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Cote D’Ivoire’s
main cotton growers’ association trimmed its 2010-11 season production
forecast to 215,000 tonnes from 220,000 tonnes, its executive secretary
said on Thursday.

It marks the second
downward revision since the season started in May, as farmers hoping to
cash in on high world prices reported not receiving seeds normally
distributed by the government as a political crisis drags on.

“We are still in
crisis. The conditions are not ideal,” Christophe N’Dry, executive
secretary of the Cotton Ginners Association told Reuters in an
interview, adding he was also concerned about the 2011-12 season.

He said some 214,410 hectares were cultivated this season instead of the 220,000 hectares previously forecast.

Despite the problems, he said production would still outpace last year’s 185,346 tonnes. “For us, it is enough,” he said.

Cote D’Ivoire has
been in turmoil since a dispute over who won a November 28 presidential
election. The poll was meant to reunite the country after a 2002-03
civil war split it in two, but has instead deepened divisions.

The West African
nation, also the world’s leading cocoa producer, once grew 400,000
tonnes of cotton annually, but the war has left its dry
cotton-producing north in rebel hands.

The Cotton Ginners
Association had initially predicted that the 2010-11 season would yield
250,000 tonnes, but cut that forecast to 220,000 tonnes in August.

N’Dry said he was concerned that the 2011-12 season could be hit hard if the political crisis was not resolved soon.

“We fear for the
next season because of the political situation. Generally, we start in
January to gather seeds and inputs in preparation for the next season.
If the crisis continues, this will be difficult,” he said.

He said that arranging lines of credit with banks to purchase inputs could be hindered by the standoff.

African leaders are
trying to negotiate a solution between incumbent leader, Laurent
Gbagbo, and his rival Alassane Ouattara, both of whom claim to have won
the poll.

Ouattara has the backing of Western powers and African states, but Gbagbo has the support of the national army.

REUTERS

Oil prices fell
further from 27-month high on Wednesday as a stronger dollar sapped
investor’s risk appetite for commodities, despite signs of tighter oil
supply fundamentals.

Oil staged a sharp
rally in late December, helping to make the commodity the top
performing asset class in 2010, but prices had since retreated as
investors opted to take profits.

U.S. crude futures
for February fell to an intra-day low of 88.16 dollars a barrel and the
lowest since December 20, 2010 while ICE Brent for February fell 71
cents to 92.82 dollars a barrel.

The U.S. dollar index rose by nearly 0.5 per cent on Wednesday, making oil more expensive for non-dollar buyers.

Losses on Wednesday
came despite data that previously showed a much larger-than-expected
7.5 million barrel drop in crude inventories in the final weeks of 2010.

Zambia narrowly
missed its 2010 copper output target due to temporary shutdowns at some
mines but Africa’s top producer was on track to dig out a million
tonnes by 2012, its mines minister said on Thursday.

Maxwell Mwale told
Reuters that 2010 copper output rose to 740,000 tonnes from 697,860
tonnes in 2009, below a 750,000 tonnes target for the year after some
companies briefly halted operations for maintaince.

China Non-Ferrous
Metals Corp. suspended production at its Baluba copper mine in Zambia
from November15 for 45 days to replace its ore hoisting system.

“We managed to
produce 740,000 tonnes of copper against our target of 750,000 tonnes,
but we are still on course to reach one million tonnes by 2012,” Mr.
Mwale said.

“We are ramping up
operations at major operations such as the Konkola Deep Mining project
and that will enable us reach the one million target,” he added.

Mr. Mwale said copper prices were expected to remain high in 2011, giving mining companies the incentive to raise their output.

He also said Zambia was looking for local and international firms to help it explore for copper and other minerals.

Egyptian mobile
operator, Orascom Telecom, said on Thursday its parent company, Weather
Investments, which plans a $6.6 billion deal to sell assets to Russian
operator Vimpelcom, has changed its name.

Weather, the
investment vehicle of Egyptian billionaire, Naguib Sawiris, switched
its name to Wind Telecom on December 30, Orascom Telecom said.

The holding company
agreed to sell controlling stakes in Orascom and Italian operator, Wind
Telecomunicazioni, in October, but opposition from Vimpelcom
shareholder, Telenor, has cast doubt on the deal.

It is now reviewing a revised offer for the assets.

Some
bank customers have challenged the Central Bank and commercial banks to
step up the publicity of the account update ordered by the regulator
last November.

The
Central Bank had directed bank customers to update their account
information by December 31, 2010, failing which such accounts would be
suspended with effect from January 1. But on January 3, the Central
Bank extended the deadline to January 31.

Some
banks have sent text messages to their customers while others are yet
to do so. There is, however, a caveat that the accounts of those who
failed to update them will be frozen.

Aduke
Olaide, a bank customer, said she withdrew her entire money from her
bank account so that she could think through the news properly. Another
customer, Femi Adewale, a finance executive with a public relations
firm in Lagos, said he is yet to get an alert from Ecobank but has
received series of text messages from Stanbic IBTC.

“One
thing is sure: this threat cannot work here. I am waiting to see the
person that would tamper with my money in my account. If someone thinks
he can sit somewhere and threaten Nigerians that if something does not
happen, another thing would happen, that must be a big joke,” Mr.
Adewale said.

“The
reason may be tangible, but this method is not it. The highest they can
do is through persuasion. Let people know why they should do that and
what can be achieved if they do so, not to say that some accounts would
be frozen,” he added.

‘We
are doing our best’ While some customers said they are not aware of the
directive, some banks claimed that they are doing their best to get the
information to the public as effectively as they can through their
websites, e-mails, and text messages.

They,
however, expressed reservations about the extended deadline because of
customers who are not in the country and who might not be in the
country before the January deadline.

“A big issue is our customers who are not in the country” a source at Spring Bank said.

“Some
of them don’t even have the course to be in the country in the next few
months, so handling such cases would be challenging. We cannot just
close or freeze their accounts like that without giving these people
adequate time for them to also have their update done. I have a feeling
that the date might still be shifted yet again,” he said.

“Since it is a Central Bank’s idea, they should also participate actively in the enlightenment,” he added.

Mohammed
Abdullahi, the Central Bank spokesperson, neither picked his calls nor
responded to text messages sent to him on the concerns of customers who
are currently out of the country and CBN’s part in enlightening the
public.

The positive trend which dominated the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) since trading sessions reopened this year continued on Thursday, with the market recording a two per cent increase.
At the close of trading, the market capitalisation recorded N167 billion gains to close the day at N8.4 trillion from N8.3 trillion. It had on Wednesday gained over N281 billion.
All the sectoral indexes maintained previous positive outlook as NSE-30, which measures the performance of blue chips in the market, gained by 2.50 per cent; the NSE Oil & Gas gained the highest point by 3.98 per cent; the Banking moved up by 3.07 per cent; Insurance appreciated by 1.65 per cent while the Food & Beverages closed with the lowest score to gain by 0.90 per cent.
Tunde Oladapo-Dixon, chief executive officer, StockPicks Consulting, a stock broking firm, said trading activities are still expected to show oscillatory performances during the year, despite the current rally in the market.
“Market performance will be oscillatory in movement because cautious trading is still expected during the year. When we see the breakdown and implementation of the 2011 budget and the macro access, we will also know the direction of the market because that dictates what happens in any economy,” Mr. Oladapo-Dixon said.
Gainers decline A total of 58 stocks appreciated in price on Thursday, lower than the 69 recorded the previous day, while 14 stocks depreciated in value higher than the 8 of Wednesday.
Total Oil and Nigerian Breweries topped the price gainers’ table with an increase of N11.00 and N3.95 on their opening prices of N223.00 and N79.05 per share. Oando Oil and Flour Mills Nigeria followed in the chart with an increase of N3.51 and N2.00 respectively, to close at N73.86 and N75.00 per share.
Cement Company of Northern Nigeria and Okomu Oil led on the price losers’ chart with a loss of 65 kobo and 40 kobo, to close at N14.71 and N14.80 per share. Vitafoam and Dangote Flour followed with a decrease of 30 kobo and 25 kobo on their initial prices of N6.75 and N17.95 per share.
Banks maintained lead
The Banking subsector maintained its lead as the most active with 565.252 million quantities of shares, valued at N6.7 billion. The subsector’s volume was largely driven by shares of Zenith Bank, followed by Access Bank, First Bank, and UBA.
Trading activities in the Insurance subsector was second highest yesterday, with 41.409 million shares valued at N34.591 million. Volume in the subsector was boosted by deals in shares of Continental Reinsurance, NEM Insurance, and Law Union & Rock Insurance.
The Food/Beverages subsector followed in the chart with 25.276 million shares worth N460.680 million. Dangote Sugar, Dangote Flour, and Tantalizers boosted the subsector’s volume.

The market
capitalisation of equities at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), on
Wednesday, hits N8.3 trillion as investors rally banks’ stocks.

Subsequently, it
rose by 3.5 per cent or N281 billion at the close of yesterday’s
trading from Tuesday’s figures of N8.019 trillion. The last time the
Exchange recorded market capitalisation in N8.3 trillion regions was
November 14, 2008.

Adedayo Idowu, an
analyst at Vetiva Capital Management Limited, a financial services
company, said the driver for the Nigerian equity market this year “will
be the banking sector.”

“As banks
consolidate on 2010 earnings and balance sheets recovery, especially
with the lighter non-performing loans burden on the back of the Assets
Management Company’s purchase of eligible toxic assets, we expect
looming attractive scorecards from value lenders to spur investors’
appetite for banking counters with expected positive rub-off on the
overall bourse,” Mr. Idowu said.

Most active

The banking
subsector was the most active Wednesday with 338.672 million quantities
of shares, valued at N3.766 billion, representing 66.4 per cent of the
entire market volume. The subsector’s volume was largely boosted by
shares of Zenith, First Bank, Diamond and Fidelity.

The food/beverages
subsector was second in the chart with 47.913 million shares worth
N865.169 million. Dangote Sugar, Tantalizers, and Dangote Flour boosted
the subsector’s volume.

Trading activities
in the insurance subsector followed, with 46.125 million shares valued
at N52.537 million. Volume in the subsector was driven by shares of
Continental Reinsurance, Niger Insurance, and Custodian and Allied
Insurance.

Higher gainers

The number of
gainers at the close of trading session closed higher on Wednesday at
69 stocks as against the 47 gainers recorded the previous session,
while decliners closed lower at eight stocks compared with the 17
losers recorded on Tuesday.

Dangote Cement led
on the gainers’ chart with an increase of N6 on its opening price of
N120 per share, while Oando and Flour Mills Nigeria followed with a
gain of N3.35 and N3, to close at N70.35 and N73 per share.

Total Nigeria
topped the price losers’ chart, shedding N11 to close at N223 per
share, while African Petroleum and Paints & Coating Manufacturing
followed with a loss of 34 kobo and 16 kobo on their opening prices of
N21.90 and N3.36 per share.

All the NSE
sectoral indexes maintained previous positive outlook on Wednesday as
NSE-30, which measures the performance of blue chips in the market,
gained by 5.21 per cent; the NSE Banking gained the highest point by
7.92 per cent; the Insurance moved up by 2.84 per cent; the
Food/Beverages appreciated by 2.77 per cent; while the NSE Oil/Gas
closed with lowest score to gain by 1.42 per cent.

Sanusi Lamido
Sanusi, the Central Bank governor, has been named as the world Central
Bank Governor of the Year by a global financial intelligence magazine,
The Banker, a publication of the Financial Times of London. Mr. Sanusi
is also the magazine’s African Central Bank governor of the year.

Brian Caplen,
editor of the magazine, noted that few candidate names can generate an
overall consensus on judging panels and yet, when it came to finding
the best global Central Bank governor of the year, Mr Sanusi was chosen
unanimously.

Mr Caplen stresses
that Mr Sanusi embarked on a radical anti-corruption campaign aimed at
saving 24 banks on the brink of collapse and pressed for the managers
involved in the most blatant cases of corruption to be charged and, in
the case of two senior bankers, convicted.

In a release signed
by the Country Representative, Nigeria of The Banker Magazine, Kunle
Ogedengbe, the magazine noted in its 2011 January Edition, which will
also be distributed at the World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland,
that in the last 18 months that since Mr Sanusi has been in office, he
has salvaged a crumbling Nigerian financial sector, including
implementing reforms that have put Africa’s most promising market back
on the map for investors globally.

Two months into his
governorship, Mr Sanusi embarked on the bailout of Afribank,
Intercontinental Bank, Union Bank, Oceanic Bank and Finbank and
dismissed their chief executive officers in a move designed to show
that banking is no longer business as usual but institutions that must
serve the economy as a whole. He also injected about N627 billion into
nine banks to save them from imminent collapse.

Another reform of
the banking sector introduced by Mr Sanusi has been to limit the tenure
of bank chief executive officers to a maximum of 10 years. They will
have to leave office at the end of their term regardless of their
record. This policy has already led to change of leadership at UBA,
Zenith and Skye banks.

Mr Caplen added
that the reforms initiated by Mr Sanusi have been hailed as necessary
to sanitise the banking industry and that observers have argued that,
had these reforms not been initiated, Nigeria would have entered into
another round of banking distress.

The Banker, a
publication of Financial Times Newspaper which is regarded as the most
influential newspaper in the world, is a global financial intelligence
magazine published since 1926. It is the definitive publication that
provides guide to bank ratings and analysis globally and the definitive
reference on international banking for finance experts, governments,
chief finance officers, CEOs, Central Bank governors, finance
ministers, and other decision makers globally.

Things have a
quirky way of becoming the vogue in Nigeria. And once entrenched,
unlike fads that come and go, these do not easily fade away. Think of
the funny emails often written in all capital letters and in very bad
language. They make many people laugh. But they also trap many others
who are as greedy as the fabricators of those mails. I cannot say if
such 419 soliciting started in Nigeria or if our compatriots simply
caught up with it and took over the trade. Whatever is the case, upper
case e-mail scams now have the reputation of being mainly a Nigerian
phenomenon.

Nigerians did not
invent the business of kidnapping. However, once it left the realms of
tales and took concrete foothold in the Niger Delta, it became a
Nigerian nightmare. In places like Aba, financial institutions had to
close for sometime because of the spate of kidnappings and general
insecurity. You would think that only the rich got targeted. No. Being
rich or poor makes no difference to the predators beyond the size of
the cash they could extort from the related families, associates,
corporations or government. Politicians, oil workers, journalists,
business people, the clergy, school children and just about anyone
became fair game.

When we examine the
trend closely it does appear that the manifestation of the levels of
primitive violence on our shores can be linked to fraud. In other
words, what we may well be witnessing is a manifestation of fraud in
its most crude form. And fraud appears to be very lucrative here
because even when caught, the punishment is a slap on the wrist.

When kidnapping
kingpins saw that taking oil company workers hostage was a quick way of
latching on the national looting train, they dug in and extended their
networks. When others saw that they could get their parents or
relatives to part with cash, they arranged to get “kidnapped” and by
that broke through to their supposedly selfish folks. Relatives
entrusted with the care of children suddenly became kidnappers and
others sent to pick up children from school suddenly developed wings
and orchestrated the now well-worn trade. Who would say that this is
not a manifestation of the 419 bent? If corporations, governments, and
security agents had refused to play ball right from the onset of this
phenomenon would it had grown to the current proportions?

The current fad is
to drop bombs with intent to wreak havoc on life and property. The
origin of this sort of violence is not Nigerian. There are certain
countries and regions that have been wrecked by this sort of senseless
destruction for decades now. Today, Nigeria risks becoming one of such
nations. Here, festive seasons have become preferred times to kill
people physically, and also to unleash social violence in the resultant
ripples. And so we witnessed the bombings in Abuja on national
Independence Day. While the military brass band struck matching notes,
the harbingers of death triggered their bombs. And on Christmas Eve,
bombs went off in Jos claiming innocent lives. The incidents in the
Maiduguri area is almost becoming routine. On New Year’s Eve, while
other nations ushered in the second decade of the millennium with
artistically engineered fireworks, the agents of destruction set off
bombs in a military barrack in Abuja.

Poverty fuels violence

The violence is
promoted by certain factors. One is the entrenched poverty. This
poverty has both financial and mental dimensions. Mental poverty
promotes votes rigging and other forms of electoral fraud. Politicians
who are used to getting into office or positions through fraudulent
processes use violence as a vital tool for achieving their aims. An
example is the mindless killings in Ibadan during a local government
congress of the People’s Democratic Party. The same can be said of the
bombings at a political rally in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State. In Akwa Ibom
State there has been a trend where a declaration of intention to run
for certain political offices has meant an invitation to violent
reactions on such individuals or their next of kin.

What will happen as
party primaries begin and as the election days arrive? Will it be safe
to drop a ballot in the box without the box exploding beneath our
hands? It is sad that at a time like this, a politician like Atiku
Abubakar would misapply a well known political statement that now
positions him as a supporter of violent change.

Is there a chance
that a nation exposed to this level of primordial violence can get out
of it without long-term scars? It will amount to wishful thinking for
anyone to assume that the violence in the land would not have lasting
effects on our national psyche. The violence has pushed the notion that
it is dangerous to engage in honest labours and that you need to be a
purveyor of violence before you can be a factor to be reckoned with in
the political scheme of things.

It is a known fact
that environmental factors such as entrenched pollution, as well as
drastic social events, affect not just the generations who witness such
events but also those that follow. These shock waves impact the genetic
information passed on to future generations at all levels. When major
shifts occur in quick successions, the disorienting effect can be
massive. Just imagine a cultural shift occurring within a generation.
We are experiencing this in Nigeria although some may claim this to be
a global phenomenon.

Doing the right thing has suddenly become obnoxious. Fraud is
celebrated and rewarded and often times with chieftaincy titles. Where
did all these start and where would they end? Bob Marley’s suggestion
(in his song, Real Situation) that total destruction may be the only
solution is anarchistic and we do not recommend that. But will we
continue to accept fraud and violence as the norm or shall we get angry
enough to trigger organised resistance?

The Bureau for
Public Enterprises (BPE) is in a fix on the next line of action in
selling the Nigerian Telecommunications Limited (NITEL), and its mobile
subsidiary, Mtel, following the recent failure of the preferred bidder
to meet its payment deadline.

New Generation
Consortium, the bid winner announced last February, was, more than
twice, given an extension by the National Council on Privatisation
(NCP) till December 23, 2010 to pay the initial bid security of $750
million (about N112.5 billion) for the offer.

But, surprisingly,
at the expiration of the deadline, Usman Gumi, New Generation chief
operating officer, said that the consortium was only able to send a
letter from its financiers to the BPE as proof of its financial
capacity to make the initial payment, and also the entire bid sum of
$2.5 billion, an arrangement that contravened the bid guidelines.

The guidelines
stipulate that the preferred bidder should make the payment by
electronic transfer or dollar-denominated bank draft to the account
designated by the BPE on or before the expiration of the deadline.

It was learnt
yesterday in Abuja that the privatisation agency has since commenced
consultations on the next line of action to bring to conclusion the
long transaction, which has already failed a record four times since
2001.

“What I have to
tell you is that it has become clear now that that the company (New
Generation Consortium) is either not serious, or that they do not have
the money to pay for NITEL,” a senior BPE official said in an interview.

“After the Federal
Government bent over backwards to extend the payment deadline more than
twice, there is nowhere a serious bidder would not reciprocate by
paying and closing the transaction. When we (BPE) resume from holidays
on Monday next week, the first thing management will do is to seek the
approval of the Presidency, through the NCP chairman, to consider other
options of bringing the bid process to a close,” he concluded.

Sale options

Two options,
proposed in March last year by the Adetokunbo Kayode-led ad-hoc
committee to review the sale, have always been open for consideration
following the initial confusion that trailed the bid, which culminated
in the sack of the then director general of the BPE, Christopher
Anyanwu.

These included a
recommendation for NCP to order the BPE to invite the reserve bidder to
come forward and take up the bid, or for the privatisation agency to
cancel the entire process and start afresh by calling for new
expression of interests (EoIs) from new investors.

Indications are
that the BPE might be willing to adopt the second option of annulling
the entire bid for a fresh start, as most of the groups that
participated in the February 2010 bid considered the New Generation
Consortium’s offer of $2.5 billion too over ambitious, and may not be
willing to have anything to do with it.

Calls to BPE
director general, Bolande Onagoruwa, for a confirmation did not go
through as her special assistant, Azeez Aderemi, confirmed she was yet
to return to the country from her foreign trip.