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Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak came to power at a moment of national crisis after a
dramatic act of political violence coupled with an armed insurgency.
Thirty years later he is clinging to power, with more than 130 people
dead in the streets and with no clear successor.

Throughout the
intervening three decades and despite scores of empty promises, Mubarak
has done nothing to create an institutional framework for a peaceful
and democratic transfer of power in the Arab world’s most populous
nation. Instead he has perpetuated a system in which politics in the
conventional sense hardly exists, running the country by administrative
fiat as if it were an army or a corporation. Mubarak owes his
presidential career to President Anwar Sadat, who saw him as a loyal
subordinate and appointed him vice president in 1975.

At the time he
was commander of the air force, with no political experience or
ambitions. When Sadat summoned him to the presidential palace to offer
him the job, the most Mubarak expected was that he would end up as
Egyptian ambassador in some European capital, he said in a television
interview in 2005. Islamist revolutionaries gunned Sadat down at a
military parade in Cairo on Oct 6, 1981, and Mubarak, who was sitting
next to Sadat and was slightly injured, stepped into the breach, to
widespread relief among ordinary Egyptians.

Security and stability

Islamist
insurgents, incensed by Sadat’s peace treaty with Israel,
simultaneously tried to take over the southern city of Assiut. Mubarak
sent in the army to crush them. At the time his solid presence and
cautious demeanour had a calming effect on a country traumatised by the
assassination of Sadat and fearful of chaos and civil war.

But once installed
in power, Mubarak never offered Egyptians any vision other than
economic development under the same authoritarian system he had
inherited from the army officers who overthrew the monarchy in 1952.

Mubarak has spoken
about democracy whenever the occasion arises but his actions have never
suggested he understood the concept to include the possibility of early
retirement or losing power through elections.

He preferred to
talk about security and stability, portraying himself as a benign
patriarch protecting the country from an array of enemies, some real
and some imaginary. During a lesser crisis during the presidential
election campaign of 2005, when Washington was leaning on him to loosen
up, he dismissed with contempt the advice of intellectuals who told him
he needed to create real institutions. Until 2005 Mubarak was the only
candidate in presidential referendums. Even in 2005 he never deigned to
debate his main rival, liberal lawyer Ayman Nour,

who was then imprisoned for five years on dubious charges of forging signatures.

Economy picked up

Even economic
development was slow and patchy until his son Gamal, a former
investment banker, persuaded him to bring businessmen and neoliberal
economists into the cabinet. Economic growth picked up, hitting 7.2
percent in the financial year 2007/8, but meanwhile the gap has grown
between rich and poor, inflation has stayed high and the poor complain
that they have seen none of the benefits. On the political front,
little changed. Businessmen friends and associates of Gamal Mubarak
moved into the upper reaches of the ruling party, the National
Democratic Party (NDP), which has been one of the prime targets of the
current uprising.

More and more
complacent and unimaginative as he ages, Mubarak has condoned or turned
a blind eye to the gradual erosion of the rule of law, making a smooth
and broadly accepted transition of power more and more elusive.

Police have
tortured with impunity anyone who challenges authority, and corrupt
politicians have monopolised the political scene by rigging elections
and fixing the rules to exclude all rivals. Officials say voting is
fair and that it investigates any cases of torture. Mubarak has seemed
oblivious to the dangers. Asked last year who would succeed him, he
said: “Only God knows who will be my successor. Whoever God prefers, I
prefer.” U.S. ambassador Margaret Scobie, summarising Mubarak’s vision
in a cable leaked by Wikileaks, concurred. “He seems to be trusting to
God and the ubiquitous military and civilian security services to
ensure an orderly transition,” she wrote.

REUTERS

A week long sifting
of thousands of names and records in large stacks of files, is likely
to come to an end today for officials of the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC), with the formal publication of the list of
candidates for the April general elections.

Clumped in a hall
at the commission’s headquarters in Abuja, the staff of the commission
have since Monday been going through documents trying to fish out areas
that could lead to disqualification of the candidates.

But the declaration
that will end what INEC officials have repeatedly termed “speculative
list” is expected to usher in a fresh wave of glory for some and also
some controversy, with expected upsets as well as corresponding legal
tussles.

Already, some
federal lawmakers who lost out of the primary elections of their
political parties have announced their intentions to press legal
actions against their parties and may be, the commission if the names
of their opponents, declared as winners by their parties, are listed
for the general elections by INEC today.

In Bayelsa State,
serving Senator, Nimi Barigha, has already secured a court injunction
restraining the listing of the name of Clever Ikisikpo, a serving
member of the House of Representatives, declared by the People’s
Democratic Party as the senatorial candidate for Bayelsa East
Senatorial District.

In the suit filed
at an Abuja High Court, Mr Amange also asked the court to bar Mr
Ikisikpo as the candidate for the seat in a classic model of the legal
intrigues that may come after the release of the list from the
electoral commission.

Mr Ikisikpo’s
colleague in the House, from Akwa Ibom State, Eseme Eyiboh, who lost at
the primaries and a rerun, has also warned of a tougher action if the
name of his opponent, Dan Abia, is announced by the same party for a
seat in the House.

In the first
election, Mr Eyiboh, the chairman, House committee on Media polled 179
votes, against Dan Abia’s 586. At the rerun, he polled only five votes
against Mr Abia’s 772. In a petition to the party leadership, Mr Eyiboh
said a purported relocation of the election venue, had violated
electoral laws.

Most of last week,
INEC, faced with the controversy of the replacements of some earlier
submitted names, said it is law-abiding and would strive to hold on to
court positions on any of the cases. “We will always obey the law. That
is our position,” said Emmanuel Umenger, the commission’s Director of
Public Affairs.

For most of last
week, as anxiety mounted about who will, or will not make the final
list, the commission staff, acting in unison, stayed away from formally
discussing the names of those affected across the parties. The
officials said they will wait until the formal release which by the
law, is supposed to come within seven days of receipt of the names from
the political parties.

Intense lobby

However, informed
sources have given hints that the list may be out today. All the
presidential candidates across different political parties, including
President Goodluck Jonathan are to make the list. Our sources also say
all governors on the platform of the PDP who have not completed their
second term are to be part of the list. It is not clear what will
become of the petition filed by former vice- president Atiku Abubakar
asking INEC to declare the PDP primaries null and void.

The one exception
here may be the Oyo State governor, Adebayo Alao Akala. The electoral
body had reportedly said his name was not dropped, but then told
reporters his case his being reviewed. Mr Alao-Akala’s bid has been
tempered by a string of court decisions and overturns, in which at
least one more ruling is expected February 10, 2011. Complaints
emanating from the conduct of the primaries-where parallel primaries
were held-have led to his being restrained by the Federal High Court in
Ibadan.

For PDP in Gombe
State where the governor is rounding a second term, former Accountant
General of the Federation, Ibrahim Dankwambo is expected to be listed
as the PDP candidate.

Some of the notable
names from the other parties could include the former governor of Kano
State and former Minister of Defence, Rabiu Kwankwaso. Mr Kwankwaso’s
submission was earlier contested against and is expected to stir
further controversies if announced by INEC.

From the other
parties, Yakubu Lado Danmarke is expected to be announced as the
gubernatorial candidate for the Congress for Progressive Change
gubernatorial candidate for Katsina State, the hot bed of the new party
championed by presidential aspirant, Muhammadu Buhari.

Besides several
states and federal lawmakers whose listings may spur further debates,
the most contentious nominations may be those from Ogun State currently
torn in two by a fight between the opposing political atmosphere
championed by former president Olusegun Obasanjo on the one hand and
governor, Gbenga Daniel on the other.

In the final twist
last week, Tunji Olurin and Iyabo Obasanjo (daughter of the former
president) replaced Adeleke Isiaka and Lola-Edewor Abiola -from the
governor’s camp- as the gubernatorial and senatorial candidates
respectively.

While INEC last
week confirmed it accepted the names submitted by the faction
sympathetic to Mr Obasanjo as replacements to those submitted by Mr
Daniel, it has firmly refused to comment on whether or not, the name of
Dimeji Bankole, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who was
part of the governor’s list, is now on the new register.

The judgement list

“Let us all wait
for the final list to be released,” Kayode Idowu, media aide to
chairman, Attahiru Jega, replied NEXT when asked for a response on Mr
Bankole’s fate. The Speaker’s aide, Idowu Bakare, when asked by
correspondents about the position of his boss, was coy at first but
later through a text message, insisted that Mr Bankole’s name was never
part of the contradictions between Mr Obasanjo’s camp and Mr Daniel’s
faction of the PDP.

“There is no
dispute over the Abeokuta South Federal constituency, it was only one
primary election and the winner of that primary election was Dimeji
Bankole,” Mr Bakare asserted.

But in a
conversation with NEXT, prominent member from Mr Obasanjo’s camp,
insists the speaker can only be part of the list if some high wire
manoeuvring took place. According to our source, the former president’s
camp is well aware of what could happen and may not protest against it.

“I have the names on our list off hand and Mr Bankole’s name is not there,” the sources said. After Mr

Bankole’s opponent
stepped down at a parallel primaries by Mr Daniel’s camp, this person
who refused to be named said, one of the contestants, Fasiu Bakane, was
invited to take up the Abeokuta South seat on Mr Obasanjo’s camp.

Mr Bakane, himself
said to have believed he might be substituted refused to commit his
finances to the course. It was his name that was reportedly submitted
to INEC by the Obasanjo camp in place of Mr Bankole.

Egypt has suffered
huge economic losses during political protests that broke out 12 days
ago but the government is committed to meeting its financial
obligations, finance minister Samir Radwan said on Friday.

“Certainly it’s
going to be huge,” Radwan said in an interview with Reuters Insider
television. “It’s too early to put the loss in terms of pounds and
pennies.”

He said the
Egyptian government would honour all financial commitments once banks
reopen on Sunday, including 21 billion Egyptian pounds worth of
Treasury bills that must be redeemed next week.

Radwan said the governor of the central bank had been in constant contact with the heads of banks.

“He has two major
concerns. One, not starve the market for cash, and two, not to put any
stringent measures on foreign investors and foreign dealers and so on,
and of course ease the pressure on the Egyptian pound,” Radwan said.

Two major sources of foreign exchange, tourism and remittances from workers abroad, had been hurt, Radwan said.

“One million
tourists alone have left the country already. This is the height of the
tourist season in Egypt,” he said. “The sooner the present stand-off is
over, the better our position will be to deal with the effect.”

Asked about food prices, he said they would not be allowed to get out of hand after the political crisis was settled.

“We are adamant
that markets should be controlled, that they should not be subject to
chaos. It’s normal that in a situation like this people would like to
put up prices,” Radwan said.

Day of Departure protest

Hundreds of
thousands of Egyptians marched peacefully in Cairo on Friday to demand
an immediate end to President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule, but there
was no sign of his generals, or his U.S. allies, squeezing him out just
yet.

Turnout nationwide
seemed short of the million seen on Tuesday and which leaders had hoped
to match on what they called “Departure Day”. Many Egyptians, weary of
disorder, feel Mubarak did enough this week by pledging to step down in
September. Some also were wary of renewed violence by shadowy Mubarak
loyalists.

On the 11th day of
unprecedented massive protests which have revolutionised Egypt and the
wider Arab world, some 200,000 men and women from all walks of life
streamed past patient soldiers to the capital’s Tahrir, or Liberation,
Square.

A similar number marched in the second city of Alexandria and smaller pro-democracy rallies were held elsewhere.

“Leave! Leave!
Leave!” crowds chanted after Friday prayers on the square in Cairo. A
cleric praised the “revolution of the young” and declared: “We want the
head of the regime removed.”

“Game over” said one banner, in English for the benefit of international television channels beaming out live coverage.

Yet for all the
enthusiasm on the streets, and new-found tolerance by the army,
Mubarak’s fate, and that of a 60-year-old system of military-backed
rule, lies as much in bargains struck behind the scenes among generals
keen to retain influence and Western officials anxious not to see a key
Arab ally against radical Muslims slide into chaos or be taken over by
Islamists.

European Union
leaders echoed calls from the United States for Mubarak to do more than
promise not to run in September’s election: “This transition process
must start now,” they said.

The 82-year-old president said on Thursday he was “fed up” but would not stand down because that would create chaos.

Prominent figures

A handful of
prominent figures from academia and business said they proposed a
compromise under which newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman, a
former intelligence chief who has the confidence of Washington, should
take over real authority while Mubarak could serve out his fifth term
as a figurehead leader.

There was a
festive, weekend atmosphere as secular, middle-class professionals and
pious, generally poorer, members of the mass Islamist movement the
Muslim Brotherhood, mingled, sang and chanted under banners and
ubiquitous Egyptian flags.

Food and water, medical treatment for those overcome by heat and crowding, opinions and jokes were all shared.

Away from the
square, groups of Mubarak loyalists harassed journalists. Some attacked
the offices of Al Jazeera television. Others tried to deter people from
demonstrating. But there was little of the extreme violence seen on
Wednesday and Thursday.

In a reminder of
how events in Egypt are linked to a wider confrontation between
Islamists and Western powers in the oil-rich Middle East, Iran’s
supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hailed an “Islamic liberation
movement” in Egypt.

Iran’s
anti-Western, Islamic revolution of 1979 against the repressive,
U.S.-funded shah has been cited by some in Israel and the West as
creating a possible precedent for Egypt to turn into a major hostile
force to Western power in the region.

U.S. discussions

U.S. officials said
they were discussing with Egyptians a number of options to begin a
handover of power that would keep Egypt stable. Though President Barack
Obama has called publicly only for an immediate start to “transition”,
one option, a U.S. official said, was for Mubarak to be replaced right
away.

Mubarak and
ministers in the government he appointed a week ago in response to the
protests insist stability is better and have appealed over the heads of
the marchers to a wider public.

“More than 95
percent of the Egyptian people would vote for the president to complete
his presidential term … and not (retire) now as America and some
Western states want,” new Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq was quoted as
saying by state media.

New Finance
Minister Samir Radwan told Reuters the economic losses after 11 days of
protest will be “huge”. The tourist business, centred on pyramids and
beaches, has been ravaged.

Radwan said the government had set up a fund worth $850 million to compensate people whose property had been damaged.

Islamist assurances

The long-banned
Muslim Brotherhood has sought to allay Western and Israeli concerns
about its potential to take power in a free vote. A day after Vice
President Suleiman broke ground by saying the Brotherhood was welcome
to join a national dialogue, it said it would not seek the presidency.

Liberal figurehead
Mohamed ElBaradei, a retired U.N. diplomat, said he too did not seek
the top job, but repeated he was willing to help in a transition if
Mubarak resigned now.

But Amr Moussa,
secretary general of the Arab League and former Egyptian foreign
minister, said he believed Mubarak would hold on until September’s
election. Though he added cautiously: “But there are extraordinary
things happening, there’s chaos and perhaps he will take another
decision.”

Any new government will face major challenges, not least the sheer
diversity of long-suppressed political opinion, religious tensions and
the high expectations aroused by the demonstrations of solutions to
unemployment and other economic ills.

The founder and president of the Oodua Peoples
Congress, Frederick Fasehun, yesterday, said his organization will
resist the rise of political dynasties which became apparent after the
primary election of all political parties in the country.

Mr Fasehun, while addressing journalists on what
he called “Wake up series: calling Nigerians to order,” also called for
a rallying point to preserve the sovereignty of the people from
impending loss. “Is democracy synonymous with the ‘Selectocracy’ that
now determines the emergence of parties’ candidates for elective
positions?,” he said. “How can we subject ourselves to being ruled by
those who us no allegiance whatsoever because of the prejudiced,
unfair, and undemocratic process by which they emerge? How does a
servant serve well who has not been mandated to serve and how do you
expect peace from a situation of social injustice?”

The fault

According to him, “the abuse of the wish of the
majority by party leaders is caused by the failure of the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) to resolutely stamp its feet on
the nation’s political landscape as a non-partisan regulator it is
supposed to be.” “Consequently, the obvious trend in the nation’s
politics is that of supremacy of godfathers rather than the wish of the
people,” he said. Mr Fasehun said that true democracy cannot be the
nation’s lot as INEC, which he described in its present state as a
“toothless dog that can only bark but not bite”, is already laying the
foundation for a new era of rigging through its “ongoing systematic
official disenfranchisement.”

“This goes to show that Nigeria’s problem is not
the militants, but the politicians who find it difficult to provide
good leadership and social justice,” he said. “Or what is corruption if
we don’t count godfatherism, selectocracy, and rigging as its
attributes? Is institutionalization of [political] dynasties a feature
of democracy?” He added that more Nigerians need to actively speak
against social injustice because “our prophets – Fawehinmi, Beko, Chima
Ubani, Bala Usman, Enahoro – are getting fewer in numbers but we pray
the echoes of their prophecies will soon produce a worthy leader for
our currently leaderless 140 million people.”

Way forward

Mr Fasehun advised INEC to find a way to sanction
all political parties that have compromised internal democracy and
produced unpopular candidates. He expressed his reservation against
political litigations and advised the electoral commission to “open a
Department for Direct Public Complaints, where aspirants robbed of
their candidacy can file an appeal and reclaim their due mandate.” He
proposed a strict sanction for any political party that has, at least,
ten percent of its primary elections disputed. He also advocated a
statutory provision that will compel political parties to reserve at
least one third of their total candidates for women.

Created in 2004 by
the administration of Olusegun Obasanjo, the Excess Crude Account had
accrued up to $17.3 billion in 2007 and peaked at about $32 billion
from $5.1 billion when it was created.

In January 2009, the Excess Crude Account had a balance of $20 billion.

In February, the
Federation Account Allocation Committee recommended the sharing of $2
billion, after the state governors mounted pressure on the federal
government to share $4 billion.

In April, the National Economic Council approved $5.3 billion to fund the federal government’s power intervention.

Between June and
August 2009, $4 billion was shared by the government, after the state
governors went to court praying that the whole amount in the reserve be
shared.

Another $2 billion was shared to ameliorate the international oil price that was drastically reduced by global economic crisis.

Another $2 billion was injected into the economy as an economic stimulus towards the end of 2009.

In April 2010, $5.3 billion was released by the Accountant General Office.

In December 2010, $1 billion was approved by the president to be shared by the state governors.

The Excess Crude
Account (ECA) was created and sustained in controversy. Section 162 (1)
of the Constitution on Public Revenue stipulates that, “The Federation
shall maintain a special account to be called ‘the Federation Account’
into which shall be paid all revenues collected by the Government of
the Federation.” However, that did not dissuade former President
Olusegun Obasanjo from going ahead to create the Account in 2004. The
objective was to enable government transfer all revenues earned from
crude oil exports at a price above the budgeted benchmark price
indicated in the annual fiscal appropriation.

Illegal account

On face value, the
objective seemed altruistic, as revenues in the account were supposed
to be saved for the rainy day, to provide succour for government in
times of extreme difficulty. The Revenue Mobilization Allocation and
Fiscal Commission (RMAFC), which has the constitutional responsibility
to supervise and superintend over the allocation of government revenue
has consistently condemned the account as illegal and unconstitutional,
as all revenues are supposed to be pooled in the Federation Account to
be distributed among the component units of the Federation.

This stand was
supported by the Governors Forum, a meeting of all the 36 governors,
which declared that it was an illegal creation and that all money
accruing to government should be shared by all tiers of government and
not kept in any ‘‘illegal’’ account. This stand by the governors is not
entirely selfless as they wanted a ‘‘share’’ of the pie to fund their
own things.

As at 2008, when
average crude oil benchmark price was $108 per barrel, official records
from the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF)
indicated that accumulated revenue in the ECA rose to N1,728.48 billion.

However, as at December 2009, the account had been depleted to less than N72.74billion.

As at December last
year, after the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) held a
secret emergency meeting in the twilight of last month to disburse
$1billion (about N150 billion) to the three tiers of government,
Minister of State for Finance, Yawaba Lawan-Wabi, said the balance in
the Account was about $3million,

Earlier in January
2010, $5.5 billion was withdrawn from the Account for projects in the
power sector under the National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP). The
following month, another $2billion was approved by the then Acting
President, Goodluck Jonathan, from foreign ECA for projects to help
stimulate the economy. Another N23.23 billion was disbursed from the
domestic ECA for the settlement of the cost of petroleum products
supply subsidy by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).

After the signing
of the 2010 Appropriation Act, total distributable revenue for the
first quarter of the year stood at N1.495 trillion. But, since the
allocation was based on the 2009 oil benchmark of $45 per barrel, the
figure was reduced to about N758.06billion, requiring about N736.985
billion from the ECA to augment. ECA balance as at May was about $4.393
billion.

In June, $2billion
was withdrawn from the foreign ECA, while N36 billion was taken from
domestic ECA for revenue to augment arrears for May. With the creation
of a new excess revenue account created to host all savings in monthly
revenue earnings in excess of a ceiling of about N365 billion pegged as
amount that could be shared by the Federation Accounts Allocation
Committee (FAAC), the balance in the dollar ECA was $3.2billion and
Naira ECA N29billion, while the new excess revenue account held a
balance of N40 billion.

About $179million
was paid in July, bringing the balance in the dollar ECA to
$3.54billion, while another N20 billion went into the domestic ECA,
raising the balance N53.9billion; N75billion was paid into the new
excess revenue account for the month.

In August, another
$2billion was withdrawn from the ECA, apart from $1billion withdrawn
from ECA as seed money for the take off of the proposed Sovereign
Wealth Fund (SWF). Additional $2billion was withdrawn from the ECA the
same month, bringing the balance to about $460 million, while the new
Excess Revenue Account (ERA) climbed to over N112 billion. With about
$387.2 million transferred during the month into the dollar ECA, the
balance came to about $1.16 billion as at last October, while about
N175 billion was transferred into the Excess Development Account (EDA),
and N31.2 billion into Domestic (ECA).

However, by
December, $1billion was withdrawn from ECA and shared to the three
tiers of government during a secret emergency FAAC meeting held on the
twilight of the year.