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The variance
between statistics given by finance organisations and the Nigerian
Bureau of Statistics is fast causing ripples between the organisation
and analysts.

Finance analysts
say the figures given by the Bureau of statistics do not tally with the
realities of state of the Nigerian economy.

Bismarck Rewane, an
economist and Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company, an
investment finance firm said, “The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, NBS
says the economy has grown by 7 per cent in Quarter 1 2010. If we are
going by 7 per cent, there should be some prosperity, everybody should
feel it, but most people we have spoken to are not feeling it. So we
are saying that there is a variance. Petrol consumption was flat;
cheques cleared were flat, so where is the growth coming from? When we
argued this, they said, No and even suggested it was a criminal offence
to disagree with them.”

“Analysts should not be confined to a certain or limited source of data. They should be free.”

The question of the
verification of data issued by the nation’s bureau of statistics came
to light again after analysts questioned and doubted the estimates of a
7.28 per cent growth in Q1, 2010.

“The proxies were divergent and did not validate the growth numbers. Prosperity cannot be disguised” he said.

Victor Ndukauba, an
investment research analyst for Afrinvest West Africa the firm
considers a number of data sources when drawing forecast.

“We have a number
of sources when it comes to getting data that relates to the nation’s
economy. The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics should be at the top of that
list, we get data from the Central Bank, and we try to balance this up
with other sources, the World Bank, and others. The sources of data we
use and place emphasis on usually depend on what issue we are looking
at in particular”.

“When it comes to
GDP, what we tend to do is to sometimes look at the various sources,
sometimes, three sources and then check for a mid-line, an average. I
think the reason why everyone is cautioning the bureau is particularly
about the 7 per cent growth they issued for the first quarter of the
year. The argument is where did the growth come from, given the fact
that banks books shrank especially in the last two quarters last year,
with the credit shrinking challenges?”.

However, he says the NBS figure should not be totally ruled out given the peculiar state of the nation.

“If one was to sit
back, you would see that it’s actually possible the economy did grow by
that much. I think higher oil prices and more stable oil production
might have helped buffer that growth. The argument is that people have
not been affected by the level of the said growth. The economy may be
growing indeed but there’s so much money being spent, especially by the
government and only a select few may feel the impact of such growth,”
he said.

The Bureau’s warning

In a publication
issued recently, the Bureau of statistics warned analysts to note that
the Bureau is the authorised custodian of Nigerian official statistics,
noting “with dismay the behaviour of some senior citizen and
respectable corporate bodies”.

It threatened to
invoke the relevant sections of the enabling law, the Statistics Act of
2007, which empowers it to prosecute anyone who releases data at
variance with official statistics produced by the NBS.

“Is it a crime to
question data? An objection is a request for further information,” Mr
Rewane said while presenting the August edition of Financial
derivatives Company’s Monthly Economic News and Views, adding that
Nigeria in 2010 is not a police state and that analysts can disagree
with published data as the Act does not empower the NBS to prosecute
persons who release data at variance with it.

Meeting expectations?

Mr Rewane added
that empirical evidence of data divergence exists as the EIU, IMF,
World Bank and AFDB have released data at variance with NBS over the
years.

Confirming the
publication warning finance organisations to be cautious of using data
which vary from the one issued by the organisation, Leo Sanni, a
contact officer at the Bureau said. “We are the only body authorised to
issue statistics as regards the country. We have all the statistics
they can need. Any statistics you want, you ask us and we give you” he
said.

The National Bureau of Statistics of Nigeria gets its information
from contributing bodies and organisations such as the National
Planning Commission, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, Federal
Ministry of Health, National Population Commission, Nigerian Stock
Exchange, Nigerian Embassies and High Commissions, Federal Ministry of
Finance, Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigerian National Petroleum
Corporation, among others.