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Afghanistan.
Bosnia. Haiti. Liberia. Rwanda. Sierra Leone. Southern Sudan, Timor
Leste. Iraq. Although each is different, they have all struggled to
move beyond conflict and fragility to secure development. Paul
Collier’s book The Bottom Billion highlighted their recurrent cycles of
dangers. Not one low income country coping with fragility or conflict
has yet achieved a single Millennium Development Goal.

These countries
stir our shared interests and values. They have called on soldiers and
monies from countries that have then struggled to counter violence that
overflows the borders of fragile states, because conflicts feed on
narcotics, piracy, and gender violence, and leave refugees and broken
infrastructure in their wake. Their territories can become breeding
grounds for far-reaching networks of violent radicals and organized
crime.

Yet as we are now
seeing again in the Middle East and North Africa, violence in the 21st
Century differs from 20th Century patterns of interstate conflict and
methods of addressing them. Stove-piped government agencies have been
ill-suited to cope, even when national interests or values prompt
political leaders to act. To offer some ideas and practical
recommendations, the World Bank Group is releasing a World Development
Report, “Conflict, Security, and Development” that looks across
disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world.

As the Report makes
clear, the old ways won’t work. The overriding objective is to build
legitimate institutions that can provide a sustained level of citizen
security, justice, and jobs. Progress in these core areas, and
coordination among the activities, build a foundation for broader and
better change. At the earliest stages, countries need to restore public
confidence in basic collective action before even rudimentary
institutions can be built or transformed.

A fragile state
cannot restore confidence through government alone. It needs to build
cooperative, “inclusive-enough” coalitions drawing on groups that bring
political legitimacy, financial and technical resources, and which will
continue to press for deeper institutional transformation. These may
include business, labor, women’s or other civil society groups. The
push for inclusion need not include every group. And inclusion needs to
be balanced with efficiency, results, and – where it is important to
signal a break with the past — justice and legitimacy.

Early wins –
actions that can generate quick, tangible results – are critical to
building confidence that will enable the extension of national capacity
over time. In Kosovo, highway security paved the way to increased trade
and consequently jobs. In Liberia, basic improvements in security and
electricity, along with steps against corruption, were central. These
quick successes must be compatible with, rather than undermine,
longer-term efforts to strengthen institutions. If services and public
works are delivered only through well-meaning international partners or
top-down national programs, the country will not build the local
institutions or support that are key to sustaining recovery through
inevitable challenges and changing conditions.

Early wins also
need to be pragmatic “best-fit” reforms that allow for flexibility and
innovation; they need to adapt to local conditions rather than being
technically perfect. In some cases, “best-fit” may entail “second best”
implications. A good example is Lebanon’s decision to rely on small
private sector networks of providers to restore electricity following
the civil war – a tradeoff between using a non-governmental capacity
with high unit costs but getting fast results.

International
agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so
that assistance can be swift enough to provide for early wins and
pragmatic enough to allow for best-fit reforms. Integrated assistance,
especially through multi-donor trust funds, enables countries with weak
capacity to connect help to priorities, reinforce mutual gains across
topics, and build national ownership. Coordinated international help is
vital to counter external stresses that can fuel fragility and
violence, such as trafficking and illicit financial flows, food
insecurity and resource shocks.

We also need to
fill in major structural gaps. There are places where fragile states
can seek help to build an army, but not police forces or corrections
systems (although the UN has had an initial trial). The World Bank
could help by doing more to build civilian justice systems. We also
need to place more emphasis on early projects to create jobs,
especially through the private sector. We need a better “handoff”
between humanitarian and development agencies, too. All these projects
involve risks. If legislatures and inspectors expect only the upside,
and just pillory the failures, institutions will steer away from the
most difficult problems or strangle themselves with procedures and
committees to avoid responsibility.

Lastly, we need to
be realistic: historically, even the fastest transformations have taken
a generation. New technologies may accelerate the timeline, either
through improved service delivery options (such as using cell phones to
deliver payments) or greater transparency and access to information
through social networking (as we have seen most recently in the Middle
East). But we still need to measure progress in terms of decades rather
than years. Even at this pace, the results can make a huge difference.

Robert B. Zoellick is the president of the World Bank Group

All schools were
closed down. No form of teaching or learning took place for the
duration. When it was discovered that the private school the
president’s children attend did not close down along with others,
public outcry forced it to close down also. After the initial two
weeks, an extension was sought and granted. So for an entire month, all
primary and secondary schools in the whole country were shut. Even in
tertiary institutions, not much activity took place.

In that one-month
period, every Nigerian aged 18 and above was practically drafted to put
down their names and fingerprints at various centres. Government said
it was a civic duty. Preachers harangued citizens on the need to
perform this divinely ordained responsibility. Parties tried every
trick known and unknown to get people to these centres. Civil society
groups made sure they were not left out and they shouted loudly on the
need for citizens to participate in the noble exercise. Public holidays
were declared in several states to ensure that the details of all
eligible citizens were captured. Sophisticated digital equipment, worth
over USD 500 million, were imported. At the end of one month of frantic
activity, including a week’s extension, over 73 million gallant
Nigerians had voluntarily participated in the noble cause.

D-Day

The nation’s land,
air and sea borders are closed. All flights are grounded. Movement
within cities and towns is restricted. Interstate travel is forbidden.
An explosion in the outskirts of the capital leaves about 20 people
dead and many more injured. Another explosion in a far north-east city
leaves about five people dead and several injured. There is sporadic
gunfire in many towns. Gunfights break out, leaving many people dead.
The whole country is awash with firearms. There is fear of violence in
the air.

There is palpable
tension everywhere. International monitoring groups and other observers
are moving about from one location to another trying to ascertain the
state of things. There are roadblocks manned by fierce-looking
policemen every few streets. The military is out in force. Armoured
personnel carriers can be seen at strategic locations. It seems that
everybody that ever wore any form of uniform, albeit decades ago, is
wearing the uniform and strutting about. The economy shuts down
completely; hardly anything can be bought or sold and most services are
severely curtailed.

The currency is
under tremendous strain. Some $22 billion from the Excess Crude Account
set up as a stabilisation fund is said to have been withdrawn. A major
newspaper reports this story: “In a move targeted at meeting dealers’
rising appetite for forex as … draws nearer, the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) has increased its supply of dollar at the bi-weekly
Wholesale Dutch Auction System (WDAS) to $600 million. The regulator
had raised its supply to $400 million at its March 14 auction, from
between $200 and $300 million, which it had offered at various auctions
in the preceding month. Dealers attributed the trend to panic over the
outcome of the forthcoming….” In every nook and corner, people are
gathered together in groups whispering all sorts of news and looking
anxiously over their shoulders. No one is sure of what is really
happening, so the rumour mill begins work overtime. This group will
conquer the southwest and make inroads into the north central. That
group will march into the government houses of this and that state. No,
it has a splinter group that has vowed not to rest until they drive
their ‘enemies’ out of town.

There is talk of
multifaceted campaigns, strategies and conquests. Popular language on
the streets is “no retreat, no surrender until we capture that zone”.
“We will defeat them, bring them to Abuja and lock them up” is what I
heard some people whispering. Other people are told “the outcome of
this struggle will determine what happens to your life and that of your
children; you must be vigilant”. “We will protect our mandates and
fight to the finish to ensure that we break the chains of injustice and
oppression that must not be allowed….” Prayers are offered in mosques
and churches. Some groups embark on fervent fasting. The president
attends midnight prayer sessions and seeks prayers for victory. Prayer
warriors of all faiths are engaged in frantic appeal to the Almighty to
ensure that victory is certain….

This setting is not
in Côte d’Ivoire. The scene is not from Libya. And, no, the country is
neither being invaded nor has it declared war.

It is election time in Nigeria.

Libya, a sprawling
country of sand and oil on the edge of the Mediterranean, has always
held out some lessons for the African continent. One of the richest
countries on the continent, it was also one of the most stable;
although its leader, Muammar Gaddafi, has always been drawn to
intervene in several countries on the continent. Now, the country has
become another in a long list of African countries pulled apart by
internal conflict and primordial allegiances.

Mr Gaddafi, in turns an Arab or African nationalist, is a maverick leader that has ruled his country unchallenged for upwards of 40 years. The man who survived the Cold War battles with the West would have continued to enjoy his job but for the sudden outbreak of a wave of antiauthoritarian protests that has rocked the Arab world since January.

Although the protesters were able to sweep away long-ruling leaders in Egypt and Tunisia, they ran into difficulties in Libya, Algeria, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain. Somehow, the Libyan unrest degenerated
into a civil war — largely on the back of the singleminded
crackdown on the protesters by the Libyan government, and the decision of the opposition to seek an armed response to their yearning to remove Mr Gaddafi from power.

Displacing the Libyan regime was a hard task for the rebel fighters, and on the back of reports of possible massacre of rebel forces and civilians in the towns they controlled, and tough-sounding words from Mr Gaddafi and his sons about the fate that would befall unrepentant rebels, the West put together an armed intervention in the country to, as the United Nations Security Council puts it, “protect the civilian population” of Libya.

The international military force,deployed despite protests from the African Union, has indeed dropped a lot of bombs to degrade the military capacity of the Libyan defence forces. It has also bolstered the cause of the rebels who are now being feted in several European and Arab capitals as the authentic leaders of the Libyan people although they have been constantly beaten down by the more professional Libyan army which has largely stayed loyal to the Gaddafi regime.

The situation in Libya is, therefore, one of an unsustainable stalemate. On one side is the Libyan government — still strong
despite international isolation and attacks by foreign forces; on the other side are the rebels, weak and rancorous, but enjoying
international support and acclaim. No wonder the group has been the most rigid in its demands regarding the best solution
to the impasse.
Several meetings had, indeed been held in Europe and the Middle East —another one is ongoing in Qatar — to resolve the crisis.
But unless the east-west division in the country is allowed to gradually become defacto, it is hard to see any meeting of minds unless a massive military force is brought to bear on either of the two sides. And even that, as NATO leaders have warned, might not be enough to unify the country around
another leader.

The African Union, after widespread condemnation over its slow response to the crisis, has tentatively made efforts to bring back peace to Libya. Early in the
week, a group of African leaders led by the president of South Africa, Jacob Zuma, were in the country to meet with Libyan government officials in Tripoli and the rebel leadership in Benghazi. They had more success during the Tripoli meeting. Mr Gaddafi accepted to abide by the road map prepared by the African
Union to assist Libya towards lasting peace and democracy.

The roadmap basically calls for the immediate cessation of all hostilities;
cooperation of the competent Libyan authorities to facilitate the timely delivery of humanitarian assistance to the needy populations; protection of foreign nationals, including the African migrants living in Libya; and the adoption and implementation of the political reforms necessary for the elimination of the causes of the current crisis.
The rebels, possibly thinking that the AU does not really have much clout,
rejected the roadmap, insisting that Mr Gaddafi must first leave before any discussion could take place with the rump of his administration. Their position tallies with that of France and Britain. But unless these countries are willing to commit troops to actualise their wish, it is hard to see how that will happen.

Meanwhile, the war attrition continues killing people, ruining lives, destroying
the country’s infrastructure and hardening emotions on both sides of the conflict. Since negotiations are about give and take, it would not do to set hard rules about the outcome before they get started. Ironically, the European Union has significant experience in this line of work. Its officials might
share this with their military counterparts in NATO.

Nigeria will vote a president into
power over the next few days and the key determinant of people’s
choices will be based on the analysis of the fundamental challenge of
this greatly loved and often vilified country. For many who believe her
problem is corruption and indiscipline, they will choose Muhammadu
Buhari, a retired general, an honest and strict man who oversaw the
worst drop in the country’s economic history and ran one of its most
authoritarian dictatorships. For those who see the key challenge as
generational, they are most likely to cast their vote for Nuhu Ribadu,
a post-independence poster child who ran one of the most successful
interventions against corruption even though many saw him as just a
political attack dog. For those who want to end the irrational and
badly engineered hegemony of tribal as well as sectional majorities,
well, the current president is their choice. Then you have the
articulate Ibrahim Shekarau who seems to have captured those who want
someone with the presidential command of an audience or subject.

As we look at the rest of the world
days before this election, however, what lessons do the challenges and
standards raised and flying across the Middle East teach the Nigerian
voter? What lessons are emerging at the beginning of the second decade
of the 21st century? What is clear is that the 21st century abhors
hierarchy. It is also not impressed about the size and range of your
hardware. The 21st century is power ‘with’; rather than power ‘over’.
The transformation of Nigeria will not be done in Aso Rock or even in
the respective state houses, but in the shacks, face me-I face yous,
bungalows and duplexes of the 28 million Nigerian families. So how do
our presidential candidates fare as 21st century leaders who can enable
Nigerians to transform their country?

On economy

The Buhari/CPC
manifesto is the most specific and detailed on the economy, and has key
highlights especially integrating the informal economy as well as
reform of the Land Use Act, both of which can be transformational. The
Ribadu principle of creating macroeconomic discipline is similar to the
Jonathan approach, both are broad brushed and appear transactional,
however, therein lies the challenge. The Buhari principle assumes that
government has power over the economy rather than creating the climate
to enable the private sector. On the other hand, the Ribadu and
Jonathan principles are more focused on the enabling environment.

On corruption

The Ribadu
manifesto is the most transformative, recognising implicitly the issue
of equality of opportunity and the need for a system of creating value
over a concentration on the efficient and transparent distribution that
underpins both the Jonathan and Buhari outlooks. The Ribadu manifesto
looks at corruption as a challenge, not just in government but in all
sectors of society, and commits to enabling a value creation culture
that will open up responsibility. Of the three, Ribadu has the track
record for the best intervention against corruption in Nigeria.

On power

The Ribadu
manifesto is by far the clearest statement, setting out an agenda for
capacity improvement and the increase in energy sources. It
specifically engages the longer term and sustainable needs of Nigeria.
The Jonathan manifesto is short on facts but maybe relies on the energy
policy of the government which recognises the role of the private
sector as does the Ribadu position. The Buhari manifesto is focused
solely on increased capacity with a broad statement on alternative
energies.

All the manifestos
ignore the most sustained and profound trend in the Nigerian landscape
— the issue of urban migration or urbanisation and its implications for
the future. It currently grows at about twice the rate of population
growth, i.e. 2.8 percent per annum population growth and 5.8 percent
urban population growth. They also ignore the unsustainable nature of
the population growth and its effect on the ability to provide quality
life.

On women

Far more revealing
is their position on women’s development. Jonathan’s plan is totally
silent on women’s issues or their special role in transforming the
country. In the Buhari manifesto, it appears women are an afterthought.
It essentially guarantees that women have their constitutional rights
and representation. The Ribadu manifesto puts the women’s agenda at the
top of their list, setting out the implementation of all international
commitments to the development and transformation of the lives of
women. It is also the only manifesto that gives specific focus to the
majority of the Nigerians — the young people.

The presidency of
the Federal Republic of Nigeria is not a place for temper tantrums. It
is a sacred role to enable the dreams of nearly 150 million Nigerians
for a society in which they can pursue prosperity. The challenge is to
find the leader who recognises we need authoritative engagement, not
authoritarian pronouncements; that inspires ownership not encouraging
dependency; one that understands that it is ultimately to share in our
power, not have power over us.

Adewale Ajadi writes from Ibadan.

A straight line is completely
antithetical to the concept of good food. The reason why the idea of
stock cubes is so tragic is because stock cubes are the unimaginative
shortest distance between two points. You want a pot of stew or soup to
taste delicious, and you immediately reach for the stock cubes. But it
is for this very reason that Nigerian food has lost something very
essential. The soul of the pot of soup or savoury dish in any culture
is the layering of flavours and it is this layering that old hands over
time turn into virtuosity.

The layering of flavours achieves the
desired umami. Umami is a word borrowed from the Japanese, and it is
best defined as a well rounded savoury taste. Scientists suggest that
certain taste receptors induce salivation and a furry sensation on the
tongue, stimulating the throat, the roof and the back of the mouth.
They are informally referred to as umami taste receptors, in addition
to the sweet, sour, bitter and salty receptors.

In 1908, a Japanese scientist called
Kikunae Ikeda isolated the glutamate that is the chemical source for
the taste of umami. It is with this knowledge that monosodium glutamate
came to rule the world. We can say he created the beginnings of our
loss of sophistication, but the Japanese, in spite of chemical
alternatives to glutamate like Ajinomoto, have not lost their esteem
for natural sources of glutamate and umami, like kombu seaweed and
dashi; these foods, along with the almighty miso, remain fundamentals
in Japanese cooking.

Fermentation is one of the most time
honoured ways of increasing the glutamate levels and umami in foods.
Thelma Bello, my cherished food mentor, eagerly drew my attention to a
brown paper package in Marian Market last week. She opened it
carefully, parting dried, some rotting, leaves. Lost in relation to
leaves and paper was a smear of something, visually an anticlimax, and
also a little off-putting. That stingy smear was nothing more than
fermented melon seeds or castor oil seeds left to the will of nature
and the aggression of fermenting bacteria: in other words, ogiri.

Ms. Bello took me to a local condiment
vendor who sold the ogiri as well as three different types of Dadawa or
what I call iru. Not that thoroughly offensive Yoruba iru pete that
draws flies like something dead…but beautiful delicately layered
aromas of fermented cocoa beans on rain beaten soil, meaty and warm and
organic, the pungency of fermentation mellow and comfortable in the
nose.

Even over many years of sporadically
eating iru and smelling it in food, I have never got used to the
pungency of the smell nor comfortably eating it. A friend from Benue
State gave me a version that I worked hard at loving, but ended up
binning because the smell just wore me out. I cannot comprehend how
anyone can eat something that smells so very bad.

This condiment woman’s iru/Dadawa was
the most expensive I had ever seen. A small ball of the dark locust
beans held together was N100. I also bought a significantly cheaper
version, still bearable but stronger smelling, with the same suggestion
of dark chocolate and as dark in complexion as rich loam. The
insignificant smear of ogiri was N100, and worked out the most
expensive of the three. I call the combination of the three condiments
the kings of umami. I dare any pot of stew not to become gorgeous after
it has crossed their path.

Since that day in the market, I have
felt some lingering sense of irritation and disappointment that these
possibilities of explosive natural flavour, so much a part of our
culture of food, should be disdained for trashy Maggi cubes, when on
par with any sophisticated miso, or aromatic nam pla, or nutritious
kombu, or soya sauce. What excuse do we have?! My last but not least
purchase from this gem of a woman in the market was cups of
hand-shelled egusi.

What did I do when I got home? I
layered the aroma and flavour of heated palm oil with that of expensive
Dadawa, fried the locust beans for a while before adding onions for the
base of my soup, then blended hot aromatic peppers, onions and tatase;
stockfish, catfish, hand-shelled egusi roasted in a hot pan (most of it
ending up in my mouth), a little ogbono and fresh ugwu…

If I ever cook with another Maggi cube in my life, may the word ingrate be branded with hot iron on my forehead!