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The crisis rocking the Ladoke Akintola University of
Technology (LAUTECH) has continued as the Medical and Dental Council of
Nigeria directed that the teaching hospital arm of the university
should remain in Osogbo, Osun State.

The university, which is jointly
owned by the Oyo and Osun state governments, became the subject of
controversy following the Oyo State government’s directives that the
joint ownership of the institution should be severed.

The Oyo State
government, earlier in the year, had directed both students and staff
of the teaching hospital in Osogbo to report at a new site located in
Ogbomoso, Oyo State. The Council’s registrar, Dr. A.A. Ibrahim, in a
memo addressed to the provost of the College of Health Sciences
(LAUTECH), rejected any attempt to move the clinical training of
medical students of the teaching hospital to another location outside
Osogbo.

The three-paragraph memo read in part, “The attention of
Council has been drawn to lingering controversies surrounding the
purported movement of the teaching hospital for the clinical training
of your medical students to another location outside the accredited
site Osogbo.

“For the avoidance of doubt, let me restate here that
Council does not recognise any medical training conducted at any
facility not accredited by the Medical and Dental Council of Nigeria.
It will, therefore, be in the interest of your institution to ensure
that laid-down training guidelines are strictly adhered to at all
times.

“I am also to inform you that hosting professional medical
examination in such a facility is null and void and of no effect.
Should Council guidelines be infringed, you will be held responsible
and such an act makes you liable to prosecution before the disciplinary
organ of the Council.”

The Movement for
the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has described the Federal
Government’s amnesty programme for former militants from the Niger
Delta region as a failure, accusing President Goodluck Jonathan of
bribing them to sing his praise.

“The amnesty is a
colossal failure as far as we are concerned. The government claims to
be sending so-called ex-militants to places like Ghana and Malaysia for
training. We find this very laughable as we know they would end with
worthless certificates and given jobs as labourers if employed by the
oil companies. The real fighters are who we have as they understand
what they stand and fight for.

“The so-called
ex-militants are not singing Jonathans praises for nothing. They are
being bribed to do so. They know in their hearts that the amnesty is a
big failure.” Jomo Gbomo, the group’s spokesperson said this while
responding to questions from NEXT reporters. The group, however,
restated its plan to “get rid of all Western oil companies operating in
the region that have only polluted and destroyed our land with impunity
and connived with the government to hide the extent of damages caused.”

Threats of bomb attack

In an earlier
e-mail sent on Monday with the theme, ‘Bomb blasts and oil
installations attack’, the group had announced its desire to “soon
commence with simultaneous bomb blasts and attacks on oil installations
in the Niger Delta and other strategic locations in Abuja and Lagos
States of Nigeria.” According to the group, in order to avert avoidable
loss of lives, “advance warnings for immediate evacuation as previously
will be issued and a final warning thirty (30) minutes prior to the
blasts, after which will follow a statement of claim in line with our
modus operandi.” However, when asked why some of its previous e-mail
notifications had not been carried out, Mr Gbomo said “Previous threats
have been issued but not yet carried out for security reasons best
known to us. It is up to the general public to yield to this warning
for their best interest. The security services know themselves that
there is a massive planned attack but don’t know when or where.” The
group however warned the general public to steer clear of all political
gatherings or meetings of any sort.

Reaction to the warning

Already, people are
responding to the threat issued by the group. The Action Congress of
Nigeria has since cancelled its presidential rally to Bayelsa State for
security reasons. The National Youth Leader of the party, Ebikibina
Miriki, told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on telephone that the
party’s flag bearer Nuhu Ribadu’s rally was cancelled by the national
headquarters due to security reports.

He said the party has decided to take its campaign to Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital.

The Inspector
General of Police (IGP), Hafiz Abubakar Ringim has called on Nigerians
to disregard the threats by the Movement for Emancipation of Niger
Delta to bomb Abuja, Lagos and some oil installations.

Mr Ringim, however, urged Nigerians to be cautious and report any suspicious movement

At least five
persons, including Aminu Ibrahim, the Aide De Camp (ADC) to Katsina
State governor, Ibrahim Shehu Shema, were confirmed dead in an accident
involving the governor’s convoy along Katsina – Daura road on Tuesday.
Mr Shema however escaped with minor injuries.

The accident
occurred in Zakaliya village of Mashi local government council along
Katsina-Daura road around 9:45am, while Mr Shema was on his way to
Daura to prepare for the visit of President Goodluck Jonathan to the
town.

The accident,
according to the FRSC sector commander in Katsina State, Habu Dauda,
involved the governor’s official vehicle, a black Land Rover jeep and a
commercial bus, with registration number XA 668 ZAR.

An eye witness said
that the driver of the commercial bus was obviously scared when he
heard the blaring siren and lost control, thereby hitting the
governor’s vehicle.

NEXT learnt that
the driver of the commercial bus, who could not be identified as at
press time, was among those who lost their lives, just as 10 others
were said to be receiving treatment at the Federal Medical Centre,
Katsina.

Mr Dauda attributed the accident to careless driving.

The PDP rally later went ahead, although without the usual fanfare
as Mr Shema ordered drummers and dancers to stay away as a mark of
respect for the deceased.

The presidential
candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change, Muhammadu Buhari
stole the show at the official flag-off campaign of the Bauchi State
governor, Isa Yuguda on Monday.

Shortly after his
declaration, Mr. Yuguda had told thousands of his supporters who
gathered at the campaign rally in Jama’are area to vote for President
GoodLuck Jonathan in the general elections, but the entire crowd
chanted, “We will vote for Buhari.”

According to Mr.
Yuguda, who is the North East Zonal Campaign coordinator,
GoodLuck/Sambo Campaign Organization, “The South has never failed to
support us in the North in various elections. The North owes the South
because for the past 50 years they have supported us which led to Sir
Abubakar Tafawa Balewa becoming the First Prime Minister in Nigeria.’’
He continued, ‘’it was this support that also led to the emergence of
Shehu Shagari as President of Nigeria. If they have supported us in
these ways, why cant we give them this opportunity to also serve?
President Goodluck has promised to serve for only one term as
president’’ In a bid to convince the crowd to support his cause, he
said further that ‘’the President has also promised to build Almajiri
schools for the over 9.5 million Almajiris that we have in northern
Nigeria as well as other developmental projects and programmes that we
will enjoy in the north’’

No to Jonathan

But despite his
attempts, the people, who were mainly PDP members, chanted, “we don’t
want Jonathan, all we want is Baba Buhari. He is the candidate of our
choice and we will vote for him alone’’.

Speaking earlier on
his agenda for the state, Mr. Yuguda said his priority areas in the
last four years included education and health said he will not relent
in his efforts to deliver dividends of democracy to the people if
reelected. He said he will provide more jobs, construct more roads,
provide electricity.

In his remark, the
PDP Deputy National Secretary, Musa Babayo reiterated the support of
the national body of the party for Mr. Yuguda’s re-election bid: ‘’I
won’t be wrong if I say PDP has already won the coming elections in
Bauchi and throughout the country,” he said. “PDP is a party that
stands for justice and fairness. That is why we want you to vote for
PDP candidates so that they can deliver the dividends of democracy to
you,” he added.

The Senate on
Tuesday called off passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill for the
second time in one week, but this time in counter protest to series of
protests calling on the lawmakers to pass the Bill.

It said it will not
be blackmailed into the passage of the Bill by protesters who claim
they are more patriotic than the senators.

A group of students
from three universities in the Niger Delta region had on Tuesday
morning barricaded the entrance to the National Assembly demanding the
passage of the Bill and subsequently, an apology from the deputy Senate
president who had last week dismissed them as “charlatans.”

The Senate
president, David Mark, said his colleagues had also received a minimum
of 20 disparaging text messages intended to stampede them into hastily
passing the bill.

“We are as
patriotic as those sending text messages. I do not think any Nigerian
can be more patriotic than the senators,” Teslim Folarin, the Senate
leader, said while requesting its withdrawal.

The Bill was
subsequently withdrawn, to be heard on “another legislative day” and
not even the next legislative day, indicating a major setback.

The Senate is
expected to proceed on a recess after today’s plenary to enable members
who are running for a rerun in the April 2 senatorial elections to
prepare for their elections.

“We will take it, but not as those who want to blackmail us want,” the Senate president told his colleagues.

Members of the
House of Representatives have, however, promised to begin third reading
of the Bill today if its committee on petroleum is able to distribute
it to all members by midday today.

Since the PIB was
introduced into the two chambers of the National Assembly in December
2008, it has suffered series of delays due to disagreements on the
provisions of the Bill by various relevant parties. The Bill has also
undergone series of amendments and its true provisions are still
unknown.

The Senate decision
on Tuesday to suspend legislation on a Bill based on protest calling
for its passage is the first in their ending four year term. Analysts
say the politics of the PIB is beyond the lawmakers and protesters, a
factor that could have motivated the action by the senators than the
stated reason. The protesters, however, said they will not be
discouraged.

“This development
will only strengthen our commitment to continue the struggle to ensure
that the PIB is passed into law,” David Ogbolor, leader of the group,
said.

Non charlatans

The students, who
had barricaded the main entrance of the National Assembly that morning
to press home their demands, said their protest was sparked by the
deputy Senate president’s “embarrassing” comments last week where he
waved them off as “charlatans”.

The Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) is conceived to repeal the
Petroleum Act of 1969, and consolidate about 16 other petroleum
industry laws into one single, transparent, and coherent document. The
objective is to establish a comprehensive legal and regulatory
framework for good governance, transparency, and accountability, with
regard to operational and fiscal terms for revenues management, and
removal of confidentiality clauses in licences, leases, and contracts
in the nation’s petroleum industry.

The traditional
ruler of Orile-Owu in Isokan Local Government Area of Osun State, Oba
Adesoji Afelele, yesterday died in an auto crash which occurred on
Osogbo-Gbongan road in the early hours of the day.

Mr Afelele, aged 75, was said to have died with his wife in the crash.

It was gathered
that the traditional ruler and his wife were on their way to Ode-Omu,
also in Osun State, when the accident occurred.

The crash

Sources told our
correspondent that an 18 seater hummer bus belonging to AIT rammed into
the vehicle killing Mr Afelele and his wife instantly.

The sources also
said that four other people apart from the traditional ruler were
seriously injured in the crash and have been taken to the Obafemi
Awolowo University Teaching Hospital, Ile-Ife for treatment while the
corpses have been deposited at the mutuary of the hospital.

Mr Afelele was said to have ascended the throne in 1981 and was preparing for the 30th coronation anniversary celebration.

Mr Afelele was
until his death a permanent member of the Osun State Council of
Traditional Rulers and a prominent traditional ruler in Yoruba land.

Before ascending the throne in 1981, he was a teacher and chief examiner for the West African Examinations Council (WAEC).

Son’s reaction

Reacting to the
death of his father and stepmother, Muyiwa Adejobi, who is the Ogun
State Police Public Relations Officer, confirmed the incident. “We have
also contacted my siblings and other family members, and I’m on my way
to our town for the family meeting to discuss the burial arrangement
which will be made available soon,” he explained

Igbo leaders, under the aegis of
Eastern Leaders Forum (ELF) yesterday asked the Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP) to fill the vacant position of the party’s national
chairman vacated by Okwesilieze Nwodo, before the April elections.

The deputy national chairman of the
PDP, Haliru Bello Mohammed, has been acting as the national chairman
since Mr Nwodo’s resignation over series of litigations against his
membership and chairmanship of the party.

At a press conference in Abuja, the
group appealed to President Goodluck Jonathan to hasten the process of
appointing a substantive national chairman who should be from the south
east zone before the April general elections. They said such an
appointment will give Igbo people a sense of belonging in the party.

The group forwarded names of two
prominent members of the party from the south east to Mr Jonathan and
the PDP leadership last week for consideration as the party’s national
chairman.

The names of a former speaker of the
House of Representatives, Agunwa Anakwe and a former chairman of the
PDP in Anambra State, Dan Ulasi were allegedly presented to Mr Jonathan
during his visit to Akwa Ibom State.

Chukwuemeka Ezeife, leader of Forum,
argued that Mr Jonathan’s inability to respond to their earlier demand
to fill the position has become a source of worry to the group as some
of the president’s opponents are already exploiting the situation to
their advantage.

“We call on President Jonathan and the
PDP to hearken to the voice of Ndigbo and restore to them the position
of the national chairmanship of the PDP before the general election,”
he said.

In need of goodwill

Mr Ezeife, a former governor of
Anambra State said the zone will still vote for the PDP in the April 9
presidential poll, if the president fails to act as demanded by the
group. He, however, warned that it will make the Igbo race “feel
marginalized and removed from the current scheme of things.” Mr Ezeife
confirmed that the PDP governors in the zone were initially opposed to
the appointment of another chairman from their domain to replace Mr
Nwodo, but have since changed their minds and joined forces with the
Igbo leaders to demand that the position be filled by an Igbo.

“While some may have shown some apathy
towards it several weeks back because of the freshness of the
Nwodo/Chime saga, the same cannot be said today,” Mr Ezeife said. “The
south east governors, as elected representatives of the people, would
not look elsewhere when the agitation for the position has heightened.
They are now even in the vanguard to drive the present process to
ensure the emergence of a truly acceptable national chairman.”

He said that the people of the zone
will need the goodwill of Nigerians to achieve the ambition, pointing
out that the south east zone cannot go it alone.

The minister of
labour and productivity, Emeka Worgu, said he has launched moves to
mobilise the organised labour sector to vote en masse for President
Goodluck Jonathan in the forthcoming April presidential election.

Speaking yesterday
in an interview, Mr. Worgu said in view of the commitment of the
president to labour issues and the harmonious relationship between the
organised labour and the government, he was sure that labour would
throw its weight behind the candidacy of Mr. Jonathan and ensure his
election, come April 9, 2011.

“What the Nigerian
workers rather would do at this particular point is to reciprocate the
gesture of Mr. President by coming out in their millions to support
this great son of Nigeria, who is the president and who is the
initiator of a better living standard for Nigerian workers and vote for
him.

“There is no better
way to show happiness and gratitude to such a great leader of this
country than for them to come out and vote for him,” Mr. Worgu said.

Speaking further on
why Nigerians should vote for President Jonathan, Mr. Worgu said he was
interested in the improvement in petroleum supply.

“From Maiduguri to
Yenagoa, from Yenagoa to Aba, you will find out that there are no more
queues on line. There is industrial harmony. The country has not been
shut down as a result of strike for as long as three weeks. Roads are
being fixed. There is a reform in the power sector and everything. The
man Jonathan is a political phenomenon. We have never had such a
phenomenal emergence in this country like Jonathan,” he said.

Labour harmony

The minister
reassured the organised labour sector and the electorate that the
election of President Jonathan in the forthcoming April poll would
signify a positive improvement in “the fortunes of Nigerian workers.”

Commenting further
on the harmonious relationship between the federal government and
Nigerian workers, the minister said: “since I assume this position, I
can count on my finger tips the number of times strikes have taken
place and none of them lasted for more than a day.

“The Labour Act is so clear that whenever there is a threat to go on
strike, the labour minister must apprehend it. That is where
pro-activism comes in. Under Jonathan, there has been a good harmonious
industrial relationship between both government and labour because of
the style of Mr. President and the pro-activeness in the ministry of
labour. That is the simple truth.”

[ID:171266 Cable dated:2008-09-24T07:37:00] ====================================================

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LAGOS 000376

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
STATE PASS NSC FOR BOBBY PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PM, KDEM, NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR’S MEETING WITH GOVERNORS FORUM LEADER SARAKI ON YAR’ADUA’S HEALTH, CABINET RESHUFFLE, AND EX-GOVERNOR IBORI

REF: A. ABUJA 1898
B. ABUJA 1595

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROBIN R. SANDERS Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

1. (C) Summary: During Ambassador,s first trip to Kwara State in western Nigeria, she had an opportunity to have several meetings with Kwara State Governor and head of the powerful Governor,s Forum (GF), Bukola Saraki September 21-22. He met with the Ambassador just after finishing a 3-hour session with Yar,Adua, where he said they were “finishing up touches on personalities in the next cabinet.”

In the hour long one-on-one with Ambassador, Saraki reviewed the current state of play in Nigerian Northern and national politics, President Yar,Adua,s health issues and the impact on the atmosphere in Nigeria, the upcoming cabinet reshuffle and Niger Delta issues, and made comments about some of the key people around the President such as National Security Advisor Muktar, and (in response to the Ambassador,s questions) about the President,s Aide de Camp (ADC).

Saraki is in his mid-forties, a medical doctor, dynamic, and hails from a strong, powerful family, rumored to have made their wealth in oil, which has controlled Kwara State off and on for generations. Under his leadership, the GF, in combination with other northern governors including the Governors of Kaduna, Borno, Kano (although not from the ruling PDP), and Katsina, have become the new power entity within the North.

2. (C) Saraki and these younger Northern governors believe that they have demonstrated their prowess over the last eight months as they have gotten President Yar,Adua to respond to many of their requests, including, they believe, controlling the PDP and blocking both former Presidents Obasanjo and Babingida from seating their candidates as PDP chairmen. On the southern side, in addition to the Governor of Lagos, Niger Delta Governors of Rivers and Bayelsa States also have come into their own, influencing issues for their region by virtue of their access to President Yar,Adua. Saraki noted in the meeting that most governors like Yar,Adua “because he does not meddle in their State affairs, quite different from former President Obasanjo.” In addition to this background, Saraki made comments on the state of play in politics, the upcoming cabinet reshuffle, personalities around Yar,Adua, and ex-Delta governor James Ibori as he relates to the EFCC and the U.S. position on the EFCC.

Ibori, the EFCC, and U.S.
————————-

3. (C) Governor Saraki began our discussion with the words “let’s be frank,” as he opened up about the sentiments of the President and his inner circle (which includes Saraki) on the U.S. posture on the EFCC. He noted that overall neither the President nor any of his key advisors are too keen on how the U.S. has approached this issue, underscoring that we needed to get the bilateral relationship back on track. He added that the main challenge is “not so much the USG concerns about the EFCC and it doing better — we get that and appreciate that — but the way that we were talked to, as well as the closing down any dialogue with EFCC chairwoman and not giving her a chance, is what bothers us. “The Brits feel like you do on the EFCC and wanting to see results on key cases, but they have gone about it in a much better manner so that we are willing to listen to them.” Ambassador pushed back, pointing out that without progress on cases such as that of ex-governor Ibori, there is probably not any likelihood that our posture would change, but that she would dialogue with him and others to continue to push for these prosecutions to be done in a transparent manner, with action that would bring Ibori and his ilk to justice.

4. (C) The Ambassador then asked Saraki point blank what Ibori had on the President that prevents him from being more forceful on seeing this through. Saraki said because we have had good chats over the last several months that he would be straightforward. He stated that there is no way that Yar,Adua would ever “pick up the phone to try to influence

LAGOS 00000376 002 OF 004

the EFCC or Chairwoman Waziri.” Despite what the international community might think, Yar’Adua is committed to the rule of law, but Ibori contributed financially in a big way to his campaign — everyone knows this. So the President is not in a political position to ban Ibori from some limited access to him. The Ibori situation is a problem for the President and he knows it and is doing his best to convince Ibori to hand himself over to the British authorities so that the country can move on. “We are all trying to convince Ibori that this is the best option for the country and the President, but Ibori is not on board yet to do this,” he concluded. “Meanwhile, he added, the USG and the rest of the international community need to appreciate that Yar’Adua is not going to do anything to interfere with the EFCC investigation of Ibori, of any of the other ex-governors, or of anyone else who is brought before the EFCC.

5. (C) On Waziri, Saraki claimed that going by her resume alone she is highly qualified for the job, personally motivated to see these big cases through, and thus should be given a chance, instead of cutting the legs out from under her. A dialogue should be maintained even if the USG holds off on its training, he emphasized. “Give her six months do her job before you condemn her.” Waziri now feels she has an EFCC team which is loyal to her and that is not trying to undercut her. She has stated that, with this new team, she hopes to be able to close some of these big cases soon.
Ambassador stated that it was unlikely that dialogue could continue with Waziri, but wanted to encourage it with others in the government on this and other issues. Saraki again noted the concern the Nigerian leadership with the tone and style (threats, etc.) that were reflected in the recent U.S.
demarche (Ref B.)

Niger Delta Next Steps
———————-

6. (C) Ambassador decided to move on and take the Ibori issue one step further by asking Saraki if the rumors that the government was considering making Ibori the Minister of the new Niger Delta Ministry were true. Saraki laughed, stating that the international community has to accept that hyperbole is the foundation of the Nigerian press, including blogs like Sahara Reporters. Given that he had just left Yar’Adua’s three hour meeting on choices for the next cabinet, Saraki said that “picking a good candidate for the Niger Delta Ministry was what was holding up progress on announcing the new Ministers.” The Kwara Governor said that he and others working on the new cabinet list had provided the President with several criteria for this position: no previous involvement in politics, no ex- or current governor; and no EFCC skeletons. “What we are looking for is a technocrat from the region, who has credibility among regional leaders
— this has not been easy to find,” Saraki said. (Note: The Saturday, September 20 Vanguard reported that the President “was believed” to have picked Albert Okumagba, an ethnic Urhobo who is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of BGL Limited, an investment banking firm. Okumagba, like several others whose names are being discussed, appears to meet the criteria Saraki describes above. End Note)

7. (C) On other Niger Delta issues, Saraki informed the Ambassador that an informal agreement had been reached with the factional Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta People (MEND) to announce a ceasefire until such time that all parties to the conflict could find a good candidate for the Niger Delta Ministry. (Note: Two days after the Ambassador-Saraki meeting, the Nigerian press reported that MEND had agreed to a temporary cease-fire with the goal of stemming the violence in River State in particular. In addition Secretary to the Federation (SFG) Ahmed told Ambassador September 15 that he would be meeting with Tom Polo’s people and others to try to find a way to work out a deal so that things could move forward. End Note.) Ambassador mentioned that the United States and the UK had worked jointly together on a paper that could support GON efforts and that we had delivered an operational assistance non-paper to the President back in July. To date, she added,

LAGOS 00000376 003 OF 004

we have not gotten a response to the July demarche, while the US-UK paper had been delivered to the Foreign Minister and the Secretary of the Federal Government. Right now, Saraki said, people are still “smarting” over the U.S. behavior on the EFCC, so responses to overtures by the U.S. on the Niger Delta are probably lukewarm, Saraki said. “If we make a step the U.S. doesn’t like on the Niger Delta are you going to pull your support, as you did on the EFCC?”, he asked.
Ambassador emphasized that the offers to assist on the Niger Delta are genuine.

Powerbrokers Around the President
———————————

8. (C) Ambassador took further advantage of the frank dialogue to ask who, beside Saraki, did the President rely upon? Saraki replied that his loyalty and assistance to the President came as a result of his ability to use his GF position to block Obasanjo and Babingida’s candidate at the last PDP convention, held in April 2008. Since then, Yar’Adua has continually included him in high level conversations about federal government issues, such as the new cabinet line-up. The Kwara State Governor then added the following other governors to the list of people who can and do have influence with and access to Yar’Adua, noting that the single most powerful influence is his wife, Turai. On the list of influential govenors, in Saraki’s view, are the Katsina, Rivers, Kano, and Kaduna governors. Others include SFG Ahmed and Economic Advisor Yakubu. Saraki then asked what the Ambassador thought about National Security Advisor Muktar, as he did not seem to be doing his job of coordinating the government well. Ambassador demurred, saying that she understood Muktar had just had heart surgery and that she had not seen him in awhile. The Kwara Governor went on to add that he felt that Muktar had been ineffective in the position, as so many things requiring coordination just seemed to fall through the cracks. On the Muktar heart surgery, Saraki added that he seemed to be recovering well and was back on the job. Ambassador then asked about the President’s Aide de Camp (ADC), wondering whether he was considered part of Yar’Adua’s inner circle. Saraki explained that the “jury was out on the ADC,” given his ties in the past as an Obasanjo loyalist. “Right now those of us close to the President are carefully watching the ADC,” he explained. (Note: Ambassador’s encounters with the ADC have always left the impression that he is not working in the best interest of the current government. He was promoted to colonel under Yar’Adua in early 2008, but also worked in the Villa under Obasanjo. So comments that he is loyal to Obasanjo are not surprising. End Note.)

Cabinet Reshuffle, Timing
————————-

9. (C) Saraki told Ambassador that the timing of the cabinet reshuffle was imminent. He added in meeting with President Yar’Adua earlier September 21 that those in attendance agreed that at the upcoming Federal Executive Committee meeting (Nigeria’s cabinet meeting) that the Ministers who were being let go would be announced. (Note: We are assuming that Foreign Minister Maduekwe will be staying on as he is currently representing the GON and Yar’Adua at the UNGA).
However, he did not think that the names of all the new ministers would be ready at the same time, so those names will probably be announced later. The Kwara Governor said that the GON could announce Ministers who are fired after the September 24 or October 1 FEC meeting.

Yar’Adua’s Health and the Supreme Court
—————————————

10. (C) In wrapping up the meeting, the Ambassador asked
about the state of President Yar’Adua’s health and the pending Supreme Court decision. Saraki responded by saying “I a medical doctor so I am not going to soft peddle the issue; the President has serious health problems.” However, he added, “despite his kidney problems, I believe he can manage his illness with the right care and regular check-ups.

LAGOS 00000376 004 OF 004

This is something the country is going to have to understand.” The Kwara Governor noted as an example that in the three hour session with Yar’Adua on the upcoming cabinet, the latter was articulate and had command of the issues. “He is not Obasanjo and not gregarious, but he is able to do the job,” Saraki stated. On the Supreme Court ruling, the Ambassador reminded Saraki that when they last met in July
2008 he was confident that Yar’Adua would prevail in the high court’s decision. She was curious given the recent health scare if he felt the same today. The Governor said he did not know, but thought the odds were more in the 50-50 range, and that the health issue did raise an additional specter of concern on the national psyche. He noted, however, that he did not expect the Supreme Court to render a decision until probably sometime in January or February 2009. Press reports showed on September 23 that the Supreme Court would begin hearing appeals testimony starting September 25.

11. (C) Comment: All in all Saraki seems to be becoming more of a key player on the national level and certainly has the ear of Yar’Adua. He was a lot less optimistic about how the Supreme Court would rule than he had been in his previous meetings with the Ambassador as health issues of Yar’Adua are more paramount on the minds of Nigerians. Succession scenarios on Nigeria’s future are playing out with elites both in the North and South with bets being taken over whether the Northern group would allow VP Jonathan to assume a transitional leadership role at all if Yar’Adua became incapacitated. The new cabinet which is scheduled to be announced soon is also supposed to reflect more of Yar’Adua’s small inner circle of friends as he seeks to consolidate his power more now than he has in the past, and better control his cabinet. This could be a good thing or bad, depending on whether the wall on access to Yar’Adua gets higher. It is already difficult to get in to see him. With the decision of the Supreme Court weighing heavily on Yar’Adua coupled with trying to manage the country’s nervousness over his health, he probably sees Saraki’s leadership in the Governors’ Forum as a way to help him within the PDP, particularly as looming health questions continue to arise.

12. Ambassador drafted this cable while at CG Lagos.
BLAIR

A boat travelling
from Creek Town in Odukpani Local Government Area of Cross River State
to Calabar, the state capital capsized midway in its journey killing
all passengers on board. The 11 passengers were mostly women who were
conveying processed cassava (fufu) for sale.

Whereas 10 of the
corpses were picked up on the fateful day by local water divers, the
11th corpse of a lady is yet to be seen five days after the incident.
At the popular Volvo Market in Marina Beach, Calabar, the destination
of the unfortunate passengers, all the traders at the market were in
mourning mood when the news broke that the large size boat had capsized
and the goods they were expecting lost. The women almost on daily basis
transport foodstuff and other agricultural produce across the Calabar
River for sale in the Cross River State capital. It takes just 15
minutes to cross from either side and one and half hours on land using
an automobile.

Waiting in vain

A lady at the
market who gave her name as Atim told NEXT that they were awaiting the
arrival of their suppliers from Creek Town when suddenly a speed boat
showed up conveying the bad news which disorganised and sent all the
traders into mourning. “My brother, this is bad news for us. Each of us
here has a supplier of fufu and other food items from Creek Town. You
know Creek Town is a rural area.

They have various
foodstuff there which they ferry here for sale. This accident has
devastated all of us. These suppliers over the years have become like
our sisters and brothers. “We are feeling for them and the loved ones
they left behind. Let government investigate the cause of this accident
because this is one accident too many.”

The traders expressed shock at the frequent boat mishaps around that
area. “It’s like quarterly a boat on Calabar-Creek Town route must
capsize and kill all the passengers. Last year this time, the same
thing happened. We are confused”, she said. Some policemen at the
Marina police station confirmed the incident saying investigation into
its cause was on.