Archive for nigeriang

Farmers settle N5.8bn in loan repayment

Farmers settle N5.8bn in loan repayment

A total of N5.85
billion was repaid as loans by Nigerian farmers under the Agricultural
Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF) last year. The highest repaid
amount of N769.15 million, representing 13.15 percent of the total, was
made by Delta State, followed by Katsina and Adamawa states with
N667.21 million and N532.64 million, respectively. Ekiti had the lowest
repayment figure of N15.7 million, trailing Abuja, which repaid N19.12
million, and Bayelsa, which repaid N19.18 million.

According to data
released by the Developmental Finance department of the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN), the funds were disbursed to finance 50,119 projects
across the country, with Katsina State topping the list at 7,184
projects, followed by Kogi and Sokoto states with 6,877 and 5,618
projects, respectively. Abuja had the least number of projects with 50
while Ekiti and Bayelsa had 111 and 120 projects, respectively.
Nassarawa State did not record any projects.

Since its establishment in 1978, the ACGSF has granted around 692,716 loans valued at about N41.34 billion.

The ACGSF was
formed solely to encourage financial institutions to lend funds to
those engaged in agricultural production and agro-processing
activities, with the aim of enhancing the export capacity of the nation
as well as for local consumption. The fund is set up with the sole
purpose of providing guarantees in respect to loans granted by any bank
for agricultural purposes.

Interest Drawback

Likewise, N694.67
million has been repaid to farmers under the Interest Drawback
Programme (IDP) of the ACGSF. The IDP was set up in 2004. Under the
IDP, farmers shall borrow from the lending banks at market-determined
rates and after the liquidation of the loan, they shall be entitled to
interest drawback at the pre-determined IDP rate. The IDP has an
authorised capital fund of about N2 billion and is funded jointly by
the federal government and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the
ratio of 60:40.

Under the IDP, the
highest amount paid during the period was made last year when N227.44
million was paid out. According to the CBN, the repayment trend is
encouraging. “A trend analysis of the loan repayment performance of the
ACGSF over the years shows that the IDP has impacted positively on the
operations of the scheme as it induced clients to repay on time,” the
CBN stated.

To be eligible for
the loan drawdown, a farmer must have repaid both loan principal and
interest within the agreed tenure. However, a grace period of three
months for repayment may be allowed but drawback entitlement shall be
calculated only up to the scheduled date for the final repayment of the
loans. This means that interest accruing during the grace period will
not be part of the amount to be refunded.

“Farmers that liquidate loans after the expiration of the guarantee
certificate/grace period are not eligible and shall be disqualified,”
say the CBN guidelines. “A loan for which repayment period is extended
after the expiration of the original guarantee certificate shall not
qualify to benefit under the IDP.”

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Labour-trade union feud still pending in court

Labour-trade union feud still pending in court

The feud between
the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC)
over the two factions of the Association of Senior Staff of Banks,
Insurance and other Financial Institutions (ASSBIFI) is still pending
at the National Industrial Court.

The two unions are
embroiled in a battle of wits over where the union belongs. A faction
claims it belongs to NLC while another is claiming affiliation to the
NLC.

Sunday Salako,
president, ASSBIFI, under the TUC, said the NLC ASSBIFI faction,
especially those in Union Bank “left our camp since 2004 and have since
been on their own. When they were here, they used to have the highest
number of staff members then, so there was this thinking that they must
produce the president of the association during any elections and then
there was a fall out. They say they are with NLC, and we are not. So
that is what happened.

He said the workers
withdrew from the association when they anticipated that because they
had the largest unit of attendance, they should always produce the
president of the union and hence, there have been legal issues over why
they still maintained the name of the union, instead of getting a new
one.

The matter, along
with other subsisting disagreement, was referred to the Industrial
Arbitration Panel (IAP) for arbitration. The IAP confirmed the
existence of inter union dispute in ASSBIFI and advised both parties to
return to the 2007 agreement.

Obukese Orere,
general secretary of the NLC faction of ASSBIFI, had earlier said the
constitution allows people to belong to any union they choose and that
people who say TUC is the umbrella body for senior staff are not
totally right.

Delay not healthy

The delay in
resolving this issue, however, has been proven to be harmful to member
banks and ultimately, the welfare of bank workers.

In February, the
dispute between both parties reached its peak when Union Bank banned
its chapter of ASSBIFI on grounds that it was not properly affiliated.

At the height of
the bank’s misunderstanding with its workers, it issued a statement
that “Following the unlawful operations of UBASS (Union Bank
Association of Senior Staff) and ASSBIFI (Association of Senior Staff
of Banks, Insurance and other Financial institutions), Union Bank of
Nigeria Plc has withdrawn its recognition of the above named trade
union bodies with immediate effect. All concerned have been duly
advised. The general public should please take note.”

Following this, the
NLC embarked on a nationwide picketing of the 94-year old institution,
basically disrupting its operations for several days. The Congress said
it is not the duty of Mrs Osibodu to de-recognise ASSBIFI, its
affiliate, or any industrial union since there are statutory bodies in
place to regulate trade union activities.

“On the legality or
otherwise of ASSBIFI, we wish to unequivocally state that the dispute
is still pending at the Industrial Arbitration Panel (AIP) and no
judgement has been delivered up to this moment to warrant the
unfortunate and totally contemptuous decision of the Union Bank
management,” the labour union had said.

The matter was,
however, resolved after the minister of labour waded in and advised the
bank to accede to the demands of the union.

Industry watchers and banks have said they would not be part of what is happening until the issues are legally addressed.

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Stanbic IBTC appoints new CEO

Stanbic IBTC appoints new CEO

The StanbicIBTC Bank has announced the appointment of Sola David-Borha as its new Chief Executive Officer (CEO).

The appointment, which was made today, is with effect from May 1. Ms. David-Borha, who is currently joint Deputy Chief Executive, succeeds Chris Newson, who is taking up a new role as Standard Banks’ Regional Managing Director for West Africa.

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Banks optimistic about credit availability in 2011

Banks optimistic about credit availability in 2011

Bankers have expressed optimism that the sector would be better disposed to create new assets by increasing their loan facilities to more applicants this year.

This is because some of the banks in their 2010 year end books have demonstrated that with the intervention of the Asset Management Company (AMCON), they have been able to clear their non performing loans from their books.

This move, they say, would place them in a better position to create new assets, a responsibility they have been shying away from since the industry’s crisis about two years ago.

Investigation reveals that though the banks had sufficient liquidity in 2010, their hesitation to create new assets by granting loan facilities was of huge concern.

Better days ahead

For instance, Stanbic IBTC in its 2010 year end results presentation recently said, “There was significant market liquidity, with resultant reduction in interest rate.” It, however, added that there was “limited investment outlets to channel excess liquidity”.

First City Monument Bank (FCMB), in its presentation of its 2010 financial performance, said it is optimistic that “Asset quality should improve further retail lending, commercial banking, project and structured finance to drive loan growth in 2011.”

The bank said retail business is expected to achieve fully loaded profitability, driven by deposit growth, loan growth, and improved interest rate environment.

One of the major factors that contributed to unusually low yields of banks was the pervading risk averse attitude, such that instead of making loans available to the real economy, banks rather invested in government debt market.

Adesoji Solanke, banking analyst at the Renaissance Capital, an investment bank, is, however, optimistic that the “implementation of AMCON activities in 2011 will increase the ability of banks to provide credit to their customers and promises to reduce volatility in the market”.

Renaissance Capital, in a research note on the industry, said there is a gradual dissipation of banks’ asset quality concerns.

According to it, “Our Nigerian banks’ analyst expects an uptick in lending activity to impact positively on banks’ income in 2011.”

Asset quality concerns in the Nigerian banking space are expected to end soon, when AMCON should have purchased all non performing loans in the sector.

It is expected that the extension of the interbank money guarantee by the Central Bank would improve confidence in the money market, the marginal growth in private sector credits and competition for good quality assets, and the ongoing reforms in the banking industry would help the banks gain more confidence to lend to credible applicants.

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World Bank, AU launch 2011 World Development Report

World Bank, AU launch 2011 World Development Report

Officials of both the World Bank and the African Union (AU) in Addis Ababa have launched the 2011 World Development Report, published by the World Bank.

Sarah Cliff, a World Bank Representative, and Ramtane Lamamra, the AU Commissioner for Peace and Security, represented the two bodies at the occasion.

Presenting the executive summary of the report, which was titled ‘Conflict, Security and Development’, Ms Cliff said it focused on peace, security, conflict, human rights violation, suffering of people, and violence.

“It focuses on development initiative and development in Africa, impact on development and violence, trends of violence and development, forms of violence as it affects development, increased crime, and drug trafficking in Africa,” she said.

Ms Cliff said the report also looked at internal and external pressures on society, among other issues.

“These are the high levels of unemployment, youth recruitment into rebel movements and gangs, and impacts of economic shocks, especially from high prices of food,” she said.

She added that some of the solutions identified by the report include violence prevention between states and citizens, and restoring confidence between groups, societies, organisations, nations and communities.

The report also identifies the role of organisations like the AU Commission which have a regional approach and solution to economic crises beyond individual countries.

Lessons from other lands

She said lessons learnt from Ghana, Liberia, and Mozambique, which recovered from economic shocks, include the use of a bottom-up approach.

“This approach is to empower citizens for economic growth, ensure security, justice reform mixed with traditional institutions, and job creation for the youth. Women agencies should also be incorporated in poverty reduction and eradication programmes, while the strengthening of anti-corruption agencies will ensure judicious use of state resources,” Ms Cliff said.

The World Bank representative said about 1.5 billion people were affected by violence and conflict.

“This means that children of those affected were deprived of schools, decent accommodation, adequate food and water, among other health issues.”

Earlier, Mr Lamamra had said the AU Commission would continue to collaborate with the World Bank, especially in the area of conflict prevention, management, and continental development in general. He gave the assurance that the AU would strengthen its partnership with the World Bank in order to reduce conflict on the continent.

The 58-page report is divided into three parts. Part one focuses on the challenges of repeated cycles of violence, while part two talks about a roadmap for breaking cycles of violence at the country level. The roadmap includes restoring confidence and transforming the instrument that provides citizen security, justice, and jobs.

Part three discusses the reduction of the risk of violence as a direction for international policy, which includes adopting community level programmes designed by country context.

This is the first time the report has been launched in Africa.

NAN

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Stock market loses N449b

Stock market loses N449b

The Nigerian Stock
Exchange recorded a total loss of N449 billion on equities at the close
of trading activities in March, after recording significant losses of
N260 billion in the preceding month.

The market value of
the 217 listed equities, which opened the month at N8.315 trillion,
closed on the last trading day in March at N7.866 trillion, reflecting
a N449 billion loss or 5.39 per cent decline.

The Exchange
attributed the downturn in stock market activities to the decline in
investors’ confidence, but said efforts are being made to fully restore
confidence in the system.

Femi Oladehin, vice
president and managing director of BGL Limited, an investment bank,
said political risks in the country and the crisis in the Middle East
and North Africa region contributed to the withdrawal of funds by some
foreign investors from the market.

He said uncertainty
remains in the market this quarter because “significant contributors of
trading in the Nigerian market are foreign investors as against local
investors.”

In the mean time,
market watchers have predicted that if elections are peaceful, the
Exchange will start recording stable rebound early May.

Daisy Ekineh, an
executive commissioner at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC),
said recently that the SEC’s key plan this year is to deepen the market
by “promoting more listings in the oil and gas, telecom companies,
small scale enterprises, and privatised enterprises.”

Mrs Ekineh also
said that the commission is working on reducing transaction cost in
primary offering and secondary offering in particular to further
attract more companies to the market.

Market turnover

While the official
turnover of transaction for the month is yet to be released, the market
recorded a turnover of 6.5 billion shares valued at N60.61 billion
during February, in contrast to a total of 10.84 billion shares valued
at N104.1 billion exchanged during January.

Aggregate stock
market turnover between January and February were 17.334 billion shares
valued at N164.7 billion exchanged in 259,427 deals.

In the comparable
period during 2010, the market recorded turnover of 16.14 billion
shares valued at N100.8 billion in 429,306 deals.

Measuring by
turnover volume, the Banking subsector was the most active in February
with traded volume of 4.5 billion shares valued at N37.3 billion, while
the Insurance subsector was second with traded volume of 450.23 million
shares valued at N666.9 million. The Maritime subsector was third with
transaction volume of 218.41 million valued at N390.56 million.

Over-The-Counter
bond market, a turnover of 926.1 million units worth N841.05 billion
was recorded in February 2011, in contrast to a total of 875.62 million
shares valued at N801.134 billion exchanged during the preceding month.

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Barrick strikes deal with Equinox

Barrick strikes deal with Equinox

Barrick Gold Corp
said it had struck a deal to buy Australian copper miner, Equinox
Minerals, for more than C$7 billion, topping a takeover offer by
China’s Minmetals Resources by 16 per cent.

Already the world’s
largest gold miner, Barrick is looking to bolster its position in
copper, a primary industrial metal, while prices are near record highs.

Toronto-based
Barrick said Equinox had agreed to be acquired for C$8.15 a share, an
8.7 per cent premium over the company’s Thursday closing price.
According to Reuters data, Equinox has about 879.5 million listed
shares, which would make the deal worth nearly C$7.2 billion.

Minmetals earlier
this month offered to buy Equinox for C$7 a share, but the Australian
copper miner called that proposal a low-ball bid. Equinox said it
believes the Barrick bid is superior in terms of price and likelihood
of completion.

Barrick said its
agreement for Equinox prevents the Australian miner from soliciting
superior bids and gives Barrick the right to match any higher offers.
Equinox would have to pay Barrick C$250 million to walk away from the
deal, even if it accepts a higher bid.

Equinox has prime
copper assets in Africa and Saudi Arabia that make it attractive to
larger miners. Its Lumwana copper and uranium mine in Zambia is
Africa’s third-largest copper mine by production and the Jabal Sayid
copper development in Saudi Arabia is due to start production next year.

Barrick chief
executive, Aaron Regent, said the deal would improve the company’s
copper exposure in a strong price environment for the metal, which is
used in construction and industrial applications.

“Combined with our
Zaldivar mine and Cerro Casale project in Chile, this acquisition would
position Barrick with significant production growth potential in two of
the most prolific copper-producing regions of the world,” Mr Regent
said.

As part of its
agreement to be bought by Barrick, Equinox will pull its unsolicited
bid for Lundin Mining. Equinox had been trying to take over its rival
copper miner since February but conceded on Monday that its own
shareholders would not likely have supported the deal.

U.S.-listed shares of Barrick slid 1.4 per cent to $54.85 in premarket trading after the announcement.

Barrick said it has
committed cash and financing in place for the transaction. It expects
the deal to add to earnings per share and cash flow immediately.

Morgan Stanley and
RBC Capital Markets advised Barrick on the deal, while CIBC World
Markets, Goldman Sachs, and TD Securities acted as financial advisers
to Equinox.

Reuters

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Nigerian banks explore Africa’s improved trade links

Nigerian banks explore Africa’s improved trade links

Improving
trade links within the African continent is opening new opportunities
for Nigerian businesses to leverage on as commercial activities among
Africans boost the airlines and banking industries.

Jibril
Aku, managing director of Ecobank Nigeria Plc, said trade, which was
formerly restricted to regional blocks, has expanded across the various
trade corridors on the continent.

“Rather
than trade with former colonial masters, we are beginning to see more
trade across regional trade blocks. More countries are trading even
outside their regions, as trade relations improve,” Mr Aku said.

Speaking
on the bank’s regional strategy, Mr Aku said its presence in major
countries on the continent is paying off, as trade between African
countries improve.

“African
economies are still commodity driven. There is a government to
government business between Nigeria and some West African countries
that own refineries. It makes sense to buy refined products from
Cameroun, Ghana, Cote d’ Ivoire, and Senegal rather than from others.
What the government has agreed is that we sell crude to them and import
refined products,” he further said.

Improving trade

He said there is also increase in tourism among African countries.

“People
now go to spend their vacation in some of these countries. But things
will begin to grow faster when raw materials from other countries can
come in as inputs into our factories here,” he said.

African
countries have struggled over the years to improve trade across the
continent and roll back several decades dominated by trade with their
former colonial masters.

The
International Monetary Fund in 1990 classified 75 per cent of countries
in sub-Saharan Africa as having “restrictive” trade policies. This
figure has improved as more African countries open up their economy for
expansion.

Over
the last six years, many Nigerian banks have established presence
across Africa, emerging as major players across sub-Saharan Africa ex
South Africa. Banks like UBA, Access Bank, Zenith Bank, and Diamond
Bank opened subsidiaries in various countries to support continental
trade.

Commodities trading

Ecobank
Transnational Incorporated (ETI), the parent company, has subsidiaries
in 30 countries across Africa. Mr Aku said as things begin to improve,
commodities trading will grow into the bedrock of African economy.

“Because
there are a lot of Africans in the diaspora within Africa, they make
money, which they send back to their families. These are things we
support from the regional trade. Today, movement within Africa is a lot
better”, he said.

Mr
Aku said while the bank works on branch expansion, it was also
exploiting mobile banking as a channel to bring banking closer to the
unbanked population.

“Ecobank
has a licence for mobile banking. So, very soon, you will do your
banking on your mobile phone.We are moving away from brick and mortar
banking,” he added.

He said many Nigerians are embracing alternative channels of banking, as shown by the increasing use of ATM cards.

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#HASHTAG: Pick a spot and start digging

#HASHTAG: Pick a spot and start digging

Ask many
Nigerians, especially a class of young people, why they are not
involved or supporting a particular movement or campaign for change,
and their response is simple: the people working for positive change
are ‘not serious’.

The tragedy for
most of these people is that this knee-jerk reaction to efforts to make
change, is neither supported by reality or facts. They criticize a
project for a lack of thoroughness and then you find that they have not
in fact taken their time to be thorough in their assertions. They
accuse a campaign of lacking vision or depth without even taking the
simple step of perhaps checking the accused website to confirm this
lack of vision. They criticize a petition without even reading its
contents. They dismiss networks as ‘group of friends’ without any
efforts to indeed verify that claim. They nitpick on credibility and
sustainability, without any iota of fact-checking on the matter on
which they so confidently mount a soapbox.

In a sense, it is
nothing unusual. Across the world, apathy is always driven by cynicism
– another form of resignation and helplessness that effectively hides
itself under a garb of worldy wisdom and realism. However, in this
case, this resignation is hardly quiet. It is in fact alive and kicking
– fed by its own sense of justification, even necessity.

It has always been
perplexing to me, for instance, that people who have not lifted a
finger to make a difference, even in the smallest way possible, are the
ones most vociferous in decrying double standards, insincerity, lack of
reach or some other inadequacy in those who have stuck their necks out.
Fortunately, I am not one of those who assume an invalidity of opinion
just because certain people do not have the street credibility of
‘working for change’. However, this peculiarly Nigerian syndrome throws
up a lot of interesting challenges for anyone who understands the
imperative of waking the people up from slumber and cynicism.

Perhaps, column by
column, we might be able to engage the dimensions of this problem. But
a good place to start is with those who make twin accusations – about
people whose work is, in their words, limited only to urban centers and
people who don’t go national. One of my pet frustrations is in fact
those people who seek to invalidate the work of others because their
work is not sufficiently (who measures?) national.

What is really the
imperative, or utility, in a country of 150 million, of any initiative
that seeks, immediately, to reach everyone across the country? Is it
really possible for any development activity to reach the nooks and
crannies of a country when even big-budget telecoms companies, fully
capitalized and with all the relevant human and material resources,
have been unable to do that over the past 10 odd years?

Because our
country is so large and our resources so little, it becomes necessary
to focus on an area of engagement and do that properly. The most
effective development modules appear, to this inexperienced eye, to be
those that are able to focus on their strengths or their ‘catchment’
areas – be they rural women, youth in the diaspora, single mothers or
widows. It only makes sense that people focus on an area of strength
and do the best they can.

In the bid to
‘reach scale’ or ‘go national’, many organizations have become mere
noise organs, stretched beyond capacity. Why, for instance, will a
group, in Ibadan, unable to reach all the local governments of that
state, be hell bent on taking its activities to the north west? What is
the utility in that ambitious goal that is yet to achieve depth in its
area of origin?

How do I think
Nigeria will change? Little by little, milestone by milestone, everyone
working in their corners of influence – that’s the way I think we all
can solve this problem.

Rather than
criticize those working for change in their little corners, why not
take a hoe and start digging where they are not and make the impact
that you so desire to see? That would be the best way to build that
nation we desire.

P.S: Please join
one such initiative by reading the 7-point demand to #ProtectTheCorpers
and signing the petition here:
www.thefuturenigeria.com/protectthecorpers. Let’s do our bit.

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FORENSIC FORCE: ‘Arab awakening’ in Arewa?

FORENSIC FORCE: ‘Arab awakening’ in Arewa?

If there is
anything the repressive Arab regimes of the middle east and north
Africa and the traditional institutions in parts of northern Nigeria
share, it is the deliberate misinterpretation of Islam to hold on to
power while abusing human rights and dignity. There is often a
convenient convergence of culture and the clergy to perpetuate this
fraud on the people. In Saudi Arabia, less than 1,000 princes and
members of the royal family control a country that earns about $1
billion every day when oil prices climb above 100 dollars a barrel.

Similarly, in parts
of northern Nigeria, members of royal houses and those ‘honoured’ with
traditional titles dominate choice positions in government and
elsewhere. Few people know that during the 1979 primaries of the
National Party of Nigeria (NPN), blue-blooded Shehu Shagari was the
preferred choice of the northern elite over ‘commoner’ Maitama Sule.
One of the first politicians to challenge the power of the northern
traditional establishment was the late Aminu Kano who ran for president
under the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP). Kano. Just like the CPC’s
Muhammadu Buhari, Mr Kano never got the backing of that powerful group.

History teaches
that injustice and oppression do not last forever. That is why after
decades of misrule, a new generation has finally mustered the courage
to say ‘enough is enough’. First, it was Tunisia, then Egypt. Yemen is
burning. Syria is on edge. Morocco, Jordan, Algeria and Saudi Arabia
are trembling. The United States conveniently overlooked the crushing
of the pro-democracy movement in Bahrain, while the West has hijacked a
popular movement in Libya with a dubious military intervention.
Whatever form it may take, one thing is clear – democracy is in the
air. In a way, the Arab awakening is also blowing across the north.
True, we have many people who have risen above the system to educate
themselves and confront the challenges of today’s world head on. For
these, education has been the key. Conversely, for a majority of
northerners, illiteracy is all-pervading. It is a sad reflection on the
quality of leadership that even when ‘commoners’ make it to positions
of power and authority, they are quickly absorbed into the elite class
and given traditional titles. In gratitude, these new ‘royalty’ forget
their roots and serve the interests of the traditional establishment.

But like our Arab
contemporaries, a new generation of people in the north is beginning to
realise that a distorted version of Islam has been used to enslave them
for too long; there is nothing Islamic about poverty and illiteracy.
The only leader they could trust is General Buhari in whom they saw a
beacon of hope – that explains their support for the incorruptible
general. He represented a change from leaders that only exploit and
impoverish them; Buhari’s loss resulted in massive voter apathy in the
north and the virtual collapse of the opposition in the governorship
elections, to PDP’s joy. People say: “Why bother voting when nothing
will change?”

When the results of
the presidential elections (under-aged voting and 99.96 percent and
all) came out, the north’s long oppressed and downtrodden saw their
hope of emancipation dashed, triggering the senseless slaughter of
innocent people. Unfortunately, there are no military (or violent)
solutions to political problems. This may explain why the peaceful
change in Tunisia and Egypt succeeded while Libya’s armed rebellion is
festering. If those who engaged in this dastardly act read newspapers,
I would have asked: did the ordinary citizen eking out a livelihood and
minding his business inflate the figures? No religion condones the
killings and the subsequent reprisals. The violence serves no purpose;
it is condemnable and completely uncalled for. It is totally
indefensible and can only be explained, but certainly not justified, as
the result of mindless, directionless mob action. Even Buhari’s
motorcade unknowingly drove into the mayhem and was equally attacked.

Ultimately, for the northern traditional establishment and political
elite, the chickens have come home to roost. Who would have imagined
northern masses approaching the palaces of emirs not to pay homage, but
with intent to loot and burn? Or reports that the Sultan was pelted
with sachets of ‘pure water’? True, a revolt against an anachronistic
feudal system is needed, but that does not excuse killing innocent
people. For genuine change agents seeking to kick out a corrupt and
visionless ruling class, (another plentiful national resource), our
support and edification is needed, not the usual ‘almajiri’ or
‘bloodthirsty’ northerner taunts. The road to liberty is paved with
adversity, but with understanding, the Nigeria of our dreams may yet
emerge.

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