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A House of
Representatives member from Ogun State, Kayode Amusan, yesterday said
some people are trying to assassinate him. Mr Amusan’s allegation came
following an attack on his vehicle by suspected killers, who eventually
shot dead his police orderly in the Mowe axis of the Lagos-Sagamu
Expressway.

But the Ogun State
Police Command in a swift reaction through the Public Relations
Officer, Muyiwa Adejobi, said it was an armed robbery attack and an
assassination attempt as alleged by Mr. Amusan.

The lawmaker, while
narrating the incident to newsmen in Abeokuta, said “It was an
assassination attempt on my person by suspected assassins sponsored by
powerful persons in Ogun State, it was providence that saved me from
being killed when the Hilux Pick-Up van was stormed in a savage attack
by yet to be identified gunmen,” he said.

He said he was away
to the Southeastern part of the country for an important trip when the
attackers struck, but explained that information at his disposal had it
that the assailants accosted his pilot vehicle, thinking he was inside
and were demanding from the victims, his whereabouts.

“They thought I was
inside the car. They were asking them where is your Oga? They shot one,
tied his hand and from Mowe, they carried him and dropped him in
Obadaoko. I have a premonition that some people are trailing me,” Mr
Amusan said.

Earlier warnings

The lawmaker who is
now seeking for a return to the lower house added that prior to the
attack, he had received telephone calls from many people, all warning
him to beef up his security as he has been marked for “elimination” by
those not favourably disposed to his recent political ambition to go to
the Senate.

However, Muyiwa
Adejobi, the police image-maker while denying the allegation said “It
is a lie, Amusan was not even inside the Hilux car with registration
number XA 608KJA which was snatched by armed robbers.” “Robbers came to
attack the vehicle, whose occupant was one Raphael Bell and other
occupants, the man was shot by the robbers, as well as another person
who was killed by them and we got to know later was a policeman.” He
said the robbers snatched the vehicle and the police are still trying
to recover it. “I want to tell you that, it was never a case of
assassination as being painted by Amusan, we should not politicise all
issues. Amusan has no connection over the incident.

So am surprised that he now came out to say he was to be assassinated that is not correct and it’s a lie,” Mr Adejobi said.

The Senate on Tuesday deferred passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) by one week, following its failure to form a quorum.

Only 23 senators –
10 short of required minimum – attended Tuesday’s sitting presided over
by the deputy Senate president, Ike Ekwerenmadu.

The PIB was, however, not also properly signed by all four committees that participated in reviewing it.

Chairman of the
Senate joint committee on the draft law, Lee Maeba, presented the
report of the committee which recommended its passage without the
signature of the Senate committee on gas, headed by Osita Izunaso.

Mr. Maeba said his
committee submitted the edited copy of the bill last December, but it
has been held back by the refusal of some participating committees to
sign.

“We asked Senator
Osita to bring the signatures, since December; he continued saying he
will bring it, but we have not seen it,” Mr. Maeba said.

Though the Senate
passed three other bills without quorum, Mr. Ekweremadu ruled that the
bill be shelved till Tuesday 15 March, 2010, to allow for the inclusion
of signatures of the members of the Senate committee on gas.

He also cited poor attendance and lack of update on the provisions of the bill as reasons for the postponement of the passage.

The bill, which was
introduced into both chambers of the assembly in December 2008, has
suffered series of delays due to disagreements on its provisions by
various parties.

Host communities,
indigenous oil companies, and federal lawmakers from the oil producing
Niger Delta had, during the public hearing on the bill, insisted they
will not support it unless some sections were amended to favour the
communities.

Other industry relevant groups have also raised some serious concerns over the bill through its period of legislation.

It is, however, not clear if the issues raised by the various interest groups were addressed in the bill.

Yesterday, some
members of the House of Representatives accused the Nigerian National
Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) of frustrating their efforts on PIB by
tendering different versions of the bill and yet proposing another
amendment.

Chairman of the
House committee on gas resources, Igo Aguma, said the NNPC is seeking
to create the impression that the bill is unduly delayed at the
National Assembly while it was working to undermine the work of the
lawmakers.

“Charlatans”

The deputy Senate
president said his colleagues will not be “blackmailed” into passing
the bill. He described those who had protested the delay in passing the
bill to the National Assembly the previous day as “charlatans.”

The coordinator of
the protesters, David Ugolor, while reacting to the comments of the
deputy Senate President, however, said it was “shameless and
disgraceful for a legislator to describe peaceful protesters as
charlatans.”

“For the Deputy
Senate President to call civil society groups that came here yesterday
(Monday) to protest without any violence as charlatans is very
disgraceful. Do you know that to access these Senators is very
difficult? We resist any effort to frustrate the passage of the bill
because its passage will benefit Nigerians,” Mr. Ugolor said.

The report presented by Mr. Maeba listed the benefits of PIB to the Nigerian economy and the petroleum industry.

These include: “A strong and virile regulatory framework for overall
efficiency of the petroleum industry; maximisation of the benefits of
exploitation of Nigerian petroleum resources through increase in
government revenue; overcoming government’s cash call problems; and
promotion of availability of gas for electricity production.”

The movement of
Gbenga Daniel’s supporters to the People’s Party of Nigeria (PPN) with
the aim of contesting in the forthcoming elections in Ogun State may
end up being a futile mission. Investigations have revealed that the
party has submitted the names of all its candidates for the election
hence, there is no vacant position for the defecting members. The group
had on Sunday left the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), following
the Federal Court judgment which nullified its list of candidates and
upheld the list of former President Olusegun Obasanjo which produced
Tunji Olurin as the party’s governorship flag bearer.

The governorship
candidate of Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN) in the INEC released list
is Enisenyin Ayodeji Rasaq and his running mate is Durojaiye Omowunmi
Comfort. This is contrary to the group’s desire to field Isiaka Gboyega
as the governorship candidate. The INEC approved list shows that the
party has candidates in all the three senatorial districts, eight
candidates for House of Representatives and fifteen House of Assembly
Candidates. This has left members of Mr Daniel’s faction in confusion.

Substitution of candidates

While reacting to
whether there is a list of substitutes from INEC, the Administrative
Secretary of INEC in the state, Ebenezer Fakorode, said, “I have not
gotten any list, we have not gotten any other than the one we got three
weeks ago.” When asked if INEC is expecting a new list, Mr Fakorode
said, “I don’t know, nobody told us anything at Abuja. No information
rather than the one we have three weeks ago. I am a civil servant, I
don’t know anything.” But the State Publicity Secretary of PPN, Raheem
Ajayi, said, “We have done the substitution before the end of deadline
given by INEC,” arguing that it is the function of the electoral body
to bring out and publish list of candidates.

Mr Ajayi who
doubles as Mr Daniel’s Special Adviser on Youth and Sports said “I can
tell you that, they (INEC) have given us acknowledgement,” recalling
that the earlier injunction gotten by the Olurin group was ‘like a
judgment, hence we have to be proactive and swung into action to
perfect our defection before now.’

New posters with PPN logo

Meanwhile, the group has commenced production of new posters with PPN logo to project the party in the state.

NEXT gathered that
the candidates are now working round the clock individually and
collectively for mass production of their posters which is expected to
be pasted all over the state. Similarly, the party has established a
secretariat which is located at 77a Vaughan Street, Adedotun in
Abeokuta.

The building which
is also residential had the party’s flag hoisted in front of it, the
state chairman of the party, Rasaq Eyiowuawi gave assurance of a speedy
transformation of the secretariat.

Mr Ajayi said events of the past weeks in Ogun State have shown that the PDP in the state is dysfunctional.

Fourteen political
parties, including the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), have
rejected a new set of guidelines on the conduct of political parties
during elections, issued yesterday by the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) in Abuja. The new rules are designed to
encourage political parties to respect electoral laws, while
maintaining only the legally allowable financing window for their
campaigns, INEC said.

Of the 63
registered political parties yesterday, some 47 signed the document — a
review of the code of conduct used in 2007; thus accepting to live with
a new era of “civility and tolerance in politics” as described by the
commission’s chairperson, Attahiru Jega.

Rebels with a cause

But notably,
officials of the PDP, the African Renaissance Party (ARP) and 12 other
parties withheld their signatures to the document, protesting some of
the provisions in a move that is certain to exacerbate concerns over
the approaching elections and the primacy of the electoral body over
parties. The Action Alliance (AA) and Alliance for Democracy (AD) were
disallowed from participating due to legal crisis over positions in the
party. The PDP said INEC had violated an agreement reached with
political parties that some sections of the document would be amended
before the signing ceremony to allow the PDP, as the ruling party
holding 28 states, more representation on a committee of party
chairpersons stipulated in the document. Other parties, including the
Labour Party, the National Democratic Party and the ARP, described the
document as “vexatious and unnecessary,” since requirements on ethics
during polls have been stated in the Electoral Act. The LP and the NCP
however later signed and adopted the document.

“We signed a
similar document in 2007, and the document burned our fingers,” said
Dan Iwanyanwu, the national chairman of the Labour Party. “Under
(Maurice) Iwu, INEC did not keep its side of the bargain. The document
says no party should announce elections result, but they allowed that.”
The NCP chairman, Chudi Chukwani, said remarks made by judges in past
election lawsuits underscored the fact that instead of the political
parties, the problems with the elections in Nigeria lies with the
electoral body.

‘Unfair decisions’

Many opposition
political parties accused the commission of being impartial in the
past, alleging that Nigerians are already witnessing a repeat of unfair
decisions by INEC with the controversial substitution and replacement
of names of candidates for the elections. They told Mr. Jega that while
he may be pursuing true reforms, the situation in the states call for
greater attention and advised him to organize a forum where their
‘findings” from the field could be discussed. The allegations, coming
three weeks to the elections, reinforce growing concerns about the
capacity of the commission to reassure the political class about its
fairness. For instance, while the code of conduct has named a committee
of chairpersons of all political parties to promote fairness and equal
opportunity, the PDP said a sub-committee should also be named that
will take into consideration the numerical strength of each party at
the leadership position.

“The composition of the executive should reflect fairness. There
should be a sub-committee, a steering committee in which the
composition will be constituted with regards to the number of offices
held by the parties,” said the national secretary of the PDP, Abubakar
Baraje after announcing the party’s decision to shun the signing of the
code of conduct. He said chances are that the party will eventually
sign if “we are allowed to make some inputs.” “There are some areas we
are not comfortable with.

That does not mean that the PDP is not
working with INEC or other parties. Sure, if I’m given an opportunity
to make my input, then we can sign it. That’s the mandate of my party,”
he said. Mr. Jega played down the boycott, saying the signing was
optional and again, by the agreement reached with all the parties
earlier, the document would come into force one assented to by 50
percent or more parties. With 47, they got about 75 percent.

It isn’t exactly Tunisia, Egypt or Libya, but Americans are
watching an uprising of their own unfold and wondering if it’s going to set the
tone for a lot more trouble ahead.

“These passions are going to run so hot that we don’t know
where they’re going to come out and we run the risk of something tragic
happening here,” said Dale Schultz, a Republican lawmaker in the normally
serene state of Wisconsin.

In normal times, Wisconsin may be best known for its popular
cheddar, passionate football fans and people who combine the two – attending
sporting events in elaborate hats shaped like enormous wedges of cheese.

But like many other U.S. states, Wisconsin is short of money.
So its governor has introduced legislation to reduce benefits for public
employees and curtail their bargaining rights in future negotiations with the
state.

Thousands of irate workers took to the streets and occupied the
building that houses the Wisconsin legislature. Media reports said that
supporters around the country and even around the world called in orders to a
local pizza delivery restaurant to help keep them well fed.

A photo purported to be from Cairo’s Tahrir Square became an
online hit, with the image of a protester displaying a sign that reads: “Egypt
supports Wisconsin.” Lawmakers from the union-friendly Democratic Party fled to
neighbouring states to deny the Republican governor the quorum he needs to get
his plan approved.

The drama wasn’t just a modest domestic version of the
incomparably more serious uprisings in the Middle East. It was a signal to
Americans that the painful budget cuts familiar to people in many nations are
about to hit them too.

Lawmakers in Washington are fighting over how to reduce federal
government spending.

State and city governments across the country are in much bigger
trouble because they can’t borrow to cover their budgets as easily as Uncle
Sam.

Public payrolls are an obvious place to look for savings but
there is a broad consensus that all kinds of cuts are coming.

There will probably be plenty of anger ahead, even after Libya,
Tunisia and Egypt have settled down.

Jonathan Mann presents
Political Mann on CNN International each Friday at 18:30 (CAT), Saturday at 3pm
and 9pm (CAT), and Sunday at 10am (CAT).

Kayode Fayemi,
Ekiti State governor, on Monday appealed to the federal government for
the speedy execution and completion of the proposed housing scheme for
all teachers in the state. The governor was speaking during the signing
and presentation of certificates of occupancy to the delegation of the
Federal Ministry of Education who visited his office in Ado Ekiti for
the takeoff of the Housing for All Teachers (HAT) Scheme. Mr. Fayemi,
who commended the federal government for the initiative, advised that
the prompt completion of the project would motivate teachers to take
jobs in towns like Aramoko, Ikere and Otun Ekiti in
Ekiti Central, South and North Senatorial Districts of the state.

Reward on earth

Mr. Fayemi said
that teachers constituted a significant percentage of the workforce in
the state and that they remained one of the potent forces that had
propelled the civil service, as well as the economy of the state.

“It must be
demonstrated by government at all levels that it is not a curse to be a
teacher but a pride. Their well being must be a topmost priority, so
that they can realize that they can also get their benefits here on
earth,” Mr. Fayemi said. The governor appealed to the Federal Ministry
of Education to make all logistics that would facilitate the smooth
takeoff of the project in the state.

“I am not from any
of the three towns suggested to the federal government for the takeoff
of the project. I don’t believe in that and I will never encourage it,
because that is not how government operates,” he said.

The officer in charge of HAT in the state, Sally Aguta, said
education remained the most effective weapon to drive away illiteracy
and poverty in any developing nation and that it should not be treated
with levity.

NEXT is the only organization in Nigeria with the full wikileaks cable on Nigeria. This is the timeline of the worldwide exclusive revelations

March 6, 2011

‘Jonathan voted four times in 2007’

Wikileaks CABLE: ‘Jonathan voted four times in 2007’

The ugly truth

Oronto Douglas, the special assistant to the president on strategy,
expresses optimism that his boss has done enough to win.

Why Jonathan deserves the votes of Nigerians

Because his story
is one that most Nigerians can relate to. It is also one that best
illustrates the positive attributes of this nation. He never had
opportunity of shoes when he was going to school, just like millions of
Nigerians. He had no school bag to put his school notes in. He had to
trek kilometres to get to school. Yet he never despaired, in his words.
He showed fortitude, like millions of ordinary Nigerians. There are
problems besetting Nigerians, but they continue to strive to better
their individual lots. So a man of that pedigree, who did not allow the
circumstance of his youth to stop him from achieving his goals in life,
represents the best aspiration of Nigerians. Of course, he also enjoys
the support of God, without which most of his achievements would not
have been possible.

There has been a visible hand of God in Jonathan’s
life. I think 99.9 percent of Nigerians can identify with that. He is a
president that every household can look up to and be filled with hope,
that their child who is today selling akara or carrot can tomorrow be
president of the country. Mr. Jonathan has also promised to make sure
that the infrastructure that will make that possible is put in place in
the next four years that he will be in power. His emergence has
rewritten the story of who can lead Nigeria. He has shown that Nigeria
is a nation for all, rather than for a section or a clique. I also
think if you give Nigeria to people who will sell the destiny of the
country, then we will be in bigger trouble. The president has
consistently said all he has is in Nigeria. He schooled in Nigeria and
his children are being schooled in Nigeria. This is not to disparage
those who schooled abroad, but it is where your heart is that you will
defend at all cost. So in terms of commitment, I can confidently say
there are few Nigerians as devoted to this country as President
Jonathan. I respect all the other presidential [candidates], but we are
saying at this time in our history, this man that has been in office
for the past nine months and has laid out plans to rescue the nation is
best placed to execute the plan and that man is President Jonathan.

Friction within the PDP following the primaries

The PDP is seen by
many as a party whose ticket is halfway to getting to office. But
people should know that this is a new PDP, where the most popular and
competent candidates are picked to run elections. However, in places
where there are constitutional issues, the strategy that President
Jonathan and the PDP are adopting is dialogue. I can tell you that with
respect to Ogun State, there was a time the president did not sleep for
two days. He held meetings with the Jubril Martins Kuye and Gbenga
Daniel groups and, at a point, brought all of them together at the
Villa. The president is a man of peace and always tells people, “I have
no enemies to fight. I want all of us to work together.” You remember
that after presidential primaries, which he won, he still went out of
his way to drive to Adamu Ciroma’s house to have a discussion with a
view to keeping the party together. His view was that a statesman of
Ciroma’s stature cannot be ignored. He also wants to be president of
all, not president of a section or region.

Criticism of president’s ‘rascal’ comment

In the statement,
the president praised southwesterners for their sophistication and high
level of education. If a statement regarding that is being taken out of
context and used for political purpose, it is unfortunate. The
President, as a true statesman would came out to say, ‘I take
responsibility for this statement, I offer my sincere regrets in this
regard, that what I meant is to celebrate the excellence, greatness and
leadership of South-West people. It is unfortunate that one or two
individuals are appropriating it and pushing it to mean insulting the
most educated and sophisticated people. The president will never insult
his elders and leaders. If you knew the president well, he always
answers ‘sir’ to anyone who is older than him. He will never insult the
elders, leaders and people of the South-West. Take note that the
president is educated, he did his NYSC in the South-West, has friends
from the South-West and is one person who never forgets. Some of those
he did youth service with from the South-West are now working with him.

The scanty crowd at the presidential Kaduna rally

My observation is
that the crowd in Kaduna had been sitting there from 7am. As at the
time the President and the dignitaries arrived, people were very tired.
Take note, they were zonal rallies and most of the people had to return
to their homes. People came from Sokoto, Kebbi and Kano and I believe
that in a place like that, it is like what happened in Port Harcourt,
when the occasion ended, people wanted to go back to their buses and
travel. So, if the day is getting dark, you will want to get back home.
The zonal rally was organised by the zonal coordinator who is from
Kastina. The president won 53 percent of the votes of the North-West
delegates at the PDP rally. He may have lost in some states, but he won
with 53 percent over all, meaning that he had overwhelming support of
the people. Democracy is about majority. At the election proper, what
the president needs is 25 percent and he got more than that in majority
of these states. Ordinary people in the North-West love Jonathan. Why
would they not love him? He relates with them.

Challenges of the northwest for PDP

Every other
candidate has work to do in every zone. Buhari has work to do in the
South-West. He has work to do in the South-East, South-West and in the
North-Central, North-East and North-West. Is it everybody in the
North-West that loves Buhari? Nuhu Ribadu has work to do in every
single zone. So, the challenges are challenges that are not restricted
to one person. Let me just say that we have a lot of people who will
like to identify with the president, his history and all that.

Alleged poor performance of the PDP in the last 12 years

The president came
to transform Nigeria. We believe the place to start is transforming the
PDP and the president has started that work. The PDP as a party has
been in office for close to 12 years. There are perceptions about the
PDP that may not be salutary to Nigerians. However, the determination
of President Jonathan is to transform all aspects of our lives. The
opposition has been very careful not to attack President Jonathan as a
person. So they have been attacking the PDP. Well, if I was working for
the opposition, I would probably adopt that strategy because Jonathan
is popular with the Nigerian people. So he is fully aware that the PDP
will be attacked and at some point the opposition will also attack him.
Look at the statement he made in Ibadan, for example, that was blown
out of proportion. I am a beneficiary of Obafemi Awolowo’s free
education. If I am advising the president, would I tell him to do
anything against the South-West? The president did his NYSC in the
Southwest and has a lot of friends in the zone. Would he now do
anything against the people?

The alleged mismanagement of the economy by the federal government

The President has
been in the office for nine months. He promised what we call the three
Es. He looked at Electoral reform, Electricity and Energy security. He
believed there cannot be good government if you do not have
constitutional and robust process for selecting the leaders who will
govern the country. In practical terms of electoral reforms, he
decided, ‘let us practicalise what we are preaching.’ When the first
bye-election came up in the Edo Central, he said it was one of the
first test of free and fair elections. He told INEC and security
agencies that what he wanted was one man, one vote; one woman, one
vote; one youth, one vote. The president insisted on free and fair
election and the ACN won. Edo State governor, Adams Oshiomhole flew
from Benin to Abuja to congratulate and thank the president for
standing on the rule of law and insisting on free and fair election.
That is the benchmark for this election.

On energy security, it is
important that we note that before now, people stay on the queue for
hours, while some people sleep overnight in filling stations. People
were sleeping three days, three nights in filling stations. Now, that
is a thing of the past. Secondly, the same amount you pay for a litre
of fuel you buy in Lagos is what you are going to pay if you buy in
Maidugiri. There has also been improvement in power generation and this
will continue to be improved upon over time.

The attributes of integrity and
incorruptibility are factors that could sway the votes in the entire
North West geo-political zone in favour of Nigeria’s former military
ruler, Muhammadu Buhari.

Mr Buhari who is aspiring for the
presidency on the platform of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC)
will also be at home in the zone due to religious and ethnic
considerations.

From Sokoto down to Zamfara,
Kebbi, Katsina, Kaduna and Kano States, the majority of the voting
population who are adherents of the Islamic religion are most likely
going to see Mr Buhari as one who will protect their constitutionally
guaranteed rights to freedom of worship.

A pointer to this could be
discerned going by the recent action of a prominent Islamic scholar and
the Chief Imam of the Farfaru Juma’at in Sokoto State, Abubakar Jibril,
who was caught allegedly defacing the campaign posters of President
Goodluck Jonathan. The cleric who was accused of inciting public
disturbance is now being detained at the Force Criminal Investigation
Department in Abuja.

There are thousands of Mr Jibril
all over the zone that is home to Islamic hardliners who may never
sacrifice Mr Buhari for any of the presidential candidates. Even fellow
Muslims like All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) presidential candidate,
Ibrahim Shekarau, and Action Congress of Nigeria’s (ACN) Nuhu Ribadu,
who are considered as upstarts, are unlikely going to reap from the
dividends of this sentiment.

The writing on the wall

Shortly after the presidential
primaries of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that saw the
emergence of Mr Jonathan as the flag bearer of the party, the social
media were awash with innuendos, branding all the northern governors
who are adherents of the Islamic faith with labels such as “pope,
pastor, reverend father, bishop, primate and evangelist,” all in a bid
to portray them as those who have betrayed their brothers from the same
faith.

Former governor of Kano State,
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who led Kano State delegates to the Abuja PDP
convention, has assumed a status of a folk hero in the state today for
throwing his weight behind Mr Abubakar, based on the same religious and
regional sentiments.

Ironically, Mr Kwankwaso was at
the receiving end at the 2003 polls because he openly canvassed support
for former President Olusegun Obasanjo who contested against Mr Buhari.
At that time, the electorate not only branded Mr Kwankwaso as a
“pharaoh”, they roundly tossed him out of power with ignominy.

Religion undoubtedly was used as
one of the major tools by Mr Shekarau who defeated Mr Kwankwaso at the
poll. Therefore, Mr Kwankwaso’s support for Mr Abubakar in the PDP
Presidential primary election might not be unconnected with the lesson
learnt in 2003.

In Kano State these days,
campaign posters of Mr Jonathan are not common. Even the PDP chieftains
vying for various positions avoid being associated with Mr Jonathan’s
poster like a plague. Interestingly, in one of the strategic locations
in Kano, NEXT observed a poster carrying the pictures of Mr Kwankwaso
and that of Mr Buhari. In Jigawa State, the story is not different, as
the state governor, Sule Lamido, was allegedly stoned in Hadejia town
recently by youth who were not happy with the 100 percent support for
Jonathan at the PDP Presidential Primary election.

Integrity is gain

The voters in Kano, just as in
other parts of the zone, see in Mr Buhari someone who is not out to
enrich himself to the detriment of the masses in Nigeria. While
pointing at his no-nonsense stewardship as military head of state and
as head of the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) as one of the golden eras of
transparent and accountable governance in Nigeria, they believe that
Nigeria still requires Mr Buhari’s services to correct the ills of the
society.

Though the CPC is facing some
organisational challenges in virtually all the states of the zone, it
is unlikely to affect the prospect of Mr Buhari at the poll.

Muhammad Kabiru Gwangwazo is a
leader of the CPC in Kano and was Mr Buhari’s campaign coordinator in
2003. He believes strongly that Mr Buhari will have an easy ride in the
North West and the entire northern states.

“Even if Buhari didn’t campaign
in the Northwest, he will win easily, because the people trust him; he
has done before and will do it again if voted to power. I want to
assure you that out of the over 18 million people that registered from
the Northwest, Mr Buhari will get 15 million.” Rabiu Bako who is the
Kano State Secretary of the ANPP disagrees with Mr Gwangwazo, saying
that Mr Shekarau is the person that will win in the zone.

“If you look, the agitation of
the majority is that they want change from the old people; they know
Buhari, because he was there; they saw what he did and they don’t want
him again. This is what the people are saying.

“Look, our candidate, Shekarau,
is the best among these people. Look at what he has done in Kano in the
last eight years, nobody has achieved this feat before. We want him to
go and do the same at the federal level because this PDP government has
failed Nigerians in the last 12 years.” For Mr Shekarau, no doubt he
has done well in Kano State in the last eight years and he still enjoys
mass appeal from the Kano populace, however, his major obstacle is that
the ANPP is not popular in the North West because it is a PDP-dominated
zone. In addition, he is a green horn politically in the zone. Although
he has been governor of Kano in the last eight years, he cannot match
the pedigree of Mr Buhari in the North West, who many perceive as
incorruptible and has the common man in mind.

Notwithstanding, Mr Shekarau is
still upbeat about his chances; that he can defeat an incumbent in the
election. On a recent BBC programme, ‘Hard Talk,’ he made reference to
how he defeated Mr Kwankwaso, an incumbent, in 2003.

Mr Buhari holds sway in Kano, as
the electorate would massively vote for him irrespective of the party
affiliation. Already, the CPC is making inroad in Kano and states like
Jigawa and Kastina. However, Mr Shekarau will give him a good run in
the state, because in 2007, Mr Shekarau won the election without Mr
Buhari’s support.

For Mr Ribadu who is equally new
in the field and perceived by many in the North West as having been
used as a hunting dog by former president Obasanjo against his enemies,
his chances in the Northwest look very slim. Majority in the zone
believe that his party, the ACN, is a party that belongs to the Yorubas
and as such, is not a national party.

Political observers are of the
view that the CPC will win in the North West ahead of the ANPP and the
PDP, though others have different views because of the influence of the
vice president Namadi Sambo who is from the zone. By and large, given
the current scenario, the voting pattern is not likely going to be
different from that of all other previous elections held since 2003.

In 2003, Mr Buhari scored 80
percent of the estimated number of votes in Kano State against Mr
Obasanjo who got less than 25 percent. It was the same in 2007 when Mr
Buhari contested against late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua who incidentally
hailed from Buhari’s Katsina State. Although the PDP got 25 percent as
well in 2007, Mr Buhari still scored an estimated 75 percent of the
total votes cast.

If this trend persists, Mr Buhari may just clinch the support of over 13 million out of 18 million votes in the April polls.

Aisha Oyebode, daughter of former head of state, Murtala Muhammed,
speaks on the presidential policy dialogue, which holds in Abuja from
March 8th to 9th, 2011.

What is the presidential dialogue all about?

The presidential
dialogue is in response to the national move for issue-based politics
and what we are trying to do is to create the opportunity for
deliberation and dialogue. It is going to be between the presidential
candidates and a representative sample of the Nigerian populace. What
we are trying to do is to deepen our democratic and developmental
journey so that the voters have the basis for making an informed choice
about the parties and the candidates in the coming elections.

It is also a way
of facilitating the development of national consensus on key
developmental issues and reforms. The focus is on public policy issues.
It is on issues that impact our development. So we are going to look at
different key sectors areas such as economic growth; infrastructure
development such as roads, electricity; issues of accountability and
transparency and governance. We are looking at public sector capacity,
homeland security, teachers’ quality improvement, basic education and
so on.

How different is the dialogue from the presidential debates organised in the past?

It is a one-on-one
dialogue. Each presidential candidate will have their own exclusive
session with the panelists who are public sector analysts and the
panelists will raise some questions with them, look at their manifesto,
look at the policy statements. So it is based on all of the issues that
plague us that we are then going to raise and ask them questions about
and they will be expected to respond to those questions.

So because it is
an exclusive session it provides the candidates and even the citizens
opportunity to engage deeply on key national challenges and priorities.
For us, our focus is really on policy issues. It will also ensure that
the candidates themselves are comfortable; the questions are going to
be very sophisticated; a lot of work, a lot of thinking ought to have
gone into those questions. What we are hoping to extract out of the
questions is how we are going to solve some of the issues that plague
the nation and to facilitate nation-building.