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As we gear up for
the countdown to elections, time is clearly going to be the biggest
dictator in our next attempt at democratic elections.

There were two
problems with the 60-30 day straitjacket into which the 1999
Constitution put Nigeria’s electoral timetable: one, that elections
were held too close to the handover date; and two, that the 30 day
period within which elections had to be held was too narrow.

To nobody’s great
surprise, in amending the Constitution the National Assembly failed to
read the instructions properly, so while it moved the election
timetable back to allow more time between election and handover, it
didn’t widen the 30-day window. That may not matter much for the
immediate future, but it will be interesting to see what will happen if
and when the 30 days coincide with Ramadan. It would have made more
sense to allow a 60 or even 75-day period within which the Independent
National Electoral Commission could exercise its discretion about
fixing election dates.

By holding
elections earlier, the amended Constitution has at least taken
elections out of the running for a clash with Easter. But the
often-stated objective of concluding any election petitions before the
time for handing over falls due was always a non-starter. Practically
the only 2007 election petitions that were concluded within three
months were those that turned on elementary matters such as the
omission of a candidate from the ballot.

It is surely
reasonable to hope that Attahiru Jega’s INEC will be better organised
to avoid this blunder into which Iwu’s Commission fell (either by
design or by reason of a chronic inability to follow basic rules about
closure of nominations). But in 2007 most litigation arose, and is
likely to arise in 2011 from the long list of other things that go
wrong with Nigerian elections: fake or missing voters’ registers, fake
or missing voters, stuffed or seized ballot boxes and fake collation of
figures, to name just a few.

However much
confidence we may have in Jega’s integrity, the pressure of time means
that the scrutiny of both INEC permanent employees and its ad hoc staff
is likely to be less than thorough, opening the door to all manner of
electoral misbehaviour. No, I’m not one of those who imagine that Youth
Corpers (who won’t even have to stick around to see the results of
their misdeeds) constitute a silver bullet for election rigging.

If there had been
any faint hope that election petitions could be finished in three
months, it would have made more sense to put the presidential and
gubernatorial elections – which have the largest constituencies, i.e. a
bigger arena for election-rigging, and consequently a lot more
witnesses to call to prove it – first.

Several political
parties, fearing the ‘bandwagon’ effect, have complained that Jega’s
timetable favours the ruling Peoples Democratic Party. This concern is
not groundless, given the issue- and ideology-free nature of Nigerian
politics. But that is as much the fault of non-PDP parties as it is of
the ruling party. For example, in the past few days electricity workers
have challenged President Goodluck Jonathan’s roadmap for electricity,
while the Nigeria Labour Congress has threatened a general strike if
fuel prices are raised, but nobody need expect these issues to feature
much in the coming campaigns.

There have also
been complaints that the electoral timetable gives the PDP an ‘unfair
advantage’ because other parties now have to rush their candidate
selection processes and campaigns. But nothing stopped any party from
getting its act, coalition or mega-merger together long ago if they
felt that Nigeria was entering a peculiar space warp where time would
run more slowly for the PDP than it would for other parties.

The truth is that
the just-released timetable could be just as bad for the PDP against an
organised and committed opposition. But that would need an opposition
that does more than mimic meaningless campaigns of ‘mass’ rallies at
which empty slogans – We Go Win! – are shouted at party supporters.

Like Iwu before
him, Jega doesn’t seem particularly concerned about the views of
ordinary voters. We just have to comply with his agenda. And even if
you registered to vote in 2007, you will be disenfranchised if you
don’t present yourself for registration in Nigeria within a narrow
period of 14 days.

Jega’s INEC no
doubt consulted itself when settling the electoral timetable. But just
like its predecessor, there has been little indication of readiness to
accept contributions from ordinary voters, such as: “That fourteen-day
period will clash with haj …”. Once again it was: “We have decided
what’s best. We’re not interested in what you have to say. Just be
quiet, listen and obey.” Given how little time there is, one must try
to be charitable about this type of attitude. Still, it is to be hoped
that the dictates of time won’t turn our electoral process into one in
which we, the voters, feature only as a tiresome inconvenience.