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Mallam Nuhu Ribadu,
presidential candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria, has published
a monograph on how he would lead Nigeria to a “new Nigeria”. It is
entitled “The Pathway to a New Nigeria.”

To those of us who
do not have the privilege of living in Nigeria, manifestos or
monographs published by Nigerian presidential aspirants give us a sense
of the philosophy and calibre of Nigeria’s potential rulers. Does Mr.
Ribadu’s pathway describe precisely a way for a new and better Nigeria
to emerge over the next few years?

The contours of a
new and better Nigeria seem self-evident. First, it should have the
reputation of being the most honest African country. Second most potent
sign of a new Nigeria would be a prosperous agricultural sector. Third
would be plentiful power supply and an excellent transport
infrastructure. Finally, youth unemployment would be low and personal
disposable income of Nigerians would be high. High disposable income,
implies, a well educated and healthy Nigerian populace sheltered in
modern urban housing.

Let me attempt some
quantification of the self-evident. According to estimates from
Euromonitor and Business Monitor, Nigeria’s nominal 2010 gross domestic
product (GDP) was around 260 billion dollars. Annual disposable income,
which is what we keep in our pockets, was 116 billion dollars or 45% of
its 2010 GDP. I estimate Nigeria’s population to be 160 million. Thus,
Nigeria’s per capita GDP was $1,625, of which only $725 per capita was
available for personal consumption and saving. Ordinary Nigerians will
feel a “new Nigeria” if both the share of Nigeria’s real gross domestic
product converted into disposable income rises from 45% to at least 55%
and Nigeria’s economy flies at an annual rate of 8%. Then, by 2016, per
capita GDP would be $2,579 and per capita disposable income would have
almost doubled to $1,418.

A doubling of disposable income in 5 years is my new and better Nigeria.

Mr. Ribadu’s
pathway proposes that a “people, process and equipment model” be
“adopted to reintroduce efficiency to primary health care”. Six new
super specialist hospitals focusing on the heart, kidney, cancer,
children, women, and neurosurgery are to be constructed in the six
geopolitical zones of Nigeria. He promises to increase Nigeria’s
federal educational expenditure to 26% of the national budget.

One striking policy
is the injection of “Western education” into the Sangaya system of
education. He also proposes a primary and secondary school commission
to regulate primary and secondary schools and improve the shockingly
low performance of Nigerian students.

Mandatory social
security for all Nigerians will be enacted. Mr. Ribadu seeks fiscal
prudence. Therefore, he intends to reduce the national deficit from 6%
of GDP to the 3% of GDP level maintained between 2003 and 2007.
Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves are to be rebuilt from its current
$38 billion to at least $50 billion.

In the area of
governance, Mr. Ribadu urges the conduct of free, fair, and credible
elections as a way of combating corruption because they force public
office holders to be accountable to Nigerian voters.

The Niger Delta’s
problems are to be tackled by, among other policies, employing
competent and knowledgeable officials in the Niger Delta Commission.
The power supply deficits are to be addressed through the use of
coal-fuelled power plants. His goal is to “stabilise power generation,
transmission and distribution in the shortest possible time.” Private
railway operators will be allowed to use government owned railway
tracks. All gaps in the food chain are to receive “appropriate
attention” and farmers are to get grants and loans.

Mr. Ribadu’s
manifesto is full of good intentions! But, I doubt it will lead to my
new Nigeria anytime soon. It has too few measurable commitments.

How can we agree on
what constitutes “the shortest possible time” for stabilising “power
generation”? Impossible! Promising aid and finance to farmers is simply
not a policy for raising agricultural productivity, a prerequisite for
a prosperous rural sector. No discussion of irrigation schemes,
lowering the cost of fertilisers, or introducing improved seeds. How
exactly does a “people, process and equipment model” improve primary
care efficiency? I have no idea.

Yet, the pathway
has one quiet virtue: its call for the conduct of free and fair
elections. They are long overdue. Without them, the old Nigeria lives.
A Ribadu pathway to honest elections will open the gates to a new
Nigeria. Sadly, it fails to delineate a way to a better Nigeria.