Nigeria Content Online

A visit to any of the northern states in recent months will have
revealed a slew of campaign posters and billboards. Amongst them can be found
those which bear no party colours or candidate picture; instead, there are
inscribed with three Hausa phrases; Kasan Ku, Alladun Ku and Adinin Ku.
Translated, they mean, ‘Your land, your culture and your religion.’ The
proliferation of the posters indicates the sort of uphill task Goodluck
Jonathan faces if he is to capture northern hearts.

From a political standpoint, the northern opposition to
President Jonathan’s aspirations has already created an unlikely alliance in
Ibrahim Babangida and Atiku Abubakar. When Bukola Saraki threw his hat into the
ring earlier this week and with Aliyu Gusau waiting in the wings, it became
clear that Mr Jonathan faces a four-pronged threat in the primaries.

On Friday, the four leading northern PDP candidates gave the
clearest indication yet that they might be joining forces against Mr Jonathan.
The consensus candidate is likely to be the individual who has amassed the most
support in the run-in to the presidential primaries.

Mr Jonathan has already made some significant inroads in the war
against zoning. In July, he received a small fillip after seven out of the 17
northern governors voted against the issue. Although they were in the minority,
it gave the president a springboard to work with. He has since rewarded three
of them by asking them to co-ordinate his campaign in the north-central,
north-west and north-east geopolitical zones. Incidentally, one of the
appointed governors, Ibrahim Shema of Katsina, originally voted in support of
zoning in the July summit. The other two, Gabriel Suswam of Benue and Isa
Yuguda of Bauchi, have been tasked with generating support in the north-central
and north-east respectively.

The north-central in particular will be a huge challenge for the
President. The governors of Niger State and Kwara are immediately in
opposition. Aliyu Babangida, in spite of reports saying that he was undecided,
is likely to stick with Mr Babangida. In Kogi State, Ibrahim Idris, is
seemingly preoccupied with other matters, chief of which is to elongate his
tenure. Benue, Plateau and Nasarawa can be considered ‘safe’ for now, but Mr
Saraki has been specifically selected to split votes in the middle-belt and
amongst minorities.

In the north-east, Mr Abubakar will seek to repel Isa Yuguda’s
charge of Goodluck Jonathan support. The governors of Borno, Gombe and Yobe are
resilient on their pro-zoning stance. In Adamawa, Murtala Nyako ostensibly is
not backing Mr Abubakar but the former vice-president has enough delegate
support for that to be inconsequential.

The strongest opposition to Mr Jonathan undoubtedly comes from
the north-west zone. Aside from Katsina, and Kaduna, where the vice-president
was plucked from, the governors of Kano, Kebbi, Sokoto, Jigawa and Zamfara will
take some convincing.

Kano’s case throws up an interesting conundrum. The governor,
Ibrahim Shekarau, belongs to the ANPP, yet there are two main PDP factions
within the state, only one of which claims they will support Mr Jonathan.

Waning influence?

The influence of the governors themselves in anointing a
president may not be so important in the preliminary voting. Two things have
happened recently that indicate this.

Firstly, the governors have succeeded in switching the order of
the PDP primaries which works to the detriment of the president. The National
Executive Council of the party announced on Wednesday that the presidential
primaries will now be held last. What this means is that rather than governors
relying on presidential support for delegate votes, this has now been reversed.

Secondly, the abolition of automatic delegates means that governors have far
less control within their states over who the vote should swing to.
Traditionally, a state governor could sway up to 70 per cent of delegate voting
within his state but this is no longer the case. According to the new law, all
delegates who will vote in the primaries must be directly elected by party
members. In other words, the farcical tradition of governors appointing
thousands of special assistants in the prelude to an election will be avoided.