Nigeria Content Online

The international
community is closely watching Nigeria as the nation moves closer to
national elections. The international interest in free and fair
elections is not unexpected as Nigeria continues to embed democracy.
But the international community is becoming very concerned at the
emergence and spread of violence simultaneously in several regions of
the country. International travel warnings against travel to Nigeria
have been updated.

The recent
resurgence of violence in the North led by Boko Haram, a self professed
Al Qa’eda affiliate, coupled with killings and associated destruction
of property in the Middle Belt, have compounded a worrying development
of militia returning to the swamps of the Niger Delta.

In the Niger Delta,
gangs, undoubtedly well paid for their work, attacked a gathering of
supporters of Timi Alaibe outside his home in Opokuma community in
Baylesa State. Some of Alaibe’s supporters were murdered. Alaibe had
earlier narrowly missed death in an attempt on his life when his convoy
of vehicles was attacked on the road from Port Harcourt to Opokuma.
Ironically and almost unbelievably it is Alaibe that is the target of a
so-called arrest warrant over the incident, demonstrating that nothing,
no matter how ridiculous and repugnant is beyond those seeking to
derail Alaibe’s campaign.

It will be recalled
that Alaibe recently relinquished his appointment as President
Jonathan’s Adviser on the Niger Delta in order that he might contest
the elections. Alaibe missed out on the PDP ticket and is standing on a
Labour Party ticket for the governorship of Bayelsa State. As
presidential adviser Alaibe guided the amnesty process and
rehabilitation of the former militia but the process has begun to
falter since Alaibe’s departure.

Prior to the PDP
primaries that gave the nod to incumbent Bayelsa Governor Timi Sylva,
bombings disrupted the campaign of PDP Bayelsa governorship aspirant
Rufus-Spiff.

These very violent
election related acts compound a resurgence in Niger Delta violence as
the JTF launched operations to capture militants, led by John Togo, who
have spurned the amnesty and returned to the swamps to reinvigorate the
campaign previously led by MEND.

In the North, Boko
Haram is widening its activities and, like the gangs in the Niger Delta
some years ago, resorting to robbery to accumulate funds to purchase
weapons. MEND later began to rely on kidnapping as its major source of
funds. Boko Haram has until recently relied on funds from individual
patrons and sources outside Nigeria.

In the Middle Belt
there can be little doubt that the rising violence is connected with
events further north and designed to destabilise the government in
order to portray a federal government incapable of protecting its
citizens. Bombings, destruction of homes and places of worship are
heightening tension and testing the military’s ability to deploy and
maintain peace.

Escalating conflict
in each of the South, Middle Belt and the North regions is a scenario
that international analysts have long feared would plunge Nigeria into
disarray, result in a total breakdown in law and order and the collapse
of government.

Thus it was in this
context that the NSA, General Azazi (rtd.), addressed a range of groups
in London last week to provide a frank assessment of Nigeria’s security
situation.

Prior to the NSA’s
London meetings analysts were factoring in the possibility of a coup if
the situation further deteriorated. Azazi gave credible, frank
assessments that he was able to adequately defend when openly
questioned. As a former military commander and four star general
Azazi’s views on Nigeria’s security capabilities are more credible to
the international community than those of most Nigerian and foreign
politicians. Most people in the audiences revised their views to more
optimistic positions following Azazi’s addresses.

Christina
Katsouris, one of the most credible international oil analysts with
many years of experience commentating on Nigeria published her views on
the current situation in Nigeria in “Energy Compass” (www.
energyintel.com) “The most likely scenario is that Jonathan leads the
PDP to election victory, but with a smaller margin than secured by past
winners.” Katsouris was a little jaded about the Niger Delta where, she
said, “governors who have kept militants at bay with government cash
(may) prove unable to satisfy new gangs sprouting up to demand their
own handouts. This could promote a new round of attacks on the oil
sector and political instability, and further militarization in the
Niger Delta.” Overall, the NSA’s visit to London was well timed and
proved to inject factual, credible information into the market that can
have a significant effect on Nigeria’s ability to attract investment.
The challenge now before the government both federal and at state level
is to work together to ensure there is no escalation in conflict and
that existing flashpoints are dampened down to allow free and fair
elections; this of course means not only apprehending the gangs but
also their political godfathers and funders as in the recent case of
the arrest of one of the local financial backers of Boko Haram in
Maiduguri. No “Big Man” in Nigeria should believe he is immune from
apprehension.