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As the drums of electoral war echo across the
land, amidst barely concealed preparations for victory celebrations, some
provisions in the electoral act have game-changing potentials capable of
throwing the elections wide open – thanks in part to ‘accidents’ like the
emergence of Attahiru Jega as INEC chair and the passage of the Electoral Act
2010.

For legislators better known for drawing huge,
illegal and unearned allowances and little else, the enactment of the Electoral
Act 2010 is an unusual achievement. The Act contains provisions which
substantially change the rules of future political competition. It also
restructures engagements among political actors, parties and umpires in several
ways.

By legislating that 21-day notices must be
given to INEC by every political party prior to primaries, congresses and
conventions – without the flexibility of a waiver by INEC, many parties stand
the risk of disqualification from participating in the 2011 Elections unless
strict compliance is observed. For instance, a political party wishing to
select its candidates through indirect primaries must notify INEC of this by
Sept. 18, 2010. The latest date for a party opting for direct primaries appears
to be Oct. 2. I wonder if the parties have noticed this requirement.

This notice is required because the new rules
also require every political party that adopts the indirect primaries system of
candidate selection to amend its constitution to incorporate the rules and
procedures for the emergence of delegates and the conduct of the primaries.
This in turn may require a special convention and the required 21 days notice
to INEC.

The PDP for instance just recently publicised
its guidelines, but did not announce when it would hold the national, emergency
or special convention to incorporate the guidelines into the PDP Constitution.
With respect to the almighty PDP, the adoption of the guidelines by its
national executive is not enough. A constitutional amendment is required which
means an emergency convention, at least, must be held 21 days or more from now.

The Act prohibits many of the shenanigans of
the past, like appointing hundreds of special assistants and making them
automatic delegates. Also barred are consensus candidates, delegates sponsored
by godfathers without primaries, and the last-minute replacement of candidates.
Henceforth, even unopposed aspirants must go through a yes-no vote in
primaries. Last minute replacement of those that contested primaries by
strangers that never participated is now illegal.

By far the most interesting provision relates
to the procedure for the emergence of the presidential and gubernatorial
candidates of political parties. Candidate selection will now take in 37
separate special conventions in each of the 36 states and Abuja, with a
national convention for ratification of the winner ­ with the highest number of
votes. With this requirement, the supporters of President Goodluck Jonathan
must persuade delegates to vote for him in disparate locations ­ mostly away
from Abuja.

With the tone of the arguments for and against
zoning, I do not see how the president can prevail in more than one or two out
of the 19 northern states. How the Goodluck team and some media outlets are
already declaring victory and expecting his coronation in the upcoming PDP
primaries remain a mystery to many unless he faces several candidates from that
geographical zone.

The same risk to incumbents applies to the
governors who will emerge from special congresses in each local government of
their respective states.

Without the delegate selections held in one
central location, for persuasion, bribery and intimidation as appropriate, how
they ultimately vote is truly difficult to control by the once-invincible
governors!

For the indirect primaries, the winner that
emerges in the congresses and conventions does not require a majority of half
of the votes plus one ­ but simply the highest number of votes cast. This
provision means no run-offs will ever be necessary as the first past the post
wins. I was therefore amused to see provisions for run-off in the published
guidelines of one of the political parties ­ the PDP.

The Act has also legislated the order of elections
to put the governors at a disadvantage. The attrition rate in the National
Assembly has been high ­ averaging 80% in each electoral cycle. As an example,
in my home state of Kaduna, only one member, Ado Audu Dogo, has been in the
House of Representatives since 1999! By scheduling their elections first, and
the governors last, the legislators have extracted their revenge and hope to
reduce the manipulation their elections have suffered due to gubernatorial
interference.

In the event a political party adopts the
direct primaries system, party members must be given equal opportunity to vote
directly for the candidates to various offices ­ without the need to elect
delegates. This further devolves power away from party apparatchiks to the
membership and cuts the delegate middleman. It is doubtful if any party will
choose this as it completely eliminates the control of outcomes of primaries
from the leaders of the various parties. Clearly, a direct primaries system is
the better, more democratic system that will be more prevalent in the long run.

So for those planning victory laps before the
race proper, it may be helpful to read the Electoral Act again.

El-Rufai is a former
minister of the FCT and a member of the PDP