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Since the bombings
of October 1st 2010 that disrupted the 50th anniversary celebrations,
many advocates of the Niger Delta amnesty programme have found a reason
to rethink their position.

The renewed threats
of the spokesperson of the Movement of Emancipation of the Niger Delta
(MEND) Mr. or is it Mrs. Gbomo Jomo in well circulated press releases
can easily lead one to a hasty conclusion. But there is a diversity of
views on this, just as there exist different narratives on how best to
approach the eradication of the conflict itself.

The Niger Delta
conflict has got multiple dimensions like an existential octopus –
environmental, economic, and political developmental and even strategic.
Many of us do recall how the agitations started in the 1990s and how
the hostilities grew gradually and took a new astronomical phase in
2006-2008. The conflict escalated leading to massive destruction of oil
installations, disruption of oil production, kidnapping of expatriate
oil workers (and later indigenous ones), lawlessness and criminality.

The national crude
oil production figures dropped drastically from almost two million
barrels per day to less than one million barrels per day. As a major oil
supplier in the Gulf of Guinea, the disruptions in Niger Delta
distorted global crude oil supplies. As a country that depends on crude
oil earnings for more than ninety percent of her foreign exchange,
budgetary deficits were starring Nigeria in the face.

It took the decisive
action by the Nigerian late President, Umaru Yar’ Adua to grant
unconditional amnesty to Niger Delta combatants who renounced militancy
and surrendered their arms late last summer. Looking at the figures, one
will say that the amnesty programme has been a modest success. Reports
from government indicate that oil export figures have improved from
800,000 barrels per day that it was during the hostilities in 2006-2008
to 2.3 million barrels per day in 2010. A majority of the militants have
dropped their arms and embraced amnesty – at least if the last Abuja
meetings with government were anything to go by. Kidnapping and hostage
taking has considerably reduced, at least, in the Niger Delta, though it
is in a rapid increase in the south east zone and other parts of the
country.

It is my view that
it is a remarkable achievement by the current administration in Abuja,
but many activists in the region still see it as a mere window dressing
and at best a treatment of the symptoms without a comprehensive
diagnosis and political will to decisively treat the systemic malady.

No one is under any
illusion that all the arms in the Niger Delta region have all, been
surrendered. The routes for oil theft from the Niger Delta are alleged
to be the same through which small arms and light weapons are still
being funneled into the creeks. An urgent and comprehensive mop up
operation is essential to ensure that any residual stockpiles of arms in
the Niger Delta communities are retrieved. Some pundits believe that a
United Nations assisted strategy may help as it did in Sierra Leone and
Liberia. Though the contextual issues might be different, the Nigerian
government can tap into the expertise, neutrality and professionalism of
the United Nations in future phases of the amnesty programme. This
programme as a matter of urgency must be insulated as much as possible
from the vagaries of politics and fortified with both official courage
and sincerity of purpose.

The repented
combatants who have undergone or are currently undergoing training must
be immediately re-absorbed in areas where they have capacity and
competence. A special fund should be set aside as start-up capital for
those who are willing to start small and medium enterprises in line with
what was agreed ab-initio.

The amnesty
programme must be seen by this administration as a quick win and a
recipe for long term institutional resolution of the conflict in the
Delta. A coordinated approach in collaboration with the Niger Delta
state governments and the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) will
reduce duplication of efforts and maximize available resources for
effectiveness.

The looming
eco-catastrophe in the Niger Delta region must be averted by a quick but
comprehensive remedial strategy; where those who contributed to the
pollution must be made to pay back as it is done in other parts of the
world with similar challenges. There is a complex web of issues and we
must adopt a listening culture to appreciate the how and where of their
interconnectedness.

We must generate
comprehensive baseline data to tell us exactly where we are and enable
us track progress. Pro-activeness must replace reactionary conduct,
which may be counter productive especially as the 2011 elections
approach.

Finally there is
consensus that the Niger Delta Technical Committee Report summarises the
yearnings and aspirations of the people of the Niger Delta region. The
same government that set up that committee must have the courage to
publish a White Paper on its findings and commence earnest
implementation of its recommendations.

Further inaction
will threaten our national prosperity, regional stability and energy
future. This amnesty programme must not fail! Uche Igwe is an Africa
Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Centre. He contributed this
piece from Washington DC, USA.