Nigeria Content Online

The impending
collapse of Laurent Gbagbo’s regime will mark not just the end of that
country’s nightmare: it will signal the return of Nigeria as a voice
and a leader of Africa.

When Gbagbo and his
cronies declined last November to accept the results of an election in
which he was beaten by eight percentage points, the Jonathan
administration took a principled stand and has been out in front ever
since.

Foreign Minister
Odein Ajumogobia has worked assiduously behind the scenes and publicly
to shape the diplomatic environment, to isolate Gbagbo, to impose
sanctions, and to point him in the direction of the exit. The aim of
this was not just to respect democracy but to avoid the violence that
follows in an ethnically and religiously complicated society when it is
not honored.

This is no small
matter. In the world of international diplomacy, no censure of a state
or a leader is possible without the assent of the region. The Economic
Community of West African States (Ecowas), under the Chairmanship of
Goodluck Jonathan, recognized Allasane Ouattara on December 8, and
called on Gbagbo to honor the outcome of the electorate.

In early March,
after months of doomed mediation and wrangling as it battled to speak
with one voice, the African Union recognized Ouattara as the legitimate
winner of the election and endorsed a plan for him to set up a national
unity government.

On March 14
Ouatarra stopped in Abuja to meet with President Jonathan, the one
leader on the continent he chose to consult before heading back to
Abidjan for the home stretch.

On Wednesday night
the United Nations Security Council voted for Gbagbo’s removal and for
a freeze of all Gbagbo’s foreign assets. As in the other initiatives,
this was driven by Nigeria, this time in concert with France.

The longer that
Ggagbo has stayed on, toying with volatile ethnic and religious
sentiment, the more the prospect of massive bloodletting has risen and
the violence of Gbagbo’s end days are a grim testament to that.

Despite the
determination of the Gbagbo forces to fight to the bitter end, the
military push from the reconstituted Republican forces coupled with
economic and financial sanctions and steadily growing isolation – in
the teeth of vicious propaganda from the Gbagbo side – has made his
downfall inevitable.

And, while no-one
can celebrate the tragic killings currently underway in Abidjan and in
the west of the country, this will have been a victory for democrats in
Africa.

It contrasts and
counteracts places like Zimbabwe, where Robert Mugabe has lost election
after election and deployed horrific violence against his opponents,
but remains firmly in power.

The South African
Development Community (SADC) has pussy footed around Mugabe’s abuses
for years. Apart from never resolving the crisis, this sets a poor
example. Every bad loser of an election that gets away with using
violence and the instruments of state to stay in power encourages the
next one. The line in the sand that was drawn under Gbagbo is of
importance to more than Ivory Coast.

The firm leadership
and deft diplomacy that Nigeria has shown is desperately needed on this
continent. And Nigeria will have to continue to play a leadership role
as the international community assists the reconstruction of a
shattered Ivory Coast.

The AU represents a
number of often conflicting and competing states, and is at its best as
a mediator but it can no more take the lead than the European Union
can. As has been shown recently in Libya it is only states, like France
or the United Kingdom that can take the decisive steps, for better or
worse, that actually make a difference.

There was a time
when, for all their sins, Thabo Mbeki and Olusegun Obasanjo had a
broader vision for Africa and were taken seriously in the councils of
the world. But during the last four years there has been a vacuum in
pan-African leadership – unless one would use that word to describe
Moammer Ghaddafi who as Chair of the African Union spent his time
fantasizing about a United States of Africa (with its capital in Libya).

Nigeria has a long
and respectable reputation for peace keeping in Africa. But as everyone
knows, the brand has been tarnished by military rule, corruption and
the debacle of the 2007 election.

Nigeria under
President Umaru Yar ‘Adua took a backseat. A country of 150 million, a
model and a challenge of Muslim and Christian co-existence, a holder of
great strategic natural resources, the most populous country in Africa,
was not afforded a lot of respect.

Since taking office
last year, President Jonathan has turned that around – not with grand
gestures but rather by showing Nigeria as a responsible citizen of the
global community. Nigeria is building a case for a permanent seat on
the UN Security Council.

As a non-permanent
member of the UN Security Council, Nigeria voted to authorize the
action that potentially prevented the slaughter of thousands of people
in Libya. There are many who disagree with that position, and the armed
intervention that followed, but at least it was a position. Nigeria
stood up and was counted.

This is not to say
that Nigeria’s prominence in global forums should be dependent on its
remaining a reliable ally of the West. The country has to be judged on
its strategic and human importance, and its ability to give voice to a
billion Africans, especially on those issues that touch the continent.

To do that, Nigeria
needs to put its own house in order. The economic growth that is
forecast for the next few years, and that is forging a new and surging
middle class, must be accompanied by social provision for the poor and
the underclass. Nigeria cannot afford to be near the bottom of every
social indicator.

And an election
that is at the very least a marked improvement on 2007 is essential for
Nigeria to be able to defend democracy on the continent, as it has in
Ivory Coast.

Phillip van Niekerk is the former editor of South Africa’s Mail & Guardian newspaper.