Nigeria Content Online

Votes from last
Saturday’s aborted national assembly elections indicate that the
People’s Democratic Party (PDP) will probably lose elections across the
North and the Southwest.

According to
investigations by NEXT, even in such PDP strongholds like Kaduna,
Nasarawa, Jigawa, Bauchi, Gombe and Zamfara States, the ruling party
was behind the opposition parties of All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP),
Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and the Congress for Progressive
Change (CPC) in votes cast.

Voting was
concluded in many places where news that the election had been
cancelled did not reach the polling units on time. In many instances,
electoral officers in villages refused to stop the process, claiming
that they had no official notice to that effect. Party agents and
voters were thus able to note the number of votes cast and the voting
trend.

A former senator
from one of these states, who preferred not to be named said, “It was a
shock, really. In Nasarawa, CPC was first, ACN was second and ANPP came
third. PDP was fourth in all the centres. In Gombe, CPC, ACN and ANPP
were first, second, third while the PDP constantly maintained the
fourth position. In Zamfara, ACN and ANPP were first and second across
the senatorial zones while PDP constantly came third.”

The Intra Party
Advisory council had, in a statement signed by its chairman, Osita
Okereke, claimed that 16 million Nigerians voted before the election
was cancelled. INEC, however, would not confirm the igures. According
to the spokesperson to the commission’s chair, Kayode Idowu, “There
were no elections, so there could not have been votes counted.”

No home advantage

In Kaduna, the home
state of Vice President Namadi Sambo, which has a registered voting
population of more than four million people, sources said the PDP was
already losing the polls in Tudunwada and parts of Zaria before the
election was called off. “The vice president had earlier noted that
there was no hope for him at the regular polling unit in Kabala West
and directed that a new voting centre be opened for him at a nearby
mosque, called Camp Road,” said a nearby resident. “But that one did
not help him. The Imam made it a point during the five daily prayers to
stress the need to choose a better government.” Sources said that the
party had become so unpopular that when Mr. Sambo came for his
verification exercise, not one person went over to greet him.

“He was in that
queue for a while and when he finished he left. There was none of that
clamour to greet the big man. We were sure he would lose his ward,” the
resident added.

It is not clear if
Mr. Sambo was, indeed losing in his ward. But there is some evidence
that the party had a poor showing. One of the voters at Sabongari,
Zaria, who claimed to have witnessed the vote count and does not want
his name in print, said in his unit only three people voted for the PDP
out of a total vote cast of 60.

Mr. Sambo is being
relied upon to use his influence as vice president to deliver the
state, which has the third largest voting population, to the PDP.

Rethinking strategy

“PDP is finished
politically and they will lose woefully in Kaduna State and the whole
of the north because people are tired of the PDP,” said Hassan Mohammed
Jallo, a lawyer and political analyst.

Mr Sambo recently
relocated to Kaduna where he has held series of meetings since Monday
with party officials across the state. But there are doubts on his
ability to change the voting trend noted at last week’s cancelled polls.

“PDP will have to
pay the price for jettisoning zoning,” said Mr Jallo who is a supporter
of former military president Ibrahim Babangida.

In Kano State,
which has the second largest voting population after Lagos, the PDP
seemed to have held its own against the ruling ACN and CPC in the
villages where the election did hold. According to our source, although
the PDP may do well in the parliamentary election, the CPC is more
likely to win the state.

Mr Sambo reportedly
met with PDP governors, including the chairman of the northern
governors’ forum and governor of Niger State, Muazu Babangida Aliyu to
re-strategize on the polls.

When contacted, the PDP spokesperson, Rufai Ahmed Alkali said, “It
is not useful to go into speculation on an election that has already
been cancelled. Whatever happened last week is a foregone issue. We
want all our members to focus their minds on tomorrow’s election.”