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Sub-Sahara Africa’s largest nation in terms of land mass could
split into two today as expected. The south’s independence referendum was
guaranteed in a 2005 peace deal ending a civil war fuelled by oil, religion and
ethnicity between the north and south, which killed at least two million people
and destabilised much of the region. The north is predominantly dominated by
black Arabs while the south has Christians and animists as its indigenes.

Nearly four million southerners have registered to take part in
the vote to with more emigrating from the North as the vote for separation is
seen as a foregone conclusion. The expected secession takes effect on July 9.

The Sudanese President, Omar Hassan al-Bashir last week on his
final trip to Juba-the capital of the new country offered a hand of peace to
the southerners.

Mr Al Bashir seemed to accept that his nation will split in two
after the referendum and his visit was seen as allaying fears that the northern
government will refuse to let go of the south — which has 70 percent of
Sudan’s oil output. With fears that the referendum could lead to another war,
the leader said he will join in the south’s independence celebrations.

“The preferred choice for us is unity but in the end we will
respect the choice of the southern citizens,” Mr Al Bashir said in a speech to
southern officials. “One would be sad that Sudan has split but also pleased
because we witnessed peace.” Accepting that the result is likely to be
secession,

Mr Al Bashir said he would come and join in the celebrations
after the vote. “Even after the southern state is born, we are ready in the
Khartoum government to offer any technical or logistical support and training
or advice — we are ready to help.” The president was greeted by hundreds of
southerners who chanted “no to unity” and waved signs that read “respect our
decision.” The north’s dominant National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan
People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the biggest party in the south,
strengthened their already strong grips on their respective halves of the
country with overwhelming victories in April elections. Mr Al Bashir is the
only sitting head of state to be wanted by the International Criminal Court,
which accuses him of masterminding war crimes and genocide in a separate
conflict in Darfur.

New confrontations

Key issues remain unresolved as fierce rounds of negotiations
are expected to follow on post referendum arrangements, with oil sharing, a
disputed border and citizenship at the top of the agenda with fears that if
mishandled, this vote could destabilise the whole region.

But many fear conflict may still ignite around the fate of the
disputed oil-rich Abyei region, claimed by both sides and with its own
referendum on whether to join the south or north unlikely to happen at all.
Anti-northern sentiment runs deep in the south where the oils from the Abyei
fields are refined.

Also fighting between the government and rebels from the western
Darfur region has picked up and spread to neighbouring Kordofan region,
spilling over into the south. Khartoum declared the only Darfur rebel group it
signed a peace deal with, a military target and began fighting it alongside
other insurgents. Peace talks in Qatar did not yield good results and Mr Bashir
says the government will not be negotiating in 2011 other than with those
inside Darfur itself, warning that anyone carrying arms will be dealt with
decisively. Tensions are rising between the two militaries as the Darfur’s
fighting moves closer to the south and it has the potential to disrupt the
referendum.

South Sudan, a state of
emergency

Despite the optimism on the birth of the new nation, relief
groups have warned that South Sudan’s weak fledgling administration could be
overwhelmed by people returning home to the newly independent state,
threatening to cause conflict unless more aid is provided.

Millions of southerners fled north to escape fighting during the
decades of conflict. Ahead of the vote, tens of thousands have already sold up
in the north and made the difficult return journey south, drawn by promises of
a better life and driven by fears about their citizenship rights in a divided
Sudan. Hundreds of thousands more are expected to join them before the expected
secession in July. U.S.-based International Relief and Development agency has
warned that they will arrive in a war-scarred south without infrastructure,
healthcare, housing, jobs and often even food. The newcomers, who speak Arabic
rather than southern languages, will lack farming knowledge and will want land
allocated to them.

According to Richard Owens of International Relief and
Development agency “those issues will continue to build causes of conflict that
we want to avoid out there.” “There aren’t enough resources and the
institutional capacity of the Government of South Sudan at the state, county
and below level is not there and we think there needs to be a lot of emphasis
put on assistance at the village level and tribal leadership level to help
them.” Relief advocacy group, Refugees International said in a report that
South Sudan was “already in a state of emergency due to extreme flooding,
ongoing inter-tribal conflicts, and overall low state capacity.”

“Some returnees may ultimately migrate back to city centres,
since communities in the south and border areas are ill-equipped to accommodate
new arrivals and provide basic services,” it said. “It is important that
humanitarian organisations establish a presence in remote areas of south Sudan
and maintain a critical mass in staffing.” South Sudan’s government —
dominated by former guerrilla fighters — faces a task building a country and
extending its authority over rural areas plagued by deadly tribal clashes, food
shortages and devastating floods.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson, the Obama
administration’s top diplomat for Africa, has said that Washington would help
the new nation “succeed, get on its feet and move forward successfully,
economically and politically.” “We think that it will reflect the will of the
people, that it will occur on time, peacefully and in a well organised manner,”
Mr Carson told reporters. He said the United States is ready to help south
Sudan to achieve full independence, a tantalising prospect for an impoverished
and landlocked region that is one of Africa’s budding oil producers.

The United States has led pressure on the Khartoum government of
President Al-Bashir not to impede the secession vote. Mr Carson said Washington
was “extraordinarily pleased” by Mr Al Bashir’s statements on a trip to the
south Sudan capital of Juba that Khartoum is ready to let the south go.