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Four persons are feared dead in an attack at the country home of
former presidential adviser on Niger Delta affairs, Timi Alaibe, in Opokuma,
Bayelsa, on Friday. The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) gathered that unknown
gunmen attacked the former NDDC managing director’s home while he was
addressing some of his followers shortly after he returned from Abuja.

A source close to Mr Alaibe said the gunmen shot
indiscriminately, killing four persons in the process. Mr Alaibe picked up a
Labour Party governorship form in Abuja two weeks ago to contest the number one
seat in Bayelsa.

Since Mr. Alaibe indicated his interest for the governorship
race, the Labour Party has become the new political bride in the state with
many PDP strong members defecting to the party. This is the first time Mr
Alaibe, described as the ‘Bayelsa strong man’, is coming to the state after
showing interest in the Bayelsa governorship race for the third time.

The chairman of the Labour Party in the state, Bobou Adou,
confirmed the incident, saying that Mr Alaibe arrived to the waiting arms of
some 6,000 supporters which almost turned into a rally. When contacted on
telephone, the Bayelsa commissioner of police, Aliyu Musa, told NAN that he was
on national duty but confirmed hearing about the attack.

“You know I am on national duty. I am not there but I heard of
it,” he said.

An unconfirmed report said that 14 persons had been arrested by
officers of the Joint Military Taskforce (JTF) in the Niger Delta in connection
with the incident. When NAN called the spokesman of the JTF, Timothy Antigha,
on telephone, he said he was at a meeting and promised to call back.

Sub-Sahara Africa’s largest nation in terms of land mass could
split into two today as expected. The south’s independence referendum was
guaranteed in a 2005 peace deal ending a civil war fuelled by oil, religion and
ethnicity between the north and south, which killed at least two million people
and destabilised much of the region. The north is predominantly dominated by
black Arabs while the south has Christians and animists as its indigenes.

Nearly four million southerners have registered to take part in
the vote to with more emigrating from the North as the vote for separation is
seen as a foregone conclusion. The expected secession takes effect on July 9.

The Sudanese President, Omar Hassan al-Bashir last week on his
final trip to Juba-the capital of the new country offered a hand of peace to
the southerners.

Mr Al Bashir seemed to accept that his nation will split in two
after the referendum and his visit was seen as allaying fears that the northern
government will refuse to let go of the south — which has 70 percent of
Sudan’s oil output. With fears that the referendum could lead to another war,
the leader said he will join in the south’s independence celebrations.

“The preferred choice for us is unity but in the end we will
respect the choice of the southern citizens,” Mr Al Bashir said in a speech to
southern officials. “One would be sad that Sudan has split but also pleased
because we witnessed peace.” Accepting that the result is likely to be
secession,

Mr Al Bashir said he would come and join in the celebrations
after the vote. “Even after the southern state is born, we are ready in the
Khartoum government to offer any technical or logistical support and training
or advice — we are ready to help.” The president was greeted by hundreds of
southerners who chanted “no to unity” and waved signs that read “respect our
decision.” The north’s dominant National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan
People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the biggest party in the south,
strengthened their already strong grips on their respective halves of the
country with overwhelming victories in April elections. Mr Al Bashir is the
only sitting head of state to be wanted by the International Criminal Court,
which accuses him of masterminding war crimes and genocide in a separate
conflict in Darfur.

New confrontations

Key issues remain unresolved as fierce rounds of negotiations
are expected to follow on post referendum arrangements, with oil sharing, a
disputed border and citizenship at the top of the agenda with fears that if
mishandled, this vote could destabilise the whole region.

But many fear conflict may still ignite around the fate of the
disputed oil-rich Abyei region, claimed by both sides and with its own
referendum on whether to join the south or north unlikely to happen at all.
Anti-northern sentiment runs deep in the south where the oils from the Abyei
fields are refined.

Also fighting between the government and rebels from the western
Darfur region has picked up and spread to neighbouring Kordofan region,
spilling over into the south. Khartoum declared the only Darfur rebel group it
signed a peace deal with, a military target and began fighting it alongside
other insurgents. Peace talks in Qatar did not yield good results and Mr Bashir
says the government will not be negotiating in 2011 other than with those
inside Darfur itself, warning that anyone carrying arms will be dealt with
decisively. Tensions are rising between the two militaries as the Darfur’s
fighting moves closer to the south and it has the potential to disrupt the
referendum.

South Sudan, a state of
emergency

Despite the optimism on the birth of the new nation, relief
groups have warned that South Sudan’s weak fledgling administration could be
overwhelmed by people returning home to the newly independent state,
threatening to cause conflict unless more aid is provided.

Millions of southerners fled north to escape fighting during the
decades of conflict. Ahead of the vote, tens of thousands have already sold up
in the north and made the difficult return journey south, drawn by promises of
a better life and driven by fears about their citizenship rights in a divided
Sudan. Hundreds of thousands more are expected to join them before the expected
secession in July. U.S.-based International Relief and Development agency has
warned that they will arrive in a war-scarred south without infrastructure,
healthcare, housing, jobs and often even food. The newcomers, who speak Arabic
rather than southern languages, will lack farming knowledge and will want land
allocated to them.

According to Richard Owens of International Relief and
Development agency “those issues will continue to build causes of conflict that
we want to avoid out there.” “There aren’t enough resources and the
institutional capacity of the Government of South Sudan at the state, county
and below level is not there and we think there needs to be a lot of emphasis
put on assistance at the village level and tribal leadership level to help
them.” Relief advocacy group, Refugees International said in a report that
South Sudan was “already in a state of emergency due to extreme flooding,
ongoing inter-tribal conflicts, and overall low state capacity.”

“Some returnees may ultimately migrate back to city centres,
since communities in the south and border areas are ill-equipped to accommodate
new arrivals and provide basic services,” it said. “It is important that
humanitarian organisations establish a presence in remote areas of south Sudan
and maintain a critical mass in staffing.” South Sudan’s government —
dominated by former guerrilla fighters — faces a task building a country and
extending its authority over rural areas plagued by deadly tribal clashes, food
shortages and devastating floods.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson, the Obama
administration’s top diplomat for Africa, has said that Washington would help
the new nation “succeed, get on its feet and move forward successfully,
economically and politically.” “We think that it will reflect the will of the
people, that it will occur on time, peacefully and in a well organised manner,”
Mr Carson told reporters. He said the United States is ready to help south
Sudan to achieve full independence, a tantalising prospect for an impoverished
and landlocked region that is one of Africa’s budding oil producers.

The United States has led pressure on the Khartoum government of
President Al-Bashir not to impede the secession vote. Mr Carson said Washington
was “extraordinarily pleased” by Mr Al Bashir’s statements on a trip to the
south Sudan capital of Juba that Khartoum is ready to let the south go.

Two bye-elections
have been held in Lagos since 2007, and the Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) won both; first against the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in 2009,
and then, against the Action Congress of Nigeria in 2010.

Isiaq Olawale of
the Action Congress (now renamed Action Congress of Nigeria) had won
the Ibeju-Lekki Federal Constituency election in 2007 but was
disqualified after being convicted for perjury. The bye-election in
June 2009, was between PDP’s Okanlawon Soniyi and AD’s Jamiu Eletu.

However, in
reality, the contest was between PDP and AC, which lent its political
apparatus to campaign for the AD’s candidate. In fact, campaign rallies
for Mr Eletu were always dominated by AC’s members including former
Lagos State Governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. But the PDP won the election
which was visibly marred with violence. The AC accepted the result, but
blamed the loss on the incompetence of the Alliance for Democracy.

About 18 months
later, the ACN tasted another defeat at the polls in Ikorodu where it
lost the bye-election for the Ikorodu II constituency to PDP’s flag
bearer, Olugbenga Akinwale Oshin. In contrast to the party’s acceptance
of the 2009 bye-election result,ACN is challenging the outcome of the
Ikorodu election, claiming the election was marred with violence.

For the record,
however, the election was largely peaceful, though not devoid of
financial inducement. Only one case of snatching of ballot box was
reported in Ginti village and the result from the village was rejected
as INEC cancelled the election.

Voters Register

Ikorodu II
constituency has eight wards with about 49,000 registered voters
according to the 2007 national register which was used for the
election. It is even difficult for INEC to say the number of registered
voters in the constituency. For instance, in Ijede I Ward, the list
shown to NEXT by INEC’s spokesman had 4,245 registered voters but the
list with the collation officer, Autin Ituedo, had 3,960 voters. Only
two wards, Igbogbo II and Bayeku/Oretan had the same number of voters.

In addition,
several people could not vote because they did not find their names on
the register. At Methodist Primary School, Igbogbo Ward 1’s polling
unit 3, NEXT counted about 40 intending voters who suffered this
fate.”This is the place where I registered and voted in 2007 but now I
can’t find my name here,” said Kafayat Akanmu, who spoke to NEXT in
Yoruba.

Few determined
voters had to check at several wards before finding their names but
many, after a search at about two or three units, went back home
without voting because the pasted registers are being torn in some
polling units.”This will cause problem in 2011. Imagine if there is no
movement of okada, how will I be able to move round the units to locate
my name,” said a voter, who identified herself as Sekilola, who finally
found her name after checking the fourth polling unit.

A percentage of
total votes cast against the total number of registered voters showed
that less than 20 percent of potential voters turned out to vote.

Disgruntled electorate

It is not clear if
the anomalies occasioned by INEC’s imperfect voters register swayed the
result of the election in favour of any of the candidates. What is
clear, is that the PDP won five out of the eight wards, all of which
are rural areas. The result, largely reflect the indignation of the
rural dwellers against the ACN.

“We hear of so
many wonderful things that Fashola is doing. We even see it ourselves
anytime we travel to Lagos,” said Kareem Alabi, a resident of Imota,
who agreed to speak to NEXT after so many others would not even want to
talk about ACN. “But we don’t see any of that here or can you see
anything that ACN has done here?” he asked.

From
investigation, the people’s decision to cast their votes for the PDP
was not so much about a deep affection for the party but a way of
expressing their resentment at what they termed selective development
in the state.

The ACN would have
scored a huge point if the government had listened to the plea of Sanai
Agunbiade (Ikorodu I Constituency), which he made when the deceased
lawmaker, Rotimi Sotomiwa, was about to be buried.

Mr Agunbiade
appealed that the deplorable Bola Ahmed Tinubu road, the repair of
which Mr Sotomiwa fought for, should be done before his burial.”We also
want to benefit from good things but all our appeal have gone
unrecognised,” said an Ijede resident, Johnson Olaiya. “None of the
projects that Fashola started in Ikorodu have been completed.” The
projects being referred are: the ongoing Jetty project from where
vehicles, goods and passengers can be ferried across to Lagos Island,
thereby reducing congestion on the road; the construction of a
Magistrate Court and Palace. The completion of the Jetty is earnestly
being expected by the people as this will directly affect their
economic activities.

However, it is not
entirely the fault of the state government as it is that of the local
governments and the ministry of rural developments who neglected
Ikorodu constituency.

“Sotomiwa fought
for the police station they now have in Ijede and that is why ACN has
more supporters there now,” said Mr Olaiya, adding that if the
government will just implement people-oriented projects in the
division, the ACN may well win back the peoples’ hearts.

The Lagos State
government has embarked on various road rehabilitation across the
state, with the state’s Public Works Corporation taking advantage of
the dry season.

However, the
rehabilitation efforts are mostly measures designed to temporarily
soothe commuters’ woes, which raises the question – ‘Why not embark on
outright reconstruction?’ Virtually all the respondents interviewed
said they were grateful to the government for remembering that they
were still in existence. Yet, they are the same people that have been
made to bear the brunt of all manner of taxes and levies from both the
state and local governments.

Some of the roads
have degenerated into death traps due to lack of maintenance, like the
handler of the rehabilitation works on the Ayobo-Ipaja Road rightly
said. The entire stretch of the road becomes a whirlwind of dust
particles, with no rains to moisten the ground. Anybody with some kind
of respiratory ailment journeying through that route during this dry
season could easiliy choke to death from inhaling the dust.

For some residents,
the ongoing road works are some sort of “eye service”, intended to woo
the electorate, since the elections are just around the corner. The
suspension of the tolling on the Lekki-Epe expressway quickly comes to
mind. As it is now, the Lagos State governor, Babatunde Fashola, needs
to do much more than putting a temporary stop to the tolling plan if he
wants to bag an appreciable number of votes from Eti-Osa and Epe local
governments in the next elections.

And a recent
revelation by Ganiyu Johnson, the special adviser to the governor on
works and housing, that more roads within the state are going to be
concessioned has not helped matters. Incidentally, some of the roads
Mr. Johnson mentioned that would be considered for concessioning to
private firms – the Berger-Isawo, Ajegunle-Agboyi-Ogudu, and
Mende-Opebi Roads – are already existing roads that the concessionaire
would, at most, rebuild and upgrade; a move that may result in another
Lekki-Epe Road tussle. More has to be done to convince a people who had
been driving on a road free of charge to start paying over a N100 on
the same road. What had become of their taxes?

Proponents of the
concession arrangement have argued that it is now the way to go,
especially as the government cannot bear the cost of infrastructure
provision and maintenance alone. True enough. As a matter of fact, the
private sector plays an integral role in the physical and economic
development of any city. But something seems to be wrong in the way the
state is integrating the sector into road matters.

The government may
be justified in tolling roads if it has fully developed alternative
means of transportation – rail, water, ground, and even underground.
This will afford those who cannot afford a particular means to go for
cheaper alternatives.

Many places in the
city are in urgent need of alternative access routes. For instance, a
concessionaire could construct a new highway which can serve as
alternative to the ever congested road to Ikorodu town. Given the
population of the area and considering the number of people intent on
moving into such area because of the land space available there, any
concessionaire is bound to make profit from such road.

Commuters from
places like Lagos Island would then be left with the single choice of
spending four hours or more between Anthony and Ikorodu on the
free-of-charge Ikorodu Road or paying their way through an alternate
route and getting home in far less.

In all, the poor
state of many roads, coupled with the blocked drains, arguably
constitute a dark patch on an otherwise commendable administration in
Lagos. This needs to be tackled as a matter of urgency and not
political convenience, in the current dry season.

The people do not only deserve a change, they need to see the change and benefit from it.