apex court.

Besides, the
Inter-Agency Technical Committee, which was given two weeks from the
date of its inauguration to complete its assignment, was also mandated
to make recommendations on the modalities for the repayment of the
amount due to Rivers State.

Though the
committee has since submitted an interim report to the commission, it
was gathered yesterday that its final report is expected in two weeks’
time.

The Nigerian Stock
Exchange (NSE) says it is on track towards its integration into global
capital market operations and standards.

The chairman of the
Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) board of directors, Udoma
Udoma, told participants in the ongoing Thomson Reuters Foundation
journalism training course on financial and economic reporting in
Lagos, that apart from the reforms to restore confidence in the wake of
the 2008 market crash, steps have been taken to upgrade the operational
process to bring them to global standards.

He noted
unprecedented growth by all market indicators, saying capitalisation
rose fromN2.5 trillion in 2005 to N12.1 trillion by March 2008, while
trading value increased with a daily average of N1.06 billion from
N254.7 billion in 2005 to N2.086 trillion in 2007, with a daily average
of N8.62 billion.

Though he said
market capitalisation as of December 31, 2010, was at about N10.33
trillion, with about 264 listed securities comprised of 217 equities
and 47 debts, Mr Udoma, however, traced the collapse of the capital
market to insider dealings as well as abuses of margin lending by
banks, which gave loans to many investors to buy shares without
collateral.

He said the
reactivation of FGN bond resulted in the issuance of over N3.5 trillion
bonds between 2003 and 2010, while secondary transactions of the bonds
on OTC market was over N48 trillion between 2006 and 2010, with about
11 state governments going to the market to raise funds for their
programmes.

Market challenges

He listed the
challenges the market is currently facing to include low investor
confidence; poor market depth, in terms of limited securities and
products on offer; poor savings and investment culture as a result of
the country’s low per capita income; low market liquidity; excessive
market concentration, with over 60 percent of trading activities on
bank stocks as well as legal constraints.

As part of the
reforms, he said 52 new rules and amendments have been introduced since
2008, including new margin trading guide lines by the Central Bank of
Nigeria and the Anti-Money Laundering/Combating Financing of Terrorism
manual to help banks and stockbrokers check incidences of money
laundering.

Besides, he said a
new code of corporate governance, which became effective last month,
requires auditors to report on the adequacy and effective of internal
regulatory systems as well as change the company’s audit and partners
every year, while upgrades have been carried out on the NSE platform to
meet international standards.

“We are on track
towards reforming the Nigerian Stock Exchange into a world class
capital market. The country’s capital market is not in isolation from
the international community. The Nigerian economy is poised to take off
with the stability being provided better elections,” he said.

Other actions taken
to reform the system include development of a model for risk-based
supervision, particularly for regulated entities; rationalization of
the market’s intermediary structure through stratification of the
broker-community; overhauling of complaints management framework to
ensure improved efficiency and alignment of the market with
international best practices in complaint management as well as
encouragement of functional market makers to facilitate securities
lending and borrowing.

International regulatory standards

Apart from
migration to International Financial Reporting Standard before 2012,
the SEC board chairman said the commission is considering the
self-assessment exercise of the implementation of the 38 International
Organisation of Securities Commission objectives as well as the
principles of securities regulations to conform to international
regulatory standards.

“Capital market
offers enterprises and governments wider opportunities to secure funds
for development. Where there is no developed capital market, short-term
funds from commercial banks are not the best sources of funding for
business enterprises and long term investments.

“In Nigeria, where industrial production is as low as 4 percent of
gross domestic product (GDP), as against an average of 8.5 percent
about 15 years, it is the country’s low industrial capacity that is
partly responsible for the current high unemployment in the country.
Therefore, if Nigeria must realize its aspiration to be among the
world’s top 20 economies by 2020, industry share of the GDP has to
increase to about 20-25 percent. That is why the integration of the
capital market is crucial,’ he said.

The numbers of
quoted companies posting positive financial results at the Nigerian
Stock Exchange have continued to increase in figures.

Compared to last
year’s performance of some companies, where most of them posted
negative results, about 55 companies out of the over 80 companies that
have submitted financial results at the Exchange this quarter recorded
profits.

Market watchers had
predicted early this quarter that more quoted companies, particularly
the banks, will return to profitability in their financial reports on
the back of the improved state of the nation’s economy.

Stockbrokers at GTI
Capital, a stock broking firm, also said that the recent streak of
positive earnings emanating from quoted firms has continued to “add-up
enthusiasm to the market.” “Despite the fact that the market has been
in oscillatory trend as a result of periodic profit taking, volume of
transaction confirms intensified interest from the investing public,”
the firm stated. “In response to positive earnings reported in the
market, indicators grew northward (upward).”

Recent results

Nigerian Breweries’
unaudited result for the first quarter ended 31st March 2011 shows a
turnover of N52.029 billion as against N40.574 billion in the
comparable period of 2010. Profit after tax stood at N7.919 billion
compared with that of N6.456 billion in 2010.

Also, UAC Nigeria’s
unaudited result for the first quarter ended 31st March 2011 shows a
turnover of N12.533 billion, as against N10.912 billion in the
comparable period of 2010. The company’s profit after tax and minority
interest stood at N464.3 million compared with that of N422.09 million
in 2010.

In the unaudited
result of Nigerian Bottling Company, for the first quarter ended 31st
March 2011, the company recorded a turnover of N29.144 billion as
against N26.787 billion in the comparable period of 2010. Profit after
tax stood at N331 million compared with that of N241 million in 2010.
Oceanic Bank’s unaudited result for the first quarter ended 31st March
2011 shows gross earnings of N27.173 billion as against N30.351 billion
in the comparable period of 2010. The bank’s profit after tax stood at
N1.902 billion, compared with that of N1.676 billion in 2010.

Adesoji Solanke, a bank analyst at Renaissance Capital, an
investment bank, said Oceanic Bank financial results showed that the
company is returning to profitability though it is still evident that
the bank’s performance is “lethargic; as it experienced massive
write-back and recovery last year.” “Going forward, we believe
investors’ focus for these banks should be to see whether the yield
from their asset mix currently dominated with liquid assets, would be
adequate enough to cover their operating and regulatory expenses,” he
said. “We expect 2011 to be mixed in terms of financial performance
across the intervened banks space, but with an incremental
profitability run-rate through the quarters.”

Stakeholders in the
cement industry have expressed concern over the increasing prices of
the product across the country in the last four months.

Some have attributed the situation to problems of inadequate supply, high transportation cost and policy somersault.

A survey conducted
by the News Agency Nigeria (NAN) across the country showed that prices
of the different brands of cement have gone up by an average of 44
percent in the past four months.

A bag of cement, which was sold for an average of N1, 500 in December 2010 is now on the average of N2, 500.

The cost of cement has now become a sensitive issue like that of petroleum products and food items.

The major brands of cement in the country are: Ashaka, Ibeto, Burham, Bua, Elephant and Dangote.

They are
manufactured in different locations across the country although dealers
said the Dangote brand is the most popular as it is more readily
available in the market.

Abdulkadir Ibrahim, a civil servant in Kano, described the rising prices of cement as “painful and incredible.”

“I am just building a corner shop near my house and it is taking me years to actualise it because of high prices of cement.

“I used to buy a
bag of Dangote cement for N1, 800 just four months ago, but now it
costs N2, 350. Government must do something about this,” Ibrahim said.

Aliyu Mahmood, a businessman in Kano, also bemoaned the high and unstable prices of cement across the country.

Supply deficit

“If I buy a bag of
Ashaka cement for N2, 150 today, tomorrow they will increase the price
to N2, 250 because of the scarcity. This is traumatic,” Mr Mahmood, who
is building a duplex in Kano, said.

The survey showed that the rising prices are often market induced because of supply deficit.

NAN reports that
cement dealers in Akure, Ondo State, have confirmed the scarcity of all
the brands which, they said, had in turn affected the prices.

Funso Omotola, a
dealer on Idanre Road, Akure, told NAN that price of Elephant brand of
cement rose to as high as N2, 750 in late March due to short supply and
high demand for the product.

Stakeholders alleged that some cement manufacturers were taking advantage of the supply gap to increase prices arbitrarily.

An official of
Ashaka Cement depot in Kaduna, who pleaded anonymity, told NAN that a
bag was sold for N1, 500 in November last year, but since then, the
depot had not received any supply.

Some dealers have also blamed high transportation cost for the recent hike in prices of cement.

Abdullrasaq Usman,
a cement distributor at Kaduna North Railway Station, told NAN that it
used to cost them N80, 000 to transport 600 bags of cement from Obajana
in Kogi State to Kaduna.

Mr Usman said it now cost N300, 000 to transport same quantity to Kaduna due to the scarcity of diesel.

“The cost of a
trailer load containing 600 bags of cement is N912,000 while
transportation cost is N300,000, which makes the unit price N2,020 from
the manufactures,” he said.

Price fluctuations

Dele Ade-Ojo, an
engineer and Head of Works Department at a local government secretariat
in Akure told NAN that fluctuations in the prices of cement has greatly
affected construction works in the council.

To accommodate the
high cost of cement, the engineer said he had to come up with so many
cost variations on projects he was handling.

A report from
Cement Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (CMAN) and Renaissance
Capital on cement situation in Nigeria confirmed that there was a
supply deficit which local producers had not been able to meet despite
investments in new plants.

“The high costs of
doing business in Nigeria and other factors have helped to keep
capacity utilisation at an industry average of 68 percent over the last
five years,” CMAN said.

NAN

Trading activities
in Starcomms’ shares yesterday boosted market volume as the quantity of
shares transacted during the day rose by 26.11 percent as against a
marginal increase of 6.59 percent recorded last trading day. A total of
371.664 million shares were traded compared to 294.696 million at the
previous trading session last Friday.

Investors traded
69.569 million units of Starcomms’ shares worth N50.674 million on
Monday while the company’s share price, listed under the Nigerian Stock
Exchange’s Information & Communication Technology subsector, rose
by 2.74 percent to close at 75 kobo per share. The large traded volume
was followed by Zenith Bank, United Bank for Africa and FinBank.

Olugbenga Emmanuel,
a finance analyst at WealthZone Company, a portfolio management
company, said the investors’ confidence may not have been restored at
the nation’s bourse, “but some institutional investors are currently
buying some stocks at low prices; taking advantage of sellers’
enthusiasm despite the continuous decline in the entire market
performance.”

Decline continues

Meanwhile, the
market capitalisation of equities at the stock exchange depreciated by
0.16 percent at the close of trading session on Monday. The NSE market
capitalisation of the 194 First-Tier equities closed yesterday at
N8.071 trillion after opening the day at N8.084 trillion, reflecting
N13 billion losses.

The NSE All-Share
Index yesterday shed 0.15 percent or 37.96 units to close at 25,262.50
basis points from the 25,300.46 recorded at the beginning of the day’s
trading.

The number of
gainers on Monday closed lower at 33 stocks compared to the 35 stocks
recorded last Friday. UAC Properties topped the gainers chart for the
day with five percent appreciations or 80 kobo to close at N16.81 per
share. On the losers’ side, a total of 21 stocks recorded price decline
compared to the 19 stocks that declined in the previous trading day.
Diamond Bank topped the losers chart with 4.97 percent depreciation or
37 kobo to close at N7.08 per share.

At the close of
trading yesterday, the banking subsector led the most active
subsector’s chart with 195.526 million quantities of shares, valued at
N1.609 billion. Volume in the subsector was largely driven by Zenith
Bank, followed by United Bank for Africa and FinBank.

The Information
& Communication Technology subsector was second in the most active
subsectors’ chart with 69.599 million volumes of shares, valued at over
N50.689 million. Starcomms, the most traded stock for the day, largely
boosted volume in the subsector, followed by Chams Plc.

Trading activities
in the Insurance subsector was third in the chart. Investors in the
sector exchanged 33.653 million volumes of shares, valued at N19.661
million.

Deals in shares of Equity Assurance, NEM Insurance, Universal Insurance Company,

and Goldlink Insurance boosted volume in the subsector.

Some Nigerian
businesses that took part in the just concluded World Economic Forum
(WEF) in Cape Town, South Africa, have proffered suggestions they hope
would help facilitate inclusive economic growth, not only in Nigeria,
but throughout Africa.

Group chief
executive, Oando Group, Wale Tinubu, who featured as one of the
co-chairs at the three-day forum, called for the removal of all
artificial trade barriers in the way of businesses in Africa, while the
group deputy managing director, BGL Plc, Chibundu Edozie, sees the
expansion of the scope of businesses beyond the Nigerian market as the
way to build inclusive economic growth in the continent.

Strong African strategy

Mr Edozie said
Nigerians should abandon the fixation with the size of the Nigerian
market and focus attention on the entire continent, in view of the
increasing global interest in Africa’s potentials.

“As against the
Nigerian market of about 150 million people, the African market is a
billion people, with an already existing catchment of trades and
products. Though Nigeria should remain the core focus of their business
operations, Nigerians should start looking at very strong African
strategy, considering that the market is largely African, with the
world beginning to wake up to the reality of the need for Africa’s
economic integration,” he said.

Mr Tinubu, who was
invited to by the organizers to showcase the potentials of homegrown
companies that do business to world class standards and are identified
as emerging regional champions, said removal of all artificial
bottlenecks by governments to trade facilitation in the continent is
the fastest way to achieve economic integration in the continent.

He listed those
bottlenecks to include imposition of visa restrictions to citizens of
Africa; closure of national borders between countries in Africa, and
dearth of infrastructure, like roads and rail lines for easy movement
of persons and goods as well as protectionist policies by governments
barring African companies from doing businesses in other African states.

Inclusive economic growth

“The issue of
inclusive economic growth is all about regional integration. But, there
is the urgent need to open up the borders between countries in Africa
to facilitate movement of goods and services. If Africa is to create
one big market for goods and services, people have got to be able to
move around,” he said.

“There is also the
need for the rehabilitation of the infrastructure, like roads and
railway systems, to link the countries of Africa, to ensure easy
movement of persons and goods for business. One cannot create a global
market by erecting artificial barriers.”

While commending
the common passport by the Economic Community of West African States as
a big step in the right direction to achieve regional economic
integration, Mr Tinubu said governments in the region should move
quickly to consolidate on the gains of that policy by establishing a
common currency regime.

On the home front,
the Oando boss urged government to create a path for the growth of the
downstream sector of the country’s petroleum industry, by allowing full
deregulation policy, pointing out the plan to spend about $6 billion
this year on petroleum products subsidies will continue to hurt the
economy, as it will amount to merely managing the symptoms of the decay
in the economy, rather proffer concrete solutions.

Subsidy removal

“If $6 billion to
be used in petroleum subsidy is saved for one year, the country can
build a mass transit railway system that would help solve the
transportation problem of the country, which will serve the people for
a lifetime,” he noted.

Though he
acknowledged that the decision to quickly remove the subsidy would
create shock among consumers, Mr Tinubu suggested a two to three-year
plan by government, that can outline the achievement of demonstrable
capital-intensive infrastructure that Nigerians can identify with,
using the savings from the withdrawal of petroleum subsidy.

He identified Oando as a growth business that is continually
exploring new ways to satisfy the need of the economy, adding that the
company’s growth is driven by the demand for its services and products
in the different sectors of the economy, which is not going to be
satisfied by multinationals.

The
ambitious target to be among the top 20 economies by the year 2020 may
be farfetched after all, as Nigeria’s current growth trajectory does
not support such climb. World Bank country director for Nigeria, Onno
Ruhl, said Nigeria’s current gross domestic product growth of around
seven percent is not enough to achieve that feat.

“Vision
2020 is not about if it can be achieved by 2020, because any economist
will tell you at this point that would take you about 15 percent growth
every year and that has not happened in the history of mankind anyway.”

Do things differently

He
said instead of striving to be among the top 20 economies within the
time frame, the country should begin to do things differently in order
to grow the economy. “The point is, Nigeria should be among the 20
largest economies. Whether it is 2023 or 2024, it doesn’t matter. What
matters is that Nigeria should be ambitious and not accept second best.
Nigeria should aspire to be the best in everything it does on the
continent. That is the destiny of the largest country on the continent
as far as I can see.”

The
federal government in 2008, launched the Vision 2020 with a mandate
that “by 2020, Nigeria will be one of the 20 largest economies in the
world, able to consolidate its leadership role in Africa and establish
itself as a significant player in the global economic and political
arena.”

Implementing plans and visions

Mr
Ruhl said rather than discussing why Nigeria has not succeeded, the
emphasis should be on what the country needs to do in order to be where
it belongs.

“The
best example is China which achieved ten percent growth consistently
for 30 years. There is no reason Nigeria cannot achieve that and if it
does, it would be a different country very quickly and a much better
country by the year 2020.”

He
said the major challenge facing the country was implementing the plans
and visions that have been drawn over the years. “There is nobody that
does not know how to solve the power problems in Nigeria. It is not
rocket science. The issue is how we are going to do what needs to be
done.”

The
major focus of implementation of the vision include agriculture and
food security, business environment and competitiveness, corporate
governance, culture, tourism and national re-orientation, education,
employment, energy, health, housing, human development, information and
communications technology, judiciary and the rule of law and
manufacturing, among other.

Mr Ruhl said within the next few years, Nigeria will grow to be the
largest economy in Africa and must begin to position for that role.

A total of N133.11
billion has been disbursed under the N200 billion Commercial
Agriculture Credit Scheme as at April, 2010 to 139 beneficiaries across
the country. The beneficiaries include 115 individuals/private
promoters and 24 state governments. The federal government in 2009
launched the scheme to intervene in the agriculture sector which
currently contributes over 40 per cent to the country’s gross domestic
product (GDP).

Under the scheme,
which is funded from the proceeds of the N200 billion bond raised by
the Debt Management Office, participating banks can access for onward
lending to their customers while state governments and Abuja could also
borrow for on-lending to farmers in their domain.

The participating
states have accessed N1 billion each for lending to farmers. According
to data posted on the website of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the
states are Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Enugu, Gombe, Kebbi, Kogi, Imo,
Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Ondo, Sokoto, Taraba Zamfara, Akwa Ibom,
Rivers, Plateau, Edo, Kano, Benue, Bayelsa, Ogun and the Federal
Capital Territory – Abuja.

The funds are
disbursed through participating banks. The 13 banks participating in
the scheme are Access Bank, Fidelity Bank, First Bank, Guaranty Trust
Bank, Oceanic Bank, Skye, Stanbic IBTC, Union Bank, UBA, Unity Bank and
Zenith Bank. UBA has made the highest disbursement of N37.46 billion to
36 projects followed by Union Bank with N16.15 billion to 18 projects.
Zenith bank disbursed N13.84 billion to 10 projects while First Bank
disbursed N11.92 to 29 projects.

The Central Bank
stated that for failure to abide by guidelines, the regulator withdrew
fund from five banks with respect to 22 projects. The banks are UBA
N12.053 billion, Guarantee Trust Bank N581 million, Skye Bank N2
billion, First Bank N1.6 billion and Union Bank N2.166 billion.

Fast track development

The scheme was
meant to provide cheap funds to fast track development of the
agricultural sector, enhance national food security by increasing food
supply, reduce the cost of credit in agricultural production and
generate employment in the sector.

According to the
Central Bank, the key agricultural commodities to be covered under the
scheme are cultivation of target crops (rice, cassava, cotton, oil
palm, wheat, rubber, sugar cane, fruits and vegetable), Livestock
(dairy, poultry, and piggery), and fisheries.

Agriculture potential

The Managing
director of the World Bank, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated recently that
African countries need to improve on agriculture potentials in order to
boost its growth trajectory and reduce poverty. “I think African
countries really have to sustain their efforts to use agriculture funds
to ensure food security,” she said.

According to her,
Nigeria needs “to think of agriculture in a modern way,” since,
according to her, it is a sector that can provide so much employment.

I readily confess
to a fascination with the “theory of unintended consequences”. But, a
small clarification before anything further is written. My interest is
not in the certainty that everything that may go wrong about a policy
choice/decision is bound to. Confronted by almost six decades of inept
and often cynical management of this economy, it is to be expected that
we have come to associate “unintended consequences” with “negative
outcomes”.

In truth, put this
way, my central narrative is but a variant of Murphy’s Law. Instead, my
enthralment is with the benefits, losses, or wrong signals arising from
a particular action, but which were not conceived of in or intended as
part of the original action plan.

Newspaper headlines
on workers’ day, May 1, were all of one flavour. In their addresses to
the different labour rallies, state governors all pledged to implement
the new minimum wage. Not too long ago, the same persons had argued
that their state government budgets could not bear the extra financial
burden from paying the new minimum wage. What had changed since then? I
could think of only one proximate explanation: the events of late
April, this year.

On balance, the
last polls in the country appear to have moved the social engagement
envelope several notches up. The “voice” of the people was heard loud
and clear, amidst the din of many a strong man’s battered ego. That was
the intended consequence of the clamour over the years for a democracy
in which every vote is counted, and every vote counts.

To the extent that
it acts as counter-weight to the dominant culture of impunity that has
come to define our polity, a representative democracy ought to improve
both the collective capacity to choose, and the different cabinet’s
will to execute.

Perverse results

However, to the
extent that politicians interpret “re-election” as the main challenge
of a democracy, then even the best voting process could have perverse
results. One such result is the rise of populist politics. Because the
masses may now have the power of the vote, what is to stop unscrupulous
politicians from pandering to its basest instincts? To take but a few
examples, a thin line separates the need for higher taxes on the
affluent in aid of society’s redistribution responsibilities from a
restraint on commerce as part of an ill-advised process of
democratising poverty; a no less blurred space sits between the need to
protect employment for locals and xenophobia.

A less than honest
treatment of the policy choices at the heart of these two examples
could lead politicians in a race to the bottom of the dump yard; more
so in a democracy where people have only just begun to savour the power
that rightfully belongs to them. Our best bet is a lot more conviction
at the top. For leadership is not solely about bending resources and
capacity to the discharge of the popular will. It is more about shaping
the choice space. Agreeing a desired destination, and selling this to
the electorate. It is, in this very narrow sense, a question ultimately
of shaping the popular will. Of leading it down paths where only
visionaries have travelled previously.

Again as between a
visionary leader and a demagogue, the thinnest of lines demarcate. So
we arrive at the point where we must agree that even under the best of
representative democracies, the threat of continued misrule in this
country does not evaporate overnight. This danger is heightened by the
prevalent low levels of education in the country, both of the classroom
variety, and of the civic one, which can only come from a long thriving
civil society.

In the absence of such a society, then, our hopes for a better
tomorrow, in the short-term, at least still depend on the quality of
leadership we get. In the absence of a functioning democracy, a
benevolent caudillo almost became a popular fancy. One, who,
understanding the need for progress along modern lines, a la Singapore
and Malaysia, rammed that vision through society. Once we change the
rules of the game through trying to run elections properly, we deny
this possibility. Instead, the new need is for conviction politicians,
prepared to argue their corner as strenuously as the most modern
constitution permits, while eschewing popular lines.