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Can Jega take us to the Promised Land?

Can Jega take us to the Promised Land?

“The office of the INEC chairman is a
mausoleum of reputations. Hope Jega’s has not begun the journey to
embalmment,” a Nigerian commentator said of Saturday’s election
postponement.

The news first came via an
Ibadan-based journalist. He informed his editors in Lagos, that a
source told him, that INEC will postpone the National Assembly
elections. One of the editors dismissed it outrightly, saying there
would have been a formal announcement and the commission cannot do
that, “it would be disastrous,” he concluded.

But the other editors started to work
the phones. And bit by bit, information kept trickling in that the
elections would be cancelled. First, it was some parts of the Federal
Capital Territory. Then, Niger, Edo, Plateau, Ekiti, Rivers, and Taraba
States.

Some minutes after noon, the INEC big
masquerade, Attahiru Jega, in a press briefing, confirmed what some
Nigerians had suspected. The elections, he said, have been postponed
till Monday, April 4, while offering his apologies and regrets.

The initial reports across the country
were basically that of lateness. Anxious voters all ready and waiting
to exercise their franchise, but INEC officials were not in sight. A
drive across Oshodi-Isolo local government area of Lagos State between
9 and 9:30am revealed committed voters and security agents waiting on
the commission. Young men played football to while away the time and
accreditation of voters did not commence on time.

Mr. Jega’s excuse was that result
sheets were not ready for the elections. “The reason for this is the
unanticipated emergency we have experienced with late arrival of result
sheets in many parts of the country. The result sheets are central to
the elections and their integrity. Accordingly, in many places, our
officials have not reported at the polling units, making it now
difficult to implement the Modified Open Ballot procedure that we have
adopted,” the chairman said.

Mr. Jega assumed office in July 2010
and by August, the Senate approved N87.7 billion for INEC under his
watch; a situation that had never been witnessed before in the country.
The money was meant for vehicles, collapsible ballot boxes, voter
register review, hotel accommodation for state INEC electoral
commissioners, and other items. Mercifully, a further request for N6.6
billion last February to complete the voters’ registration that was
extended by a week, was turned down by the National Assembly.

Questions, more questions

As Nigerians debate the propriety or
otherwise of this postponement, there are many questions that ought to
be answered. The country was shut down yesterday and if the elections
will hold tomorrow, who bears the cost of tomorrow’s economic
paralysis? How true is it that some state governors’ attempts to
manipulate the elections prompted the non-availability of the result
sheets, thereby forcing a postponement? Is it better to suffer
postponement than to have elections fraught with irregularities? Will
anybody bear the cost of this late delivery, after all the money the
exercise has gulped?

The political science professor came
to office with a lot of goodwill, as nearly all Nigerians admitted he
is one of the best, for the thankless job of elections’ chief umpire.
Moreover, he was part of an electoral reform panel headed by former
Chief Justice Mohammed Uwais and the INEC job offered him a vantage
position to correct some of the ills the panel identified. But while
some Nigerians are still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt,
as seen in their comments after the postponement, will tomorrow’s
elections not witness similar hiccups? Is the commission truly ready
for the elections?

Good and credible election used to be regarded as a fanciful
concept, something beyond the reach of successive electoral bodies in
our country; can Attahiru Jega take us to the Promised Land?

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Is gold jewellery a good investment?

Is gold jewellery a good investment?

Chidinma Okoro has been unemployed since she got laid off in September last year. Her husband’s previously thriving business has struggled for a few years. This made Mrs Okoro’s contribution all the more critical for the family. With school fees due, things had become quite desperate. She then heard about a friend who had sold some of her gold and received a handsome amount for it.

Mrs Okoro gathered three gold chains-one of them broken, two pairs of earrings, and one half of a pair, five gold pendants and some old fashioned pieces that she hardly ever wore. The dealer weighed up her haul and gave Mrs Okoro N360, 000.

She was overjoyed, as they now had enough money to take care of their immediate needs. It is at such economic crossroads that people often sell little used but valuable jewellery to help to settle their bills and debts.

For those who keep gold jewellery, selling it at this time is all the more tempting with adverts all over the Internet and with gold dealers beckoning. The offers are so appealing. Before you decide to go ahead, carefully consider some of these issues.

How much is your jewellery worth?

Unfortunately, many desperate consumers are getting fleeced. Adverts tend to publish phrases like “highest prices guaranteed”, “best prices paid”, “competitive prices” to attract clients; buyers often appear reluctant to reveal what they will pay per ounce or gramme of gold. There is usually a wide variance between a fair price and what the seller actually receives. Indeed, if you take gold jewellery of the same weight and karat to a number of dealers, you will be surprised at the number of different offers.

Have at least a rough idea of what your jewellery is worth before you approach potential buyers. Start by obtaining the current spot price of gold, to at least give you some idea of what to expect, otherwise, you run the risk of accepting a ridiculous offer that doesn’t really reflect the true value of your pieces.

Who will buy your gold?

Trade your gold through reputable and reliable jewellery dealers who have been in the business for some years; they are likely to be more transparent in their dealings as they have a reputation to protect. In the alternative, you can choose dealers with good customer ratings, or who come highly recommended by your usual jeweller or trusted friends.

Protect your gold Secure your expensive gold jewellery in a home safe, bank safe deposit box, or other protected location. It is a good idea to properly insure your jewellery for its full value so you have additional protection against loss from theft or fire. To do this, you will usually be required to purchase additional coverage from your insurance company through an endorsement. In this regard, be sure to keep receipts and any documents or certificates safely, with an additional copy stored on file or in an alternative location as an extra precaution. These will be important should you ever have to make a claim.

Is jewellery a good investment?

In the traditional sense of investing, a good investment is one which appreciates steadily in value over time. Jewellery is a bit like a new car; you tend to lose value the moment you drive it out of the car show room. Second-hand jewellery usually attracts much less than its initial value. The overall value of jewellery must also take into account more subjective elements, such as the design or style, fashion trends and the skill or workmanship involved in crafting the pieces. The mark up on jewellery can be so significant as all these elements are included in its cost. This all makes gold jewellery a very worthwhile gift, but not necessarily an ideal investment. One should thus be cautious when purchasing gold jewellery for investment purposes.

Research has shown that gold does add some stability to a diversified investment portfolio consisting of the traditional asset classes, including cash, bonds, mutual funds and stocks. Some advisors even go as far as recommending that a balanced portfolio should include between 5 and 10 percent allocation to gold. Commodity prices tend to be volatile and gold is no different so it is important to spread your risk.

There are various ways of investing in gold. These include: investing directly through the purchase of certified gold coins or sovereigns, gold bullion or bars, or indirectly through shares in gold mining companies, gold based mutual funds, or Exchange Traded Funds (EFT), which are a most popular vehicle for investing in gold. This provides a convenient way of owning the metal as you don’t keep physical possession of it, and as such do not run the attendant risks. Yet one has the flexibility of being able to sell and readily convert it into cash.

Investing in gold has been a widely accepted financial practice for thousands of years. In recent times, as investors all over the world have seen their asset values plummet, from real estate to stocks, it is no surprise that with gold hitting record levels of over $1,400 per ounce, even the most conservative and traditional investors have begun to look to this metal as a good alternative. Gold jewellery has been a convenient and enjoyable way to preserve wealth and is a means to transfer that wealth through generations in a form that has, not only monetary value, but significant sentimental value as well.

Write to personalfinance@234next.com with your questions and comments. All letters will be considered for publication, and if selected, may be edited.

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‘Nigeria needs fundamental rethinking to progress’

‘Nigeria needs fundamental rethinking to progress’

Nigeria’s expansive budget

We run an economy today that is based on budgeting. But, to a large extent, our culture does not encourage budgeting. In advanced economies that we are copying, if one lives on a monthly salary, it is difficult to expect one to share with members of one’s family, outside those in one’s nuclear family. In some instances, as one’s children attain the age of 18, parents would ask them to move out to get a council flat to live on their own.

There is nothing like: “Sorry, I was passing by and remembered my relation lives here and I said I should stop by to greet him”, and perhaps, expect that in appreciation of the courtesy, one would reach into one’s pockets to accommodate the unexpected visitor. From which budget is that going to come from?

That is why that, even from the federal level, government officials complain about the budget even before they begin to implement it, because what the executive submitted the lawmakers have gone to inject several other things for their selfish interests, thereby making it too expensive for government to manage within the limited resources available.

At individual level, it appears budgets are not meant to be followed. The point is that there are cultural issues that continue to militate against what we want to achieve both as individuals and as a nation.

The good news is that we can tinker with those cultural issues. But, the only way we can do that is to document those issues. Are we documenting the fact that our patronage and rent seeking culture can come between us and the achievement of the objectives of our national budgets?

Or are we aware that our culture is at the roots of the do-or-die politics that is playing out in our polity as a result of the prevalence of a patronage culture, whereby anyone that gets political appointment gets thousands of people hanging on his neck for one support or the other?

Role of corruption

Often we talk about corruption. Nigerians were not born corrupt. If we take the sample of seven year-old Nigerians today and compare with the opinions of their counterparts in Europe on corruption, the truth is that we are most likely going to discover that the latter would be more corrupt than the former.

Children in Europe are more exposed to television and other media, like the Internet, than their counterparts in Nigeria. So, at what point did we lose our innocence to become the most corrupt?

In 1927, Nnamdi Azikiwe went to work in one of the deepest coal mines in West Pennsylvania for six weeks. On coming out to collect his pay, the Janitor handed him only $294.95. He rejected it and threw a challenge at the white guy that he has been short changed. Despite threats to deal with him for his boldness to make such accusation, Zik insisted to have his correct pay. When he was allowed to do the calculation, it was found out that, indeed, about $200 was skimmed off his money.

Today, more than 94 years later, Nigerians, who are the direct descendants of Zik, are first treated in any part of the world as corrupt people, until proven innocent, while the descendants of that white Janitor, who wanted to defraud Zik in 1927, are seen as the epitome of anti-corruption and cleanliness. Yet, Nigerians are not saying anything to ourselves.

Nigerians are not corrupt. Being stupid might be the better word, because we see our leaders steal money from our treasures, monies they, sometimes, don’t need, and go to establish gigantic businesses that help develop other peoples’ economies, leaving the people to die of poverty.

Nigerians need to be more analytical and deeper in our though processes to inspire change.

Getting out of the economic woods

The ideal starting point is for all Nigerians to become less and less selfish and curb our ego. The difference between Nigeria and the advanced countries is the attitude of the citizens. One would not be known for the biggest houses one builds in one’s village when one is gone, but from the value of the sustainable work one did while alive.

We need to undergo a structural mental adjustment as a country to inspire a turnaround in our economy. What Nigeria needs to become a great country is just a few good men, who know what is right, and are ready to lead the change process, as not all Nigerians can change at the same time.

Living in poverty amidst wealth

Nigeria is not that rich, even in natural resources. The wealth of any country is not measured by the number of extractive resources it has, because the future does not belong to these countries that extract and export natural resources, but to those who think and control the wealth of knowledge.

As was documented during the time of the Dutch disease that those countries with natural resources, like crude oil, was likely going to ignore the other potentialities.

Today, as a result of oil, Nigerians have tended to forget the development of the most important resource – the human brain. That is why government continues to focus all its attention to explore, produce and export all the crude oil abroad, and use all the revenues to import refined products for our domestic consumption. What we do is that we import what we have and export what we do not need.

United States produces 8.5million barrels of oil a day, and not one single barrel is sold abroad. They are stored in giant reservoirs for the rainy day. Recall the recent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico which attracted a lot of global attention by environmentalists. But, what happens in the Niger Delta, as a result of decades of oil exploitation? The western companies have devastated the environment and left the people permanently devalued, just because the technology to explore and produce the crude oil belongs to them.

What if Nigeria did not have oil?

Perhaps, if Nigeria didn’t have oil we would not have governors driving around in official convoys of more than 25 bullet-proof SUVs.

If Nigeria did not have crude oil, probably our expectations would have been managed better. Not only should we manage our expectations from political office holders, who always believe they should be seen as demi-gods, but also the expectations from even the common man in the streets. With that we can focus more on things we can do to make our country a great place, rather than what we can get from our country.

When we look at the way things are going in Nigeria and compare with what is happening in other climes, one is convinced that we are heading for extinction. It is very easy to set us against ourselves.

Nigerians may be laughing over the crisis in Libya and Egypt today. But, if anyone wants to cause a serious upheaval in Nigeria, all that needs to be done is to go to a few markets to amplify a claim of what one religious group has done against another, or one tribal sentiment against another tribe, and the country would collapse on its head in minutes.

When countries want to develop, either to stay at the top or rise, they don’t spare any expense to go at it. No resource is too costly for them to remain at the top.

Sharia banking and the legal question Societies develop on the basis of trust. When trust disappears, fear creeps in and society goes back to that state that Thomas Hobbes describes as ‘short and brutish’.

If there was trust, one would not need to talk about whether Sharia banking is in the constitution or not, because often we tend to be so fixated about constitution.

From the finance perspective, Sharia banking is a product of financial diversification. The Islamic Bank of Britain has branches all over the country and there is no furore about it, as we have in Nigeria. Islamic banking is growing around the world, and Nigeria cannot afford to be left out from the numerous benefits.

We need to have more instruments in the banking industry. If we say we want to become the financial hub of the region or continent, we cannot have the kind of bland banking we have here to get there. We need alternatives for business, beyond collecting deposits and giving loans at huge interest rates.

Nigeria reflects African economy

The sad thing is that a lot of these things about Nigeria also apply to the development in most African countries, especially sub-Saharan Africa. It is not about how others have helped under-develop Africa, but what we have been doing wrong within. The truth is that except we right the wrongs, or the rest of the world correct the wrong they have been doing to Africa, then we cannot make progress.

If we stop being corrupt and undisciplined, and we still live in a global society where the influences of foreign countries can disorganise all our imaginations and calculations, then we won’t get there. If, suddenly, all the foreign countries forget about their personal interests for African countries to make progress, and we don’t change our ways, we wouldn’t also make progress.

We have got to a point where things have become so bad that we must start to solve all the problems at the same time. It is not enough to say, let’s start with fixing energy, because even if there was adequate supply of electricity today and the structures remain unchanged, we probably would not know what to do with it. It is so bad that just fixing that alone would not solve a lot of problems. That is why government has spent about $16billion in that sector since 1999, yet not enough result.

Africa needs to be Crushed

‘Crushed’ is an acronym for the strategies one believes Nigeria, nay Africa, needs to take, if it must get out of the cycle of underdevelopment. It is the title of my latest book: Crushed: Africa’s Tortuous Quest for Development, which has highlighted those fundamentals that are lacking in the continent’s quest for development.

C stands for courage. We need to have the courage to curb corruption.

R stands for being realistic and reasonable in terms of our ambition and the things we can achieve as a nation. It also means that we need to accept responsibility for the things we want to achieve for our lives.

U stands for unity, without which we are finished. This is something we do not have. We can mouth it, but our actions and pronouncements daily shows that we are not ready to be united as a people.

S stands for Strategy. It is not enough to wish or pray we should be great. Yet, it is not enough to merely work for greatness. We should be able to imagine the journey, catalogue the likely obstacles (both internal and external), and plan appropriate responses from day one.

H stands for hard work, history and humility. Development is not a destination but what one works for. Winston Churchill said ‘Any nation that forgets its past is not entitled to a future’. We don’t care about our own history. Schools don’t teach history anymore. Where they do, one only sees colonial history being taught, and nothing about contemporary history. We need to document our history to provide the basis for learning how to build our future.

E is for education. Though Nigeria has education, there is a disconnect between what we have and what we really need.

D stands for democracy. We run by far the most expensive democracy in the world, where lawmakers are earning, indisputably, more than the U.S. president. Our democracy has become a huge drainpipe, more problem than it solves.

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Nigerians prepare for another budget imbroglio

Nigerians prepare for another budget imbroglio

The country appears set for another budget showdown as the executive and the legislature resume their long standing disagreement over budget figures. Finance minister, Olusegun Aganga said last week that the 2011 appropriation bill passed by the Senate is not “implementable” due to the alterations carried out by the lawmakers.

The Senate last week passed a budget of N4.972 trillion, N752 billion higher than the initial figure of N4.22 trillion submitted by President Goodluck Jonathan to a joint session of the National Assembly in December. The appropriation passed by the Senate was predicated on a benchmark of $75 per barrel of crude up from the $64.7 projected by the executive and a crude oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day.

The National Assembly jacked up its allocations for capital and recurrent expenditure by 52.2 percent from N111.24 billion to N232.74 billion, while reducing amount earmarked for debt servicing from N542.3 billion to N445.09 billion.

Mr Aganga recently expressed concern over the volume of deficit and the level of borrowing that this would trigger.

“The 2011 budget is supposed to signal the beginning of fiscal consolidation, but we now have another expansionary budget which is unimplementable. If we are to build our economy on a solid foundation and avoid the boom and burst of the past, it is critical that we embrace discipline in the way we manage public finances. We cannot continue like this,” the minister said.

“If you adopt pro-cyclical fiscal policies then you go into boom and burst all the time so you need to have consistent robust fiscal policies that are relevant to your economy. The level of recurrent expenditure is unsustainable. Unless we deal with that we cannot deal with the problem of allocation to capital projects.” He said a huge budget deficit would translate to government resorting to domestic borrowing, a situation which experts say would further crowd out the private sector from the bond market. “It is one of the reasons why we say we have to look at it again. We need to reduce borrowing and we need to improve the quality and efficiency of spending,” he said.

However, while the minister was lamenting the workability of the budget, the National Assembly is insisting that the budget should be implemented the way it has been passed. Chairman, House of Representatives Committee on Finance, John Enoh, was quoted as saying that no budget that was unimplementable provided the government had the political will and its agencies the requisite capacity to implement its provisions.

“If Aganga is talking about the Federal Government implementing the budget 100 percent, then he may have a point. But which of the budgets passed in the last 10 years has been fully implemented by the executive? ,” he was quoted to have said.

Private sector joins the fray

While the battle rages, the organised private sector has taken sides, on the ground that the economy has been at the receiving end of poorly crafted budgets over the years. Frank Nweke, director general of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group said it was no longer acceptable for the national assembly to stifle the other sectors of the economy.

“This is not acceptable. We recognise that the private sector must speak up. If it is necessary to institute legal action to seek interpretation of the constitution of this country as to who has legal powers to appropriate fund and whether the legislature has the power to distort the budget as it does each year, it is something that we are prepared to take up,” he further said.

He is not alone on this as the Institute of Directors (IoD) of Nigeria is also prepared to challenge the issue in the court. Chike Nwanze, president of the Institute said it was time the legislators begin to put the entire country into consideration before tinkering with the budget. “If we have to institute legal action, we are ready to consider that option,” Mr Nwanze said.

Opeyemi Agbaje, lawyer and senior consultant at Resources and Trust Company Limited, a strategy and business advisory firm said it was better for the executive to have this confrontation with the National Assembly once and for all. “Under Obasanjo, this was a recurring problem but in the end Obasanjo chose to implement only those portions of the budget he found acceptable. Yar’adua basically always allowed the NASS to have its way, leading to huge fiscal expansion between 2007 and 2010.” According to him, the constitution allows the previous year’s recurrent budget to operate for six months (till June 2011) so that the operations of government can continue in the event of non-passage of the budget. “It may also be useful if the Supreme Court resolves the legal duties and roles of the executive vis-a-vis the legislature once and for all. Unfortunately the impasse will hold up capital expenditure proposals contained in the budget,” he said.

Constitutional crisis

However, Mr Aganga expressed fear about the ambiguity of certain aspects of the constitution. “We expect to have a dialogue because we all have to work together and usually it is resolved but the constitution in some areas is not clear on the roles and powers of the executive and legislature on this. If the executive decides not to sign the budget, then after 30 days, the legislature can actually hold a resolution and pass it. That is the constitution we have today.” With elections underway, deliberations on the budget may not hold under the current house leadership. A new legislative session may not commence until well after the swearing in on May 29. Under the current scenario, only a political solution may resolve this imminent logjam. What then is the way out?

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Analysis of performance of banks in 2010

Analysis of performance of banks in 2010

A few more banks have released their 2010 year end results, some of which have fallen below the expectation of industry watchers. However, the trend that was common among the institutions was the drop in earnings, due largely to the reduction in lending. Through a mixture of cost-cutting strategies and efficiency in deploying assets, most of the firms still posted impressive profits.

Diamond Bank posted a profit-before-tax of N4.227 billion from a loss of N12.4 billion in 2009, while profit after tax rose to N1.33 billion from a loss of N8.17 billion in 2009.

However, gross earnings were down 16 percent to N91 billion for the 12 months period ended 31 December, 2010 (from N108 billion, 12 month period ended 31 December 2009). Net interest income was also down 16 percent to N49.0 billion (from N42.2 billion in 2009).

The bank’s total assets down 9 percent to N594.8billion (from N650.4 billion in 2009), total loans to customers down 5 percent toN312.2 billion (from N329.8 billion in 2009), while customer deposits were down by 15 percent N412.0 billion (from N482.0 billion in 2009).

‘Nightmarish’ performance

Some finance experts have however, expressed disappointment at the bank’s figures, saying it is “much worse than expected.”

“This result pales substantially when stacked against our forecasts. Although gross earnings were 7.7 percent ahead of our forecast of N84.5 billion, both Profit Before Tax (PBT) and Profit After Tax (PAT) overwhelmingly under performed our forecasts of N10.2 billion and N7.1 billion by 53.3 percent and 81.2 percent respectively. We are constrained to call this a really poor bottom line performance. The bank, expectably, did not propose any corporate actions in the wake of what is a nightmarish performance,” Afrinvest, a finance firm, said.

Industry watchers say the bank might have had to take a substantially larger impairment in the form of provision for bad loans, given the really poor margins on display as they do not expect such a ‘massive’ deterioration in operating margins.

The bank’s officials declined to speak on the figures when contacted by our reporter, saying its reaction would be based on a statement it issued on Tuesday.

In the statement, Uzoma Dozie, ED Corporate Banking, Diamond Bank, said: “In compliance with our enhanced risk management policies, the Corporate Banking unit continued to unwind positions carried over from the economic slowdown in 2009. This has enhanced liquidity and reduced NPLs. Provisions are starting to come back to normal levels as the economy returns to its pre-2008 growth path. This bodes well for the unit as we take up new opportunities arising from telecoms and government infrastructure spending in 2011.”

Robust credit growth

In a similar industry move, First City Monument Bank said its pre-tax profit rose to N9.02 billion in 2010 from N856.6 million the previous year, and declared a N0.35 dividend per share while gross earnings rose to N62.67 billion from 35.79 billion naira in 2009, according to a Reuters report.

“In our view, a good set of results from FCMB, with the tax benefit being the single reason for our earnings estimate miss. The 2010 NIM (net interest margin) squeeze (which is the difference between interest income and interest expense as a percentage of assets reflects broader sector trends, while robust credit growth and cost control are encouraging, we think. It is also good to see asset quality stabilising” Renaissance Capital, an investment bank, said.

Ecobank Transnational Inc. (ETI) the parent company of the pan-African banking group also made its report for the year ended 31st December 2010 public last week.

The bank’s report showed a 4.6 percent decline in gross earnings to $1.1bn from the $1.2bn recorded in 2009. Profit before tax (PBT) surged by 67.3 percent to $169.0m from $101.1m, while profit after tax (PAT) more than doubled to $131.8m, 104.1 percent higher than the $64.6m posted in 2009.

“Gross Earnings fell 9.7 percent short of our projected $1.3bn, while both PBT and PAT fell short of our forecasts of $170.6m and $131.9m by 0.9 percent and 0.1 percent respectively. This impressive performance is in line with expectations, as we anticipated a substantial reduction in its cost of risk due to the debt clean-up activities of AMCON on its Nigerian subsidiary that accounted for as much as 70.0 percent ($98.0m) of the 24.0 percent increase to $140.0m in group provisions.” Afrinvest said.

Stanbic IBTC’s gross earnings in its 2010 year end report declined by 5.1 percent (from N59.8 billion to N56.7 billion), while PBT and PAT grew by 30.8 percent (from N10.3 billion to N13.5 billion) and 16.2 percent (from N8.1billion to N9.5 billion) respectively, when measured against the corresponding period in 2009.

On this, Afrinvest stated that the bank’s gross earnings decline could be attributed to its aggressive growth play on the Nigerian market that may have seen it give up some yield on interest bearing assets.

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ON WATCH: Electoral violence

ON WATCH: Electoral violence

The youth of Nigeria are too often the tools of
those who seek power and this becomes increasingly obvious as we
approach the elections. These youth are led with false promises and
hopes for a future that will improve their lives and their families’.
Greasing the wheels of violence with a little money to enslave these
youth to the power lust of their godfathers is akin to throwing grain
on the ground to feed chickens.

If the candidates whom these youth support are
elected, then we can expect these same youth to be cut loose after the
elections for their masters have no further use of them. Many of these
youth will be armed, disillusioned and then continue down the road that
leads to a life of crime and violence.

In this context we are seeing more groups than
ever before urging the public to shun violence in the run-up to the
elections. The National Association of Nigeria Students, the Christian
Association of Nigeria and Jama’atu Nasir Islam have each joined the
chorus of public bodies calling on youth not to join in any violent
actions or be unwitting tools of corrupt politicians.

The Sultan of Sokoto has called on all Muslims toa
be on guard against politicians seeking to mislead them. “We should
respect each other in Nigeria. No one should infringe on the religious
rights of the other, in the spirit of unity and respect for one
another.”

Amidst these calls against violence comes what I
can only describe as a thoughtless, foolish and attention-seeking
statement by a person claiming to be a pastor. A “pastor” of a church
in Enugu has declared to reporters that God has told him the elections
will be “bloody”. I do not dismiss the position that God may choose to
interact with us in a variety of ways and provide direction for our
daily lives, nor that we may seek His intervention. But this sort of
comment from the Enugu pastor must be dismissed for the reckless and
misleading statement that it is. It is an encouragement to violence
that it would have been prudent not to have reported.

The leaders of the major Christian denominations
are disappointingly invisible when it comes to dealing with this sort
of situation. In fact, with so many bodies publicly calling for a
peaceful election process and urging youth to shun violence, these same
church leaders are almost undetectable. They must take a lead in such
debate. The Sultan of Sokoto provides an example that the leaders of
the Christian church might care to note.

My comments are not intended to ignore the
potential for violence. Rather they are a plea not to overestimate or
inflate the potential for unrest and election related conflict.

This point was made this week by the National
Security Adviser (NSA) Owoye Azazi, a retired General, when, in a clear
and welcome break with past security practices, he invited local and
international media to a very full and frank security briefing in which
he underscored the need for collaboration between the media and
security agencies to ensure free, fair and credible elections. “The
media have frequently reported pre-election activities in bad light
leading to unnecessary violence and reprisals by the electorates who
feel that their political sympathy has been threatened,” he said.

The NSA acknowledged that, although the conduct of
the elections next week will be an improvement over previous elections,
the nation should strive to ensure that future elections “will even be
better”. “We have a responsibility to show all Nigerians and the
international community that we are capable of conducting free, fair
and credible elections in a secure environment,” he said.

But what weight do we give to the seeming resurgence of MEND and the ongoing even if sporadic attacks of Boko Haram?

The MEND public profile which operates through
media releases lacks the credibility it enjoyed particularly in 2008
and 2009, not least because there are multiple email addresses used by
persons claiming to be the MEND spokesperson. This lack of public
credibility causes the group to try to mount operations to prove that
they continue to exist as a viable militant group capable of causing
destruction and therefore should be taken seriously. But the community
support that MEND enjoyed in past years is now noticeably lacking. The
past MEND agenda of agitating for an improved quality of life for Niger
Deltans seems to have faded. Maybe it will be unnecessary if the next
government aggressively addresses deficiencies in the Niger Delta.

Boko Haram may have its gripes about a secular
government but it is substantially a different dimension of violence
that is not election related and must be addressed in a manner
different to that which seeks to curb political godfathers and their
aspirants recruiting youth to violence for the purpose of influencing
the elections.

The seed of MEND was sown by politicians seeking to retain power by
recruiting Nigeria’s youth to violent behaviour. Every effort must be
made to stand against such action that perverts the youths, the
electoral process and ultimately the nation.

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SECTION 39: ‘De yoot’ vote

SECTION 39: ‘De yoot’ vote

As we wait for the
final results of the first round of voting in our general election
cycle, there’s one trend I’m looking out for.

No, not whether –
if the Peoples Democratic Party returns the majority of legislators
again – that automatically means that their presidential candidate,
Goodluck Jonathan, is going to win. No serious contestant for executive
office (and after he has invested so much of our time, money and other
resources towards being elected, I think we can agree that Jonathan is
a serious candidate) ought to have their own electoral fortunes tied to
a group held in such thorough disregard as the nation’s legislators.

Even their own
party is anxious to get rid of them, having given its flag to only a
third of legislators to return to the National Assembly in June 2011.
That’s an improvement on the 80 per cent that it sacked in 2007, but if
this time the electorate happens to apply a ‘three strikes’ rule and,
deciding that after three attempts (in 1999, 2003 and 2007) that they
really can’t trust the PDP to pick good lawmakers, turn to other
parties to populate the Senate and House of Representatives, it won’t
necessarily mean that they won’t vote for the PDP’s presidential
candidate.

It’s also entirely
possible – even though doing the same thing time after time and
expecting a different result is the classic definition of madness –
that the electorate will again choose PDP candidates, perhaps consoling
themselves that the problem isn’t with the party, but with the people
it presented in past elections.

No, the trend I’ll
be watching for is whether one group that has been loud about its
entitlement (but short on everything else) will have any discernible
impact on the vote. ‘De yoot’ (not to be confused with their English
counterparts, ‘va yoof’) were on the lips of every candidate this
election. Perhaps, having seen what young people claim as their
achievement in the ‘Arab Spring’, our politicians thought that they had
better appear deeply concerned about the condition of our own ‘yoot’.

Even if they
hadn’t, ‘de yoot’ themselves have been insisting that since they are
over 60 per cent of the population, they are entitled. The National
Population Commission classifies only those between 18 and 24 as youth,
but assuming that they are including the under 18s: the 2006 Census
puts the 0-24 years population at 64 per cent of the total.

That’s a bigger
percentage than, for example, Nigerian women, who scraped in with an
anomalous 49.2 per cent of the total population, but who, thanks to the
Beijing Declaration and Platform of action, are supposed to have 35 per
cent of all appointments.

What is more, Mr.
President himself (at the end of a ‘debate’ in which the only woman
participating was the timekeeper whom he resolutely ignored) has
undertaken to keep the promise made at Beijing in 1995. True, he didn’t
explain what stopped him from achieving 35 per cent in the year that
he’s been in power so far, but the all-male panel didn’t ask him.

And his Congress
for Progressive Change challenger, whose military dictatorship started
the ball rolling by insisting that each state must appoint at least one
woman as a commissioner, wasn’t there to trumpet his own credentials …

In an election
when even middle-aged ‘uncles’ of 50 are touting themselves as ‘de yoot
candidate’, it isn’t surprising that young people tried to make
themselves a big story in the ongoing elections. Though it wasn’t quite
clear what they felt their numbers entitled them to.

If as long ago as
1991, the Population Commission recorded that 59 per cent of household
members searching for work were the children of the heads of those
households, the woeful failings in education and employment that have
characterised the intervening 20 years must be at least as worrying to
their parents as they are to ‘de yoot’.

Had numbers alone
justified special recognition, the status of the ‘giant of Africa’ with
its claim to house one fifth of the world’s black population ought to
reflect that. But it doesn’t. Worse still for ‘de yoot’, if the group
classified by the NPC as ‘children’ – the under-18s – are stripped
away, they shrink back to a much less impressive 13 per cent, with the
remaining 51 per cent left to whistle Eddie Cochran’s old Summertime
Blues song: ‘I’d like to help you son, but you’re too young to vote’.

Still, de yoot’s
insistence on their own importance seems to have won at least one
convert: at the end of last month an old-timer who started his own
(unsuccessful) campaign with the flat assertion that young people are
not qualified to run Nigeria, apparently discovered that they are
exactly what the country needs. But will the vote reflect that?

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DEEPENING DEMOCRACY: The day after

DEEPENING DEMOCRACY: The day after

In September 2010, John Campbell, the former
United States Ambassador to Nigeria, published a sensational article in
Foreign Affairs about the dire consequences of the elections failing.
He argued that “Logistical preparations for the 2011 elections have not
started. There is no voters roll, and despite the president’s signing
of an electoral reform bill, some of these reforms remain unimplemented
four months before the election. The election therefore will almost
certainly lack legitimacy, especially in the eyes of the losers. This
will further drive the country to the brink, especially if winners and
losers are defined by their religious and ethnic backgrounds.” The
response of most Nigerian commentators to Campbell was that the
elections would not be as bad as predicted and that Attahiru Jega and
his team have the capacity to organise an election that is
significantly better than what we have had previously. The day after,
what is our assessment of the elections that took place yesterday? The
three key words that have been repeated over and over again in relation
to the elections are free, fair and credible.

Writing a day before the elections, my feeling is
that in most parts of the country, the elections would be relatively
free. That is to say, most people would be able to go to their polling
unit and cast their vote without impediment. The situation of 2007 in
which, in so many states, voting did not take place and yet results
were declared, is most unlikely to happen. Nigeria, I believe, is on
the path to reclaiming the franchise for its citizens.

The fairness of the elections is maybe the most
problematic element. Fair elections are characterised by a level
playing field for all contestants. It has been clear that candidate
Goodluck Jonathan has had enormous resources to engage in a major media
blitz and run the most elaborate road show Nigeria has ever seen.
Obasanjo’s campaign, which was supported massively by resources raised
for the campaign by “Corporate Nigeria” pales into insignificance
compared to Jonathan’s. The President needs to explain to Nigerians,
the financial sources that are supporting his ongoing campaign.

The credibility of the elections is what we shall
be assessing as from today. In so doing, we are interested in knowing
whether the outcome of the various elections would correspond to the
choices made by a majority of Nigerians. In other words, has the
special procedure developed for the elections produced the desired
result?

To discourage electoral fraud, INEC has developed
a procedure in which accreditation takes place in the morning and
voting in the afternoon. Voters are allowed to stay at the polling
centres to observe the counting and posting of results. Civil society
has encouraged voters to stay, observe the counting, photograph the
results with their cell phones and share the results with their
neighbours to create widespread awareness of polling centre results. It
is unfortunate that the National Security Adviser to the President came
out openly to challenge the procedure. The constitution is clear that
the procedure for voting is determined by INEC. He should have played
the role of a responsible citizen, supporting the decision of the organ
that is constitutionally empowered to act.

Observers and political party agents have been
encouraged to follow the results to the ward, local government and all
other levels of collation of results, so that people know that the
results announced reflect actual results counted at the polling
stations. The day after is the time for reflections and assessment on
the use of the special procedure.

It has been clear since 2003 that the integrity of
Nigeria’s elections would only improve if more and more citizens
protect their mandate. The outcome of this election would depend on
Nigerians taking the opportunity offered by the special procedure to
defend their mandate. This is the path to preventing the fall over the
precipice that Campbell has spoken about.

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Lessons from the Kokomaster

Lessons from the Kokomaster

So, about a month
or two ago, a coalition of musicians led by D’banj, who had sung for
the Goodluck Jonathan campaign; and Psquare, who had sung for the
Ibrahim Babangida campaign; gathered the press to a briefing in Ikeja,
Lagos and announced that they were committed to a series of free
rallies across the geopolitical zones of Nigeria to encourage young
people to register and vote.

Something wasn’t
quite right about it – and not just because, as someone who has been
part of civil society working on elections and youth participation over
the past year, the leading lights for this sudden campaign had been the
most reluctant to engage in any non-partisan process to get young
Nigerians involved.

The response across
social networks shared my surprise when the news hit. “We know those
who will do free shows,” one popular name tweeted. “And they have not
yet been born.”

I agreed – a
little. We know those who can do free shows – and they have been born,
they just weren’t the guys who were now involved in this free show. And
conspiracy theorists soon emerged – who swore that the presidential
candidate with the deepest pocket was using this supposedly
non-partisan platform to drive a deeply partisan agenda.

Nothing was heard about the concerts for weeks after.

In that period, a
group of young people (including me, for purposes of full disclosure)
began to work on the country’s first youth-centred political debate –
fixed for March 25. A debate that President Jonathan (you know, the big
pocket candidate) and Muhammadu Buhari had telegraphed a refusal to
attend.

Then, suddenly, on
the eve of the now famous NN24 national presidential debate, whispers
turned to frenzy: D’banj was going to be interviewing President
Jonathan on Silverbird Television. There’s no need to recount the
‘Dbanjing’ (a new word for nodding mumu-ly) that followed, or the
opprobrium that attended D’banj immediately after the interview – as
well as his cohort and boss, Don Jazzy, who made the mistake of trying
to defend the action on Twitter, against a band of angry young people.

As it is, and
obviously as a post-interview fallout, D’banj has not been seen
anywhere near the president. He is said to now have security due to
threats to his life, and his credibility as a youth advocate is
terribly impaired.

What was the
annoyance? Yes, there were some who would get angry anyway just because
D’banj exercised his constitutional right to endorse Mr. Jonathan – a
point which is really, er, pointless, as there is absolutely nothing so
terrible about the Jonathan candidacy that makes it impossible for him
to have true believers.

The anger was,
first, that D’banj positioned himself – wrongly and inappropriately –
as representing the youth. That was weird. Of course, he was buoyed by
his UN Youth ambassadorship, his The Future Awards for Young Person of
the Year and other such laurels, which he mentioned disingenuously
during the interview. But worse for him, was the advertorial that
followed – announcing one of those suspicious “It’s our time” free
concerts, to hold on the same day as the youth debate! Ah, the danger
of free shows.

The battle line was
drawn. Did D’banj and his sponsors really think young people are so
vacuous that they would choose music over a conversation about their
future?

There and then the concert’s buzz died.

Young celebrities
should be paying attention. Last year, when a host of singers and
actors began to gyrate for the candidates, while they denied that money
change hands, antennae were raised. But, of course, it is alright to
endorse a candidate or even do your job as a singer by entertaining at
his event.

The problem is when you get high on your own supply.

D’banj will yet
recover from this – but the elasticity of that recovery will lie in
whether this kind of, well, mistake becomes a pattern with him or
whether it is a one-off; a mistake to which he is entitled.

The choice he makes
will determine if his image goes the way of Onyeka Onwenu – who has now
sung for and ‘endorsed’ three consecutive PDP presidents, in addition
to that pesky concert for Sani Abacha in 1996 – or whether he will
build a powerful, activist brand, like his colleagues Banky W (who
shunned the concert) and MI, (who promptly returned the performance
fee, according to reports).

You see, folks might like it when you sing about the koko, but when push comes to shove, they know what the real koko is.

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AH-HAA: School elections

AH-HAA: School elections

Are you
election-weary? Welcome to the club; you are in excellent company!
Surely, by now, you will have voted for your new (perhaps improved?)
members of the National Assembly? How did it go in your neighbourhood?
Did all the relevant agencies involved in the process keep faith with
all those clichéd promises we got? Of course, as the days roll by, we
will learn about the good, the bad, the absurd and the totally daft!
One can’t wait for the gist to start rolling in.

After all that has
been said and done by every candidate in these elections, one really
wonders if they ALL truly believed that they would win. And one is only
trying to be realistic here. The whole process is not as
straightforward as the election for prefect you participated in at
school; you each wrote the name of the person you wanted as prefect on
a piece of paper and placed it in a box or school beret (as the case
may be).

The names were then
compiled from the ‘ballot’ papers and the person whose name cropped up
the most was elected. Sounds so simple; you then wonder why, with a
process so straightforward, we insist on complicating matters.

If any school today
wants a particular person elected as prefect, who may not be the most
popular kid in school, they have enough styles to choose from. The
students may want a non-conformist prefect who will not succumb to the
whims of the school’s management. So the first thing is for the school
to make sure that the popular kid can never, will never and does not,
under any circumstances whatsoever, emerge as a prefect, so that there
will be no one voting for him. How? Simple!

What are the things
the popular kid is good at? Outlaw them; and make ONLY those things he
is bad at, the criteria for participating in the election. And make
these rules with a straight face, never minding how the perceived
unfairness and alleged injustice is viewed by anyone in the school.

There are many
reasons to proffer: “we are the owners of our school and we reserve the
right to decide who will fly the flag of the school. If anyone does not
like our criteria for deciding who is eligible to be a prefect, they
can go to another school and try their luck there. After all, where
were they when we were struggling to build the school to this level,
for them to just come from nowhere and want to be prefect, just like
that?”

Push it further:
“we are the owners of our school and we know the dream of our founding
fathers. We have decided that zoning exists in our school; as a result,
Master/Miss Popularity is hereby declared ineligible because he/she
comes from the wrong zone. It is important that ALL our students feel a
sense of belonging in this school to enhance the unity of our nation
from these formative years; they must feel that it is possible for
their own ethnic group to eventually become prefect one day. If anyone
does not like our zoning policy, they can move to another school that
does not zone students’ leadership positions, please!”

The idea is to work
from answer to question, and do it legally. Follow due process, then
you have no problem. You can add to and/or subtract from the criteria
at will; you own your school, so who is to stop you?

If Miss Popularity
has long hair, outlaw long hair as discriminating against female
students who are ‘blessed’ with short, thin, scanty or just bad hair;
if Master Popularity is athletic, outlaw ‘hunks’ as discriminating
against nerds. In fact, insist on ‘seriousness’, not sports, as the
MAIN consideration of the school’s electoral panel.

Is Miss Popularity
pretty? Outlaw beauty because it discriminates against those not
considered beautiful! Is the popular guy handsome? Outlaw good looks,
and justify it on the ground that not all world leaders are handsome
anyway; after all, handsomeness or beauty is no guarantee of a person’s
performance.

Remember you are
not saying anything new; you and everybody else have heard it all
before! Be prepared, however, for troublesome parents who know too
much. Call their bluff and tell them to meet you in court; or quickly
appoint their popular kid to a position with a great title: “Swagger
Prefect” in charge of all males getting the school swagger right or
“Beauty Prefect” in charge of all females aspiring to some level of
beauty. LOL!

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