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Trading trends
indicate that investors in the Nigerian stock market are showing more
interest in some bank shares in spite of the crisis in the sector.

Analysis of
transactions in the banking subsector of listed equities show that the
shares of some trouble-free banks – UBA, Guaranty Trust, First Bank,
Fidelity; and a rescued bank – Finbank have continued to top as the
most traded stocks in the past five trading days.

Analyst says the
rationale behind investors’ interest in the banking stocks could be
attributed to government’s efforts to return the banking industry back
to profitability.

Gbenga Emmanuel, a
finance analyst at WealthZone Company, a portfolio management firm,
said, “What is happening presently in the market is more of the
activities of institutional investors and few individual investors
trying to take position in some banks.”

Mr Emmanuel said
banks are becoming attractive “not because they usually dominate
trading at the Stock Exchange but because of various efforts by the
government to ensure that banks continue to do business and give good
returns to their investors.”

Sinking fund

Meanwhile, Kingsley
Moghalu, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Deputy Governor on Financial
System Stability, recently said banks and the CBN have come together to
establish a sinking fund to contribute to the revolution of the banking
industry.

“This is the first
in the world and it is phenomenal. Banks have voluntarily said they
will contribute 0.3 per cent of their assets over 10 years to resolve
the banking crisis, including banks that we could say were not part of
the problems,” Mr. Moghalu said, adding that “with the creation of the
sinking fund coupled with the Asset Management Corporation, we may
resolve in a unique outcome the financial crisis in Nigeria at very
little or no cost to tax payers.”

At the close of
Monday’s trading, the Exchange’s market capitalisation, which recorded
N184 billion losses in last week’s trading, gained over N42 billion or
0.69 per cent increase to close at N6.152 trillion from N6.110
trillion. The All-Share Index was up by 0.69 per cent to close at
25,156.46 basis points from 24,984.80, reflecting an increase of 171.66
units.

A total of 31
stocks appreciated in price on Monday, while 35 stocks depreciated.
First Bank, Finbank, and UBA were the most traded stocks yesterday,
followed by Guaranty Trust Bank and Aiico Insurance.

The banking
subsector led the most active subsector’s chart with 178 million
quantities of shares, valued at over N1.517 billion. The subsector’s
volume was largely boosted by shares listed in the most traded stocks
above.

Trading activities
in the insurance subsector followed, with 24 million shares valued at
N29.206 million. Volume in the subsector was driven by shares of Aiico
Insurance, Guaranty Trust Assurance, and Mutual Benefits Assurance.

The information and communication technology subsector was third on
Monday, with over 11 million shares valued at N6.437 million. Volume in
this subsector was largely boosted by shares of MTI Nigeria; followed
by Chams, Starcomms, and IHS Nigeria.

Japan’s
economic growth slowed to a crawl in the second quarter and analysts
see more weakness ahead, adding to policymakers’ headaches as they
grapple with deflation and a rise in the yen that threatens an
export-reliant recovery.

Slowing growth in
main export destinations such as the United States and China clouds the
outlook, while policymakers are trying hard to talk down the yen after
it surged to a 15-year high against the dollar last week.

Japan’s quarterly
gross domestic product growth of 0.1 percent translates to annualised
expansion of 0.4 percent, well below the median market forecast of 2.3
percent and the United States’ 2.4 percent annualised growth in the
same quarter.

That followed
revised 4.4 percent annualised growth in the first quarter, when both
exports and a stimulus-driven recovery in consumption contributed to
overall growth.

In the April-June
quarter, the stimulus effects have worn off, leaving exports as the
sole engine of growth and with its contribution to growth halved to 0.3
percent, the economy just eked out a third straight quarter of
expansion.

Prime Minister,
Naoto Kan, and Bank of Japan governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, are expected
to meet later this week to discuss the yen’s strength and possible
responses, although analysts said there is not much they can do.

“I think the Bank
of Japan and the government need to take decisive action against
currency moves. Solo currency intervention is possible if the yen
approaches 80 to the dollar. If that is accompanied by monetary easing
by the Bank of Japan, it may have a certain effect,” said Takeshi
Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo.

China leap-frogs ahead

The latest figures
put China ahead of Japan as the world’s second-largest economy for the
quarter on a nominal dollar basis, said Keisuke Tsumura, a
parliamentary secretary at the Cabinet Office. He added, however, that
one should wait for full-year figures before changing the rankings.

“Since we have
different calculations for seasonal adjustments, it would be correct
and fair to compare the figures for the whole year,” Tsumura said.

Japan’s
second-quarter GDP before seasonal adjustments totaled $1.2883 trillion
against China’s second-quarter unadjusted GDP of $1.3369 trillion, he
said.

China’s top currency regulator said last month that his country’s economy had already overtaken Japan’s.

Japanese government
bond futures jumped after the weak data, with September 10-year futures
rising 0.28 point to 142.67, their highest since June 2003, while
benchmark 10-year yields slipped to a seven-year low of 0.950 percent.
The Nikkei stock index .N225 fell nearly 1 percent.

“The economy may
enter a lull late this year or early next year, or even stagnate. Much
depends on the performance of overseas economies,” said Yoshiki Shinke,
senior economist, Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.

Concerns of Rising Yen

Analysts added that
the rise in the yen, which climbed to 84.72 per dollar, may begin to
pinch export growth in the latter half of the fiscal year to next March.

Kan has expressed
concern about the yen’s strength and government sources said he may
meet the central bank governor as early as this week to discuss the
matter.

“We need to look at
this closely, and that includes the currency problem. I have asked
cabinet ministers involved to report to me about the economic
situation,” Kan told reporters when asked whether the GDP data showed
the economy needed new stimulus measures.

Late last year, the
last time the yen strengthened beyond the 85 yen mark, the BOJ called
an emergency meeting and announced a three-month funding scheme, a day
before Shirakawa met with the then-prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama.

The yen has risen
steadily against the dollar since early May, gaining more than 10
percent and closing in on its 1995 record high of 79.75 per dollar,
prompting markets to speculate that Tokyo might take action.

But currency market
intervention is seen as difficult, whether jointly or alone, although
market players said the risk of solo action increases the closer the
yen gets to 80 per dollar, and if its rise accelerates to a pace of 2
to 3 yen per day.

Investors see a monetary policy response from the BOJ as more likely than currency intervention.

Signs of a
faltering economy put more pressure on Kan, ahead of his party’s
leadership vote next month, in which he may face a challenge from
powerbroker, Ichiro Ozawa, or a proxy, either of whom would be less
keen to forge ahead with fiscal reform.

Japan’s recovery
has been spotty since emerging from its worst recession since World War
Two in mid-2009, relying heavily on exports, particularly to Asia, and
government stimulus for spending on energy-efficient cars and
electronics.

The Central Bank of
Nigeria governor, Lamido Sanusi, said on Monday he would be satisfied
with a headline inflation rate of 9.0-9.5 percent, and that creating
economic growth should be the priority.

“When you have a
country of 150 million people with 70 percent below the poverty line,
it is extremely important … to provide a stable environment to ensure
growth of the economy is not hampered by some desire to pursue a very
low single-digit rate of inflation,” Sanusi told CNBC Africa Television.

“We have brought inflation down in the last one year from 16 percent
to 10 percent. We think we can do single digits and that is good
enough, 9 percent, 9.5, would do for me.”

The Central Bank
has received bids for four of the lenders rescued in a $4 billion
bailout last year, Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi told CNBC Africa
television on Monday.

Mr Sanusi said two
foreign institutions were involved in the bidding process, as well as
several local banks and private equity firms in partnership with
foreign banks.

“The advisers have
finished analysing bids already received for four of the banks. We
expect the bids for the others to have been completed by the end of
this month,” Mr Sanusi said.

The Central Bank has been seeking investors to recapitalise its rescued banks.

Royal Dutch Shell
said on Sunday that sabotage of its crude oil pipelines in Nigeria’s
southern Niger Delta had increased in recent weeks, but was silent on
whether there had been any impact on output.

Shell’s Nigerian
SPDC joint venture said it had recorded three incidents this month of
suspected thieves siphoning oil by drilling holes or using hacksaws to
pierce pipelines in the Cawthorne Channel leading to its Bonny export
terminal.

“In the latest incident, the investigating team discovered three
hacksaw cuts on the Cawthorne Channel-Bonny pipeline. We have informed
the relevant authorities of the incidents,” said Babs Omotowa, Shell’s
Africa vice president, health and safety.

The declining
external reserve portends significant risk to the value of the naira,
experts have said, as the country continues to be dependent on foreign
exchange from oil sales to lubricate the domestic financial market.

Nigeria’s external
reserves continued its downward trajectory during the second quarter,
with the country’s fallback declining further from $40 billion at end
of first quarter this year to $37billion at the end of second quarter
representing an 8.62 per cent fall.

The reserve stood
at $52 billion and was $42 billion as at end of 2008 and 2009 end,
after reaching $60 billion in July 2008 at the height of the oil price
boom of 2007/2008.

Experts said with
the ensuing challenges and expected increase in forex demand for
imports as year-end approaches, there may be some pressure on the value
of the naira in the near term.

“The striking
thought now borders on how long the external reserves could meet the
higher demand for the naira. The successful creation of a Sovereign
Wealth Fund (SWF) would in the long run provide future streams of
income to serve as alternative source of foreign exchange,” Access
Bank’s Economic Quarterly stated.

“In addition, the
return of low investors’ sentiment regarding the slow pace of recovery
of the global economy, due to the Greek-led sovereign credit default
risk, would likely provide significant risk to the country’s main
foreign exchange earner, as developed countries factors in the downturn
in productive activities. Oil price recently experienced marked
volatility at the international market, with implications for
government revenue.”

Changed foreign exchange outlook

Victor Ndukauba, a
research analyst at Afrinvest, a finance and investment banking firm
said “Apart from (forex) being stable, it even had the potential for
some kind of appreciation, but what has happened over the past two
months has totally changed the outlook of Forex.” He attributed this to
the depletion of the excess crude oil account and other reserves and
rising import demand.

Statistics from the
report by Access Bank states that at the official market, the value of
the naira depreciated against the US Dollar in second quarter when
compared with end of quarter one of 2010 figures, but appreciated at
the interbank market, while it remained stable at N152/$ in the Bureau
de change.

“Naira’s value
declined, albeit marginally, at the official and parallel markets by
0.14 per cent and 0.5 per cent to N148.50/$ and N153/$, respectively
from end of first quarter of the year and appreciated by 3.9 per cent
to N150.05/$ at the inter- bank. In the same period of 2009, the naira
appreciated across all segments of the market, except at the interbank
market where it depreciated by 1.5 per cent. Naira has remained
relatively stable around N150/$, following CBN’s commitment to defend
the currency against volatility,” the report stated.

But the Bureau de
change does not think the naira will suffer the free fall like it did
last year. Over the recent months, the value of the naira has shown
increased convergence across all segments of the market which can be
attributed to sustained high Forex supply and transparency of the
foreign exchange market, amid the Central Bank’s resolve to meet
legitimate Forex demand though its stability is constantly accentuated
by the nation’s dwindling external reserves.

“I do not think it would go up down like it did last year because of
the intervention of the Central Bank. The system of this CBN is very
good, so I don’t think they would allow the Naira to fall like that”
Gali Suleiman Kabiru, the spokesperson of a section of Hausa currency
changers in Marina, Lagos state said.