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FINANCIAL MATTERS: An agenda for the next term

FINANCIAL MATTERS: An agenda for the next term

Now that we have
chosen our president for the next four years, we will do well to think
through what we can expect to feature on his to-do list, every day,
until this stage is reached again at the start of the next election
cycle. Ordinarily, it would help to start with the different planks on
the party platform of our preferred candidate. Trouble is, even when
these were bruited about on the campaign trail, they did not amount to
much. Even as sound bites, these policy platforms always sounded
hollow. Apparently, all the candidates were sure that no section of the
electorate was going to interrogate their manifestoes (and the numbers
behind them) too seriously.

Still, there are
reasons why any election pledge in this country should be taken with a
liberal dollop of salt. Across sectors, the economy’s need is so
substantial and so fundamental. Especially with infrastructure, where
promises to remedy the dearth must contend with the 48 months lag
between the contract award ceremonies and when the projects come on
stream. In the absence of low-intensity, high-impact solutions, it thus
means that any genuine investment today, will only begin to yield
fruits after the first four-year term. This is one of the more perverse
incentives of representative democracy: it forces executive focus on
near-term upside gains with medium-term downside consequences.

This does not,
however, obviate the need for such investment, or the equally important
need for the incoming government to deliver on a few low-hanging
fruits. The Petroleum Industry and Nigerian Sovereign Investment
Authority bills are two versions of the latter type of investment.
Because of the unconscionable delay in passing the former bill,
investment in the upstream sector of the oil and gas industry has
tailed off considerably. Desirable though it might be to cap the oil
wells as part of a radical response to the failure of our fiscal
federalism, we cannot run away from the size of hydrocarbon export
revenues’ contribution to the national budget.

Prompt passage of
the bill is also consistent with acknowledging what the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) describes in its latest comments on the global
economy, as “long implementation lags for discovery, exploration, and
capital investment in minerals industries”. In addition, there are
significant gains to be had in the current environment. The signals
from current elevated market prices for crude oil would seem to
indicate that, along with the pressures from new demand from newly
industrialising economies in Asia, there have been significant
“downshifts in trend (crude oil) supply growth”.

Moreover,
macroeconomic policy has fallen behind the curve over the last two
years. Despite strong terms-of-trade gains, as commodity prices firmed,
we have not accumulated reserves as rapidly as would have been
expected. Instead, the central bank has run down these inflows in
support of an inflexible exchange rate regime. Has this moderation of
domestic exchange rate movement been beneficial to strengthening
domestic demand? Another question touched by the domestic demand worry
is, “What is holding back private investment in this economy?” Soft
final domestic demand is one answer. But there’s another argument. If
our policy is to support the growth of private investment, shouldn’t it
aim to boost net capital formation within the economy, while reducing
the domestic cost of doing business?

The needed
structural reforms go further than this though. The central bank’s
quasi-fiscal interventions in the economy in the last two years have
been anomalous. Returning the funds on to the public balance sheet is
essential for fiscal transparency and in order to clean up the balance
sheet of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The trouble with this
course of action is that the public debt profile is rising. Adding
debits from the CBN’s balance sheet would further reduce government’s
room for fiscal manoeuvre. Nonetheless, fiscal consolidation is key to
the economy’s medium-term fiscal outlook. Rising inflation is one (but
scarcely the only) reason. Fiscal support was necessary to keep the
banks from going under and to a lesser extent to keep domestic demand
ticking away despite second-round pressures from the global financial
and economic crisis.

But the banks have begun to post healthy results. And it is doubtful
(because of the infrastructure constraints) that domestic demand did
indeed respond to the fiscal stimulus. Thus, it is important for a
positive medium-term fiscal outlook to return immediately to the oil
price-based fiscal policy rule!

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Oyo governor steals show at appeal court

Oyo governor steals show at appeal court

The Oyo State
governor, Adebayo Alao-Akala, and his other colleagues fielded as
candidates of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) had their day at the
Appeal Court in Ibadan on Tuesday as two rulings of the court were made
in their favour.

The appellate court
threw out an application requesting a shorter timeframe within which
the involved parties could file their briefs. This would have allowed
an accelerated hearing of the suit against their emergence as the
party’s candidates for elections in Oyo.

Wole Oyelese, Lekan
Balogun, Azeem Gbolarumi and 34 others filed the suit to appeal against
the decision of Jonathan Sharkharo of the Federal High Court in Ibadan
to set aside his earlier interim order restraining the Independent
National Electoral Commission and the PDP from recognizing Mr
Alao-Akala and others as the party’s candidates.

Also the court
granted the prayers of Lateef Fagbemi, lawyer to Dejo Afolabi, the
state PDP chairman, for the amendment of the records of proceeding and
permission to allow the use of documents brought by him as complements
to the record of the Federal Court, in order to adequately guide the
appellate court in its proceedings.

Mr Fagbemi had, at
the last sitting, sought the relief of the court to allow him to
include exhibits B and C, which comprise his jottings and newspaper
cuttings, respectively, on what transpired at the lower court, to
augment the ‘incomplete’ record from the lower court.

New records acceptable

The three-man
panel, comprising Stanley Alagoa, Sidi Bage and Modupe Fasanmi, ruled
that the additional records are important and would be helpful in the
course of the proceedings.

However, Mr Alagoa,
the presiding judge, refused to allow the inclusion of photocopies of
some national dailies as part of the court records, saying they were
neither certified as genuine copies nor the original versions of the
papers.

The court also
overruled an objection raised by Oluwarotimi Akeredolu (SAN), lead
counsel to the aggrieved PDP member, that Mr Fagbemi should not have
been the one to file the application for amending the court’s records
since his client had withdrawn from the case at the lower court and has
been excused ever since. The court said the lawyer has the right to
present the additional record because he was a party to the original
suit.

“The applicants are challenging the completeness of the records of
the court. What he sought to be amending is simply an order to add
exhibits B and C and the leave is hereby granted to use exhibits B and
C as supplementary records,” Mr Alagoa said.

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Civil society groups allege manipulation of results

Civil society groups allege manipulation of results

A coalition of
civil society organisations monitoring the 2011 general elections has
alleged that the presidential election results in about 12 states may
have been doctored. The coalition at a press conference in Abuja on
Tuesday called on the Independent National Electoral Commission’s
(INEC) to investigate the allegation.

Clement Nwankwo,
the executive director of Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre (PLAC)
speaking on behalf of the coalition, Civil Society Election Situation
Room, commended Nigerians for their determination in voting and
protecting their votes in the presidential election.

Mr Nwankwo,
however, said that the collation process seems to have been the weakest
link in the election management process. “INEC appears to have been
ineffective in its oversight function as far as monitoring and
controlling the collation process was concerned. This state of affairs
raised doubts about the authenticity of some of the figures arising
from this process.” “Of particular note were the exceptionally high
turnout figures in Abia (77%), Akwa Ibom (75%), Bayelsa (85%), Bauchi
(63%), Cross River (63%), Delta (68%), Edo (74%), Enugu (62%), Kaduna
(65%), Imo (84%), Plateau (62%) and Rivers (76%) states. This was
against the national average of 53%. Such a high turnout is quite
atypical of Nigerian elections and we call on INEC to rigorously
investigate the authenticity of these figures.”

Some irregularities

Furthermore, he
said the group observers also noted a number of irregularities. “One
area of concern was significant instances of underage voting in Bauchi,
Gombe, Kaduna, Kano, Plateau, Nasarawa and Taraba States. In
particular, Bajoga, Funakaya Local Government Area in Gombe State saw
irate youths attempting to lynch the Resident Electoral Commissioner –
along with a number of journalists – who sought to enforce the
prohibition against underage voting.” He added that the contestants,
their parties and supporters have a corresponding duty to respect the
final results. “Any complaints at this stage should be channelled
through the appropriate election result verification and dispute
resolution processes. The Civil Society Election Situation Room
unequivocally condemns in the strongest terms the violence and killings
which have attended the announcement of the results.”

The Situation Room
of the coalition is made up of groups such as Action Aid Nigeria,
Transition Monitoring Group, Centre for Democracy and Development,
Justice Development and Peace Commission, Policy and Legal Advocacy
Centre, CLEEN Foundation, among others.

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Former MEND leaders blame politicians for election violence

Former MEND leaders blame politicians for election violence

Some former
warlords of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)
yesterday held an emergency meeting following the outbreak of riots in
some part of the country over the outcome of last Saturday’s
presidential election.

The meeting blamed
what they called “disgruntled politicians and crises-profiteers” for
the crisis, saying the masses of the north are as marginalised as their
counterparts in the southern part of the country. They also promised
not to promote any retaliatory actions in the south-south.

“We condemn, in
very strong terms, the post-election violence being perpetrated and
sponsored in parts of northern Nigeria by disgruntled politicians and
crises-profiteers. We regard the outbreak of violent protests as
uncalled-for, barbaric and very retrogressive,” the group said at the
end of the meeting. “But we dare assert that this sponsored violence
does not in any way mirror or reflect the inner feelings of the
overwhelming majority of the northern masses. The northern masses, just
like their brothers and sisters in the south, particularly the Niger
Delta, are victims of years of misrule under the same persons
orchestrating the post-election violence across the north.”

A source at the
meeting said all former leaders of MEND and some former insurgent
fighters, as well as activists in the Niger Delta, were present at the
meeting held at Gbekebor Creek in Burutu local government area of Delta
State. Other selections of ex-combatants also met in Lagos and Abuja.

Declaration

The former
militants said the northern masses suffered similar deprivation as
their southern compatriots and thronged the voting centres in their
respective wards last Saturday to vote for change. “We are calling on
the international community as well as all men and women of good
conscience to promptly prevail on this political jobbers who are
stoking the embers of war across the north to sheath their swords,
given that the consequences of their action would most likely endanger
the unity of this country,” the group said. “We are piqued that, for
once, an eminently qualified Niger Deltan has won the freest and
fairest presidential election in Nigeria and some crises-profiteers in
the north are sponsoring violent protests. It is so sad and
regrettable.” The group also called on security agencies to secure the
lives and properties of all Nigerians in all parts of the country so as
to avoid the escalation of the post-election crisis.

Declaring their
support for the victory of Mr Jonathan and enjoining other Nigerians to
defend his mandate, the former militants warned that if a Niger Deltan
cannot be accepted to legitimately govern Nigeria, they shall not allow
a non-Niger Deltan to rule over resources found in the area.

“We console those
who have lost loved ones and heard-earned property and pray that the
good Lord who aided the emergence of Goodluck Jonathan as the popularly
elected President of Nigeria will replenish their loses in record
time,” the group said.

The meeting was attended by Government Ekpemupolo (aka Tompolo);
Ateke Tom; Asari Dokubo; Bibopre Ajube (aka Shoot At Sight), Ezekiel
Akpasibewei, Farah Dagogo, Africa Ukparasia, Paul Ezizi; Reuben Wilson,
Joshua Macaiver, Ferdinand Amaibi; Tamunegiyeifori Proby; Kenneth
Opusinji; Kile Selky Torughedi; Bonny Gawei Aboy Muturu; Hendrick
Opukeme; Paul Bebenimibo; Dennis Otuaro; Gomoh Ekiyou; Saibakumo Wilson
Gbaire; Andabafa Opunamah, and Soboma Jackrich.

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Police to oversee governorship elections in Akwa Ibom

Police to oversee governorship elections in Akwa Ibom

To forestall any uprising that may arise during the
gubernatorial elections, the Inspector General (IG) of Police is to
oversee the polls on Tuesday in Akwa Ibom State.

The State Commissioner of Police (CP), Felix Uyanna,
said yesterday in Uyo, that the top police officer, Hafiz Ringim or a
deputy Inspector General was expected in the state for the April 26
elections.

He noted that the presence of the IG or his deputy
in the state was one of the measures taken by the police hierarchy to
ensure that there was a level-playing ground for all political parties
during the elections.

In accepting the apology of the Action Congress of
Nigeria (ACN) governorship candidate in the state, John Akpanudoedehe
on allegations levelled by the ACN that the CP was partisan and that he
be removed, Mr Uyanna mentioned to the ACN governorship flagbearer that
he was free to lay his complaints to the IG or the deputy IG when he
arrived, if he felt the CP was not doing well.

“I want to assure you that in the forthcoming
elections, there will be fair play and justice. I assure you that on
May 26, either the IG or the deputy IG of Police will be here.

“All these things are in an effort to ensure a
level-playing ground. If you feel I am not doing well, you can walk up
to him and lay your complaints,” he said.

Mr. Akpanudoedehe who noted that the electorate
would need to be safe to cast their votes on Tuesday, appealed to the
CP to caution his men against intimidating people at the polling
centres.

He called for a restoration of relationship between
the police and the ACN which he said was lost during the tenure of the
erstwhile CP, Walter Rugbere.

“We are here to ask for a free and fair election.
People need that confidence in the police to go out without being
intimidated by government officials. Our vote must count to bring about
peace and security to this place. We plead with you to guarantee our
security and our votes.

“Let Akwa Ibom people not listen to any speculation that I have
withdrawn from the race. How can a winning governor withdraw?” he asked.

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Poor performance shocks ANPP vice presidential candidate

Poor performance shocks ANPP vice presidential candidate

The vice
presidential candidate of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) in last
Saturday’s presidential election, John Odigie-Oyegun yesterday
expressed shock at the poor performance of his party in the election,
saying the figure ascribed to it looks unreal.

He, however, said
the party hierarchy will meet next week, after the governorship and
state house of assembly polls to consider its response to the result of
the presidential election.

The ANPP candidate,
Ibrahim Shekarau, came a distant fourth position in the election with a
total score of 917,012 votes, according to the result announced by the
Independent National Electoral Commission on Monday.

President Goodluck
Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) polled 22,469,484;
Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change, 12,214,853;
and Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria, 2,790,978.

But Mr Oyegun, in
an interview, said the ANPP’s poor outing could not be divorced from
text messages and misinformation sent out by some unknown persons about
24 hours before the poll.

He explained that
the message specifically stated that some candidates had withdrawn from
the presidential contest to pave way for others, adding that even some
PDP members were involved in it.

“We still don’t
understand. I was surprised about the figure we got. But I think it can
also be attributed to text messages going round before the election
that some candidates were no longer running,” he said. “In fact, the
night before, the messages were going round that everybody must vote
for a particular candidate. I am not guessing. It was what I heard,
myself. That changed the picture of the whole thing and the support for
us just collapsed. So, the whole thing looks unreal, uncanny to me.”

No decision on result

Asked if the party
would have got more votes if the alleged messages were not sent out, Mr
Oyegun said, “Oh naturally! Of course!”

The vice
presidential candidate, who could not say exactly if the ANPP would
challenge the result of the presidential contest in court, said the
party’s national leadership will meet next week to study the conduct
and result of the election before taking a stand.

“We’ve not got to that stage (of going to the court),” he said.
“We’ve to know exactly what happened. We’ll meet Tuesday next week
after the governorship election to assess the total situation, that is,
if the situation in the country will allow for the next election. We
need explanations and I hope we will get to the bottom of it.”

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Adamawa governor sacks council boss

Adamawa governor sacks council boss

The Adamawa State
government has sacked the chairman of Michika Local Government Area of
the state, Steven Nuhu. According to a release signed by the secretary
to the state government, Kobis Ari Thimnu, Simon Vandu, a retired Air
Force officer, is to take over the administration of the council as the
new sole administrator. The statement directed security agencies in the
state to give the new administration all the necessary support.

Assumption

Although the state
government did not give any reason for the dissolution of the executive
council of the local government, the action may not be unconnected with
the violent protest which broke out in the state by youth protesting
the victory of president Jonathan.

The violence
resulted in wanton destruction of lives and property in the state. It
was particularly bad at Michika, where religious worship areas were
torched and some deaths recorded.

Mr Nuhu has been
engaged in a running battle with Mr Nyako. He had earlier accused the
governor of being behind his inability to pay council employees for
several months when the governor came to Michika to campaign. He said
illegal deductions by the state government of local government
allocations was behind the poor financial state of the local council.

Mr Nuhu is also known to be a supporter of Buba Marwa who is seeking to unseat the governor.

Some of Mr. Nuhu’s supporters claimed his sack is political and had nothing to do with violence in the area.

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Police quiz Labour Party leader in Cross River

Police quiz Labour Party leader in Cross River

For a greater part
of yesterday, the freedom of Theophilus Osim Onyuku, the Cross River
State gubernatorial candidate of the Labour Party (LP) was denied him
as he was holed up at the Atakpa police station in Calabar answering
questions bordering on alleged anti-party activities and his subsequent
suspension from office as the chairman of the party in the state.

Mr .Onyuku, who was
invited by the police last Monday, showed up yesterday morning only to
be detained by the police. He is the embattled state chairman of the
party in Cross River who also won its governorship primary to become
its candidate.

Last week, the
national leadership of the party suspended Onyuku, a psychiatric
medical doctor, for anti-party activities. It also directed him to
vacate the office of chairman of the party and hand over all documents
and property of the party to the vice-chairman, pending investigation
into allegations leveled against him.

Two persons, Onyuku
and Imah Nsa Adegoke, have been parading themselves as the
gubernatorial candidate of LP, with their posters competing for
attention in the state. The duo are jostling to represent the party in
the governorship election coming up next year, following the tenure
elongation granted the incumbent state governor, Liyel Imoke.

Mr Onyuku reacted
swiftly to the purported suspension, saying it had no place in law
since due process was not followed. He also denied involvement in
anti-party activities of any kind, saying the fact that he comes from
the same local council as Mr Imoke does not mean he was working for him.

“The police have
been asking me to explain my level of involvement in purported
anti-party activities. I have told them everything that I know. At no
time did I align with the PDP (People’s Democratic Party) nor work for
Governor Imoke. Those who know me know that I’m an unrepentant critic
of the state government. The allegations against me are absurd and
cannot be proved beyond reasonable doubt. This is a party affair. If
there is any crisis in Labour Party, its chieftains and stalwarts
should be allowed to resolve it themselves. .”

‘Due process candidate’

Mr Onyuku, who
described himself as the authentic candidate of LP for the governorship
election in Cross River State, said he emerged through due process and
challenged any person parading herself as candidate to prove when and
how she got elected as candidate.

His interrogation at the police station attracted the sympathy of other opposition politicians in the state. company.

The police said they invited him based on a petition sent to them
that Mr Onyuku should stop parading himself as the state chairman of LP
because he has been suspended from office over anti-party activities.

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INEC to split polling units with more than 300 voters

INEC to split polling units with more than 300 voters

Polling stations holding more than 300
voters are to be fragmented into smaller voting centres for next week’s
gubernatorial and state house of assembly elections, the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) said yesterday.

Observers have warned that although the
parliamentary and presidential elections held yet remain one of
Nigeria’s fairest, congestion at polling centres across the federation
stands out as a problem requiring immediate attention as other
elections draw near.

At many voting areas, balloting dragged
into the night after material and officials were clearly outsized by
voters’ figures averaging about 1,000.

An earlier directive by the commission
to state resident electoral commissioners that large centres be reduced
to sizeable units was not fully implemented ahead of the presidential
elections last Saturday.

The European Union election monitoring
group said in its assessment of the election that for 633 randomly
observed polling units across the 36 states, only 14% were split as
INEC directed, with the rest having an average of 860 voters.

A spokesperson for the electoral body
said yesterday that any such flouting was “in default”, insisting that
the commission’s policy remains that, amongst its 120,000 polling
units, those averagely more than 300 be split into sub-units for
voting. “That has not changed and the electoral officers have been so
instructed again at a meeting today,” Kayode Idowu, spokesperson for
the chairman, Attahriu Jega, said after Mr Jega reviewed the
presidential elections with the state resident electoral commissioners
in Abuja on Tuesday.

Mr Jega and his team have earned praise
for the elections so far. Still, foreign and local observers have
expressed concerns about a “complicated and multi-tiered” collation
process, inducement of voters and overpopulated stations.

Multiplicity of units

Mr Idowu said the new voting points are not to be confused with the polling units whose creations are only permitted by the law.

Under the new arrangement, voters in a
particular polling unit in excess of 300 are to be assigned fresh
voting points which still come under the original polling unit. “This
does not breach the law,” Mr Idowu said. “For collation purposes, the
voting points come under the same PUs (polling units).” With each
existing polling unit numbering over 1000 registered voters, the
commission said it is aware that the decision is likely to affect
almost all polling units in the country.

The move is certain to escalate cost and the number of personnel
required for the governorship poll, deemed a crucial part of a series
of nationwide polls. The electoral body said the implication was
factored into the planning and that provisions for sufficient materials
and workforce have been made.

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Libya’s pathway to peace

Libya’s pathway to peace

Together with our
NATO allies and coalition partners, the United States, France and
Britain have been united from the start in responding to the crisis in
Libya, and we are united on what needs to happen in order to end it.

Even as we
continue our military operations today to protect civilians in Libya, we
are determined to look to the future. We are convinced that better
times lie ahead for the people of Libya, and a pathway can be forged to
achieve just that.

We must never
forget the reasons why the international community was obliged to act in
the first place. As Libya descended into chaos with Col. Muammar
Gaddafi attacking his own people, the Arab League called for action. The
Libyan opposition called for help. And the people of Libya looked to
the world in their hour of need. In an historic resolution, the United
Nations Security Council authorized all necessary measures to protect
the people of Libya from the attacks upon them. By responding
immediately, our countries, together with an international coalition,
halted the advance of Gaddafi’s forces and prevented the bloodbath that
he had promised to inflict upon the citizens of the besieged city of
Benghazi.

Tens of thousands
of lives have been protected. But the people of Libya are still
suffering terrible horrors at Gaddafi’s hands each and every day. His
rockets and shells rained down on defenceless civilians in Ajdabiya. The
city of Misurata is enduring a medieval siege, as Gaddafi tries to
strangle its population into submission. The evidence of disappearances
and abuses grows daily.

Our duty and our
mandate under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973 is to protect
civilians, and we are doing that. It is not to remove Gaddafi by force.
But it is impossible to imagine a future for Libya with Gaddafi in
power. The International Criminal Court is rightly investigating the
crimes committed against civilians and the grievous violations of
international law. It is unthinkable that someone who has tried to
massacre his own people can play a part in their future government. The
brave citizens of those towns that have held out against forces that
have been mercilessly targeting them would face a fearful vengeance if
the world accepted such an arrangement. It would be an unconscionable
betrayal.

Furthermore, it
would condemn Libya to being not only a pariah state, but a failed state
too. Gaddafi has promised to carry out terrorist attacks against
civilian ships and airliners. And because he has lost the consent of his
people any deal that leaves him in power would lead to further chaos
and lawlessness. We know from bitter experience what that would mean.
Neither Europe, the region, or the world can afford a new safe haven for
extremists.

There is a pathway
to peace that promises new hope for the people of Libya – a future
without Gaddafi that preserves Libya’s integrity and sovereignty, and
restores her economy and the prosperity and security of her people. This
needs to begin with a genuine end to violence, marked by deeds not
words. The regime has to pull back from the cities it is besieging,
including Ajdabiya, Misurata and Zintan, and return to their barracks.
However, so long as Gaddafi is in power, NATO must maintain its
operations so that civilians remain protected and the pressure on the
regime builds. Then a genuine transition from dictatorship to an
inclusive constitutional process can really begin, led by a new
generation of leaders. In order for that transition to succeed, Gaddafi
must go and go for good. At that point, the United Nations and its
members should help the Libyan people as they rebuild where Gaddafi has
destroyed – to repair homes and hospitals, to restore basic utilities,
and to assist Libyans as they develop the institutions to underpin a
prosperous and open society.

This vision for
the future of Libya has the support of a broad coalition of countries,
including many from the Arab world. These countries came together in
London on March 29 and founded a Contact Group which met this week in
Doha to support a solution to the crisis that respects the will of the
Libyan people.

Today, NATO and
our partners are acting in the name of the United Nations with an
unprecedented international legal mandate. But it will be the people of
Libya, not the U.N., who choose their new constitution, elect their new
leaders, and write the next chapter in their history.

Britain, France
and the United States will not rest until the United Nations Security
Council resolutions have been implemented and the Libyan people can
choose their own future.

(Barack Obama is
the 44th president of the United States. David Cameron is prime minister
of Britain and Nicolas Sarkozy is president of France.)

New York Times

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