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North Korean
leader, Kim Jong II, headed to Beijing by train on Tuesday to talk to
Chinese leaders about economic reforms and a return to nuclear
disarmament negotiations, but any bold move is unlikely.

Reclusive Kim’s
last visit to China in 2006 brought effusive promises of economic
cooperation between the two neighbours, as well as broad vows from the
North Korean leader to seek progress towards “denuclearisation.” There
have been few signs of either.

Neither Beijing nor
Pyongyang has confirmed Kim’s latest trip abroad, but there was little
doubt the short, frizzy-haired leader entered China on Monday, staying
in Dalian, a northeastern port promoted as a showcase of market reforms.

A train that
resembled plane-shy Kim’s chosen transportation then left a city
station early on Tuesday evening and a source with ties to China’s
leadership said he was going to Beijing for talks with President Hu
Jintao and other officials.

North Korea is keen
to learn from China’s success but any changes would be “gradual,” said
the source, who declined to be named because the visit is politically
sensitive.

China will also urge a return to six-party talks on nuclear disarmament that Pyongyang has boycotted for over a year.

Economic concerns

But Zhang Liangui, an expert on North Korea at the Central Party School in Beijing, said that the economy is the key.

“I think the North
Korean leader will be most concerned about economic relations, because
the domestic economy there is in trouble,” Zhang said.

Chinese Foreign
Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu refused to confirm or comment on the
trip, saying only that “China and North Korea have a tradition of
high-level mutual visits.”

The choice of
Dalian, with its foreign companies and industrial parks, showed that
Beijing wants to nudge Kim to grapple with his feeble economy, said
Zhang.

A South Korean
official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Kim, who left
his a Dalian hotel in a motorcade of limousines, mini-buses and
security escorts, visited a dock facility near Dalian.

A mismanaged
currency re-denomination last year paralysed much of North Korea’s
nascent private business and sent shivers of unrest through the brittle
economy.

“China hopes that
Kim will learn from it, but North Korea doesn’t think that way,” said
Zhang, citing Pyongyang’s adherence to a doctrine of “juche” or
self-reliance.

“It would be childish to expect that Kim Jong II will change his mind because he has visited a few projects.”

China is a crucial
economic and political backer of its smaller neighbour, which it fears
could become a dire burden if 68-year-old Kim’s regime falls apart and
spills refugees into northeast China.

In 2009, trade between China and North Korea, which has an estimated
GDP of $17 billion (11.2 billion pounds), was worth $2.7 billion.