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INEC accepts polling units discrepancies

INEC accepts polling units discrepancies

The Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) has acknowledged posting
non-existent polling units ahead of elections this year, but said weeks
of verification of the widely-questioned 120,000 units it claimed
earlier, produced only a “minimal discrepancy”.

The commission’s
Chairman, Attahiru Jega, said yesterday that the screening unearthed 28
fake polling units-a far cry from the 28,000 analysed for NEXT in a
October, 2010 report, by WangoNet, an advocacy group.

Tracking the huge
number of Polling Units on the commission’s website, WangoNet said its
examinations showed that the electoral body had extra 28,000 Units than
it claimed, with the disparity forming a significant portion of INEC’s
N87 billion budget last year.

Details of the
analysis showed many polling stations were enumerated multiple times,
officials having possibly upped the figures in manner that appeared to
be outright falsification.

Nearly 8,000 units
were counted twice, thrice, or substantially more, before INEC arrived
at the round figure of 120,000, the report pointed out.

Some of the worst
cases noticed were two schools in Edo State- Ivbiyeneva Primary School
in St. Saviour ward and Ologbosere Primary School in Ugbekun ward, both
counted 40 times.

The listings
predate Mr Jega’s tenure. While reacting to the errors before the
report was published by NEXT, his Media Aide, Kayodu Idowu, denied any
fraudulent intent, saying the commission was pressed for time and as
such, based its projections on unverified available records.

He said the site
was being upgraded and promised that the accurate number of polling
booths will be ascertained during the deployment of the Direct Data
Capture machines.

Addressing the 36
Resident Electoral Commissioners yesterday in Abuja two days away from
a crucial Delta State governorship rerun, Mr Jega admitted the fake
posts existed but noted that the verification exercise turned up only
28 phony voting posts across the country.

“I thank you all
for the time and dedication you invested in that process,” he told his
commissioners. “It shows clearly in the outstanding outcome of the
process. Currently, the discrepancy is minimal; in fact 28 to be
precise.” He said the new figures will be promptly updated in the DDC
machines and on the mapping of the polling units on the Google maps.

Delta’s re-run as litmus test

The meeting on
Tuesday is the last for the commission’s highest echelon as officials
rally final preparations for the Delta State rerun on Thursday-seen as
a litmus test for the Mr Jega led INEC, and national voters’
registration on a week away. Mr Jega listed fresh steps adopted by the
electoral body as it races to preserve a national goodwill for his
administration, and to disperse lingering doubts whether the commission
can be different from its well discredited past.

“Nigerians see the
Delta rerun as a barometer for gauging how things have either changed
or remained unchanged in INEC’s conduct of elections,” he told the
commissioners.

Part of the plans,
he said, prominent Nigerians may be appointed as returning officers to
help “shield officials of the commission from unwarranted accusation of
bias.”

New security features too have been introduced on the ballot papers
while the existing voters’ register have been “cleaned up”, he added.
Further, the number of corp members to be drafted as Assistant
Registration Officers have been pruned from 360,000 to 240,000.

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Over 31,935 security officials for Delta re-run

Over 31,935 security officials for Delta re-run

The Nigeria Police have deployed 22,600 conventional
and 2,835 mobile policemen to monitor the re-run election slated for
January 6 in Delta State.

Also, no fewer than 6,500 officers of the Nigeria
Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) will be deployed to work with
other security agencies to ensure that the re-run election succeeds.

Audu Abubakar, the Deputy Inspector General of
Police, “B” Department (Operations), said no fewer than six officers
would be deployed to man each of the polling centres in the state to
forestall violence.

“The Federal Government is determined, INEC is ready
and we are given a matching order to be here and ensure that the
election is not only credible but free and fair,” Mr Abubakar said. “We
have deployed 22,600 officers and men of conventional police and 45 PMF
units of 63 officers per unit from various squadrons. My call to all
the non-governmental organisations, foreign and local election
observers and good spirited individuals is for them to collaborate with
INEC officials and the security agents.” The police boss, who had a
closed door meeting with the 14 gubernatorial candidates contesting in
the re-run election, said it is in the interest of all the candidates
to shun violence.

Great Ogboru, the Democratic People’s Party candidate told reporters that the DIG underscored the seriousness of the election.

“The meeting with the DIG was quite instructive; he
made us to understand that there was a national seriousness attached to
the elections and that it was a litmus test. We were reminded that
thuggery and violations of the Election Act will not be tolerated,” Mr
Ogboru said.

The state PDP Chairman, Peter Nwaoboshi, also said the party was satisfied with the security arrangement.

Joining forces

The NSCDC Commandant in Delta State, Amos Andekin, said the command would deploy 3, 500 of its officers,

while 1,000 officers each from Edo, Anambra and Bayelsa States would join his men.

He explained that two officers would be assigned to
each perceived quiet polling units, while more than two officers would
be deployed in volatile units located in areas such as Warri and Asaba.

The commandant explained further that he had appealed
to the Bayelsa State command of NSCDC to place 300 officers on
stand-by, and another 50 each from Edo and Anambra.

Mr Andekin, however, said that the deployment of the
officers would be a challenge, claiming that though the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Delta State had said it would
not provide any other logistic support apart from feeding the officers,
mobility will be one of the major challenges because the corps does not
have vehicles with which to transport the officers to the units they
are deployed to.

Luka Ikpi, Sector Commander of the Federal Road
Safety Corps (FRSC), also said that 130 officers of the command would
be on ground to guarantee smooth flow of traffic. He said that the
officers would also ensure that the movement of vehicles was restricted
until after the re-run election.

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Police in Uyo out to arrest gynaecologist’s murderers

Police in Uyo out to arrest gynaecologist’s murderers

The Police Public
Relations Officer for the state command, Onyeka Orji, made the
statement while speaking with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Uyo
on Tuesday. He said that some politicians have been invited for
interrogation in connection with the alleged murder.

Mr Akpaudo was
reportedly killed on New Year’s Eve by yet to be identified gunmen. Mr
Akpaudo was until his death, a medical doctor with the State Hospital
Management Board in charge of Maternity Unit at St. Luke Hospital, Uyo.
He was also a House of Assembly aspirant for Mkpat Enin constituency in
the 2011 elections.

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Stocks resume rally on economy, oil gains

Stocks resume rally on economy, oil gains

U.S. and European
stocks resumed their rally in the first trading session of 2011 on
Monday on stronger global manufacturing data, while oil rose as the
outlook for growth increased optimism about demand.

U.S. Treasuries
prices fell as the data – including a pickup in U.S. manufacturing
growth last month – suggested the economic recovery continues to gain
momentum, encouraging investors to take on more risk.

The Institute for
Supply Management said U.S. manufacturing grew for a 17th straight
month, following news of faster growth in European manufacturing as
well.

In another recent
positive report, China’s factory inflation slowed in December, removing
some pressure from the Chinese Central Bank to slow down the economy.

The three main U.S. stock indexes jumped more than 1 percent on Monday following the data.

“There is a lot of money in cash, a lot of money in bonds that would like out of bonds.

It’s only natural,
with the economic improvement, it’s finding its way to equities,” said
Stephen Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco.

The big test for the U.S. economy lies on Friday when the government will publish its widely watched nonfarm payrolls report.

The Dow Jones
industrial average, DJI, jumped 124.19 points, or 1.07 percent, to
11,701.70, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX rose 16.98
points, or 1.35 percent, to 1,274.62. The Nasdaq Composite Index, IXIC,
gained 49.31 points, or 1.86 percent, to 2,702.18.

In Europe, the
FTSEurofirst 300 index, FTEU3, of top stocks unofficially closed 0.9
per cent higher at 1,131.59 on a broad rally, led by construction and
industrial shares. Trading was thin, with markets closed in Britain and
parts of Asia.

The MSCI
All-Country World Index, MIWD00000PUS, rose 0.9 percent, after
finishing 2010 with gains of 10 percent, back to its strongest level
since September 2008.

Emerging market stocks jumped 1.3 percent, according to another MSCI index, MSCIEF.

Oil extended its
rally on optimism the global economic recovery was gaining momentum.
U.S. crude futures CLc1 rose 0.8 percent to $92.11 a barrel.

Euro starts lower

Worries about the
euro-zone debt crisis weighed on the euro. The euro started the first
trading day of 2011 lower and analysts said it is likely to extend its
downtrend as investors avoid the single currency due to nagging
concerns about the euro-zone debt crisis.

“The euro is
trading with a heavier tone. I think traders are trying to cut back
their exposure on the euro as volumes normalise and given continued
problems in the euro zone,” said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at
Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.

The euro EUR= was
down 0.12 percent at $1.3361 from a previous session close of $1.3377,
after hitting a session low around $1.3251.

The dollar rose
0.15 percent against a basket of major currencies, according to the
U.S. Dollar Index .DXY. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar JPY= was
up 0.63 percent at 81.66.

Also supporting dollar gains was a rise in U.S. Treasury yields resulting from investors’ renewed appetite for risk.

The benchmark
10-year U.S. Treasury note US10YT=RR was down 22/32 in price, sending
its yield up to 3.3712 percent. Gold prices held steady.

Reuters

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Ivorian rains promise high cocoa yield

Ivorian rains promise high cocoa yield

Unseasonal rains in
Ivory Coast’s key cocoa-growing regions last week will support the
development of the main crop as the dry dusty harmattan wind continues
to blow gently, farmers and analysts said on Monday.

Top grower Ivory
Coast is in the dry season, which also brings the harmattan south from
the Sahara, and, if harsh, can kill flowers and small pods on cocoa
trees.

However, farmers reported a mild harmattan for now and said rain in several regions was a boon for the crop.

“We are very happy
with the rain. It gives us lots of hope for the quality of the beans
that we will harvest in February and March,” said Lazare Ake, who farms
near Soubre, at the heart of the cocoa belt.

“I think there will be lots of cocoa this year. Last year, there wasn’t so much rain,” he added.

Ivory Coast’s cocoa
regulator projected output of 800,000 tonnes during the main crop, down
100,000 tonnes from last season due to black pod disease.

But analysts and
farmers said the forecast is low and said good weather would push
volumes above year-ago levels. Exporters told Reuters on Monday cocoa
output was running near even with last year’s, even while a political
crisis grips the country.

One analyst working for an industrial plantation in Soubre, a western region, reported 14 mm of rain over the week.

“The harmattan has
been blowing for three days in our region. It is not very strong for
the moment, but there is a very dry wind,” the analyst added.

Other regions

In the southern
region of Aboisso, an analyst reported 53 mm of rain over the week,
adding that growing conditions for cocoa remained good despite the
harmattan.

“Weather conditions
have been excellent all year. Over the course of 2010, we recorded
2,005 mm during 123 days of rain. This is better than (in 2009). There
won’t be any problems with the cocoa. The production will be very
good,” the analyst added.

In the
centre-western region of Daloa, which last year accounted for 358,000
tonnes of Ivory Coast’s 1.2 million tonne crop, farmers reported one
good downpour, which they said would help small pods develop during the
dry season.

But farmers said they needed to monitor the wind, given that too much dry weather can lead to dangerous bush fires.

“We have had some
rain. It is good for the small pods. But during the harmattan, we worry
about the bush fires, which have destroyed the plantations,” said
farmer, Attoungbre Kouame.

Similar growing
conditions were reported in the coastal regions of San Pedro and
Sassandra, in the southern regions of Agboville and Divo.

Reuters

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Operators optimistic on Exchange’s performance

Operators optimistic on Exchange’s performance

Some operators at
the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) have expressed optimism that the
nation’s capital market will perform better this year than last year
because more money is expected to be in circulation during the year.

Tunde
Oladapo-Dixon, chief executive officer, StockPicks Consulting, a stock
broking firm, said the NSE should witness a “fair market in 2011
because the year will be a consolidating year that is higher than the
consolidation recorded last year.” Mr Oladapo-Dixon said, “If you look
at 2009 and 2010, a lot of policies, which have not failed, were made
to mitigate the challenges in the market. The monotony of the banking
industry in the market was diluted when Dangote Cement was listed. The
building materials now take a better percentage in the market in terms
of capitalisation.” “We’ll see a better market in 2011 , the banks can
no longer run the market down again. And with all the policies still in
place and the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) coming to
play in the first quarter of the year, the market will fare better,” he
said.

He added that with
AMCON kicking off, the banks will do their business as usual and that
will lead to more money in circulation. “And when money is in
circulation, what is expected is that there will be a lot of trading in
the market. Although the market will still oscillate due to the past
feelings that investors have about the system, but am still very
optimistic that the market will be better in 2011 but not to the levels
recorded during the boom era,” he said.

Strengthening regulations

Albert Edun, an
executive member of the Nigerian Shareholders Solidarity Association,
said what is expected in 2011 is the enforcement of the guidelines and
regulations by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Mr Edun said,
“There were some improvements in the market towards the end of last
year and such can be only be sustained if the SEC appoints a credible
head at the Exchange.” Bola Oke, a finance analyst at WealthZone
Company, an investment management firm, said the fact that the year is
an election year, it is expected that “more money will be in
circulation and some of the funds should flow to the capital market for
investment.”

Meanwhile, the NSE
closed the year on positive sentiments, ending the last trading week
with aggregate score of 0.33 per cent gain, while month-to-date and
year-to-date performance stood at a 0.34 per cent decline and a 18.87
per cent increase respectively for the year 2010.

The market
capitalisation, during the last trading week, appreciated by N26.13
billion to close the year at N7.91 trillion as against appreciation of
N78.23billion recorded in the previous week to close at N7.88 trillion.

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A delisting done in bad taste

A delisting done in bad taste

Since the
announcement of the proposal to delist the Nigerian Bottling Company
(NBC) from the daily official listing from the Nigerian Stock Exchange,
a consensus amongst investors, is that the move is in bad faith and ill
timed.

One of the key
questions is why does the board think this is a good idea? Nobody has
given any good reason that warranted the decision. Let me state
clearly; this is not illegal, our laws provide for it, but there is
also a requirement that regulators must approve such moves to make sure
that minority investors are fairly treated. The fairness of the timing
of this proposed delisting is initial grounds to question this
transaction. Everyone knows that in a recession when the stock market
is down, most stock prices are adversely affected even when there is no
fundamental issue with the particular stock. NBC is in this category, a
good stock with the right fundamentals affected by the current
environment of low prices occasioned by low economic activities.

Many in investors
see the move, as profit motivated resulting from the need to take
advantage of the current low prices which puts the minority investors
at a disadvantage. The majority investors already have controlling
interest; they already have 66.4 per cent, why do they want 100 per
cent control? And what other benefit are they going to get other than
to make and keep all the profits.

It is also bad
timing because of the position of NBC as one of the top 10 quoted and
listed companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Why after over 30
years of being listed on the Exchange does the company suddenly want to
be delisted at a point the market is in crisis? What message is NBC
sending to other listed companies? What about the Nigerian investing
public? Is the message demonstrating confidence? If they have a
complaint that needs to be addressed, this is not the way to do it.
Further, the speculation that they may be aggrieved by the recent turn
down of their request to be exempted from the quarterly requirement to
put out earnings forecast, as now required of all quoted companies, is
not tenable. This is a requirement that even its parent company is
complying with in other jurisdictions wherever they are listed, to
expect different treatment here in Nigeria is taking us for granted.

Stock valuation

There is also the
issue of the valuation for the stock and the proposal to buy out the
minority investors at N43 per share. The so called premium based on the
current market price should be ignored. Value investors know that the
stock market is not a place for corporate value discovery, but a place
to bet on corporate prospects. N43 offered to investors to buy them out
is a ridiculous price, given the fact that NBC is actually one of the
few stocks that has generated sufficient momentum this year to inspire
an upward trend for its price in the new year. NBC on its own has some
of the best features as a stock that investors look for. It is what can
be described as a consumer monopoly; unique brand that sells anywhere
it is marketed and all year round. This is the reason why investors
stood by it a few years ago, even when it was badly run, they were
content with the consistency and predictability of its earnings. That
is why any valuation that uses the present market price is not a good
starting point.

The current market
price is not reflective of the value of the stock. This has been proven
by the current run up on the stock price even after the announcement
had been made. We should either look to the earnings stream to predict
the future price, or the book value of its assets after a proper
revaluation of all its fixed and intangible assets, which must include
the brand value of its present name Nigerian Bottling Company. If they
don’t agree that there is any value in the name, I will urge the
Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) to insist that once they do the
divestment, since they are no longer a Nigerian public company, they
should drop the Nigeria in its name, for whatever name they so chose.

We at Partnership
Investment Plc and most analysts have talked to put the price of the
stock well above the N43 offer. A great majority of the analysts think
investors should get more for their stock if they sell at all. They put
the value at anywhere between N67, an earnings basis valuation and also
closer to its peak price during the last bull market, or around N105
using its book value before revaluation.

Meanwhile,
regulators should carefully examine their application whenever they
make one and ensure that no insider dealings have taken place, prior to
making the decision public. NBC board must also know that by making
this low tender offer, they have also put themselves in play and should
watch their back.

Mr Ogiemwonyi is the MD/CEO Partnership Investment Company Plc, Ikoyi, Lagos

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High expectations for banks in 2011

High expectations for banks in 2011

With
the transfer of N1.036 trillion worth of nonperforming loans (NPL) to
the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON), there is optimism
that the banking industry will play a leading role in boosting economic
growth this year. Nigerian banks have been bogged down by huge NPLs
which have limited their ability to lend to the economy and led to
massive job cuts in the sector.

According
to analysts at FSDH Securities Limited, a financial services and
advisory firm, subject to having a successful general election and
smooth transmission of power in the country, the economy will do better
this year. “Looking at the reforms in the financial industry and the
policy initiatives of the Federal Government, we are inclined to
believe that the financial market and the economy will enter a phase of
real growth in 2011,” stated its weekly financial market report.

Following
the sack of nine banks’ chief executives in 2008 and the injection of
about N627 billion to save the institutions from collapse, the
financial sector has been wavering. This resulted in the near crash of
the capital market. However, with the asset company taking over the
banks debts, there is confidence that the economy will rebound.

Profitable and rewarding

AMCON
last Friday signed an asset purchase deal with 21 banks that saw the
transfer of the banks’ NPLs to AMCON, thus freeing the banks from the
burden of carrying such huge debts in their books. The banks were
issued with bond certificates covering the amount of NPLs in their
books. The bond was issued to the eligible financial institutions for
AMCON to acquire the eligible banks assets comprising almost all the
NPLs in the nine banks rescued in 2008 as well as margin related NPLs
from the non rescued banks.

The
initial bonds will be replaced with longer tenured bonds to bring the
sector back to minimum capital adequacy levels and bring net asset
values to zero before new acquirers will come in to inject sufficient
further capital to meet minimum capital requirements.

AMCON
executive director, finance and operations, Mofoluke Dosumu, said the
initial consideration bonds were the first instrument rolled out to
absorb the non performing loans in the banking system.

“Within
the first quarter of 2011, we will be swapping these with another set
of tradable bonds. We will be issuing more bonds as we buy up more non
performing loans, which is up to N3 trillion in total.” Interventionist
regulator

Analysts expect that funds will be directed to critical sectors of the
economy, in order to achieve growth. Razia Khan, Regional Head of
Research, Africa, at Standard Chartered Bank, UK said tighter
regulation will be required to prevent a repeat problem. “While few
policy changes are anticipated at the outset, this raises the
possibility of a more interventionist regulator, looking to boost
lending to strategic sectors such as power and industry, and to fulfil
broader financial inclusion aims,” Ms. Khan stated.

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FICTION: A game of chance

FICTION: A game of chance

Baba had barely
finished speaking when a metallic white Land Rover screeched and
stopped abruptly in front of his pools office. Cakes of potopoto
splattered all over the vehicle gave it a mix of white and brown. The
words, Joint Military Task Force, written in black, were etched on both
sides, on the door. Men, women and children stood in front of their
houses waiting to see what the soldiers inside the vehicle were up to.
What were they going to dramatise next? they wondered.

While the men
wore only shorts, as they chewed pako and spat on the ground, their
distended bellies thrust forward, the women’s wrappers were flung
across their shoulders, leaving a substantial part of their breasts
exposed and only their nipples covered. Children between the ages of
eight and ten, some wearing only hole-ridden shorts and others briefs,
clung to their mothers.

Suddenly, five
heavily built men in mufti, wielding AK-47 rifles, jumped out of the
van and rushed into the pools office. One of them kicked the black
results board with white stripes, that rested on a rusty, brown pole in
front of the plastered but unpainted bungalow. The board fell down, and
the man looked at it and hissed. “Eight draws! This Kora people self!”
he drawled and stepped in, his boots thudding the floor.

“Where are they!
Where are they!” the soldiers bellowed in unison; as they rushed into
the first room, in which were only a table and a bench. They entered
the second room, which had two tables, two benches and a wire-netted
counter behind which Baba always sat to attend to customers. On the
counter was a paper on which Baba wrote his weekly offering to his
customers. That, he believed, would guarantee their constant patronage;
even though he had never for once gotten all of them right. The
inscription, written in bold, black ink, read:

Bankers Of The Week

XXX 1 XXX

XXX 4 XXX

XXX 8 XXX

“Stand up and hands up!”one of the men commanded. “If you move, I move you!”

“What have we
done?” Ogedengbe asked, perplexed. A bottle of ogogoro, his coupons, a
Bic biro and papers on which he had solved some calculations, were on
the shaky table in front of him. Ogedengbe never tucked in his shirts
and always kept bushy beards. A scrawny man who taught mathematics at
Emore Grammar school, he had a head for figures. Ogedengbe believed
mathematical calculations were the only way to forecast draws, the only
way to fortune. “Draws are fixed!”he always said with bloated
confidence.

“Are you asking us
what you’ve done? What gave you that boldness, that temerity?” the man,
who had spoken earlier, shouted and slapped Ogedengbe. “Nonsense!” He
said and hissed. “You criminal! Don’t you know that we are uniformed
men? Next time you will learn never to challenge uniformed men again!”
His broad, round face was contorted, as though he had a permanent
frown. His belly burged out, forming an oblong shape like the stomach
of a pregnant woman on the verge of delivery.

“Ahhhhhhhhhh! You
slapped me? You slapped me?” Ogedengbe screamed, covering his face with
his palms. “You slapped me? Officer, you slapped me? The Chief Justice
of the federation must hear this! Justice Kutigi must hear this!” He
raised up his face and stretched his lean neck, thrusting it forward
like an agitated duck. The mathematics teacher suddenly remembered the
school where he taught, where hordes of students waited patiently for
him in the classroom while he spent the whole day in Baba’s pools
office. If my salary was good enough, I wouldn’t be here receiving a
slap from this man, he thought. He remembered the bills lecturers at
the University of Ibadan always posted on their office doors: My boss
is a comedian. The wages he pays are jokes and the wages my boss pays
me can’t take me home, they read. He wanted to retaliate but the sight
of AK-47 rifles discouraged him.

Many in Ogedengbe’s
school believed he was out of his mind. Whenever he was teaching he
always revealed his examination questions to students. “On that day
Alpha Beta must come!” he would say. Because he was always in Baba’s
pools office forecasting draws by solving mathematical calculations, he
regularly missed his classes; as a result, he often had arguments with
Mr Mgbunwe, the school principal. Mr Mgbunwe once withheld Ogedengbe’s
salary for a particular month because of what he regarded as the
mathematics teacher’s “nonchalant attitude to work.” Ogedengbe, on his
part, refused to release the examination results of his students until
the salary was paid. He always wrote on the blackboard, backing it, and
erased whatever he had written with his bare hands. The mathematics
teacher had dreams, but felt the only way to actualise them was to take
the opposite stance. He was fond of saying he would turn the foundation
of scientific knowledge upside down, just like the way Karl Marx did
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel’s philosophy. He believed that someday he
would prove that the earth was not spherical but flat, that the sun
revolved round the earth, that the weight of a body was not equal to
the force acting on it, that the more things changed, the more they
remained the same.

“Foolish man!
You’ll know what you’ve done by the time you get to the station.
Foolish man. That’s how all of you go about kidnapping innocent
citizens, planting bombs everywhere, bursting oil pipelines and seizing
flow stations. All of you are criminals and saboteurs,” the officer
said; and a hush fell like a withered leaf. The commander stared at the
three civilians one after the other, as though waiting for their
reaction.

“OK boys! Search all of them thoroughly and leave nothing. Do you hear me?’

“Yeees siir!” the
soldiers answered and, immediately, turned towards Baba, Ogedengbe and
Obidi. They frisked their clothes, and searched their pockets inside
out. One of the soldiers brought out a brown, defaced metal detector
from his trousers’ pocket and ran it all over their bodies, including
their eyes, ears and buttocks as though they hid explosives there.

“Make sure you scan them very well o. These bloody civilians are capable of anything o,” the commander said.

“Yeees Siir!” The
soldiers continued their search with furious intensity. They looked
under the tables, benches and inside the counter to see if anyone was
hiding there.

“Are you sure there is nobody in the ceiling?” the leader asked.

One of the soldiers
squatted suddenly, while the one who was holding the metal detector sat
on his shoulders and was raised up. The two soldiers moved sluggishly
around the two rooms, as the one holding the scanner ran it over the
unpainted ceiling.

“Make sure you scan
the ceiling thoroughly,” the leader said again hoarsely and glanced
around the room. He touched the unpainted ash-coloured walls and felt
the hardness. With both hands he raised his trousers up to the lower
part of his pot belly and sniffed, taking two deep breaths, as though
he could perceive the smell of ammunitions. “Make sure you scan
thoroughly.”

The soldier,
satisfied that no ammunitions lurked in the ceiling, asked the other to
squat. As the latter was bending down, a loud boom! erupted out of his
anus. “Sorry Sir!” he squirmed. This is not one of those bombs. It’s
just a natural gas!” But the leader pretended as though he didn’t hear
any sound, as though his junior didn’t talk to him. And the former
disembarked; both of them heaving breathlessly. And immediately the
soldier wielding the metal detector ran it all over the men’s bodies
again.

“What have we
done?” Baba asked, speaking through his nose. A man of few words, Baba
was hard of hearing and often had to be spoken to repeatedly to hear
what others were saying. And he was fond of speaking louder than
others. His hair stretched out like Kenneth Kaunda’s; and a
centre-parting ran through it.

“What have we done, eh? What have we done that you are beating us like criminals? Don’t you know these are my customers?”

“Are you asking me?
Are you asking me?” the leader asked. “Don’t you have respect for
uniformed men? You will know what you have done when you get to the
station.”

“Are we going to
camp?” Baba asked, perplexed, as he stole a glance at last season’s
record he was using to forecast draws just before the military men
barged into the office. Though Baba believed draws were fixed, he
didn’t believe they were derived from calculations. Rather, he relied
on working out systems from past records. The older the system, the
more he believed in its reliability. To him the secrets of unlocking
systems were derived from keys. “This system is many many yeaaars”! he
always said, with glee, whenever he discovered a new method of
unravelling draws.

“Oya, start moving to the van! One… Two…Three!” the leader commanded.

“Please let me lock up my office,” Baba said and reached for a bunch of keys on the table in front of him.

“Which office? Do
you think you have any right to lock up your office? Do you think we
came here to have fun. There is no sweetness here. You want me to allow
you to lock up your office, as you said, so that you could take up your
ammunitions and fire us? My brother, there is no sweetness here,” the
leader retorted and pushed Baba to the door connecting the two rooms.

“I am just a
businessman!” Obidi pleaded hoarsely. “I’m supposed to travel to Lagos
today to collect my container at Apapa Wharf!” Obidi’s massive frame
belied his young age. The youngest of the three, he was in his forties;
yet was bigger than Baba and Ogedengbe put together. His face was round
and large like a mask, his nostrils those of a gorilla and ears a
chimpanzee’s; and no neck connected his head and shoulders. Obidi
believed neither in systems nor calculations but in forecasting papers.
“Bookmakers like Willy Ehi Obinyan have made forecasting draws easy.
Then why rack your brains?” he always asked his colleagues. His
favourite forecasting papers were Pools Telegraph, Shoot Pointers and
Harold King Pools Guide.

“If you are a
businessman, as you claim, what are you doing here? Doesn’t Henry O the
leader of your group claim he is a businessman?”

“Who’s Henry O. I don’t know any Henry O,” Obidi said.

“I didn’t come here
to bandy words with you. You don’t even have respect for uniformed men.
If you are not afraid of me, are you not afraid of my uniform… and my
gun? OK boys, take these men to the van!” The leader carried the
Aromatic Schnapps bottle containing the ogogoro mixed with some barks
and helped himself to it. “Hmmm!” he winced, smacking his lips, his
forehead furrowed. “This is hot!” he said. “What is the name of this
paraga? Pepper soup? Manpower? Iba? Jedi?” He turned the bottle around
and tried to ascertain what was inside; but the brownish liquid he had
just drunk looked greenish and syrupy inside.

“I hope this
paraga will cure my backache, malaria, jedi jedi and lethargy. And I
hope it will give me power to fire my woman tonight,” he said and burst
into laughter.

Power? Ogedengbe thought, and grimaced.

“Oya let’s go, boys!” the leader commanded.

But no sooner had
he dropped the bottle than the other soldiers took turns to help
themselves to the ogogoro. “Oya, let’s go! But we want power, too.
Medicine is not meant for only one person. It must go round. Oya, let’s
go!” the last to take a shot repeated.

The three civilians were herded to the waiting van, their hands still raised up.

It was already past
midday. The onlookers, who had been standing in front of their houses,
riveted their attention on the vehicle; as the three men entered the
back, followed by four soldiers; while the commander, still smacking
his lips, sat at the passenger’s seat. Immediately the four soldiers
entered the van, they pointed their guns aimlessly outside. The driver
speedily reversed the vehicle, the tyres making creaking sounds, and
leaving deep marks on the road. The van zoomed past the onlookers, some
of whom raised their hands up in wild jubilation. “Up JTF!” “Up Just
Terrify Them,” “Up JTF!” they hailed. But the soldiers, still pointing
their guns outside, looked at them menacingly.

The drive from
Irri Road to Isoko District Council Road, where the station was
located, was quiet but rough. The driver, a lanky man with three bold
and deeply etched tribal marks that extended from the two ends of his
mouth to his neck revved the van intermittently, bumping on potholes
that dotted the road. He was wore a white perforated t-shirt that had
turned brown from excessive perspiration and lack of a wash. When the
driver negotiated the bend connecting Irri Road and Emore Road, passing
by the old Post Office and Odhomo Bookshop, Ogedengbe sighted some
students of Emore Grammar School in their white and blue uniform. He
stretched out his long neck to see whether the students could identify
him and, perhaps, report his plight to the principal, but the vehicle
zoomed past them. His mind was racing, too. They ought to be in their
classrooms, he thought. And suddenly, he realised that he had left his
jotter and biro on the table.

Why were the
soldiers taking them to the station? For execution? What crime did they
commit? Did they have any moral justification to arrest them? Though
Ogedengbe wasn’t sure of their fate, he believed one should always be
ready for the unexpected; for life was a game of chance; and out of the
unexpected always came life-changing events.

“My business is
suffering terribly!” Obidi said and hissed. The three civilians, who
were sitting on one side, beside a soldier, looked at one another.
Obidi, frowning, thought Ogedengbe and Baba would talk with him. They
didn’t, because they were enmeshed in their thoughts. Baba observed
that this was the only time they did not argue over whose method of
forecasting draws was more reliable. Ogedengbe always claimed that the
secret of unearthing draws lay in numbers; Baba believed that draws
were hidden in records, and that you could only get them by studying
weekly fixtures and arriving at the keys. Obidi was of the view that
those two methods were too tedious. “Why waste your time when you can
easily get the ready-made draws from papers? Anyway, I don’t have time
for such rigorous exercises. My business will suffer!” he always said
during those arguments. Yet, Ogedengbe believed that his colleagues
were both living in the past. “Mine is more reliable and modern because
it is tedious. And when you solve a mathematical problem, you arrive at
a definite answer,” he often submitted. But Baba never believed that
because something is difficult, that made it authentic. “Pools betting,
like life, is as simple as ABC. You don’t need to rack your brain to
achieve results. When you look at the weekly fixtures, there are some
matches that are natural draws. These are what they call local derbies.
If Manchester United is playing with Manchester City, for instance,
that is a natural draw,” Baba would say. At such moments, Baba would
hold his frameless glasses close to his eyes with his hands and look
above them, Ogedengbe would bang the table repeatedly, while Obidi
would rummage through the papers hurriedly in search of draws. In spite
of the hot arguments, and their differences, the three friends believed
that draws were fixed. They also nursed a secret dream of hitting the
gold mine someday and becoming instant celebrities. The legends about
how some pool stakers had hit the jackpot and became fabulously rich
always went round the pools offices in Oleh. One of the greats was
Patrick Osakwe, a staker who became wealthy, and later became a pools
promoter and owner of Flash Pools Limited in Benin City. Osakwe was so
rich that he later studied Political Science at the University of
Benin, graduating with a first class honours degree. He, a three-time
senator also had a degree in Law; and was always in the news,
commenting on national issues. Another former staker who became a
celebrity was Willy Ehi Obinyan. Obinyan later became a successful
bookmaker. The mansion he built with proceeds he got from the pools,
was located near the popular Ojodu-Berger bus stop in Lagos.

As the vehicle
moved, the driver continued revving, taking twists and turns; and
zooming past men, women and children riding bicycles, as they twisted
their waist up, down, up, down on their way to farms that rusty oil
pipelines transversed. Immediately he negotiated the bend linking Emore
Road and I. D. C. Road, Ogedengbe stole a glance at the building
housing the Delta State Library, hoping he could see the librarian or
any of the staff. But they were all inside the long bungalow that
tailed inwards. The library, whose walls were already peeling off like
human skin in the Harmattan, had a deceptive appearance. It looked
small from the outside. But anyone who entered inside, would see that
the adult section, which led to the children’s, was a long stretch
bordered by polished book shelves on one side and tables on the other.
Ogedengbe could count the number of times he had visited the library.
But each time he went there, he always read the Encyclopedia
Britannica; a habit which Obi, one of the staff, never liked. When
Ogedengbe got to the library one Monday morning, he went straight to
the first shelf, which contained reference books, and picked one of the
encyclopedia. And as soon as he sat down to read, Obi walked over and
asked him to leave. Ogedengbe remonstrated and a heated argument, which
attracted other reader’s attention ensued. Asked why he ordered the
Mathematics teacher to leave, Obi, a lanky man who never tucked in his
shirt, said Ogedengbe was fond of reading ‘big books,’ Yet, Ogedengbe
did not leave until he finished reading. While he was leaving the
library, Ogedengbe walked up to Obi, who was sitting behind the counter
at the entrance and said, “I can bring down this building and build it
up in three days.”

Immediately they
arrived at the Police barracks, which was opposite the Isoko South
Local Government Secretariat, the soldiers jumped out of the vehicle
and, aiming their rifles at the three civilians, commanded them to
alight one after the other. “Oya, move straight to the station!” One of
the soldiers shouted. The three civilians moved quietly, followed by
the four soldiers; while their leader, his pot belly pulling him
forward, was at the rear.

“Where are you taking us to?” Ogedengbe asked, boiling with indignation.

“Will you shut up your dirty mouth before I waste you here?” a soldier shouted back.

“What have we done? I can’t take this any longer. Justice Kutigi must hear this!”

“If you like, you
can wait for Justice Kutigi. Is he your uncle? Before that Justice
Kutigi will come and rescue you, you are already a dead man. Foolish
man!”

“Did they say they were taking us to the station? I thought they said they were taking us to camp,” Baba said loudly.

“Which camp?” Obidi
spoke loudly so that Baba could hear. “It doesn’t matter where they are
taking us to. What I am concerned about is that they should release us
quickly so that I can go and face my business. My business is
suffering.”

“Your business?” Ogedengbe asked, stealing a glance at Obidi. “We might not come out of this place alive!”

‘A Game of Chance’ continues next Sunday in The Lagos Review.

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Sweet talk

Sweet talk

Drop that mask
Good friend,
Let us talk

About what happens
When the Niger meets the Benue
In the land of tangled shoals

About pawpaws
Sinfully ripe
Swinging, swinging, in the wind

About the viscous virtuosity
Of the tropical snail
Forever pouting its heavenly lips

About the spectacular banana K-10
King,yellow peril
In the cave of the mouth

About the rooster’s henward dance
In the fraying fringes
of December’s forest

About the mortar
And the pestle
bout the Ya-Ya
About the Yo-Yo

Drop that mask
Beloved Time to laugh and . . . .

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