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A vote scheduled for early next year will elect a president,
more than 30 governors and 469 members of the national legislature. Under an
informal power-sharing agreement in the dominant political party, the
presidency has alternated between the largely Muslim north and the mostly
Christian south.

But the death in office of President Umaru Yar’Adua, a Muslim
from the north, who succeeded Olusegun Obasanjo, a southern Christian, has
threatened the prevailing political arrangement. Furthermore, President
Jonathan has announced his intention to contest the upcoming election.

Nigeria’s international allies have tended to endorse the
north/south alternation as the glue that has held the country together. Former
U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria John Campbell in an article published in Foreign
Policy warned that the end of ‘a power-sharing arrangement’ between the Muslim
North and the Christian South, ‘could lead to post – election sectarian
violence, paralysis of the executive branch, and even a coup.” On the other
hand, many Nigerians are questioning whether the formula has become an excuse
for dividing the spoils of office among an elite, while the country’s economic
and social problems mount. Nasir el Rufai, former minister of the Federal
Capital Territory, argues this point in an article published on AllAfrica.com
earlier this year.

“Simplistic analysis of the reasons for Nigeria’s problems of
governance – that Christians are at odds with Muslims, the North with the South
– has distracted the world’s attention from what many Nigerians believe is the
principal threat facing our country: the disenfranchised youth, a government
that lacks competency and credibility and a sense of hopelessness and despair
about the future,” he said. “Nigeria needs a government accountable to its people.”
Another proponent of change is Nuhu Ribadu, a respected anti-corruption
crusader and former head of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission of
Nigeria. Last month he announced his intention to run for the presidency on the
Action Congress of Nigeria ticket. He hopes to model his campaign on an
Obama-like appeal to the nation’s youth, who comprise more than 65 percent of
the population.

Visiting Nigeria a year ago, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton backed the growing movement for reform. “Without good governance, no
amount of oil or no amount of aid, no amount of effort can guarantee Nigeria’s
success.” Good governance demands that Nigeria’s resources contribute to
general welfare. The nation’s allies should promote policies and programmes that
strengthen the voices for meaningful democracy. This “demand driven”
accountability – with its dividend of good governance – is vital to the future
of Nigeria.

How can that change come about, and what can the United States
do?

First, it can throw its support behind a free and fair election.
The United States should make it clear that it will not recognise a government
that emerges from a corrupted process, such as that of Nigeria in 2007, or
those in Kenya and Zimbabwe in 2008. The U.S. government can press the African
Union and the European Union to take similar positions.

Second, Nigeria’s voter roll must be tackled. A fair election
starts with the preparation of an accurate roll. Although Attahiru Jega, chair
of the Independent National Electoral Commission, seems truly committed to
holding a free and fair election, he is challenged by weak staff capacity. This
is why he is – correctly in our view – calling for the January vote to be
pushed as far back as April.

Third, technologies that utilise the millions of cell phones,
along with expanding Internet access, must be used, as has been done
effectively in other places. For example, the U.S. National Democratic
Institute helped to mobilise preliminary vote tabulation in Ghana through SMS
messaging. Kenya’s Ushahidi online crisis-response platform allows the
gathering and presentation of data via SMS, email or the web. A new Nigerian
initiative called Pay4me – a payment transaction via the Internet – could
permit a Nigerian to contribute to a political party, however small the amount.

Fourth, the U.S. Agency for International Development and the
Department for International Development of the United Kingdom should pay for
credible polling to be conducted at regular intervals preceding elections.
Polling allows the public to learn what their neighbours think about the
candidates, the parties and their platforms; helps parties gauge their strong
and weak areas; and can reduce challenges to the results.

Finally, support for civil society should be expanded and sustained.
Programmes should particularly target vulnerable populations, such as women and
girls. Voters need to understand what governments can do for them and what
citizens have a right to demand.

With economic growth so unevenly distributed and rage mounting
in areas like the oil-rich Niger Delta – whose militants claimed credit for the
independence-day bombings – Nigeria’s friends should reject the notion that the
status quo is synonymous with stability. We must ask the question – stability
on whose terms and at what cost?

Our bet should be placed with the people of Nigeria.

K. Riva Levinson is
Managing Director of KRL International, a consultancy dedicated to emerging
markets. Gregory Simpkins, is founder of the African Democracy Network and
currently advises the Leon H. Sullivan Foundation.