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The European Union
(EU) yesterday formally launched its election monitoring team to
Nigeria ahead of the general elections billed for April, 2011.

Former Prime
Minister of Slovenia, and current member of the EU parliament, Alojz
Peterle, is leading the European Union Election Observation Mission to
monitor the conduct of the general polls in Nigeria. According to a
statement from the mission, over 120 observers from 27 member states as
well as Norway and Switzerland are to be deployed for the mission. A
team of nine election analysts from eight different EU countries
arrived Abuja March 1, to set up and coordinate the mission, and are to
be joined by a group of 52 long-term observers who will be deployed
across the country to observe the processes and report back to the
Abuja team.

Team’s commitment

At a press
conference in Abuja on Wednesday, Mr Peterle spoke of the team’s
commitment to neutrality and fairness in its evaluation of the poll’s
compliance with local and international electoral laws.

“We are not
professors here; we are not teachers here; we are partners,” he said.
“It is a privilege to lead the European Union Election Observation
Mission to Nigeria. I hope these elections will contribute to a
peaceful future of the country. It is important that citizens can
exercise their right to vote and candidates are able to campaign freely
in an inclusive democratic environment.” The mission is independent of
any EU institutions or member states and is expected to make public its
preliminary findings after the elections and then a final report – with
technical recommendations for future elections – to be published about
two months after the elections.

The EU’s election
observation mission to Nigeria during 2007 elections, joined other
local and international observers to roundly condemn the polls as one
of the country’s worst.

The Chief Observer
for the 2011 team, Mr Peterle said the EU has reached an agreement with
the federal government and the Independent National Electoral
Commission, guaranteeing its observer members freedom of movement and
access to all polling stations.

The team will meet
with government officials, candidates and representatives from the
political parties, civil society and the media.

They will also
assess all aspects of the process including the registration of voters
and candidates, the training of election staff, voter education,
campaign activities, the candidates and political parties, the media
coverage, the preparations for polling as well as complaint and appeal
process.

The Minister of
Finance, Olusegun Aganga, yesterday explained why the Federal
Government plans to abolish the excess crude account (ECA) established
by the Olusegun Obasanjo administration.

The account,
opened in 2004 following a fiscal policy decision to check the negative
impact of the swings of crude oil prices at the international oil
market on government expenditure, was to help create savings from
excess crude earnings for the country.

Under the
arrangement, all revenue earnings above a stipulated crude oil
benchmark price set by government in the annual budget were to be
transferred into the account as savings, to provide succour in times of
declining prices at the international market.

But, Mr. Aganga,
told NEXT in an interview in Abuja that the government resolved to
abolish the account not only because its existence was illegal and
unconstitutional, but also that management of the ECA has in recent
times been subjected to abuses that tend to defeat the objective for
which it was established.

A better arrangement

Mr. Aganga said
there was need to replace the ECA with a more functional structure that
would facilitate the effective utilization of the excess crude revenue
to meet the country’s developmental needs, particularly in the
provision of critical infrastructure as well as stabilization for the
country’s economy.

“The ECA is just an
account not backed by law. The process for accessing the ECA is not as
transparent and clear to the Nigerian people, therefore there is a
general perception that there is some level of mismanagement.

“The Sovereign
Wealth Fund (SWF) is being proposed not just because the ECA is
illegal, but because there is need to have a strong fiscal framework
that would ensure that future generations of Nigerians are provided for
with the earnings from excess crude. It is important for the country to
have a savings culture, since the country is relying entirely on a
depleting asset as the only source of revenue.

“As a developing
nation, it does not make sense keeping money somewhere and looking at
it, without any interest paid on it. With the SWF, such monies would be
put to work. The proposed structure would serve three purposes – to
provide for future generation to be interested in equities and fixed
income securities; provide economic stabilization by helping government
augment its annual budget when there is sustained fall in oil prices,
and facilitating the provision of critical infrastructure,” Mr. Aganga
said.

According to him,
since 2008, when oil prices began to decline, the federal government
has been drawing from the ECA to augment its annual budget deficit,
pointing out that until the government successfully diversifies the
economy, the country will continue to be at a risk.

With the SWF, he
said, there would be clear prudential guidelines on how and when to
access the account. There will be more transparency about the rules on
the management of the money,” adding that unlike the ECA being managed
by government, the SWF will be managed by the private sector, through
the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) made up of people
with proven track record of risk management portfolios.

“No government
official will be on the Board of NSIA that would manage the SWF. So, it
will be free from all political interferences.

“Members will come
for the private sector. There is no room for misinterpretation or the
kind of flexibility that would lead to mismanagement.

“The SWF management
will have two structures – the day-to-day management and the Governing
Council, made up of all the shareholders, including the three tiers of
government, civil society groups, which will meet once or twice a
year,” he explained.

Some stakeholders,
including the Revenue Mobilization, Allocation and Fiscal Commission
(RMAFC) as well as states governments that make up the Federation
Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) recently reiterated the call for
the abolition of the ECA, claiming it was existing in breach of the
provisions of the constitution requiring all revenues to be paid into
the Federation Accounts and shared periodically among the component
units of the federation.

The Nigerian Civil
Aviation Authority on Wednesday released a post-incident report on the
5N BMR aircraft conveying the vice presidential candidate, Fola Adeola,
and other top delegates of the Action Congress of Nigeria to Bauchi,
which crash-landed at the airstrip killing two goats.

The incident, which
was described as the “handiwork of saboteurs” by Ibrahim Madibbo, the
party’s national publicity secretary, occurred on Tuesday afternoon at
the airstrip, leaving the aircraft partly damaged with no human
casualty.

“On 8 March 2011
about 12.28pm a chartered HS 125 aircraft with registration number 5N
BMR, operated by Kings Airline, touched down at Bauchi airstrip. While
on landing roll, about eight goats strayed across the runway and the
aircraft hit two of the goats but the captain was able to maintain his
course on the runway centerline and parked the aircraft on the apron,”
said Harold Demuren, the director general of the civil aviation
regulatory agency at the Murtala Muhammed Airport, Lagos.

Mr. Demuren had on
Tuesday given assurance that the authority would investigate the cause
of the incident and make public the outcome of their findings; but the
spokesperson for the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria, Akin
Olukunle, when contacted declined comment on the incident.

Mr Demuren disclosed that one of the wings of the aircraft was damaged.

“The post-incident
inspection of the runway and the aircraft revealed that the flap on the
left hand side of the aircraft was damaged and two goats were found
dead,” he said.

Mr. Demuren gave
the name of the pilot in charge of the flight as Captain Wale Salami
and disclosed that he was brave enough to save the day for those
onboard the aircraft during the incident.

“The runway was
closed to traffic at 12.28 local time as part of safety precautionary
measures and reopened at 12.54 local time after inspection and clearing
of the runway of dead animals. There was no injury to six passengers
and three crew members onboard the aircraft,” he said.

It would be
recalled that in 2005, an Air France aircraft crashed-landed into herds
of cattle strolling at the Port Harcourt International Airport, Rivers
State.

The leader of the
Yoruba socio-cultural group, Afenifere, Reuben Fasoranti, yesterday
criticised security agencies in the country for not doing enough to
quell the persistent crises in Plateau State.

Mr Fasoranti who
spoke with NEXT in Akure, the Ondo State capital said the inability of
the Joint Task Force and the Nigeria police to bring the situation
under control is a sign that something is wrong with our security
system.

The octogenarian,
who is of the opinion that the Jos crisis is more political than
religious, said it will not be out of place if the federal government
declares a state of emergency in the state. “The crisis in Jos is fast
getting out of hand. Security agencies must brace up and act fast
before the crisis spreads to other neigbhouring states. The crisis has
been on without any solution to it.

The Afenifere
leader also condemned the federal government for not addressing the
crisis in the state with the seriousness it deserves.

“The federal government has not done enough to bring lasting peace
to Plateau State; it has to put in place proactive measures to curb the
incessant crises in the region,” he added.

The Osun State
governor, Rauf Aregbesola, on Wednesday, accused his Oyo State
counterpart, Adebayo Alao-Akala, of lying when he said that Ladoke
Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH), Ogbomoso, was now solely
owned by Oyo State. Mr. Aregbesola was at the International Institute
of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) on Wednesday to seek assistance on his
agricultural programme for his state. During his re-election campaign
at Ogbomoso on Monday, Mr. Alao-Akala had told the crowd that the state
had taken full ownership of the university, whose joint ownership with
Osun has remained a matter of controversy. Mr. Alao-Akala announced his
intention to acquire the institution solely for Oyo State and had
appointed a vice chancellor.

Undermining the process

The battle for the
control of the 20-year-old institution started during the
administration of the former Osun State governor, Olagunsoye Oyinlola,
who had a public disagreement over the university with Mr. Alao-Akala.
Both men were members of the People’s Democratic Party. Efforts to
resolve the crisis by leaders of the party in the South West were
unsuccessful, and it is going to be more difficult since Osun State is
now under the control of the Action Congress of Nigeria. Despite the
change of government in Osun, Mr. Alao-Akala is still pursuing his
mission with vigour and to underscore his seriousness, he has been
going around cities of the state in recent times promising the
establishment of campuses of the university across the state to get
indigenes to support his re-election bid. But, Mr. Aregbesola yesterday
blamed the press for giving Mr. Alao-Akala undue recognition, adding
that Oyo state would be rescued from him.

“At best, the man
should be a security officer, but because of law, he finds himself in a
governorship position and he is undermining the very process that
brought him into power,” Mr Aregbesola said.

“How do you explain that somebody would whimsically and unilaterally
claim an institution jointly owned by two states when the law that
established it has not been abrogated?”

The House of
Representatives has approved a Resolution to question the leadership of
the Independent National Electoral Commission for rejecting some
candidates presented for elections by political parties.

The House
committees on Electoral Matters and Justice, have one week to seek
explanations from the chairperson of the commission, Attahiru Jega, and
other officials, especially the legal commissioner, Phillip Umeadi, on
why court orders on candidates’ replacements have not been adhered to,
the House ruled on Wednesday.

The electoral body
has come under criticism from politicians since it ended replacement of
candidates by their parties in February, leaving open substitution
occasioned only by death, voluntary withdrawal or court rulings.

While political
parties say the electoral body, by law, lacks powers to decide on who
is fielded for elections, the commission has insisted that its mandate
includes upholding the Electoral Act’s definition of a “candidate”,
which requires the person to have been chosen through elections.

At the ratification
of code of conduct for political parties on Tuesday, many officials of
the parties said they were opposed to the commission’s new regulations
since the electoral body had refused to recognize the candidates they
sent.

Mr Jega, the
chairperson of the commission, replied that the commission’s position –
largely different from the past – is anchored strictly on the content
of the Electoral Act which he said does not permit imposition of
candidates.

Mr. Jega explained that once the order for replacement comes from the courts, the commission is bound to obey.

The lawmakers, many
of them victims of the issue – having lost the primaries and subsequent
effort to have their names inserted – dabbled into the prickly matter
yesterday with some calling for caution while others markedly condemned
the body.

“The commission’s
attitude of accepting some candidates and rejecting others against
valid and subsisting court orders cast doubts in the minds of Nigerians
against its role as an impartial arbiter in the conduct of free, fair
and credible elections in Nigeria,” said Ehioge West-Idahosa, the
sponsor of the motion.

His position was
supported by Elizabeth Ogbaga, (PDP, Ebonyi) and Sokonte Davies
(PDP,Rivers State) and Bala Na’alla (CPC, Kebbi State).

Mrs. Ogbaga, however, blamed the courts for continually issuing arbitrary injunctions.

But in the matter
regarded by other lawmakers as morally touchy for the House to take a
position on since some members may be in the elections, the electoral
commission found a host of defenders who rather berated the politicians
for failing to play by the rules.

“If anybody feels
that INEC is disobeying court order, the option is file a contempt
charge, so we cannot make any conclusion on this matter here. The
processes of the courts are there for all to follow,” said Leo Ogor, a
member from Delta State.

The motion scaled the pressure, and authorised an inquiry of the commission’s position on choice of candidates.

The Nigerian media has a major role to
play in enlightening farmers on how to achieve food security, Constance
Okeke, a Programme Officer at ActionAid Nigeria, has said.

In an interview in Abuja on Wednesday,
Ms Okeke noted that the media should be responsible for “disseminating
the right information on food security to Nigerian farmers. When the
Nigerian farmer is aware of what is happening, he will know the right
thing to do.”

She stressed that the underlying
principle of the “The Right to Food” programme launched by Actionaid
Nigeria two years ago was to underscore the right of every Nigerian,
including women and children, to be free from hunger.

According to her, efforts are currently ongoing to create the necessary awareness about the programme at the community level.

“We feel that we cannot achieve
anything if the awareness has not reached the right people who are the
farmers and who are the beneficiaries of the programme,” she said.

Ms Okeke said ActionAid officials had
visited the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development to inform him
about the programme.

On her assessment of the programme, she said “For us in ActionAid,
the success of the programme will depend on when Nigerian farmers are
able to request for their right from the Federal Government.” </

[ID:59055 Cable dated:2006-04-03T06:35:00]
====================================================

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000478

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE PASS DOE FOR GPERSON AND CGAY
TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS AND SRENENDER
COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD
STATE PASS USTR FOR ASST USTR SLISER
STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2016
TAGS: EPET, ENERG, ASEC, EAID, NI
SUBJECT: CHEVRON NIGERIA SEEKS LONG-TERM SOLUTION TO DELTA UNREST

Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e).

——-
Summary
——-

1. (C) Chevron Nigeria security consultant Hamish MacDonald shared concerns that a large amount of money was paid for the release of the Delta hostages and an industry of hostage-taking may be in the offing. Chevron has managed thus far to stay out of harm’s way, but MacDonald feels the urgent need to expand internationally-supported, long-term development programs. He plans to discuss the matter privately with Delta State Governor Ibori. Chevron will be welcoming a new Managing Director, and, with his arrival, MacDonald expects Chevron to transition from an expansion mode to one of consolidation. End Summary.

——————————————— ——–
Chevron Worries about Deal Struck to Release Hostages
——————————————— ——–

2. (C) At a March 29 meeting with the Ambassador, Chevron security consultant Hamish MacDonald said Chevron was “blindsided” by the commitments made to effect the March 26 release of three hostages held by the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). He said company sources indicated “a very large amount” of money had changed hands for this release, far more than in the release of hostages in January, and if true, we might be witnessing the birth of an industry. The Ambassador replied that the USG commitment remained strictly a willingness, at the invitation of the GON, to observe a newly created development commission that might include members of the aggrieved communities which harbor the hostage takers.

3. (C) MacDonald compared MEND to the IRA, noting its small size relative to its demonstrated ability seriously to disrupt oil operations, as well as its facility for manipulating the media. He felt MEND was targeting companies with poor community relations and business practices and, as such, Chevron still enjoyed an uneasy immunity from attacks.
Polcouns observed that both Willbros and Tidex had bad reputations among communities. MacDonald observed that Chevron was consequently rethinking its relationships with various contractors. He admitted that the oil companies did not have a uniform approach to the largest service companies which they all must use.

4. (C) MacDonald did not believe the military yet had the capacity to launch an effective retaliation against the Delta militants, and, he said, control over security forces was fragmented. He said since his arrival in Nigeria in 2003 there had been only very small increases in the military’s operational capacity. He felt National Security Advisor Aliyu Mohammed had his own agenda as well as a large measure of control over security forces. At the same time, MacDonald cherished his relationship with Chief of Army Staff Gen.
Agwai, who is close to the President and commonly believed to have a good handle on the issues behind Delta region unrest.
He said Chevron currently employs Agwai’s daughter through their youth employment program.

———————————-
Production Impact Not Yet Critical
———————————-

5. (C) MacDonald said that of the country’s 25-30% loss of total oil production, at least 15% could be restored within a couple weeks if the environment were secure. Chevron has so far only suffered one pipeline vandalism at Makaraba, affecting 13,000 barrels per day of production and relatively quick to fix. At the same time, he said, Chevron is still eyeing for the future a more complete resumption of its on-shore production, bringing up to 80,000 bpd back on-line.

LAGOS 00000478 002 OF 003

——————————————— ———-
New Managing Director is a Consolidator not an Expander
——————————————— ———-

6. (C) MacDonald announced Fred Nelson would replace Jay Pryor as Managing Director of Chevron Nigeria by mid-May this year and that there would be a two-week overlap. Nelson was in Nigeria 8 years ago and so has some familiarity with the region. MacDonald called Nelson a “consolidator,” while Pryor had been concerned with growth and expansion. He expected Chevron to augment its relationship with the Federal Government in Abuja by increasing its office size there. As opposed to Shell, Chevron had traditionally maintained a very small presence in Abuja, with the effect of distancing itself from the purely political decision-makers. The Ambassador offered to invite Nelson for a country team briefing on his arrival in country, and MacDonald responded enthusiastically.

——————————————— —
Lack of State and Federal Capacity Hinder Plans for Long-Term Development
——————————————— —

7. (C) MacDonald stressed the importance of the Rivers State development model, spearheaded and partially financed by the State Governor and the Niger Delta Development Commission but with capacity-building support from the USG, HMG and the World Bank. He said state governments, while they did not lack funds for development, did not have the capacity to sustain development programs and would therefore need assistance. He agreed, though, the impetus for these programs had to come from the state governors and indicated Chevron would privately approach Delta State Governor James Ibori to initiate a similar program in his state. MacDonald stressed the private nature of the meeting, intimating Ibori’s reputation with the militants made any direct relationship with Chevron a difficult proposition. (Comment:
In comments to the press during the last hostage crisis, the Presidency likewise stated the Rivers State model, while good, is not enough and must be expanded to other states in the Delta region. End Comment.)

8. (C) MacDonald felt oil companies were being slow to develop a consensus among themselves as to how to respond to the current Delta crisis, and there is a reluctance to formulate a unified solution. The Ambassador noted the potential for the current series of meetings in Washington and London to play a role in such necessary coalition building.

——————————————— –
MacDonald Believes MEND has Impetus from Abuja
——————————————— –

9. (C) MacDonald insinuated Delta unrest had impetus from Abuja, observing that Vice President Atiku had lately appeared more relaxed and free to maneuver. He noted the convenient timing both of the hostage release and the re-capture of Charles Taylor in conjunction President Obasanjo’s visit to Washington. He felt Obasanjo was seeking a closer relationship with former head-of-state and notorious political fixer Ibrahim Babangida (IBB). His sources told him Obasanjo spoke with IBB on the phone for over an hour on March 26 and that IBB’s recent press interview, while bordering on announcing his candidacy for the presidency and opposition to a third term, left his options open.

——-
Comment
——-

10. (C) While upper-level management of the oil majors continues publicly to share the GON’s view of MEND and Delta unrest as essentially criminal rather than political in
nature, MacDonald’s view is different. Instead, his
proposed solutions include the immediate expansion of the

LAGOS 00000478 003 OF 003

Rivers State development initiative, added pressure on Delta region governors, beginning with Ibori, to follow suit, and improved cooperation and the building of a united front among the oil companies, and reflect his view that the issues are essentially political. End Comment.

11. (U) This cable was cleared by Embassy Abuja.
BROWNE

Charges of alleged
certificate forgery against the Benue State governor, Gabriel Suswam
lingers on as one of his opponents for the Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) governorship ticket has asked a Federal High Court sitting in
Abuja, to disqualify Mr Suswam based on his educational qualification.

Terver Kakih also
listed Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the PDP, West
African Examination Council as defendants.

In a 39-paragraph
affidavit deposed to by the plaintiff, Mr Kakih claimed that Mr Suswam
“used the intimidating influence of the state to foist himself on the
PDP and picked the party’s nomination to contest for office of governor
for a second term in the forthcoming elections.” He also claimed that Mr
Suswam submitted forged credentials to the PDP screening committee.
“One of the information which an aspirant is required to swear to an
Oath on and verify is possession of requisite educational qualification
which will entitle the aspirant, under the Constitution of the Federal
Republic of Nigeria, to hold the office of a governor and to
substantiate the requirement of educational qualification, an Aspirant
must attach to his Party nomination form, copies of his certificates
issued by the relevant educational institutions or examination bodies
charged with issuing such certificates.” Mr Kakih explained.

Sole candidate

The plaintiff said
himself and Mr Suswam submitted their credentials to the PDP and were
both invited for screening and cleared to contest the party primary. He
said he later has reason to doubt the authenticity of the certificates
presented by Mr Suswam and asked the court for an order of interlocutory
injunction restraining the PDP and INEC, their servants, agents and or
privies from recognising or continuing to recognise the name of Mr
Suswam as the candidate of the PDP for the April governorship election
in Benue State, pending the hearing and determination of the substantive
suit.

Mr Kakih is also
seeking an order of interlocutory injunction restraining the INEC from
giving any recognition or further recognition to any other candidate(s),
apart from himself and his running mate, as gubernatorial and deputy
gubernatorial candidates of the PDP at the 2011 general election pending
the hearing and determination of the substantive suit.

The matter will come up before Ibrahim Auta, who is the presiding judge on Friday.

The
Federal Government has said it is making steady progress towards
achieving the target of the Roadmap it set last year for the power
sector.

Minister
of Finance, Olusegun Aganga, who presided over the meeting of the
Presidential Action Committee (PAC) on Power on behalf of President
Goodluck Jonathan, told reporters in Abuja that government effort so
far resulted in the supply of about 3,824 mega watts (MW) of
electricity last Monday, the highest level in recent times.

“We
(government) are making good progress in a number of areas, though we
want to do better. The highest level of electricity supply of 3,824 MW
was achieved last Monday. We had a very successful road show on the
privatization of the power sector, and we harvested an encouraging
number of expressions of interest for the companies on offer for sale.
We expect that most of them would be quality investors, who are willing
and committed to help the success of the road map,” he said.

The
minister said government is interested in partnering with companies
that possess not only the financial strength and technical competence,
but also those with the commitment to drive the business and deliver
electricity as quickly as possible, to make the power sector flourish.

“We
are working on a mechanism to gather direct feedback on specific areas
government needs to focus attention on to improve the situation,” he
said.

Impressive growth

Special
Adviser to the President on Power, Barth Nnaji, said the meeting
reviewed government’s effort to improve and stabilise power supply in
the country, pointing out that apart from generation, significant
improvements were recorded in the area of electricity transmission.

In
December 2010, he said electricity transmission capacity achieved 98
percent improvement of the target set under the Roadmap, from 5,155.2MW
at 330kV level and 6,676.8MW at 132kV level last July to 5,515.2MW and
7,328MW at 330kV and 132kV level respectively.

Since
last December, the adviser said two more 60MVA transformers have been
commissioned in Dakata and Port Harcourt municipality, with four more
billed for Ajaokuta, New Haven, Katsina and Birnin Kebbi to be
energised before the end of this month.

In
addition, he said 11 transformers with 60MVA 132/33kV capacity have
since arrived the country awaiting installation at various locations
nationwide, to help boost the electricity transmission capacity to the
100 percent target under the Roadmap.

According
to Mr Nnaji, “Before now, power supply was fluctuating between 2,000
and 3,000 MW. Today, we are making progressing. It would not be
possible for Nigerians to feel the impact, even when the supply rises
to 4,00MW, because the gap between demand and supply is quite huge. The
important thing is that government is doing what it needs to do to grow
power supply to an appreciable level where the people will begin to
feel the impact,” he said.

Holistic approach

He
said government is now looking at the development of the entire
infrastructure in a holistic manner, rather than focus only on
generation and transmission. Director General BPE, Bolanle Onagoruwa,
said about 331 expressions of Interest (EOI) were harvested from
prospective investors in the 11 distribution and six generating
companies, made up of 167 for distribution companies and 174 for
generating companies at the expiration of the deadline last Friday.

Though
the BPE boss said the EOIs are yet to be opened, she said the bureau
will finalize the evaluation criteria within the next one week, while
the evaluation process will begin immediately after.

She assured that investors are not likely to face gas supply
challenges, as all the power plants now being privatised already have
their sources of gas supply.