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The imperativeness
of a change of guard in the House of Representatives is gradually
emerging. The crashing out of the Speaker of the House, Dimeji Bankole
in the recent national assembly elections in his native Ogun State has
made it certain that the lower legislative chamber will be led by a new
set of leaders.

Mr Bankole, who ran
on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), lost in his bid
to return to the House to a relatively unknown candidate of the Action
Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

His deputy, Usman
Bayero Nafada who had earlier indicated his intention not to return for
the third time to the lower legislative chamber, had wanted to contest
the gubernatorial elections in that state, but withdrew at the
primaries when it became obvious that he wasn’t going to secure the
ticket.

Interestingly, the
Senate President, David Mark and his deputy, Ike Ekweremadu, won their
elections to return to the federal parliament.

The two positions
had been zoned by the PDP, which enjoyed majority in the House, to the
South West and North East geo-political zones, respectively.

Now that it is
clear that both Messrs Bankole and Nafada are not returning, the House
will be getting a new leadership from early June when the seventh
session of the National Assembly will be inaugurated.

However, the emergence of the leadership, like that of the Senate, will be determined by a number of factors.

Zoning policy

First is the policy
of zoning and rotation of offices adopted by the PDP. Between 1999 and
2003, the party zoned the presidency to the South West and the North
East, respectively. It also zoned the Senate President and Speaker of
the House to the South East and North West, respectively. The deputy
senate president and the deputy speaker were produced by the North
Central and South-South.

But in 2007, the
North West produced the president while the South-South produced the
vice. Similarly, the senate presidency went to the North Central, while
the South West produced the speaker while their deputies came from the
South East and North East, respectively. Although the PDP went into
these elections with the controversy over zoning of the presidency
still raging, it is not impossible that the leadership offices of the
federal legislature would be rotated among the different zones. At the
peak of the zoning controversy, Mr Jonathan alluded to the fact that as
spelt out in Section 7.2c of the PDP constitution, after the emergence
of the president and the vice president, the other key offices would be
zoned.

There is therefore
the likelihood that the offices of the presiding officers of the Senate
and the House will be re-zoned. In fact, it is almost certain that the
South West will not produce the next speaker due to the performance of
the PDP in the zone during the last parliamentary polls.

Earlier, the
decision by Messrs David Mark, Ike Ekweremadu and Bankole to re-contest
had thrown up a debate whether they would retain their positions in the
coming dispensation or become ordinary members in both chambers.

Ranking

Closely related to
that is the ranking factor. The issue of ranking became a major factor
in the emergence of the principal officers of the national assembly in
2003. In that year, lawmakers that served between 1999 and 2003 felt
that, as seniors, they should be the only ones to be considered for the
leadership positions in both chambers since those just coming in did
not have cognate experience.

Although elections
are yet to be conducted in 15 senatorial districts and over 40 federal
constituencies, it appears many of the serving lawmakers will not be
returning. So far, only about five members of the House from South West
succeeded in their bid to return. Assuming therefore that the position
of speakership is retained in the South West, the returnees likely to
jostle for the position are Ajibola Muraina and Adeniyi Busari both of
who are from Oyo State.

Those who would
have challenged Mr Bankole effectively for that position are not
returning. They include Wole Oke (Osun) chairman of defence committee
and Dave Salako (Ogun) chairman of communications committee.

If it is zoned to
the South East, the incumbent chief whip of the house, Emeka Ihedioha
may be a strong contender. Mr Ihedioha, who is coming for the third
time represents Ezihinitte/Mbaise federal constituency of Imo State. He
may be challenged by his predecessor in that position, Bethel Amadi,
also from Imo State. There are also Ogbuefi Ozomgbachi, chairman of
banking and currency committee and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, chairman of marine
transport committee, both from Enugu State.

If the position
goes to the North East, Yakubu Dogara, former chairman of the committee
on commerce from Bauchi State, will be a strong contender. He may be
challenged by Anthony Madwatte, a Christian from Adamawa State. If it
is zoned to the North Central, it will be a major fight among the
lawmakers from there because the zone is a stronghold of the PDP.

Presidential influence

Yet, the
personality of the president may also be a deciding factor on who
occupies which office in the National Assembly. In 2007, the PDP had
planned that the South East would produce the Speaker while the North
Central produce the Senate President. But in the build-up to the
inauguration of the legislature, former President Olusegun Obasanjo,
demanded that the speakership should not only go to his home zone,
South West but should be occupied by Ms Etteh, from Osun State.

In any case, all
these calculations and projections will depend on if the PDP is going
into any working alliance with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

Mr Jonathan who is
the candidate of the PDP was reported to have met with leaders of the
ACN, including Bola Tinubu recently during which he dangled some
carrots, as it were, before him. If both parties have a breakthrough in
their talks, analysts say it may result in the South West, the
stronghold of the ACN, producing the Senate President akin to the
NPN/NPP arrangement in the second republic. But the renewed alliance
talks between the ACN and Muhammadu Buhari’s Congress for Progressive
Change (CPC) ahead of Saturday’s presidential poll may endanger that
possibility.