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In
politics, it is said, there are no permanent friends, or enemies, only
permanent interests. Barack Obama’s America, as appraised by last week’s
mid-term elections, is clear proof that no politician should count on enduring
allegiance from the electorate. A country which wholeheartedly rejected the
Republicans two years ago, now seems to have swung their anger in the opposite
direction. Many Americans – enough to make an electoral difference – seem
convinced that the revolution is now in need of a revolution.

Making the
rounds in America, on bumper stickers, T-shirts and banners, are chilling
slogans like these: ‘I’ll Keep My Guns, Freedom, & Money… You Can Keep
The “Change!’; ‘Don’t blame me, I voted for Palin’; ‘One Big Ass Mistake,
America’ (which form the acronym: OBAMA).

The
question on the minds of many is the one that The Economist asked in a recent
article: “How did it come to this?” Indeed, where did it all go wrong? Where,
to borrow the words of that Igbo proverb made famous by Chinua Achebe, did the
rain begin to beat Mr. Obama’s dreams and promises? The jury’s still out on
that, and understandably so.

For one,
politics tends to resist attempts to clinically isolate causes and allocate
blame. Second, one must keep in mind the dreadful state of the American economy
at the time that he took over. It can very easily be argued that the rain
started well before the emergence of Mr. Obama.

There is
no doubt that last week’s elections have dealt a massive blow to Mr. Obama and
all that he stands for. Yet, we strongly believe that that does not spell the
end of the road for the Obama administration. Far from it. He now has the
chance to go into the second half of his 4-year term a wiser and less tentative
leader.

The first
half of his tenure has shown that two years is an eternity in contemporary
politics. So we expect him to realise that just as a lot of goodwill and hope
have been squandered since 2008, there is also the strong possibility that by
the all-important November 2012, when he will expectedly seek a second and
final term in office, he will have fulfilled most – if not all – of the initial
‘Yes We Can’ promise.

He will,
of course, recall that only a decade and half ago, fellow democrat, Bill
Clinton, faced a similar situation. In 1994, two years into the Clinton
presidency, the Democrats lost 54 House of Representatives seats and 8 Senate
seats to the Republicans, automatically forfeiting the leadership of both
chambers.

In spite
of this, and of the fact that Mr. Clinton would end up serving six of his eight
years with a Senate and Congress controlled by Republicans, he went on to win a
second term in 1996, and left office with an approval rating that was higher
than that of any US President since the second World War, and almost twice that
with which George W. Bush would leave office eight years later.

Mr. Obama
can at least be grateful that his party still maintains control of the Senate.
We commend the equanimity with which he has taken the verdict of the electorate:
he has promised to work with the new leadership of the House, even though that
leadership sounds far less keen to be cooperative.

He should
remember former New York Governor Mario Cuomo’s words: “You campaign in poetry;
you govern in prose.” By now we believe he has learnt that well-crafted words
and speeches, while able to rouse people and make them giddy with excitement,
will not lift a finger to help in the challenging task of governance.

Mr. Obama
ought to consult the average Nigerian to get an idea of how helpless promises
are in breaking the chains of poverty and joblessness. Indeed, if promises were
all that countries needed for transformation, America would today be looking up
to Nigeria.

He should
remember these words from his victory speech two years ago: “The road ahead will be long. Our
climb will be steep. We may not get
there in one year or even in one term… There will be setbacks and false
starts… And we know the government can’t solve every problem. But I will
always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you,
especially when we disagree.”

When the
going gets tough(er), in the months ahead – as it surely will, considering the
disgraceful scare-mongering that the Republican party sometimes resorts to; and
the needless recalcitrance that has too often marked its relationship with Mr.
Obama – Mr. Obama should remember the ordinary people of America, and make a
decision to listen to them more often, and with greater seriousness.

Weren’t
they the ones he offered the promise of “change” in the first place?

Shoes have come a long way from rudimentary protective strips of
bark and skin from which they originated to objects of embellished
craftsmanship, art even. Along the way they have been imbued with all the sorcery
and mystique of covering while uncovering, embellishing and delineating the
status of the wearer.

And not just women, vanity is universal. ‘Im shoe de nak!’ was a
statement uttered in admiration of the wearer in the days when cobblers would
hammer tiny nails into the sole of a man’s shoe so that the sound of his
approach preceded him and lingered as he departed. His tread had a brand, to
use contemporary parlance. Of course the opposite was the tripping click click
sound of high heels.

It is true you can recognise a person you know by the sound and
rhythm of their footstep. Every gait is individual and inherited. You can see
the father in the daughter, the mother in the son. The angle of the sway and
the rhythm of the swing might be different but the root is discernible.

Shoes tell the story of the wearer, just as your feet tell the
history of your life. Do you lean more heavily to the left or the right, what
side of your sole wears down faster? If the road you have traveled has been
hard and stony, or your passages well cuffed and smooth your feet will tell. Do
you drive or are you driven, or are your feet constantly in touch with the
earth, grounded as it were, in your roots? Do you till the soil and toil with
your livestock; are you dependent on waiting for others to provide your
conveyance? Your feet and shoes will tell.

Like many other crafts that were passed on by hand, the art of
the shoemaker has disappeared. Most shoes are mass produced in factories.
Custom made shoes are now a luxury but the language of shoemaking is replete
with terms that show it began as hand worked craft, fitting and shaping to
individual dimensions. A selection of shoe making terms written by Desiree
Stimpert (About.com) reveal a craft that at every stage was made to conform to
the quirks of the wearer, to fit like a second skin.

A shoe has a footbed, also known as an inner sole. The goring is
an elasticized piece of material that makes the opening of the shoes without
laces more flexible so you can ease your foot in, comfortably. There is a heel
breast, the side of the heel that faces forward when the shoe is on the foot. A
shoe has a throat that is what you put your foot into.

The shank of a shoe supports the foot and gives the shoe its
structure. It runs between the heel and outsole (distinct from the inner sole)
and sits under the arch of the foot. The vamp is the part of a shoe that covers
the front. Vamps, as in a particular type of seductress, and shoes with high
arches have a close literary association. A shoe has a waist, a reference to
the arc and instep of the foot.

A relationship that has bloomed and mellowed and conformed to the
mould of the lovers is very much like an old hand made shoe that you can slip
your feet into effortlessly, and simply be. There is no stiff shiny newness
that has to be broken in, no pinching and squeezing to be endured while you
make inyanga with pain just to look fine. Pretty, yes at first, but unyielding
until you try it out hoping that it will still maintain the shape that first caught
your eye as you pray that beauty and form will marry in comfort, soon.

And so we come to types of shoes: Pumps; pump what? Loafers that
are easy to slip on and take off and loafers a reference that stereotypes men,
who just want to get along without too much effort just as long as you are
prepared to keep working. There are also mules, even easier to slip on because
they are backless. Mules are usually the favorite foot accompaniment for agbada
and babanriga adding an easy elegance to the wearer. For a woman, a mule with a
heel that lifts the back of the foot off the ground has a different kind of
suggestiveness. Stilettos, named for the thin narrow bladed knife with the
furtive lethal action bring us back to the current fashion for stratospheric
heels and sky-high platforms.

My question to a random selection of men and women was: What do
you think about the current female fashion for sky high heels and stacked
platforms, that make every woman who wears them instantly tall and imposing?
Does that make the woman more attractive, intimidating or inaccessible?

Women on pedestals, more of that next week…

Many hearts sank or missed a beat when news broke that thirteen
containers full of sophisticated weapons – rocket launchers, grenades, mortar
bombs, machine guns, and other weapons – had been intercepted at the AP Moeller
terminal in the Apapa Port in Lagos after they had lain there for over three
months. It seemed that the threat of electoral violence might be being made
real.

Yet, it hardly seemed credible that even the short-sighted
amongst our politicians could be so unthinking. After all, they struggle for
electoral ‘victories’ in the expectation that there will still be a state for
them plunder in the genteel manner that they have perfected. And although in
one of my early columns for Section 39 (Marching As To War) I expressed fears
that politicians, seeing the reward that violence and election rigging yielded
in 2007 when Maurice Iwu’s INEC abandoned its “Zero-tolerance for Violence”
policy, might be preparing for the next round of general elections as though
for war, the kind of all-out destructive conflict in which the intercepted
weapons might be used appeared incompatible with the self-interest of Nigeria’s
ruling classes.

So, the suggestion that the weapons were destined for other
conflicts seemed to confirm that nobody was aiming to destroy the country in
their attempt to rule it.

The CNN report relaying news of the discovery emphasized how
porous Nigeria’s borders are. We certainly can’t deny that our borders are
porous, but we can understand the magnitude of our problems when we consider that
the home country of the CNN’s which was airing this criticism, the United
States of America, has not been able to seal its own borders against heroin and
cocaine.

Since those drugs come from outside, the normal laws of supply
and demand ought to result in rocketing ‘street’ prices for these drugs if the
noose is really being tightened around all such illicit commerce – not least
because the US is also on the alert to intercept any materials with which
terorrists might seek to threaten it – but in fact the only reports are of the
falling price of drugs, and of Europe and America being deluged with Afghan
heroin and with cocaine from South America.

As if to underline the difficulty, a well engineered and
ventilated tunnel, which even had a rail track for ease of bulk transport, was
recently discovered under the border between the US and Mexico! Tunnels also
riddle the borders of Gaza, for which the Apapa containers were apparently
destined, and despite the awe and veneration with which Nigerian rulers of every
stripe and creed regard the Israeli security services, weapons still enter the
beseiged strip.

When gold rusts, what will iron do? The inability of rich and/or
efficient nations to secure their own borders against drugs and weapons is not
an excuse for us to throw up our hands, even though we barely have a first line
of defence, let alone the second, third and fourth lines available to other
countries. Nor, considering that we have enough attacks showing that large
quantities of weapons are already being used against Nigerians, should we feel
any relief that this particular Apapa cache was intended for a foreign
conflict.

After all, there is no basis for assuming that desperate
politicians have abandoned the idea of arming for the coming elections, while other
miscreants who want mayhem in the country are growing bolder and appear to have
decided that they can live with the blood of innocent victims of their
terrorist attacks on their hands.

Instead, our government needs to do a great deal more than has
been done to date, to bring Nigerians onside in the business of providing for
our collective national security, and of course, to make it clear that no
privately owned jetties or terminals can be off limits to the federal
government’s own security agencies, and that those security agencies will act
with complete impartiality and political neutrality in the business of keeping
dangerous weapons out of the country and maintaining security.

Fortunately, the investigation into the Abuja Jubilee car bombs
– which was in danger of degenerating into a political football – now seems to
be back on track. But in this context the careless statements that have been
coming out of Abia State give more than a little cause for concern. The
government there has been preening itself that recent activity by the security
forces to curtail kidnappers is one of the fruits of the decision by Governor
Theodore Orji to join the ruling Peoples Democratic Party.

One waited (in vain) for some disclaimer, but it would probably
be best to ascribe the lack of reaction by either the Presidency or the Nigeria
Police Force to these unfortunate boasts, to their not having heard the claims
or their giving the traditional answer to foolishness – silence. After all, the
implication was that the Federal Government of Nigeria had deliberately
neglected its obligation to provide security in every part of this country
because the citizens in one part had voted for an opposition party! That is not
and cannot be right.

One of General Andrew Owoye Azazi’s first actions, following his
recent appointment as National Security Advisor, was to put Nigeria’s
intelligence network on notice that he wanted serious intelligence on any
threats to Nigeria’s national security. The results were not long in coming
forth.

Barely three weeks after General Azazi’s appointment, Nigeria’s
security services intercepted 13 shipping containers at Apapa Wharf, Lagos,
containing a range of illegal weapons including rocket launchers, grenades,
mortar bombs, and other light weapons as well as ammunition.

The shipment is believed to have been loaded in Iran, stopping
at Mumbai’s Jawaharlal Nehru port, before continuing to Lagos, where Nigeria’s
State Security Service (SSS) intercepted it. The size of the shipment is a
wake-up call that significant shipments of illegal arms are continuing to make
their way into Nigeria and be distributed through networks of illegal arms
dealers throughout the country.

The latest shipment of illegal arms highlights the huge number
of illegal weapons already in circulation in Nigeria. In the recent amnesty,
there was absolutely no accountability for the 2,760 arms surrendered across
Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Ondo, and Rivers States, and the
chain of custody of weapons surrendered had no integrity. In keeping with
previous surrenders, the weapons were recycled through the loop to inflate the
number surrendered. The IGP was accused of supplying some weapons to make up
the numbers for weapons displayed to the media.

In the weapons surrender attached to the amnesty process, the
military provided no details of serial numbers of weapons surrendered and there
was no independent check or destruction to UN standards. The tally of 2,760
arms surrendered is ridiculously small for 20,000 militia. The weapons
surrender, which attended the amnesty process, must be suspect. These
government figures are simply devoid of any credibility. Where are all the
weapons that were surrendered?

The fact is that in the amnesty process the militia surrendered
a small fraction of their weapons and the vast bulk of illegal weapons
including mortars, TNT, assault rifles, hand grenades and grenade launchers
remain in civilian hands. The military must account for the weapons that were
surrendered.

One shipment of illegal weapons to Nigeria in mid 2007 contained
60 times more ammunition than that surrendered in the recent amnesty.

It also contained 950 automatic assault rifles and 1,475,000
rounds of ammunition, 300 grenade launchers, 8,000 hand grenades, 700 pistols,
and 300,000 rounds of ammunition, 500 kg of TNT, mortars, portable military
radio sets, and more. This illegal cargo was transported by ship through the
port of Odessa in Ukraine, then to Dubai, from where it was shipped by air to
West Africa, before being transferred to a vessel for the final leg of its
journey to Nigeria. The shipment made it to Nigeria and was off loaded at Lagos
in the same manner as the shipment discovered last week and was distributed through
the network of illegal arms dealers.

As this column stated in ‘Arms, Arms, and Arms‘ (NEXT Nigeria 11
October 2009), “…. recovery of illegal arms by the Nigerian military and
police is exceedingly small and this is a cause for concern when one considers
the ease with which militants and criminals use road transport to distribute
weapons from Lagos Harbour to the Niger Delta”.

Although we must await the details of the shipment of arms
discovered by the SSS in Lagos last week, it is a safe guess that it will
rival, if not dwarf, the total of all weapons surrendered in the amnesty.

In this latest seizure of illegal arms, the new NSA moved
quickly to ensure a co-ordinated effort between all Nigeria’s security
services. A co-operative effort between the Chief of Defence Staff, Inspector
General of Police, Director General of the State Security Service and service
chiefs is a welcome development.

General Azazi has lifted the performance of Nigeria’s security
services in the last few weeks and we would all hope that the security services
are about to be overhauled to produce a significantly better performance than
Nigeria has been given in recent years. Thus far, its full marks to the new
NSA.

In his recent public statement, President Jonathan is correct in
emphasising the need to simultaneously upgrade Nigeria’s security effort while
alleviating poverty, building infrastructure, and building sustainable economic
development opportunities. In addressing the latter, President Jonathan will
strip away the basis for unrest but this will not occur overnight. It will be a
long haul that will require the continued support of the Presidency. Meanwhile,
General Azazi must continue to shake up the security services and pursue the
reform mandate President Jonathan has given the NSA following the Independence
Day bombings.

But we should not forget about the vast hordes of illegal arms
that already exist in Nigeria. There are sufficient weapons in civilian hands
to cause a considerable amount of conflict in Nigeria and certainly to disrupt
the 2011 elections. The task of identifying and securing these weapons is every
bit as important as intercepting cargoes of illegal weapons entering Nigeria.

Canon Dr. Stephen Davis is Canon Emeritus at Coventry Cathedral
and has served as an advisor to President Obasanjo, Presidential Envoy under
President Yar’Adua, and is the author of The Report on the Potential for Peace
and Reconciliation in the Niger Delta.

The beauty of democracy is the power a single vote gives to the electorate, power to choose who governs them, power to remove a non-performing leader.

Democratic practice in Africa has over the years become more and more lopsided. Here, power does not rest with the electorate, but has been hijacked by the political class who, over the years, enshrined a system of election manipulation characterised by financial inducements, ballot rigging, stuffing and snatching, as well as assassination of opponents.

Stories of electoral manipulation resonate all over Africa, especially sub-Saharan Africa, where the norm is sit-tight despotic leaders who, usually after completing the constitutional terms, try very hard to alter the constitution to allow for extra terms, and where this is not possible, install a sympathetic lackey to oversee affairs on their behalf.

In recent years, another form of manipulation, popularised by the likes of late Zaire president, Mobutu Sese Seko, appears to be garnering converts amongst the political class. A good instance is ousted President Mamoudu Tanja of Niger, who had to be forced out of office by the military after he attempted to change the constitution to accommodate his power extension scheme. Another is President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos of oil-rich Angola, in power for three decades, who recently signed into law a new constitution that scrapped the post of prime minister while concentrating executive responsibility in the hands of the president. The new constitution also empowers the president to appoint a vice president, the judges of the Constitutional Court, Supreme Court, and the Court of Audit.

Invariably, the new constitution, aside from granting Mr. Santos more powers, also allows him to run for a fresh five-year term against an opposition that is already claiming that results of the yet-to-be held election is already fixed.

Though some analysts have argued that the problem of electoral manipulation and the subsequent bad leadership it breeds are effects of the much beleaguered colonial heritage, some others, like Godsway Yaw Sappor, writing about the failure of African Leadership, argued that:

“Colonialism did not bestow much to Africa, but the African leadership could not retain, let alone increase, the little that it inherited. Corrupt leaders destroyed the inherited infrastructure – roads, bridges, schools, universities, hospitals, telephones, and even the civil service machinery, are now in shambles.

“Common sense dictates looking both ways before crossing a street, or risk being hit by a truck. For decades, African leaders looked only one way, at “external factors”: colonial legacies, the lingering effects of the slave trade, an unjust international economic system, and predatory practices of multi-national corporations, among others, to explain the miserable economic performance of the continent,” he concluded.

We can infer from the position of Sappor that African leaders tend to blame outside forces for the massive lapses that characterise electioneering in Africa. Perhaps, it is time they changed that orientation.
Though electoral manipulations can and do occur outside of Africa, with or without the resultant violence, the biting question is, when will Africa become an exception to this bitter rule?

Many supposedly progressive African politicians have argued that resorting to the status quo (here, electoral manipulations) is a means to an end, since they might never get anywhere unless they get their hands dirty.
In their argument, they tend to forget a fundamental truth; that electoral manipulation throws up more problems than it solves, especially where good governance is concerned, because it is impossible for a politician who willingly breaks the law to get into office to work for the good of the society.

The Post Newspaper, Zambia, in its editorial of Monday, 26 June 2006, sums the argument thus: “Elections are very important to the governance of our country and should not be conducted in a manner that is similar to an auction sale.”

A political blogger

Uche Ohia puts it in better perspective when he said: “When votes do not count or are not counted, ‘victory‘ does not go to the best candidate but to the best rigger – that is the candidate whose political party has greater capacity to intimidate, cheat, or compromise electoral officials, security agents and, if need be, to unleash violence.

“When votes do not count, candidates seek not to outscore each other in the ballot, but to out-manoeuvre (or, if you like, out-rig) each other. When votes do not count, the electoral process becomes devoid of even a modicum of morality: the end justifies the means.”

Suffice it to say here that for Africa to begin that long road that leads towards mental and economic emancipation, the institutionalised evils of sycophancy and nepotism must give way to an enduring system of government that is closer to the true ideals of democratic governance. The prevailing system whereby a certain class sees politics as a profit-orientated business must give way before any meaningful economic development will take place in the continent.

The gains of democracy, which should include a credible electoral system, need to be consolidated in Africa, especially now that the continent aims to clean up its image in the world.

With 2010 and 2011 being election years in Africa, the hope is that Africa would emerge without the usual anarchy associated with the electoral process in the continent.

That, in itself, would be a great improvement.

I had just turned 22, freshly out of NYSC, and a few months into my first job. It was at a federal government ministry and I was deployed to the minister’s office. By the curious civil service mechanism of passing all tasks to subordinate officers, I found myself at the bottom of the rung. The task at hand was to draft a speech for the minister to commemorate activities marking Nigeria’s observation of World Food Day, in line with the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organisation, FAO.

None of the officers above me made any input into the speech, and I could not get clear policy or research materials indicating Nigeria’s position.

In short, I was stumped, but resolved to produce a rough draft. The outcome was a four-page speech for the minister written entirely on my own, detailing what the situation in Nigeria was and what I thought government was doing to enhance food security through the effective management of water resources and irrigated agriculture.

I expected my superiors to trash what I had written and replace it with a proper position paper for the minister’s televised address. The speech did not only pass through unaltered and without additional inputs, but went straight to the minister who read it with a pious conviction on television and radio.

Next day, practically all newspapers in the country reported the minister’s address as a key policy of government! To say that I was aghast is an understatement. How can the simple essay written by a fresh employee with little experience, but more importantly, without serious research or considered opinions become government policy? My greatest shock came when I was commended for doing a good job. Then the speech was promptly filed away.

Little has changed

Government policy is still mostly ad-hoc. There are few master plans to guide the actions of government officials in line with public policy. There are few policies to streamline the operations of many government agencies, and where such exist, few officials are aware of, or even willing to work with them, if they conflict with vested interests.

Over time, I drafted what were intended as mere speeches that somehow became keynote addresses. Some of them reached the highest echelons of government and were presented as public policy. They were often written with minimal input from established frameworks because such guides simply did not exit, or where they did, were of little use. My disillusionment grew as I watched, listened, or read ordinary speeches meant for specific events substituting as public policy. This hastened my eventual departure.

In the countdown to the 2011 elections, the same contradictions are beginning to manifest from the campaign teams of the major aspirants. Informed writers are tasked with producing beautiful manifestos for aspirants, but as usual, these documents that should guide that candidate’s administration in the event of victory at the polls, will be discarded as soon as victory is announced. The candidates often do not contribute to, or even understand what they are pitching to the public; that is why they mumble and fumble through them.

Forgive the digression

The crux of this piece is whether there is a line between speech writing in Nigeria and policy-making. In ideal circumstances, every course of government action should be guided by well streamlined policy processes from initiation to completion.

Speeches and addresses should be excerpts from government policy in that sector. But because policy is often lacking in government, pedestrian speeches, keynote addresses, and even ordinary comments by government officials often end up being reported or even regarded as public policy.

Part of the problem may be because the public service has been unable to drop the toga of colonial heritage when it was dominated by Europeans on whom were concentrated executive, judicial, and legislative powers.
Succeeding constitutional reviews increased the stake of Nigerians at the helm of the public service until iIndependence in 1960. Independence was supposed to catalyse the evolution of the service as a national institution for spearheading the rapid transformation of the nation and modernising administrative processes.

But on a visit to the National Archives in Kaduna in 2007, I caught sight of a memo that was being scanned for digitization. A white colonial official had written it back in 1907, exactly 100 years ago. The same diction, style, and procedure are still in use today.

Then it hit me: a hundred years ago, the word of the colonial official was law. Today, the speech of a government official is public policy.

Harry Truman said there are lies, damned lies, and then
there are statistics. Still, let’s take a look at some facts and figures.

$13 billion: Spent buying and maintaining our own
self-generation each year.

$10 billion: For capital investment annually for the
next 10 years to efficiently generate, transmit, and distribute the 40,000 MW
we need to sustain real rural/urban development, excluding the cost of gas
transport infrastructure.

$500 million: After attaining 40,000 MW, the amount
needed to match available capacity with demographic growth and meet the
strategic need to maintain a spinning reserve in the electricity system.

N188 billion or $1.2 billion: Appropriated in the 2010
Budget for Ministry of Power capital projects (how much of this has actually
been released is a different matter but, given the experiences in other
sectors, this will probably not exceed 35%).

36%: Percentage of total 2010 national budget that
would have to be dedicated to meeting the above-mentioned $10 billion per annum
capital demand.

39 million: ILO estimates of the number of unemployed
Nigerian citizens (49% of labour force, 27% of entire population).

Some more: Self-generation increases the cost of goods
and services by an average of 40%. SMEs are the engine rooms that drive a
developing economy by creating employment, providing innovation, and
sustainability. SMEs are the immediate proof of the resourcefulness and
entrepreneurial spirit for which Nigerians are well known.

Steady and affordable electricity removes a major
barrier to entry into business for many SMEs and gives the agricultural
industry greater impact on our GDP, enabling it to process cash crops and
livestock for added value, not just for export, but for use internally. Ghana
is now well known as the place of refuge for businesses that have had to run
out of Nigeria due to the escalating costs of self-generation. The IMF
estimates that implementing electricity sector reforms would take us to an
annual growth rate of 15%, double the current 7.5%.

This data explains why the Federal Government can no
longer be the sole financier, owner, and operator of our electricity industry.
If continuous improvement in electricity service delivery and availability
requires spending 36% of the 2010 annual budget, which we know is impossible;
if there are only three sectors in our society – public sector, private sector,
and NGOs; if we accept that both the public sector and NGOs possess neither the
financial nor managerial capacity to sustain a modern electricity system, then
our strategic national interest surely demands the direct involvement of the
private sector in the electricity business.

Looking at telecoms, aviation, and petroleum products
marketing, we see the improved standard of living wrought by sector reform, the
exit of government from business through privatisation, its restriction to the
policy-making and regulatory functions and by the liberalisation of entry into
business by the private sector. One can only imagine the socio-economic
multiplier effects that full reform and privatisation of the electricity
industry would bring about.

When we do not reform, white elephants adorn our
landscape. One excellent example is the billions of dollars spent since 2005 on
the National Independent Power Project (NIPP) programme, with not one of its
414 interconnected engineering projects completed to date. NIPP will break its
promise to deliver 600MW plus associated gas pipeline, transmission and
distribution by 31st December 2010.

Now, the Federal Government is fixed on hydropower
projects. In spite of President Jonathan’s promise not to spend one kobo on
generation in 2011 but to reform and privatise instead, we are now set to
embark on hydro white elephants in Zungeru and Mambilla, both estimated to cost
over $5.2bn.

So, the true cost of delaying or stopping the reform on
the electricity industry is a triple whammy. We flush raw cash down the public
drain and into private pockets. We have much less to spend on necessary social
services. We suffocate the entrepreneurial spirit and strength of character
that would actualise Nigeria’s aspiration to become the giant it has the
potential to be.

There is no computer programme to calculate these
costs, but we see the consequences each day – the extremely high unemployment
rate and the unimaginable social ills that are now a staple of newspaper
stories.

However, the most tangible benefit for you and I, if
President Goodluck can follow through comprehensively on his Road Map to Power
Sector Reform, is the $13 billion we will collectively save instead of spending
on self-generation.

Now, that would be some savings, wouldn’t it? Plus,
being a great leap towards ending our sad story as the giant that almost was.