Nigeria Content Online

Transactions at the
equities segment of the Nigerian Stock Exchange closed for the week on
a depressed note on Friday, with the market capitalisation sliding by
N106 billion.

The News Agency of
Nigeria (NAN) reports that the market capitalisation closed at N8.361
trillion from the N8.467 trillion recorded on Thursday.

The All-Share Index
also depreciated by 1.26 per cent or 334.90 points to close at
26,169.86 against 26,504.76 recorded on Thursday.

Shares totalling
673.13 million and valued at N5.99 billion were exchanged in 8,034
deals on Friday, compared with the 701.73 million shares worth N8.30
billion traded in 7,471 deals on Thursday.

The banking
sub-sector continued to dominate other sub-sectors with 543.73 million
shares valued at N4.99 billion traded in 506 deals.

South African
resource-heavy stocks slipped on Friday, as a stronger dollar induced
investors to take profit from firmer mining shares.

The rand reversed
earlier losses against the greenback, despite data showing the Central
Bank took advantage of its gains in December to build up foreign
currency reserves.

The JSE Top-40
index of blue chips was down 0.68 per cent to 28,415.54, while the
broader All-share index dropped 0.58 per cent to 31,929.72.

“It’s just the miners that have brought us down,” David Shapiro, a trader at Sasfin said.

The JSE gold mining indices fell 0.97 per cent, bringing its decline in the year-to-date to 5.1 per cent.

The U.S. government
Millennium Challenge Corporation has given Malawi a $350 million grant
to overhaul its energy sector, whose dire condition is a major brake on
the African state’s economic growth.

A U.S. statement
said the five-year grant should help improve Malawi’s erratic power
supply, which economists say costs the country about $215 million a
year and deters new investment.

According to its
energy ministry, Malawi had 63 days of power outages in 2009, one of
the worst performances in the sub-Saharan region.

Its current
installed electricity capacity is 282.5 MW compared to estimated demand
of 344 MW, and only seven per cent of the 13 million population have
access to electricity, with the rest relying on firewood and charcoal
for energy.

The
Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) has
constituted a committee to review petitions on the presidential
concession granted Bayelsa State last year to enable it earn derivation
revenue from nine oil wells.

The
Commission is constitutionally empowered to determine the revenue
allocation formula, including indices for the disbursement to all tiers
of government.

Though
the committee, constituted late last week during the emergency session
of the Commission in Abuja, is yet to be inaugurated, its terms of
reference might include findings on the legality of the concession in
line with the constitutional provisions on derivation revenue earnings
by oil producing states.

Though
a senior official of the Commission, who pleaded anonymity, said
yesterday that it would be preemptive to suggest the outcome of the
committee’s findings and recommendations, it was, however, gathered
that Bayelsa State may be asked to make some refunds if found that
about N20billion excess revenue earned so far was without any
constitutional basis.

“The
issue has to be followed constitutionally,” the source said.
“Derivation revenue is paid to oil producing states on the strength of
the relevant provisions of the constitution. If in the course of the
committee’s work, it is found that Bayelsa State earned revenues which
the Constitution did not provide for, the government would be asked to
make some refunds. But, it would be preemptive to say exactly what
would happen now, particularly as the committee was inaugurated only
last week on the eve of the last day of last year,” the senior official
said.

He,
however, disclosed that the meeting presided over by its new Chairman,
Elias Mbam, had agreed that further disbursement of revenue on the
principles of the concession be suspended to afford the committee the
opportunity to complete its work and make appropriate recommendations
to the Commission.

Controversial concession

The
concession, which has already lifted Bayelsa State to become the
highest derivation revenue earner among the oil producing states, was
sequel to a request by Governor Timipre Sylva for approval for the
attribution of nine oil fields to the state to assuage negative impact
of the delineation of maritime boundaries of littoral states by the
National Boundary Commission (NBC) in the wake of the promulgation of
the Offshore/Onshore Dichotomy Abrogation Act 2004.

The
delineation was to establish the maritime boundaries of littoral states
located beyond the 200-metre isobaths, to produce data for the
attribution of 13 percent derivation to states.

Prior
to the controversial concession, allocation of derivation revenue was
based on the volume of oil production figures attributable to each oil
producing state, with Akwa Ibom topping, followed by Rivers, and Delta
States, while Bayelsa brought the rear.

However,
with the revised 13 percent derivation indices, payment of derivation
since last July based on the concession raised Bayelsa State’s total
oil production to about 15,995,773 barrels, making it the highest
derivation revenue earner ahead of Rivers (13,317,840 barrels), Akwa
Ibom (12,796,954 barrels) and Delta (11,163,493 barrels).

At
the end of last Friday’s controversial disbursement of $1billion (about
N150billion) end-of-year bonanza from the Excess Crude Account by the
Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) shared by the three
tiers of government, Bayelsa State went home with the highest
allocation of $40million among the nine oil producing states.

Accordingly,
Akwa Ibom was allocated $30million; Rivers, $28million; Delta,
$21million; Ondo, $4million; Abia, $1.3million; Imo $1.26million; Edo
$1.2million and Cross River, $1million.

The Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) disbursed N8.281 billion during the fourth quarter of
2010 under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS).

According to data
on the Bank’s website, a total of N96.811 billion has so far been
disbursed to 86 projects/promoters and 18 state governments in the
second tranche since the scheme began in 2009. This brings the number
of beneficiaries to 104, out of 347 projects that applied to benefit
from the scheme.

The CBN in 2009 set
aside N200 billion for onward lending to farmers under the scheme
towards boosting agricultural production in the country. The balance of
CACS funds as at December, 2010 stood at N103.189 billion.

In a memorandum to
the National Economic Council, the Central Bank said that under the
second tranche, 18 state governments: Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Enugu,
Gombe, Kebbi, Kogi, Imo, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Ondo, Sokoto, Taraba
Zamfara, FCT, Akwa Ibom and Rivers accessed N1billion each for
on-lending to farmers’ co-operatives and other areas of agricultural
interventions in their various states.

Food security

The initiative is
expected to enhance food security, reduce cost of credit in
agricultural production, and increase output and employment in the
sector. Target commodities under the scheme include the cultivation of
target crops (rice, cassava, cotton, oil palm, wheat, rubber, sugar
cane, fruits, and vegetable); livestock (dairy, poultry, piggery); and
fisheries.

As at December,
2010, 11 banks: Access, Fidelity, First, Guaranty Trust, Oceanic, Skye,
Stanbic IBTC, Union Bank, UBA, Unity and Zenith are participating under
the scheme. UBA has the highest disbursement of N35.162 billion
followed by Zenith with N13.835 billion, Union, N10.903 billion, First
Bank, N9.135 billion and Skye Bank with N6 billion. Also, N13.934
billion, comprising N11.353 billion from UBA, N2.00 billion from Skye
Bank and N0.581 billion from GTB has been withdrawn in respect of
undisbursed funds.

Eligibility

Under the
eligibility guidelines released by the Central Bank, borrowers under
the scheme shall be a limited liability company, with asset base of not
less than N350 million, and with prospect to grow the net asset to N500
million in the next three years and comply with the provision of the
Company and Allied Matters Act (1990). This, however, is not applicable
to loans taken by state government for on-lending.

Such companies must
also have a clear business plan, provide up-to-date record on the
business operation, if any, and satisfy the entire requirement
specified by its lending bank. According to the CBN, “interest on loan
shall not exceed nine per cent, inclusive of all charges.

To ensure safety of
the funds, the banks bear the credit risk of the loans, while state
government have to sign an irrevocable standing payment order (ISPO) in
favour of the CBN to deduct at source the total amount in default from
the states on monthly basis of State revenue allocation.

The following company announcements, scheduled economic indicators, debt and currency market moves and political events may affect African markets on Wednesday.

– – – – –

EVENTS

DAR ES SALAAM – Tanzania to auction Treasury bills of all maturities. The weighted average yield on Tanzania’s 91-day treasury bill rose to 5.48 percent at the last auction from 4.99 percent previously.

GLOBAL MARKETS

Asian stocks slid on Wednesday following a broad commodities sell-off but the U.S. dollar edged higher after stronger-than expected U.S. factory data offered further evidence of an economic recovery. [ID:nL3E7C500Q]

AFRICAN MARKETS

For all the latest news on African stocks click on [.J]

SOUTH AFRICA MARKETS

South Africa’s rand fell as much as 1.2 percent against the dollar on Tuesday as import pressure built up after the holidays, while government bonds rallied on expectations that interest rates will be cut this month. [ID:nLDE7031F5]

IVORY COAST CRISIS

Ivory Coast’s Laurent Gbagbo has agreed to further talks to end his country’s post-election crisis, buying himself time after a demand by African leaders that he step down or face force. [ID:nLDE7030WA]

NIGERIA MARKETS

Nigeria’s all-share index rose to its highest level since late November on Tuesday with banks leading the charge after the state-run Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) issued bonds to enable it to buy up bad loans.

The index of Nigeria’s top ten banks rose 3.27 percent, helping lift the broader index 1.34 percent to 25,102.93 points on the first trading day of the year.

NIGERIA POLITICS

A Nigerian opposition party on Tuesday confirmed ex-military ruler Muhammadu Buhari as its presidential candidate for April elections, set to be the most fiercely contested since the return to democracy 12 years ago. [ID:nLDE7031OT]

KENYA MARKETS

The Kenyan shilling KES= recouped earlier losses against the dollar to finish unchanged while banks led stocks to meager gains on the back of expectations they will benefit from higher growth. [ID:nLDE70312R]

KENYA CORRUPTION

A Kenyan government minister pleaded not guilty to a dozen counts of abuse of office on Tuesday, hours after resigning to allow for an investigation into a scam involving imports of untaxed vehicles. [ID:nLDE70302R]

GHANA POLITICS

Ghanaian President John Atta Mills reshuffled his cabinet on Tuesday but kept key positions like foreign affairs, finance and defence unchanged, according to a press release issued by his office. [ID:nLDE7031OO]

SEYCHELLES ECONOMY

Seychelles’ economic growth is expected to moderate to 5 percent by 2013, but vigilance is needed against inflationary and exchange rate risks, the International Monetary Fund said. [ID:nLDE70401A]

COMMODITIES

For the latest precious metals report click on [GOL/]

For the latest base metals report click on [MET/L]

For the latest crude oil report click on [O/L]

The market
capitalisation of equities at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), on
Wednesday, hits N8.3 trillion as investors rally banks’ stocks.

Subsequently, it
rose by 3.5 per cent or N281 billion at the close of yesterday’s
trading from Tuesday’s figures of N8.019 trillion. The last time the
Exchange recorded market capitalisation in N8.3 trillion regions was
November 14, 2008.

Adedayo Idowu, an
analyst at Vetiva Capital Management Limited, a financial services
company, said the driver for the Nigerian equity market this year “will
be the banking sector.”

“As banks
consolidate on 2010 earnings and balance sheets recovery, especially
with the lighter non-performing loans burden on the back of the Assets
Management Company’s purchase of eligible toxic assets, we expect
looming attractive scorecards from value lenders to spur investors’
appetite for banking counters with expected positive rub-off on the
overall bourse,” Mr. Idowu said.

Most active

The banking
subsector was the most active Wednesday with 338.672 million quantities
of shares, valued at N3.766 billion, representing 66.4 per cent of the
entire market volume. The subsector’s volume was largely boosted by
shares of Zenith, First Bank, Diamond and Fidelity.

The food/beverages
subsector was second in the chart with 47.913 million shares worth
N865.169 million. Dangote Sugar, Tantalizers, and Dangote Flour boosted
the subsector’s volume.

Trading activities
in the insurance subsector followed, with 46.125 million shares valued
at N52.537 million. Volume in the subsector was driven by shares of
Continental Reinsurance, Niger Insurance, and Custodian and Allied
Insurance.

Higher gainers

The number of
gainers at the close of trading session closed higher on Wednesday at
69 stocks as against the 47 gainers recorded the previous session,
while decliners closed lower at eight stocks compared with the 17
losers recorded on Tuesday.

Dangote Cement led
on the gainers’ chart with an increase of N6 on its opening price of
N120 per share, while Oando and Flour Mills Nigeria followed with a
gain of N3.35 and N3, to close at N70.35 and N73 per share.

Total Nigeria
topped the price losers’ chart, shedding N11 to close at N223 per
share, while African Petroleum and Paints & Coating Manufacturing
followed with a loss of 34 kobo and 16 kobo on their opening prices of
N21.90 and N3.36 per share.

All the NSE
sectoral indexes maintained previous positive outlook on Wednesday as
NSE-30, which measures the performance of blue chips in the market,
gained by 5.21 per cent; the NSE Banking gained the highest point by
7.92 per cent; the Insurance moved up by 2.84 per cent; the
Food/Beverages appreciated by 2.77 per cent; while the NSE Oil/Gas
closed with lowest score to gain by 1.42 per cent.

Sanusi Lamido
Sanusi, the Central Bank governor, has been named as the world Central
Bank Governor of the Year by a global financial intelligence magazine,
The Banker, a publication of the Financial Times of London. Mr. Sanusi
is also the magazine’s African Central Bank governor of the year.

Brian Caplen,
editor of the magazine, noted that few candidate names can generate an
overall consensus on judging panels and yet, when it came to finding
the best global Central Bank governor of the year, Mr Sanusi was chosen
unanimously.

Mr Caplen stresses
that Mr Sanusi embarked on a radical anti-corruption campaign aimed at
saving 24 banks on the brink of collapse and pressed for the managers
involved in the most blatant cases of corruption to be charged and, in
the case of two senior bankers, convicted.

In a release signed
by the Country Representative, Nigeria of The Banker Magazine, Kunle
Ogedengbe, the magazine noted in its 2011 January Edition, which will
also be distributed at the World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland,
that in the last 18 months that since Mr Sanusi has been in office, he
has salvaged a crumbling Nigerian financial sector, including
implementing reforms that have put Africa’s most promising market back
on the map for investors globally.

Two months into his
governorship, Mr Sanusi embarked on the bailout of Afribank,
Intercontinental Bank, Union Bank, Oceanic Bank and Finbank and
dismissed their chief executive officers in a move designed to show
that banking is no longer business as usual but institutions that must
serve the economy as a whole. He also injected about N627 billion into
nine banks to save them from imminent collapse.

Another reform of
the banking sector introduced by Mr Sanusi has been to limit the tenure
of bank chief executive officers to a maximum of 10 years. They will
have to leave office at the end of their term regardless of their
record. This policy has already led to change of leadership at UBA,
Zenith and Skye banks.

Mr Caplen added
that the reforms initiated by Mr Sanusi have been hailed as necessary
to sanitise the banking industry and that observers have argued that,
had these reforms not been initiated, Nigeria would have entered into
another round of banking distress.

The Banker, a
publication of Financial Times Newspaper which is regarded as the most
influential newspaper in the world, is a global financial intelligence
magazine published since 1926. It is the definitive publication that
provides guide to bank ratings and analysis globally and the definitive
reference on international banking for finance experts, governments,
chief finance officers, CEOs, Central Bank governors, finance
ministers, and other decision makers globally.

Banks
have been asked to stop excessive provisioning for non performing loans
in their books as the Asset Management Corporation will buy the rescued
banks loans and also the margin loans of other banks, say some finance
experts.

“With
the execution of this transaction, (a three year zero coupon
consideration bonds) non performing loans concerns across the banking
sector have got a major relief. This clearly lays to rest the days of
provisioning surprises, as the full participation of the banks in this
process cements the days of troubled past,” says Adesoji Solanke, an
equity research analyst at Renaissance Group, an investment banking
firm.

Mr. Solanke added that the sector is expected to be more focused this year, with its non performing loans taken care of.

“We
welcome revamped lending practices and a more defined business focus in
the sector, and see moderate, sustainable, and higher quality earnings
dotting the sky line in the next few years,” he added.

The
non performing loans acquired from the cleared banks (margin loans)
stands at N167 billion, which represents 8.6 per cent of the total non
performing loans acquired today, while the balance 91.4 per cent or
N1.78 trillion came from the troubled banks.

Banks comparative stock performance

Despite
the challenges faced by the banks and the burden of non performing
loans they had to bear, experts say the sector performed relatively
well at the stock market, except for a few.

“The
Nigeria Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ALSI) closed 18.93 per cent
up, effectively bucking a two-year bleeding trend. Nigerian banks
played a huge part in this return to the greens, with 76 per cent of
listed banks posting positive (Year to date) YTD returns compared to
just 13 per cent in 2009,” a report from Renaissance Capital stated.

“Sterling
Bank was the sector’s jewel, posting an 88 per cent year to date climb,
coming on the back of a 49 per cent dip in 2009. Skye Bank followed
with a distant 60 per cent (YTD) rise. On the flip side, Ecobank
Nigeria was the poster boy, as it emerged the worst performing stock
amongst the cleared banks for the second consecutive year – 62 per cent
in 2009 and 66 per cent in 2010,” it further said.

According
to the report, First Bank and UBA, alongside Union Bank and Afribank,
all recorded a second year of year to date losses. Oceanic, Unity, and
Wema banks also did well, with average YTD gains of 43 per cent and
only GTBank, Access Bank, and FCMB posted their second consecutive year
of positive YTD performance.

Ecobank
declined to speak on why the bank emerged the worst performing stock
amongst the cleared banks for the second consecutive year, as the
corporate affairs official said he was not in the position to speak on
investment performance matters on behalf of the bank and that the
person authorised to speak on the issue was not available.

A source at the bank, however, said a number of issues may have caused the poor performance of the stock.

“You
know that dividends are among things that actually push stock
performance in the market. Investors may say that dividends have not
been regular.

“Besides,
once you have a parent company, there is the tendency that investors
would prefer investing in the parent company, ETI, than in Ecobank
itself,” the source said.

One can only hope
that the news reports are wrong. A misreading of a new policy; in which
case, some public officer may have “mis-spoken”. The consequences of
the Central Bank’s recent decision to tighten procedures for accessing
foreign exchange (forex), by requiring banks to scrutinise the history
of both domestic importers and their overseas suppliers before making
forex available to the importers, are worrying.

Though this
decision reflects the apex bank’s support of the Federal Government’s
resolve to limit the importation of unwanted goods, especially arms,
into the country, this policy is wrong-headed for several reasons.

Ideally, the
punishment for illegal importation of any kind should include
forfeiture of the consignment; and either a fine and/or imprisonment of
the offenders; including every known accessory to the crime. Now, this
requires that two institutions of the state work properly: the customs
department, which must be able to interdict the shipment; and the
criminal justice system, responsible thereafter for the successful
prosecution of the case against the importers.

Since the customs
department is wont to let the occasional ball slip, the police
prosecute the case fecklessly, and/or the court processes be too drawn
out to result in justice being meted out correctly, the punishment
might not sufficiently reward the crime. Or, put differently, because
existing domestic incentives in one sector of our national life might
reward deviant conduct in another, is it possible that the CBN may have
designed policy to help government do the job of both the customs
department and the criminal justice system?

The fear is not
that the apex bank is about to become the cure-all to the nation’s
myriad complaints (although it recently found initiatives for
re-financing just about every sector of the economy). Instead, the
bigger worry is that the CBN’s new initiative, by requiring each bank
to validate underlying transactions and supporting documents before
selling forex to importers, adds a fresh administrative burden to an
industry already labouring and heavy-laden. Ought not the apex bank to
know better, especially in view of its previous commitment to removing
all administrative burdens from the foreign exchange market in search
of eventual naira convertibility?

Could the CBN then
had intended other consequences for its action? One obvious consequence
of increasing the administrative burden of participating in any market
is the resultant behaviour of prices. If the burden is on the demand
side, and supply remains constant, prices should fall. If the burden
constrains supply while leaving demand unchanged, then prices should
rise. Now, we all know that the CBN had problems funding the supply
side of the forex market in the latter half of last year. So bad was
the problem that despite rising oil prices, better domestic crude oil
production stats, and improved autonomous inflow into the market, the
naira still depreciated marginally, and the gross external reserves
even more so.

Given this dynamic,
concerns began to be raised towards the end of the year over the
prospects for the naira’s exchange rate. If the CBN was rapidly running
out of ammo with which to support its sense of the naira’s exchange
value, how long before speculators piled in, and started “shorting” the
naira?

The apex bank’s
main bulwark against this possibility is the fact that it runs a pretty
rigged market for foreign currency sales. Add to this the absence of a
futures market for the naira, and it is well nigh impossible to borrow
a futures contract on it, sell this on, in the understanding that it
could be bought at a lower price in future and returned to the original
lender.

Thus, by increasing
the administrative burden on market participants, the CBN may have
resolved to further ring-fence the naira against anticipated demand
pressures in the new year. But there are unintended consequences to
this.

If demand continues
to build for foreign currencies, as election-related spending increases
the naira’s supply, the CBN’s action may have the effect of trying to
squeeze hard on a balloon: divert pressure to the unofficial markets,
leading to a widening of the arbitrage window between the parallel and
official markets.

Inevitably, a
vicious cycle, a downward spiral in the market for forex would build
up, as marginal arbitrage opportunities further drive up demand for
forex.