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Thirty-nine years and 1 day after Colonel
Acheampong sent Dr. Kofi Abrefa Busia into exile from Ghana by staging
a military coup on January 13, 1972, former President Zine el-Abidene
Ben Ali of Tunisia and his family fled Tunisia. Mr. Ali had been
overthrown by a wave of mass civilian demonstrations, which led to
General Rachid Ammar and the Tunisian military withdrawing its support
for the continued existence of his regime.

I visited Tunis for the first time in November
2010. This centre of the “Jasmine Revolution” had impressed me as a
modern modest metropolis and, judging by attire, a city of liberated
womenfolk. I had also been struck, though, by the ubiquitous presence
of policemen.

Yes, the fear was palpable in tiny gestures-my
taxi driver who would tap down my hands when I would point at the
American Embassy or even the street leading up to the presidential
palace. Tunis seemed one of the cleaner and more orderly cities in
Africa, seemingly under perpetual construction. In fact, the 2010
Ibrahim Index of African Governance ranked Tunisia as the 8th best
governed state in Africa, one spot behind Ghana, one spot ahead of
Egypt and twenty-eight spots ahead of Nigeria.

How could its regime be overthrown so swiftly?
Does Mr. Ali’s loss of power herald an outbreak of fruit and flower
named revolutions in Africa, akin to those of Eastern Europe?

The Ibrahim Index calculates the overall quality
of a country’s institutions for governing the daily lives of its
residents by comparing their records in four spheres of life: safety
and the rule of law; participation and human rights; sustainable
economic opportunity; and human development. The ideal African country
evidences its human development by possessing a well educated and
healthy population, is blessed with a competitive economic landscape in
which private businesses grow with minimal administrative hassle, has
an electoral system in which its citizens are able to organise to
change their rulers with minimal surveillance, and individuals do not
have to fear for their safety or suffer unequal treatment by the courts
or governmental agencies.

Tunisia scored 35th for participation and human
rights, compared to Cote d’Ivoire’s 46th , Egypt’s 39th, Nigeria’s
33rd, Ghana’s 6th, and South Africa’s 3rd standing. It ranked 15th in
the category of safety and rule of law, compared to a rank of 6th for
Ghana, 7th for South Africa, 11th for Egypt, 38th for Nigeria, and 48th
for Cote d’Ivoire.

Sustainable economy opportunity is a strong
category for Tunisia. It has the 5th best economic opportunity in
Africa, versus 6th for Egypt, 7th for South Africa, 12th for Ghana,
33rd for Nigeria, and 38th for Cote d’Ivoire. Best of all is its
ranking in the field of human development. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation
places Tunisia as the 3rd best African country in the realm of human
development, one position ahead of Mauritius, three and five positions
ahead, respectively, of South Africa and Egypt, nine spots ahead of
Ghana in 12th position, with Nigeria clocking in for the 32nd rank and
Cote d’Ivoire, once again, sauntering to the 38th spot.

The juxtaposition of a low score for political
participation and high scores for economic opportunity and human
development is a warning to those who believe that human beings are
content with a fine education, good jobs and not much else. It is a
slow burning catalyst for political upheaval. Yet, the Ibrahim Index
provides heartening news for despots.

Toughness, backed by unflinching military support,
can smother popular uprisings and unrest in the short run. Indeed, it
can defy democracy itself. Cote d’Ivoire rejected its former president
in democratic elections in November 2010, a few weeks before Muhammad
Bouzid immolated himself in a petrol fuelled blaze in Sidi Bouzid. Mr.
Laurent Gbagbo remains in power; Mr. Ali is in asylum.

Why?

The Ivorien military stands ready to kill its own
citizens; the Tunisian army refused to shoot its own people. Beyond a
year, it seems that despots can remain in power only by stamping the
lives of their subjects with poverty and misery. Many African leaders
seem to have discovered this path to political eternity. Ordinary
Africans must resist rolling down that path.

What are the lessons of Tunis? Somehow, prosperity
and political freedom must grow in tandem, not one ahead of the other.
Egyptian peace is fragile. Nigeria should become more peaceful and
prosperous if its politics becomes cleaner and cheaper. Which Nigerian
leader best embodies a clean and cheap politics?