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On Awolowo Road in S.W. Ikoyi, just around the corner from my house, a clown is directing the traffic.

Considering how
busy the road is, what with petrol stations, banks, shops, travel
agents and so on, he’s not doing a bad job either.

If not for him, one
might be tempted to conclude that the affairs of the nation are being
run by clowns. But that would be unfair to clowns. And we aren’t really
laughing either. I mean, because I worked from home on that day, I was
lucky to avoid the mayhem and chaos that President Goodluck Jonathan
caused in Lagos last week when he came to launch the hard copy of his
dialogues with his Facebook ‘friends’.

The Third Mainland
Bridge, critical artery of the city, was shut down for hours, but his
cheerleaders and apologists have been defending that monumentally
selfish act. Nor is it the first time Jonathan has shut Lagos down
because he is disturbing – sorry – gracing us with his presence, he’s
been here before with similarly disruptive results.

His Facebook
friends should tell him that Lagos is not a civil service town, and
people there have to work for their money: no work means no results,
and no results means no income. That applies almost as much to salaried
employees in private companies which have to deliver on the bottom line
as it does to the majority who are self-employed.

Even in Abuja,
where some peoples’ ‘job’ consists of dancing attendance on some
government person with an inflated sense of their own importance or
taking a daylong nap in government offices, there is still a large
majority that has to get to the office and do their work.

To be fair to
Jonathan though, even the most popular national leaders in these days
of crazed lone killers might hesitate to disdain the advice of security
agencies as, some 500 odd years ago in another country, a ruler –
Elizabeth I of England – disdained the advice of her own security
advisers not to venture among her rough and ready soldiers at Tilbury
with the famous words: “Let tyrants fear, I have always so behaved
myself that, under God, I have placed my chiefest strength and security
in the loyal hearts and good-will of my subjects.” Well, despite that
bit of bravado, Elizabeth I did face an assassination attempt, and she
didn’t find it funny either. So even without former vice-president,
Atiku Abubakar’s observation (or warning?) that “Those who make
peaceful change impossible make violent change inevitable” precautions
are only prudent for rulers who don’t merit loyal hearts or goodwill.
Still, one can only shudder at the level of incompetence that is unable
to provide security without such chaos and the cocoon of complacency
with which our president must have surrounded himself to let it happen
a second time within such a few short months.

As for Atiku –
although pro-Jonathan apparatchiks are up in arms demanding that he be
arrested for causing disaffection (and he, Atiku, is just dying to be
arrested so that he can acquire some official oppression and possibly
even a bit of prison ‘cred’ for something other than the whiff of
corruption that continues to dog him) – he isn’t really saying anything
new.

Former Chief
Justice Fatai-Williams quoted the same words of U.S. president John
Fitzgerald Kennedy in his lead judgment in the challenge brought by
then Senator Abraham Adesanya over the appointment of the head of the
2nd Republic’s election management body. Of course, lazy as we Naijas
are about these matters, the word ‘change’ has been substituted for
‘revolution’.

But before you get
to violent revolution, surely you must pass the peaceful change
impossibility test. Nigeria, preparing for elections, can hardly be
said to have reached that stage yet.

Even the ruling
Peoples Democratic Party, for all its reputation as a ‘nest of killers’
cannot be said to have made peaceful change impossible, despite the
unsporting pinpricks to which Atiku has been subjected since he emerged
as the consensus candidate among four northern aspirants within the PDP
(revisiting his re-admission to the PDP, removal of a favourable
opinion poll from the PDP website etc.). So, as ‘Baba’ himself might
say, everybody should calm down.

Nobody is revolutionising anything.

And as I would add,
especially not in the PDP! Outside that hothouse, whose leaders (to
adopt the words of British Liberal Democrats talking unguardedly but
truthfully about their Conservative counterparts) don’t seem to know
how ordinary people live, what with their four-hour shutdowns and $40
million transfers, civil society gathered to celebrate the living proof
that peaceful change remains possible in Nigeria with a reception for
Kayode and Bisi Fayemi, marking the former’s accession to the
governorship of Ekiti State.

It’s true that the
gubernatorial party had to arrive late due to Arik Air’s “operational
reasons”. Arik probably has serious people in charge of operations.
Maybe they ought to try something different.

Like sending in the clowns.

As we usher in the year 2011, our national resolve
is that this must be the turning point when we move from our long
history with electoral fraud to a brighter future based on credible
elections. The phrase that I have repeated the most over the past two
decades is that the majority of Nigerians are deeply committed to
democracy but the bulk of the political class is extremely competent in
the techniques of subverting democratic processes.

When we review our 89 year-old history with
elections, it is clear that the quality, integrity and credibility of
the voting process has been declining steadily and the reasons are
political rather than technical. Our elections started on a wrong
footing in 1922. In 1920, the educated elite in colonial Nigeria had
established the National Council of British West Africa to demand for
the introduction of the elective principle in selecting some members of
the Colonial Council.

The governor, Sir Hugh Clifford was livid with
anger at the idea. He declared that the group was “self-selected and
self-appointed (and were) trying to break out of their tribal
obligations and duties to their own natural rulers.” He added that they
were not representative of “the cannibals Mama hills, the determinedly
unsocial Mumuyes of Mubi Province or the equally naked warriors of the
inner Ibo country (see Coleman’s Nigeria: Background Nationalism, page
193).

Clifford, the English white conqueror, defined
himself as more representative of the people because he was on the side
of the “natural rulers” of the people. The elections of 1922 were
therefore limited to electing three representatives of the educated
elite in Lagos and one from Calabar to represent their “Europeanised”
colleagues in the Council.

This trend in electoral injustice was confirmed by
the Colonial Administration during the 1950-1951 elections in Northern
Nigeria when they taught the emerging political class how to subvert
the people’s mandate. Following the victory of radical NEPU candidates
in the first round of the elections in December 1950, the furious
British Administration changed the rules, injected a large dose of the
Native Administration into the Electoral College and eliminated all the
NEPU candidates who had won in the first round of the election. The
result was the creation of a conservative political class in Northern
Nigeria under the control of the Northern Peoples’ Congress and their
British friends.

Subsequently, except for the first round elections
in 1959, 1979, 1999 and maybe the 1993 June 12th elections, all other
elections were massively rigged. Nigeria then engaged upon the path of
elections suffering from the “progressive deterioration” trajectory as
seen in the 1959 to 1965 elections, 1979 to 1983 elections and the 1999
to 2007 elections. This demonstrates that the historical problem of
general elections is not the electoral system per se, but the will and
above all, the capacity of the political class to subvert it.

The most important aspect of our elections was the
transformation of the techniques of electoral fraud from the analogue
to digital technology of rigging. Analogue rigging involves ballot box
stuffing or stealing, under-age voting and multiple voting. It consists
of techniques to illegally increase the votes cast for a party.

Digital rigging was invented by the National Party
of Nigeria in the Ondo State 1983 elections. The party was determined
to take the state but the gap against their candidate, Akin Omoboriowo
was so massive that manipulation of numbers could not work. The
electoral body then known as FEDECO simply set aside the results and
invented completely new figures that declared Omoboriowo winner. The
people’s anger was so high that the NPN candidate barely escaped with
his life and the judiciary quickly stepped in to restore electoral
justice.

It was General Olusegun Obasanjo who perfected the
techniques of digital rigging during the 2003 and 2007 elections and
completely confiscated the franchise of the Nigerian people. The
People’s Democratic Party took over the reins of political power
without the mandate of the people. The courts were able to restore
electoral justice for some candidates but in most cases, injustice was
sustained by the judicial system.

The task for 2011 for Nigerian citizens is
therefore the restoration of electoral justice. This can happen if
civic consciousness is raised and citizens count, protect, escort and
protect their vote because their lives and livelihoods depend on it. It
is this citizens’ commitment to protecting their mandate that will
create the conditions for the Jega led INEC to reverse our long history
of electoral injustice. We know our political class will not give us
democracy. Let’s all make the New Year resolution of struggling for
electoral democracy in our country.

Congratulations
indeed! That you are reading AH-HAA this second day of the year is
great news: I’m sure you know that some persons couldn’t cross into
2011. And that fact makes me ponder the words of a Christmas card sent
to me by my sector commander at the Federal Road Safety Commission
[FRSC], Jonas Agwu:

“If we drive
responsibly, we will celebrate this season and many more seasons in
2011. Remember, a road crash is someone’s fault: Don’t let it be yours”.

The message is apt,
yet sobering. One is aware that there are over nine million ways to
die; should one not be reducing one’s chances of causing anyone’s death
inadvertently? There is a tendency for us as a people with so much
‘religion’, to accept that it is the will of the Almighty that certain
things happen when they do. One agrees! But one draws the line where we
fail to accept that the same Almighty could never have intended anyone
to die through deliberate, intentional and STUPID acts of omission or
commission that could cause the death of another, inadvertently or
otherwise.

The logic rankles;
the appeal to one to roll over and accept the fact that any death was
intended by God, no matter how the death came about, really gets one’s
dandruff! I will NEVER accept that God intended for a man to jump a red
traffic light, on a Sunday morning at 6.15am when traffic is almost
non-existent, only to murder a wife, mother, grandmother, sister, aunty
and mentor, walking to morning Mass, as she had done daily for thirty
odd years. NEVER!

Why then do we have
laws that recognise manslaughter and murder, even if by accident? Are
we now saying that there is no such thing as an accident, because no
incident can be an accident, since God sanctions all actions? Is it not
a failure of our institutions to provide the needed succour to those
who suffer as a result of accidents that has made many Nigerians ‘leave
everything in the hands of God’? Would people be leaving simple matters
to GOD if they got justice here on earth?

Weeks ago, I was a
part of a group privileged to watch video footage of gruesome accident
scenes at the FRSC office in Lagos; I urge the Commission to please
show this film on Television as well, especially during this holiday
period, to put things in perspective for us all. I believe we need to
be shocked out of any delusions of grandeur about how insulated we
think we are from fatal road accidents. When you see a headless body
still seated at the steering wheel of a smashed car, you’ll wonder
where on earth he or she could have been rushing to, and if the deal
didn’t still go ahead even with him or her dead!

Pay more attention
people! Was it a bad thing that we got cell phones, for instance? Why
then should anyone decide to answer a ringing phone while driving? If
you crash and die while answering the phone, will the caller not have
someone else to hire? Or will that chore not get done in the end? What
about texting while driving? Done it before? Gotten away with it? So,
you are an expert now? Guy, you were just lucky; your Guardian Angel
may not always be there to shield you.

Jumping the red
traffic light? When last did you do something silly while using the
road? And did you not know you were being stupid?

This is not only
about the drivers, but also about ALL users of our roads. Government
says to protect us, we should wear helmets while riding motorcycles;
but we know too much! We say it disturbs our comfort: doesn’t sit well
on hairstyles or headgear as the case may be. Government says do not
carry baggage on motorcycles, but we say it are conspiring to reduce
our daily income. Don’t drive on the bus lane; we do, just because we
can. Then you are involved in a ghastly accident and vilify the same
government that sought to protect you from yourself, and berate the
inadequacy of the hospitals. Would a hospital have been needed if you
had simply obeyed the law?

Well, you are
reading this Sunday, good for you! Imagine if you were responsible for
someone not making it into 2011, and missing all the drama and
intrigues that Nigerian politics is promising us this year. Most will
die avoidable deaths; recalcitrance, selfishness and negligence of
fellow human beings will be the probable cause. That’s what happens
when no one is paying attention to road safety. You never imagine that
you will have any cause to think about certain things until that same
thing has an unforgettable effect on your life.

Here’s to no hurting in 2011!

The remark by
Adeyemi Ikuforiji, Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, that
the executive arm of government is more corrupt than the legislature
was the second thing last week that reminded me of Dr. Samuel Johnson’s
observation: “There is no settling the precedence between the flea and
the louse.” Announcing the formation of a pressure group for
legislators, Ikuforiji was indignant (and rather too garrulous) on
behalf of his colleagues:

“Right now, the
whole Nigeria is shouting down on lawmakers but what they are stealing
is not as much as that of the executive. They complain about us buying
cars. Is the money we spent buying cars up to what they spend on
parties in the governor’s office? Is it as much as what they spent on
announcing the governor’s 100 days in office? When commissioners
collect cars, who speaks up? They make a noise about lawmakers as if
they are the only ones who are corrupt.” So that’s alright then.

The other thing
that reminded me of the same Johnsonian wisdom was the struggle within
the ruling Peoples Democratic Party over its presidential ticket, and
the release by the Atiku camp of the Jonathan’s alleged campaign
strategy, “The Man – Mr. Fox. A profile.” Perhaps not so much the flea
and the louse, as Mr. Fox and Mr. Tortoise.

The Jonathan camp
has denied authorship of the document. But, to paraphrase Mandy
Rice-Davies upon being told that British Defence Minister John Profumo
had denied any relationship with Christine Keeler, mistress of a Soviet
defence attaché: They would say that, wouldn’t they? Nobody willingly
admits damaging facts unless they are inescapable, and/or they have had
time to massage public opinion round to the idea that the facts – in
this case, the plans – are no big deal, at best just one possible
blueprint of whose acceptance by President Goodluck Jonathan there is
no proof. (Except of course, the uncanny coincidence between his recent
programme and the plan!) It may not have been accepted, or even been
seen by Jonathan, but the ring of authenticity comes from not just the
cynical calculations about using what ought to be independent organs of
the Nigerian Federation such as the judiciary, the Nigeria Police Force
and the Police Service Commission, or the meetings designed to showcase
Jonathan as the forward-thinking, non-sectional, father-of-all (yet
young) President of tomorrow, or even the entertainment celebrities and
journalists who are to be brought (or bought?) onside to polish his
image.

What gives it the
stamp of authenticity is the hopeful thinking reflected in the
assessment of support for the pPresident and his chief contender, Atiku
Abubakar, across the country. Only in his home state is ‘Mr. Fox’
allowed as much as 30%. For the rest, apart from Borno, Abia and Imo
(20%, but ‘OBJ’ is going to work on those last two states), Lagos and
Rivers (15%) and Enugu (10%) he is allowed only 0-5% support in the
remaining 29 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Mr. President on
the other hand, can expect as much as 90% support from some states.

Thus have
political fixers ever deceived their principals;. oOr mentally psyched
them up: after all, what’s the point of going into the thing as if you
don’t believe you can win? It’s the same ‘Ko ni FAIL’ imprecatory
approach of the roadside mechanic who knows full well that you can’t
get more than 250 metres with his emergency repairs, yet hope springs
eternal … These figures seem to have been the result of soundings made
before December, and luckily for Mr. President, only relate to
delegates in the PDP. Because if, after the near-unrelieved blackout
with which the majority of us ‘celebrated’ almost the whole of the
Christmas holidays (while complacent – or is it complicit? – newspapers
reported record power generation figures), soundings had to be taken
among the actual electorate; even the ‘Ko ni fail’ brigade would have a
job to massage the results.

But if the
intra-PDP struggle is uninspiring and deceitful, we should not be
mesmerised into forgetting that there is life outside the ruling party
or convincing ourselves that any opposition candidate ‘can’t win’ and
see them as nothing more than foils to allow the ruling party candidate
to claim that there will indeed be a ‘democratic contest’ (but not, as
the Mr. Fox profile suggests, too democratic) once the PDP has sorted
itself out.

With Nuhu Ribadu
at last putting his candidacy on something more solid than
‘anti-corruption’, and the ACN and CPC having to ask themselves some
hard questions about how far each of them can go it alone, we have the
makings of a real contest at the presidential level for 2011.

The PDP victory in
the Ikorodu by-election should serve as a reality check for the ACN
after the euphoria of the Ekiti and Osun gubernatorial victories. It
really isn’t good enough for it to whine about PDP dirty tricks. What
did it expect? More importantly, what is it expecting next year? Or had
the Lagos party started to believe the hype about Governor Babatunde
Fashola (and by extension, his party) walking on water? Not to Ikorodu
he doesn’t.

But that’s apparently something that Speaker Ikuforiji could have told us anyway.

The autobiography of Alhaji, Sir Ahmadu Bello,
K.B.E., M.H.A., Sardauna of Sokoto and the first premier of the
Northern Region of Nigeria in 1954, entitled “My Life,” may seem an odd
place to search for guidance in the face of the unfolding Ivorian
crisis. But, as I read about this statesman and a bit of the history of
his part of Nigeria, I realized that it had lessons for 21st century
Africa and that usurper Laurent Gbagbo.

What lessons could so-called “feudal” Africa have
for we “educated” 21st century Africans? Let us start with the art of
losing political power. The Sardauna of Sokoto, a scion of the house of
Fodio, was a descendant of the famed Fulani founder of the Sokoto
Empire, Shehu Usman dan Fodio. That empire, exercising suzerainty over
several Hausa emirates, lasted approximately a century until it
succumbed to the British colonial power in 1914 or thereabouts. How
could the Sokoto Empire last that long? Among other things, by the
subtle exercise of the art of losing political power; no system of
government can endure if it does not have a way of incorporating losers
of political office into its ongoing daily existence.

Listen to the words of the Sardauna of Sokoto:
“When the Shehu died in Sokoto in 1817 he expressed the wish that Bello
should succeed him as Sarkin Musulmi, or Commander of the Faithful for
the Western Sudan, while remaining as ruler of Sokoto in charge of the
Eastern Empire. However, this was not known to the Shehu’s brother
Abdullahi, who was at Gwandu at the time and who thought he would
succeed his brother as a matter of course. No sooner had he heard the
startling news that the Shehu had willed otherwise than a rising broke
out at Kalam Baina, near Gwandu, whose people had gone over to a
rival…but Bello…sent men to his assistance and the revolt was crushed.

“The two rulers met after the victory. Bello was
on his great war-horse, Abdullahi on a mare, as befitted his position
as a learned Mallam. Bello, being the younger man, made ready to
dismount to salute his uncle, following strict etiquette; his uncle
waved him to stay where he was and then bowed in his saddle and greeted
Bello as Commander of the Faithful. Thus by mutual tact the rift was
closed. What might have been a disastrous breach was healed, and ever
since then our two families have lived in perfect friendship and
amity.”

Even if one assumes that this account is
mythical, it illustrates how victors in the battle for ultimate
political power should treat the vanquished and how the vanquished
should behave to elide the distinction between victor and vanquished.
Contrast that behavior with that of Mr. Gbagbo and Mr. Ouattara and it
is clear that Mr. Gbagbo could learn a bit from Abdullahi. It is tragic
that so many so-called “educated” African politicians stand in dire
need of lessons today from Abdullahi.

Sir Ahmadu’s autobiography combines prophetic
streaks with sensitivity to the powerful ethnic identities, which drive
much of Africa’s politics. In congratulating the people of Ghana on
attaining independence in March 1957, he said: “Ghana will have many
hard tests to face. Perhaps the sternest test, which Ghana will have to
face, is the preservation of democracy. It is up to the Leader of Ghana
to resist all anti-democratic influences; and to resist using
undemocratic means to retain control over the country. Nigeria herself
will have to face such a test, time and time again during this century.

“The second test which confronts Ghana is the
danger of internal strife. It will be many, many years before the
peoples of Africa will respect political boundaries higher than tribal
boundaries. For many years the leaders of countries in Africa will have
the difficult task of welding together the peoples of their countries
within the political boundaries which have been artificially decided
upon by the colonial powers within the last hundred years.”

Both Ghana and Nigeria failed those tests for
several years. Mr. Gbagbo continues to fail those tests. Yet, the
resolute actions of Ecowas against Mr. Gbagbo and Cote d’Ivoire suggest
that West Africa’s leaders want to entrench democratic norms in their
region.

I am confident that 2011 will show Nigeria’s rulers abiding
internally by the democratic principles they preach outside Nigeria.
But, Nigeria requires better still. It needs incorruptible leaders like
Alhaji Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto.

The autobiography of Alhaji, Sir Ahmadu Bello,
K.B.E., M.H.A., Sardauna of Sokoto and the first premier of the
Northern Region of Nigeria in 1954, entitled “My Life,” may seem an odd
place to search for guidance in the face of the unfolding Ivorian
crisis. But, as I read about this statesman and a bit of the history of
his part of Nigeria, I realized that it had lessons for 21st century
Africa and that usurper Laurent Gbagbo.

What lessons could so-called “feudal” Africa have
for we “educated” 21st century Africans? Let us start with the art of
losing political power. The Sardauna of Sokoto, a scion of the house of
Fodio, was a descendant of the famed Fulani founder of the Sokoto
Empire, Shehu Usman dan Fodio. That empire, exercising suzerainty over
several Hausa emirates, lasted approximately a century until it
succumbed to the British colonial power in 1914 or thereabouts. How
could the Sokoto Empire last that long? Among other things, by the
subtle exercise of the art of losing political power; no system of
government can endure if it does not have a way of incorporating losers
of political office into its ongoing daily existence.

Listen to the words of the Sardauna of Sokoto:
“When the Shehu died in Sokoto in 1817 he expressed the wish that Bello
should succeed him as Sarkin Musulmi, or Commander of the Faithful for
the Western Sudan, while remaining as ruler of Sokoto in charge of the
Eastern Empire. However, this was not known to the Shehu’s brother
Abdullahi, who was at Gwandu at the time and who thought he would
succeed his brother as a matter of course. No sooner had he heard the
startling news that the Shehu had willed otherwise than a rising broke
out at Kalam Baina, near Gwandu, whose people had gone over to a
rival…but Bello…sent men to his assistance and the revolt was crushed.

“The two rulers met after the victory. Bello was
on his great war-horse, Abdullahi on a mare, as befitted his position
as a learned Mallam. Bello, being the younger man, made ready to
dismount to salute his uncle, following strict etiquette; his uncle
waved him to stay where he was and then bowed in his saddle and greeted
Bello as Commander of the Faithful. Thus by mutual tact the rift was
closed. What might have been a disastrous breach was healed, and ever
since then our two families have lived in perfect friendship and
amity.”

Even if one assumes that this account is
mythical, it illustrates how victors in the battle for ultimate
political power should treat the vanquished and how the vanquished
should behave to elide the distinction between victor and vanquished.
Contrast that behavior with that of Mr. Gbagbo and Mr. Ouattara and it
is clear that Mr. Gbagbo could learn a bit from Abdullahi. It is tragic
that so many so-called “educated” African politicians stand in dire
need of lessons today from Abdullahi.

Sir Ahmadu’s autobiography combines prophetic
streaks with sensitivity to the powerful ethnic identities, which drive
much of Africa’s politics. In congratulating the people of Ghana on
attaining independence in March 1957, he said: “Ghana will have many
hard tests to face. Perhaps the sternest test, which Ghana will have to
face, is the preservation of democracy. It is up to the Leader of Ghana
to resist all anti-democratic influences; and to resist using
undemocratic means to retain control over the country. Nigeria herself
will have to face such a test, time and time again during this century.

“The second test which confronts Ghana is the
danger of internal strife. It will be many, many years before the
peoples of Africa will respect political boundaries higher than tribal
boundaries. For many years the leaders of countries in Africa will have
the difficult task of welding together the peoples of their countries
within the political boundaries which have been artificially decided
upon by the colonial powers within the last hundred years.”

Both Ghana and Nigeria failed those tests for
several years. Mr. Gbagbo continues to fail those tests. Yet, the
resolute actions of Ecowas against Mr. Gbagbo and Cote d’Ivoire suggest
that West Africa’s leaders want to entrench democratic norms in their
region.

I am confident that 2011 will show Nigeria’s rulers abiding
internally by the democratic principles they preach outside Nigeria.
But, Nigeria requires better still. It needs incorruptible leaders like
Alhaji Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto.

Starting a new year with a blank slate of mind for inspiration should be a bit worrying.

I remember the hyped up excitement over the New
Year’s days of my youth – the niggling anxiety at not having made a
singular resolution on how to conduct my life for the next 12 months,
the determination to have the New Year meet me celebrating in the
manner in which I hoped to become accustomed.

The pursuit was almost always more exciting than
the actual moment which passed in a split second and was only
noticeable if you made it so. Nothing actually changed. The onus was
still on you to translate that difference into reality, otherwise, it
was still the same sun that rose and the same moon that set on the same
terrain as the day before. No leave no transfer, unless you forced that
belief onto yourself and found the energy to make it so.

Tossing out yesterday’s soup, simply because it
was made in the old year must be a pretty optimistic statement about
hope in the future not to mention the confidence of a well lined purse
ready to go out and buy all those ingredients again without blinking an
eyelid. Who is crazy enough to do that now? Or maybe it requires a
certain state of inebriation, a quality of numbness to achieve.

But 2011 has met us at a familiar crossroads with
travellers of the same terrain hurrying in different directions, some
on foot and others flying first class, some in mourning and some in
celebration, some braced for war and others newly bereft of shelter
facing a world of uncertainty in the days to come.

At the risk of repeating past sentiments, there is
little that is discernibly new looming ahead, and much that is worse
than it used to be. In fact the biggest, newest, thing sticking up
above the morass is the chairmanship of the Independent National
Electoral Commission, towards which we all lift up our eyes in hope.

Some of the issues we wanted to see resolved this
time in 2009 still remain. To pick just three of the most public ones,
there has been no improvement to speak of in the provision of
electricity and water to citizens, and that horrifying picture that
confronts planes heading for the Delta, the miasma of smoke billowing
from the eternal flaring of gas, a resource that other nations gladly
harness to improve the well being of their citizens, is still a
constant, since 1958; LNG 1 to 6 later; Halliburton bribery scandal
later; one millennia later…still burning after all these years.

At some point in the past I said to myself enough
with all this focus on new resolutions, and just keep on with
implementing and improving on the old ones. My concerns were never with
what to do but with how to be. One particular year, I think it was
sometime in the mid eighties I resolved after a particularly rocky year
buffeted by other people’s political aspirations during which I had
been turned into a chess piece by various and sundry characters, that
it would profit me to listen more to my instincts and pay closer
attention to reading people around me.

We are poised yet again on some kind of brink,
defined as usual by uncertainty, but it really depends on the extent of
your inebriation as to whether you are feeling it or not.

Nigeria is a huge country and the problems of
communication within it keep it so, which is probably a blessing for
now. Western commentators tend to notice these schisms quicker than we
do but often do not have the subtlety to read the portents. We do not
boil over as much as heat up to a slow simmer that ends up changing the
consistency of the soup into something else with a different boiling
point and a more lethal concentration of elements.

Against this background a blank slate becomes very
attractive, unmarked by the flares or violence that keep igniting over
the country, free of the question marks over who will win that key
nomination and what the consequences could be, unblemished by that dark
cloud of doubt over what it will take to inspire the citizens to demand
the respect for their leaders that they must first believe they deserve.

Nigeria’s national
print media in this last week has all the hallmarks of holding
politicians to account. It is encouraging to see columnists asking
probing questions of candidates for political office.

In Rivers State
long-time PDP stalwart Dr. Abiye Sekibo announced his switch from the
PDP to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) as a means to advance his
thwarted governorship aspirations. The success of Governor Rotimi
Amaechi presents a major and apparently insurmountable obstacle to Dr.
Sekibo’s ambition to secure the PDP nomination so the simple solution
is to switch parties. Inherent in this play is that Sekibo never really
endorsed the PDP principles. But neither has he bothered yet to expound
the ACN principles.

Herein lies one of
the fascinating aspects of Nigerian politics. If a candidate thinks he
or she may not win under their current party then simply switch
parties. The foundation principles of the party seem to be irrelevant.
Clearly it’s all about securing office and not about party principles
or serving the people.

To justify his move
to a new platform Dr. Sekibo pours cold water on all Governor Amaechi’s
achievements in his first term as governor of Rivers State. Governor
Amaechi has delivered on more projects and reforms in his state than
most governors produce in two terms. But Dr. Sekibo attempts to deflect
attention from Governor Amaechi’s achievements by dismissing them out
of hand.

Dr. Sekibo cannot
rewrite history, which relates his support for Ateke Tom when state and
national authorities were hunting Tom in 2004 and 2005. In fact Sekibo
was harbouring Tom from police in Abuja at a time when Sekibo was the
Federal Transport Minister. Dr. Sekibo has shown himself to be a
political godfather of gang bosses hired to subvert elections and
intimidate opponents. Ateke Tom has accepted the amnesty and professes
to be a changed man endorsing peace throughout the Niger Delta. Has
Sekibo changed?

When Sekibo was
asked about allegations that the chairman of ACN in Rivers State has
sold the chapter to him and adopted him as the uncontested candidate
for the governorship in 2011 he simply avoided the question. The ACN
will do its members a grave disservice by such actions. Members of the
Rivers State chapter of the ACN should immediately launch an
investigation into these allegations.

In the presidential
race former vice president and current presidential aspirant Atiku
Abubakar, made an ambiguous and possibly damaging statement that he may
now regret, when he quoted former US President, John F. Kennedy who
said: ‘Those who make peaceful change impossible; make violent change
inevitable’. Since making the statement Atiku has been besieged with
allegations that he was issuing a call to violence and therein made a
treasonable utterance.

Former military
President Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida leapt to Atiku’s defence claiming
Atiku has no intentions of inciting violence. IBB’s support for Atiku
may simply be a case of not wanting to see a Northern candidate dealt
an electoral blow. Undoubtedly Atiku, who doubtless thought quoting
J.F.K. would be a nice touch and align himself with one his American
heroes, will now privately regret the statement. But the reaction to
the statement demonstrates the close scrutiny that every candidate’s
public statements undergo and the fear of the potential violence that
elections attract.

In Jos the recent
bombings and continuing violence provide a worrying sign of unrest that
some political candidates will feed on in the run up to the April
elections, unless the situation is quickly contained. State governments
in the Middle Belt have largely failed to contain such violence that is
most often attributed to religious clashes. But exaggerating religious
differences is a favourite tool of those wishing to exploit religion as
a political weapon.

The Federal
Government has an overwhelming responsibility to work with religious
leaders to promote tolerance, understanding and harmony. Any political
candidate found to be implicated in promoting such conflict must be
dealt with immediately with the full force of the law.

In the Niger Delta
elections in the current democratic dispensation have been accompanied
by escalating violence which has served to put many locations off
limits to electoral scrutineers and media thus permitting election
fraud on a grand scale. The Federal Government must use the goodwill
established through the recent amnesty process to remove any public
sympathy from promoters of violence under whatever guise. Political
godfathers and candidates associated with supporting or recruiting
gangs, cult groups, vigilantes or like groups must be dealt with
immediately with the full force of the law as advocated in the Middle
Belt situation.

It is only when the
Federal Government shows a zero tolerance for electoral fraud and
violence used to secure political office that Nigeria will see a
significant improvement in the standard of politics and candidates.

Dr Stephen Davis
has served as an advisor to President Obasanjo, Presidential Envoy
under President Yar’Adua and is the author of The Report on the
Potential for Peace and Reconciliation in the Niger Delta.

The biggest challenge facing Nigerians this year
will no doubt be the April elections, at which new state and federal
legislators, new governors (in the majority of states), and a new
president will be elected. In effect, the ‘story’ of the next four
years will be written in the coming months.

The question on the minds of many Nigerians is
this: will the 2011 elections be more credible than the 2007 elections,
which were roundly condemned by local and international observers?

Signs abound that the kind of change Nigerians can
believe in is nowhere in sight. The delegates’ congresses of the ruling
PDP have been attended by protests and violence in several states. Last
week, the Oyo State congress degenerated into a gunfight that claimed
the lives of at least three persons.

A major test of INEC’s readiness to conduct
credible elections will be the voters’ registration exercise, scheduled
to commence on January 15. Direct Data Capture machines are already
being distributed across the country. It is vital that Nigerians keep
an eye on the registration, knowing that there can be no credible
elections without a credible register of eligible voters.

We expect INEC at the end of the registration
period, to formally release a list of all ‘captured’ voters, in time
for errors to be corrected and amendments made well before the
elections. A May 2007 statement released by the Academic Staff Union of
Universities, which observed the 2007 elections, noted that during the
now heavily discredited elections, “[t]here was widespread and
deliberate manipulation of the Voters’ Registers (sic) lists. Not only
were there no display of the Voters Registers (sic) lists in most wards
and local governments; where there was a display, a lot of names were
omitted.” INEC should ensure that there is no room for manipulation
this time around. We need to point out that the electoral commission
should not make the mistake of assuming that electronic data capture
will prevent manipulation – in most cases technology remains
subservient to human will, and the most sophisticated systems are
always at the mercy of manipulation by determined human intelligence.

The theft, a few weeks ago, of a number of these
machines, from a storage facility at the Murtala Mohammed International
Airport, is evidence that electoral manipulators remain as interested
as ever in the electoral process.

Nigerians should remember that in the months
leading to the elections, candidates will hop off their high horses in
a bid to woo the electorate. Governments will back down on
controversial policies, in a bid to avoid alienating voters; and
long-withheld salaries and pensions will be hurriedly paid. Communities
will be flooded with boreholes and culverts and free textbooks and all
manner of heaven-on-earth promises.

At times like this, there is nothing more vital
than a healthy sense of skepticism on the part of the electorate. The
redrawing of electoral maps in the recent past – from the PDP’s loss of
three states in a Southwest it once controlled, to the ACN’s loss, a
week ago, of the Ikorodu Constituency II seat to the PDP – is evidence
that the votes of Nigerian citizens actually count, despite evidence to
the contrary.

The world’s attention will increasingly focus on
Nigeria as April approaches. Nigeria’s population and resource wealth
means that every time we go to the polls, the world will be watching
with bated breath. The fact that the most recent elections in Kenya,
Ghana, Zimbabwe and Cote d’Ivoire all ended in stalemate (with
bloodshed in some cases) will not be helping matters.

When 2010 kicked off, the biggest challenge facing
Nigerians was finding out where their elected president was, and what
the state of his health was. In the absence of leadership, the country
entered the New Year ravaged by fuel scarcity. This year, thankfully,
we have been spared that. On several other fronts however, nothing has
changed. We are still generating less than 4,000MW of electricity,
despite all the ‘reform’ noise of the current administration.

On Christmas Eve, President Jonathan, in a
Facebook message to Nigerians, boasted: “While there was tension in
some parts of the North last Christmas, this Christmas those tensions
have eased.” That same day, a series of bomb blasts tore through Jos,
claiming tens of victims. Since then the senseless violence has erupted
in Maiduguri as well, and the entire country lies in the grip of a
general air of insecurity.

As we wish Nigerians a happy and prosperous New
Year, we’d like to send out a reminder that the happiness and
prosperity of this year, and of the next couple of years, are directly
linked to the kind of leaders we will be electing into office come
April.

Only a
non-Nigerian, would read any sinister meaning into that debacle at the
airport this December 2010. As we love to say: ‘NA TODAY?’ For years
now Nigerians and other visitors to the country have had their luggage
pilfered at the airport; it’s no big deal! In fact, I am sure that even
people in ‘power’ have had the experience. Add to that the fact that we
do not expect the luggage to be found either; the only luggage we often
recover is that left behind by an airline in the country from where you
came, and that’s because you left it behind! Once luggage arrives here
and goes missing, perish the thought of recovery! It would be so
amateurish of airport ‘rats’ that are normally quite ‘sharp’ about
these things, with buyers and fences waiting to move the goods along
too. We just LOVE imported things and that is the attraction for goods
coming in through any of the ports.

The solution is to devise ways to frustrate the person who nicks your luggage.

Don’t put the parts of a whole unit together in the same package; for example,

separate your shoes
by putting all left feet in one bag and right feet in another. Take
pleasure in knowing that even the taker won’t enjoy the shoes.

And that seems to
be what saved the day for us! What was stolen were parts of a whole,
which meant nothing could be compromised as far as the elections were
concerned. Therefore the only reason we heard about this particular
airport theft was because of the nature of the stolen items: election
materials, no less! Of course, we all know that these Direct Data
Capturing [DDC] machines cost us N87b which demand Professor JEGA, the
Chairman of the Independent Electoral Commission [INEC], had sprung on
us suddenly Furthermore, we were told that without that money, the
Commission could not guarantee anything.

Naturally, one’s first thought that some N87b had gone down the drain.

Thankfully, it’s nothing like that. At least, that’s what I think- and I’ll tell you why.

Even as you read
this, things are still being pilfered at the airport, and they will
still be going missing till the end of time, because we never did
anything to stop the thefts when they started. We were only momentarily
embarrassed about this because the world is watching to see what we
make of ourselves in 2011. If we were bothered, don’t you think someone
would have been sacked for incompetence, negligence or whatever ‘-ence’
one can dream up or, (heaven forbid!) actually resigned?

Yes, laugh! Even I
chuckle at the thought of someone resigning for anything, even if the
incident fuels continuing cynicism about who we really are. Why? Am I
not a Nigerian? Don’t I, of all people, know the constraints we all
labour under? The ‘special advisers’ will soon advise us that it is a
‘systemic failure of all of us’; after all, if the minister,
subordinate or even the cleaner is sacked, will that stop the pilfering
at the airports?

NEXT newspaper
carried reports about how amused members of staff who worked at the
airports were, over the furore the missing DDC machines caused.

And they were not being cynical: it was just a statement of fact that things ‘walk’ at the ports.

Secondly, one
refuses to accept that the people who want to rig elections are so
scared that they’ll resort to stealing DDC machines at the airport.
Please! You credit them with too much sophistication. Why anyone will
not pay good money [which they have!] to get professionals to do
something well beats me. Or how do you explain an election result where
someone won by 15,000 votes, when only 12,000 voters were registered in
the place, and yet the winning party was not the only party that got
votes?

We don’t rig by
stealing machines; imagine the stress of finding who will operate the
thing? We do not pay attention to detail in that forensic mathematical
way you see in FBI documentaries. We rig openly because nothing ever
happens to riggers anyway.

Did you not know that some people had INEC registration machines in
their homes before the 2007 elections? Did anyone get prosecuted? So,
it is not a big deal to get a DDC machine if you are determined to have
it and the authorities don’t mind you having it. The electoral
commission has never come out to denounce the voters’ registration
lists that emerged from such a compromised environment, has it? Have
they refused to use the lists? The theft of the DDC machines is only
another small evidence of the larger picture we now see: FAILURE!