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The biggest challenge facing Nigerians this year
will no doubt be the April elections, at which new state and federal
legislators, new governors (in the majority of states), and a new
president will be elected. In effect, the ‘story’ of the next four
years will be written in the coming months.

The question on the minds of many Nigerians is
this: will the 2011 elections be more credible than the 2007 elections,
which were roundly condemned by local and international observers?

Signs abound that the kind of change Nigerians can
believe in is nowhere in sight. The delegates’ congresses of the ruling
PDP have been attended by protests and violence in several states. Last
week, the Oyo State congress degenerated into a gunfight that claimed
the lives of at least three persons.

A major test of INEC’s readiness to conduct
credible elections will be the voters’ registration exercise, scheduled
to commence on January 15. Direct Data Capture machines are already
being distributed across the country. It is vital that Nigerians keep
an eye on the registration, knowing that there can be no credible
elections without a credible register of eligible voters.

We expect INEC at the end of the registration
period, to formally release a list of all ‘captured’ voters, in time
for errors to be corrected and amendments made well before the
elections. A May 2007 statement released by the Academic Staff Union of
Universities, which observed the 2007 elections, noted that during the
now heavily discredited elections, “[t]here was widespread and
deliberate manipulation of the Voters’ Registers (sic) lists. Not only
were there no display of the Voters Registers (sic) lists in most wards
and local governments; where there was a display, a lot of names were
omitted.” INEC should ensure that there is no room for manipulation
this time around. We need to point out that the electoral commission
should not make the mistake of assuming that electronic data capture
will prevent manipulation – in most cases technology remains
subservient to human will, and the most sophisticated systems are
always at the mercy of manipulation by determined human intelligence.

The theft, a few weeks ago, of a number of these
machines, from a storage facility at the Murtala Mohammed International
Airport, is evidence that electoral manipulators remain as interested
as ever in the electoral process.

Nigerians should remember that in the months
leading to the elections, candidates will hop off their high horses in
a bid to woo the electorate. Governments will back down on
controversial policies, in a bid to avoid alienating voters; and
long-withheld salaries and pensions will be hurriedly paid. Communities
will be flooded with boreholes and culverts and free textbooks and all
manner of heaven-on-earth promises.

At times like this, there is nothing more vital
than a healthy sense of skepticism on the part of the electorate. The
redrawing of electoral maps in the recent past – from the PDP’s loss of
three states in a Southwest it once controlled, to the ACN’s loss, a
week ago, of the Ikorodu Constituency II seat to the PDP – is evidence
that the votes of Nigerian citizens actually count, despite evidence to
the contrary.

The world’s attention will increasingly focus on
Nigeria as April approaches. Nigeria’s population and resource wealth
means that every time we go to the polls, the world will be watching
with bated breath. The fact that the most recent elections in Kenya,
Ghana, Zimbabwe and Cote d’Ivoire all ended in stalemate (with
bloodshed in some cases) will not be helping matters.

When 2010 kicked off, the biggest challenge facing
Nigerians was finding out where their elected president was, and what
the state of his health was. In the absence of leadership, the country
entered the New Year ravaged by fuel scarcity. This year, thankfully,
we have been spared that. On several other fronts however, nothing has
changed. We are still generating less than 4,000MW of electricity,
despite all the ‘reform’ noise of the current administration.

On Christmas Eve, President Jonathan, in a
Facebook message to Nigerians, boasted: “While there was tension in
some parts of the North last Christmas, this Christmas those tensions
have eased.” That same day, a series of bomb blasts tore through Jos,
claiming tens of victims. Since then the senseless violence has erupted
in Maiduguri as well, and the entire country lies in the grip of a
general air of insecurity.

As we wish Nigerians a happy and prosperous New
Year, we’d like to send out a reminder that the happiness and
prosperity of this year, and of the next couple of years, are directly
linked to the kind of leaders we will be electing into office come
April.

Nigeria’s national
print media in this last week has all the hallmarks of holding
politicians to account. It is encouraging to see columnists asking
probing questions of candidates for political office.

In Rivers State
long-time PDP stalwart Dr. Abiye Sekibo announced his switch from the
PDP to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) as a means to advance his
thwarted governorship aspirations. The success of Governor Rotimi
Amaechi presents a major and apparently insurmountable obstacle to Dr.
Sekibo’s ambition to secure the PDP nomination so the simple solution
is to switch parties. Inherent in this play is that Sekibo never really
endorsed the PDP principles. But neither has he bothered yet to expound
the ACN principles.

Herein lies one of
the fascinating aspects of Nigerian politics. If a candidate thinks he
or she may not win under their current party then simply switch
parties. The foundation principles of the party seem to be irrelevant.
Clearly it’s all about securing office and not about party principles
or serving the people.

To justify his move
to a new platform Dr. Sekibo pours cold water on all Governor Amaechi’s
achievements in his first term as governor of Rivers State. Governor
Amaechi has delivered on more projects and reforms in his state than
most governors produce in two terms. But Dr. Sekibo attempts to deflect
attention from Governor Amaechi’s achievements by dismissing them out
of hand.

Dr. Sekibo cannot
rewrite history, which relates his support for Ateke Tom when state and
national authorities were hunting Tom in 2004 and 2005. In fact Sekibo
was harbouring Tom from police in Abuja at a time when Sekibo was the
Federal Transport Minister. Dr. Sekibo has shown himself to be a
political godfather of gang bosses hired to subvert elections and
intimidate opponents. Ateke Tom has accepted the amnesty and professes
to be a changed man endorsing peace throughout the Niger Delta. Has
Sekibo changed?

When Sekibo was
asked about allegations that the chairman of ACN in Rivers State has
sold the chapter to him and adopted him as the uncontested candidate
for the governorship in 2011 he simply avoided the question. The ACN
will do its members a grave disservice by such actions. Members of the
Rivers State chapter of the ACN should immediately launch an
investigation into these allegations.

In the presidential
race former vice president and current presidential aspirant Atiku
Abubakar, made an ambiguous and possibly damaging statement that he may
now regret, when he quoted former US President, John F. Kennedy who
said: ‘Those who make peaceful change impossible; make violent change
inevitable’. Since making the statement Atiku has been besieged with
allegations that he was issuing a call to violence and therein made a
treasonable utterance.

Former military
President Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida leapt to Atiku’s defence claiming
Atiku has no intentions of inciting violence. IBB’s support for Atiku
may simply be a case of not wanting to see a Northern candidate dealt
an electoral blow. Undoubtedly Atiku, who doubtless thought quoting
J.F.K. would be a nice touch and align himself with one his American
heroes, will now privately regret the statement. But the reaction to
the statement demonstrates the close scrutiny that every candidate’s
public statements undergo and the fear of the potential violence that
elections attract.

In Jos the recent
bombings and continuing violence provide a worrying sign of unrest that
some political candidates will feed on in the run up to the April
elections, unless the situation is quickly contained. State governments
in the Middle Belt have largely failed to contain such violence that is
most often attributed to religious clashes. But exaggerating religious
differences is a favourite tool of those wishing to exploit religion as
a political weapon.

The Federal
Government has an overwhelming responsibility to work with religious
leaders to promote tolerance, understanding and harmony. Any political
candidate found to be implicated in promoting such conflict must be
dealt with immediately with the full force of the law.

In the Niger Delta
elections in the current democratic dispensation have been accompanied
by escalating violence which has served to put many locations off
limits to electoral scrutineers and media thus permitting election
fraud on a grand scale. The Federal Government must use the goodwill
established through the recent amnesty process to remove any public
sympathy from promoters of violence under whatever guise. Political
godfathers and candidates associated with supporting or recruiting
gangs, cult groups, vigilantes or like groups must be dealt with
immediately with the full force of the law as advocated in the Middle
Belt situation.

It is only when the
Federal Government shows a zero tolerance for electoral fraud and
violence used to secure political office that Nigeria will see a
significant improvement in the standard of politics and candidates.

Dr Stephen Davis
has served as an advisor to President Obasanjo, Presidential Envoy
under President Yar’Adua and is the author of The Report on the
Potential for Peace and Reconciliation in the Niger Delta.

Starting a new year with a blank slate of mind for inspiration should be a bit worrying.

I remember the hyped up excitement over the New
Year’s days of my youth – the niggling anxiety at not having made a
singular resolution on how to conduct my life for the next 12 months,
the determination to have the New Year meet me celebrating in the
manner in which I hoped to become accustomed.

The pursuit was almost always more exciting than
the actual moment which passed in a split second and was only
noticeable if you made it so. Nothing actually changed. The onus was
still on you to translate that difference into reality, otherwise, it
was still the same sun that rose and the same moon that set on the same
terrain as the day before. No leave no transfer, unless you forced that
belief onto yourself and found the energy to make it so.

Tossing out yesterday’s soup, simply because it
was made in the old year must be a pretty optimistic statement about
hope in the future not to mention the confidence of a well lined purse
ready to go out and buy all those ingredients again without blinking an
eyelid. Who is crazy enough to do that now? Or maybe it requires a
certain state of inebriation, a quality of numbness to achieve.

But 2011 has met us at a familiar crossroads with
travellers of the same terrain hurrying in different directions, some
on foot and others flying first class, some in mourning and some in
celebration, some braced for war and others newly bereft of shelter
facing a world of uncertainty in the days to come.

At the risk of repeating past sentiments, there is
little that is discernibly new looming ahead, and much that is worse
than it used to be. In fact the biggest, newest, thing sticking up
above the morass is the chairmanship of the Independent National
Electoral Commission, towards which we all lift up our eyes in hope.

Some of the issues we wanted to see resolved this
time in 2009 still remain. To pick just three of the most public ones,
there has been no improvement to speak of in the provision of
electricity and water to citizens, and that horrifying picture that
confronts planes heading for the Delta, the miasma of smoke billowing
from the eternal flaring of gas, a resource that other nations gladly
harness to improve the well being of their citizens, is still a
constant, since 1958; LNG 1 to 6 later; Halliburton bribery scandal
later; one millennia later…still burning after all these years.

At some point in the past I said to myself enough
with all this focus on new resolutions, and just keep on with
implementing and improving on the old ones. My concerns were never with
what to do but with how to be. One particular year, I think it was
sometime in the mid eighties I resolved after a particularly rocky year
buffeted by other people’s political aspirations during which I had
been turned into a chess piece by various and sundry characters, that
it would profit me to listen more to my instincts and pay closer
attention to reading people around me.

We are poised yet again on some kind of brink,
defined as usual by uncertainty, but it really depends on the extent of
your inebriation as to whether you are feeling it or not.

Nigeria is a huge country and the problems of
communication within it keep it so, which is probably a blessing for
now. Western commentators tend to notice these schisms quicker than we
do but often do not have the subtlety to read the portents. We do not
boil over as much as heat up to a slow simmer that ends up changing the
consistency of the soup into something else with a different boiling
point and a more lethal concentration of elements.

Against this background a blank slate becomes very
attractive, unmarked by the flares or violence that keep igniting over
the country, free of the question marks over who will win that key
nomination and what the consequences could be, unblemished by that dark
cloud of doubt over what it will take to inspire the citizens to demand
the respect for their leaders that they must first believe they deserve.

The autobiography of Alhaji, Sir Ahmadu Bello,
K.B.E., M.H.A., Sardauna of Sokoto and the first premier of the
Northern Region of Nigeria in 1954, entitled “My Life,” may seem an odd
place to search for guidance in the face of the unfolding Ivorian
crisis. But, as I read about this statesman and a bit of the history of
his part of Nigeria, I realized that it had lessons for 21st century
Africa and that usurper Laurent Gbagbo.

What lessons could so-called “feudal” Africa have
for we “educated” 21st century Africans? Let us start with the art of
losing political power. The Sardauna of Sokoto, a scion of the house of
Fodio, was a descendant of the famed Fulani founder of the Sokoto
Empire, Shehu Usman dan Fodio. That empire, exercising suzerainty over
several Hausa emirates, lasted approximately a century until it
succumbed to the British colonial power in 1914 or thereabouts. How
could the Sokoto Empire last that long? Among other things, by the
subtle exercise of the art of losing political power; no system of
government can endure if it does not have a way of incorporating losers
of political office into its ongoing daily existence.

Listen to the words of the Sardauna of Sokoto:
“When the Shehu died in Sokoto in 1817 he expressed the wish that Bello
should succeed him as Sarkin Musulmi, or Commander of the Faithful for
the Western Sudan, while remaining as ruler of Sokoto in charge of the
Eastern Empire. However, this was not known to the Shehu’s brother
Abdullahi, who was at Gwandu at the time and who thought he would
succeed his brother as a matter of course. No sooner had he heard the
startling news that the Shehu had willed otherwise than a rising broke
out at Kalam Baina, near Gwandu, whose people had gone over to a
rival…but Bello…sent men to his assistance and the revolt was crushed.

“The two rulers met after the victory. Bello was
on his great war-horse, Abdullahi on a mare, as befitted his position
as a learned Mallam. Bello, being the younger man, made ready to
dismount to salute his uncle, following strict etiquette; his uncle
waved him to stay where he was and then bowed in his saddle and greeted
Bello as Commander of the Faithful. Thus by mutual tact the rift was
closed. What might have been a disastrous breach was healed, and ever
since then our two families have lived in perfect friendship and
amity.”

Even if one assumes that this account is
mythical, it illustrates how victors in the battle for ultimate
political power should treat the vanquished and how the vanquished
should behave to elide the distinction between victor and vanquished.
Contrast that behavior with that of Mr. Gbagbo and Mr. Ouattara and it
is clear that Mr. Gbagbo could learn a bit from Abdullahi. It is tragic
that so many so-called “educated” African politicians stand in dire
need of lessons today from Abdullahi.

Sir Ahmadu’s autobiography combines prophetic
streaks with sensitivity to the powerful ethnic identities, which drive
much of Africa’s politics. In congratulating the people of Ghana on
attaining independence in March 1957, he said: “Ghana will have many
hard tests to face. Perhaps the sternest test, which Ghana will have to
face, is the preservation of democracy. It is up to the Leader of Ghana
to resist all anti-democratic influences; and to resist using
undemocratic means to retain control over the country. Nigeria herself
will have to face such a test, time and time again during this century.

“The second test which confronts Ghana is the
danger of internal strife. It will be many, many years before the
peoples of Africa will respect political boundaries higher than tribal
boundaries. For many years the leaders of countries in Africa will have
the difficult task of welding together the peoples of their countries
within the political boundaries which have been artificially decided
upon by the colonial powers within the last hundred years.”

Both Ghana and Nigeria failed those tests for
several years. Mr. Gbagbo continues to fail those tests. Yet, the
resolute actions of Ecowas against Mr. Gbagbo and Cote d’Ivoire suggest
that West Africa’s leaders want to entrench democratic norms in their
region.

I am confident that 2011 will show Nigeria’s rulers abiding
internally by the democratic principles they preach outside Nigeria.
But, Nigeria requires better still. It needs incorruptible leaders like
Alhaji Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto.