Archive for nigeriang

DANFO CHRONICLES: Cursed are the peacemakers

DANFO CHRONICLES: Cursed are the peacemakers

People generally
avoid fights, especially in public transport. The idea of becoming a
spectacle, throwing lame punches while others watch in glee, makes most
people break out in sweat. But conductors are not like that.

They are, as a
rule, a quarrelsome lot though rarely do their rows come to blows. In
danfos, threats are usually thrown around like confetti, and on many
occasions I have seen shirts removed in readiness for combat – as two
gladiators prepare to slug it out – only for the contest to end in a no
show. Somehow, these things fizzle out without a punch.

Conductors have
come to seem like shadow boxers who enjoy the idea of a roforofo fight
more than the fight itself. They have an uncanny ability of knowing
when a hustle will require muscle, and they frequently withdraw from
the fray before that. But in the interim, you get to see a lot of
spectacle, a lot of noisy entertainment – if you like that sort of
thing. It reminds me of Shakespeare’s theory of life as a tale told by
an idiot: “full of sound and fury”, signifying nothing. Or in the
inimitable words of Fela, “na shakara.”

Once in a while,
however, you get the real deal. There is still “sound and fury” all
right, but there is also what the police might call an “attempt to
cause grievous bodily harm”. Such was the case that day at the Ojota
bus stop when our conductor took on the conductor of another bus that
rammed into us while we were slowing to a stop.

Now that I write
this, I realise how very rare are the moments when I have heard a
conductor’s name called aloud, either by the driver or anyone else. It
was always some crazy pseudonym or the generic, “ogbeniyi”, this
fellow. Immediately the accident happened, our conductor jumped down
and approached the other bus whose conductor was also spoiling for a
fight.

“I hope you know that the biggest fool has nothing on you, you and that your useless driver,” he said.

The other
conductor, a little older and a little fatter, removed his shirt and
announced to the gathering that, “it will never be good for anyone who
attempts to separate this fight. His generation till kingdom come shall
contain only imbeciles and never do wells. Cursed shall be the mouth
that says ‘stop’ and cursed shall be the hands that attempt to separate
us. This is a fight to the death and let death only be the referee.”

The crowd was taken
aback by the curse, and by the vehemence with which the man pronounced
the words, looking from one side of the gathering to the other while
rolling up his trouser legs. Our conductor added a postscript: “All of
you have heard. Anyone whose life is damaged should come between me and
this fool; anyone who is a bastard should intervene in this fight.”

By now, the buses
had emptied and some had gone on their way. Yet the crowd of onlookers
continued to grow. It was a real brawl, a roforofo fight; the two
conductors threw wild punches with few actually connecting, all the
while cursing like prostitutes.

The crowd cheered
every punch, even those that missed their targets, and every time
someone tried to intervene, he or she was quickly told of the curse
hanging over all peacemakers, and advised to desist.

This went on for a
long while and it soon began to get boring, as the steam seemed to have
gone out of the combatants. They clung to each other and wouldn’t let
go, breathing heavily. Suddenly, one of them, I think it was our
conductor, said, “But what kind of people are you? Are you people going
to watch us until we kill ourselves?”

The fatter conductor turned to us and begged, “Please separate us o. All curses have been withdrawn now and forever, I beg!”

The crowd burst into laughter and someone moved to end the drama.

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Watery grave, murky law

Watery grave, murky law

After Osama bin Laden’s corpse was slipped into the North
Arabian Sea, the White House’s chief counterterrorism adviser declared that the
United States had buried him “in strict conformance with Islamic precepts and
practices.” According to a senior military official, the body was washed,
shrouded and dispatched with a funeral prayer.

Despite its best efforts, the U.S. government still has much to
learn about the intricacies of Muslim funerary law. Its strictures are more
nuanced, and perhaps also more flexible, than it imagined.

According to the Quran, the origins of burial stretch back to
the dawn of humanity. Cain, full of remorse after killing his brother, was
inspired by a ground-scratching raven to hide the naked corpse in the earth.
Islamic law insists on this ritual as the ideal one.

But medieval jurists did recognise that travellers and
merchants sometimes died at sea. Shafii, the founder of a Sunni school of law,
recommended that ships either keep the body on board until they could reach
land or sandwich it between two wooden slabs and tow it with a rope.

Other jurists prescribed different actions, depending on the
circumstances. If the ship was far from shore and the body began to decompose,
then it was permissible to deposit it in the sea, weighted with metal or stone
so that it would sink to the bottom. Jurists hoped that sailors, while lowering
the deceased, would turn his face toward Mecca. Releasing the corpse in a
floating coffin was also an option, if there was a good chance that it would
wash up on the shores of a Muslim country, where the body would receive last
rites on land.

In general, however, Shariah permits burial at sea only in
extraordinary circumstances. So some interpreters of Islamic law have rushed to
denounce what was done with bin Laden’s body. But the implication that bin
Laden deserved an ordinary Muslim burial doesn’t necessarily comply with that
law. Islamic jurists have always made important exceptions to burial rites,
depending on how the deceased lived and died.

Largely because of the exigencies of war, those who died on the
battlefield were traditionally not entitled to standard rites. In accordance
with Shariah, their corpses may be deposited in communal graves. There is no
need for prayers, or for washing or shrouding their bodies; immediately upon
death martyrs’ bodies are miraculously regenerated, and they receive silken
robes in paradise.

Medieval jurists also made exceptions for highway robbers,
violent rebels and unrepentant apostates, who were on occasion dismembered and
decapitated, their remains left on display. Shafii argued that just rulers
ought to treat the bodies of executed rebels respectfully and that they could
administer last rites. But many jurists disagreed, arguing that they were
undeserving of such honors.

These exceptions matter because bin Laden’s religious status is
a matter of contention among Muslims. On one end of the spectrum are Muslims
who consider him an outsider to Islam: if not quite an apostate, a terrorist
whose right to an official Muslim prayer is debatable at best. (In 2005 the
Islamic Commission of Spain essentially excommunicated Bin Laden, arguing that
he should not be treated as a Muslim.) They must find it as perplexing as I do
that the U.S. government granted the man it identified not as a Muslim, but as
a “mass murderer of Muslims,” the dubious honor of a quasi-Islamic funeral.

On the other end are Muslims who believe that bin Laden is now
enjoying the blessings of martyrdom. From a theological perspective, it matters
little to them how Americans on the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson disposed of
the corpse.

Which is all to say that bin Laden’s burial was doctrinally
irrelevant to some Muslims, and confusing to others. Most of the rest feel
uneasy. Perhaps the United States could not have avoided that. But a deeper
understanding of the history of Islam’s sacred law could have prevented us from
seeming so at sea.

(Leor Halevi, an
associate professor of history at Vanderbilt University, is the author of
“Muhammad’s Grave: Death Rites and the Making of Islamic Society).”

© 2011 The New York Times

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Much ado about a unity government

Much ado about a unity government

As the Peoples
Democratic Party (PDP) and its presidential candidate, Goodluck
Jonathan, work to give shape to the next federal administration, one of
the issues that have occupied public discourse is the possible
participation of politicians from other parties in the new government.

This would not
necessarily disguise the massive lead that the PDP has over the other
political groupings in the country as shown by the last election.
Matter of fact, it is to be desired that the president will not limit
his appointments to only people from his party, as the country sorely
needs the best in manpower that it can get at this point in its
development. It is apparent that a large number of these skilled people
would not be members of the PDP, despite the large size of its umbrella.

But the arguments
of those advocating a government inclusive of opposition politicians,
often grandly called a government of national unity, are that it will
foster a sense of togetherness among politicians and reduce the
propensity to make mischief. After all, as an American president
succinctly explained this arrangement, it is better to keep your
opponents in your tent and have them pissing out than have them outside
pissing in.

Of course, more
critical Nigerians are likely to see the call for a unity government by
some politicians as little more than a self-serving move to ensure they
enjoy the benefits that can be acquired by holding public office. This
situation is reinforced by the fact that some of the political parties
actively worked for Mr Jonathan’s victory at the polls – either by
choosing not to present candidates against him and campaigning
energetically for his election. They will expect the president to
recognise their efforts and reward some of their members with public
appointments – that is, after all, part of the political game.

There is, however,
a sense that Nigerian politicians have a warped idea of what a unity
government really should be and, despite the shrillness of its
leadership from time to time, the Action Congress of Nigeria appears to
have its heart in the right place in its loud opposition to membership
of any such government being put together by Mr Jonathan.

Unity governments
are ideally put together in times of national crisis – to make sure all
political voices speak as one against identified threats, be they local
or international. There could also be such a government in a situation
where the ruling party does not have sufficient numbers to drive its
policies through and may, thus, be forced to operate within a
coalition, as is happening in the United Kingdom at present and in
India.

Even then, this type of government is often associated more with parliamentary systems than with presidential ones.

In any case, the
victory of Mr Jonathan and his vice president Namadi Sambo is emphatic
enough that they could govern without recourse to any other political
parties. As it happens, the PDP also enjoys a comfortable majority in
the National Assembly and should be able to get its programmes through
the legislature. So why does the PDP feel it must involve politicians
from other parties in governance when it is quite likely that it cannot
satisfy the appetite for high office among its own members?

Then there are the
other considerations that drive the argument for unity government:
there are the pleas for so-called African magnanimity; there is also a
sense of the need to assuage guilt. In 2007, buffeted by cries of
stolen mandates amidst a contested election, the late president Umaru
Yar’Adua felt driven to bring in politicians from other parties,
especially the main opposition party at the time, the All Nigeria
Peoples Party (ANPP). Although the presidential candidate of that
party, Muhammadu Buhari, kicked against it, other leaders in the ANPP
overruled him and embraced Mr Yar’Adua’s offer.

On paper, a
national unity government should strengthen the polity. But it has the
perverse effect of weakening opposition, which is a critical part of a
democracy. As one politician rightly said, if politicians want a
government of one party, why do they contest elections on different
platforms in the first instance? Parties in hock to ruling parties
might lose their identity and vibrancy – and stand the risk of being
tarred with the brush of failure should the main party fail to deliver.

The PDP should bring in talented individuals from other parties if
it must. But, really, the party’s politicians should govern on their
own so that Nigerians can judge the party on the basis of their
competence and should they be found wanting, vote in another set of
politicians from another party, the next time around.

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FOOD MATTERS: Big fat discourse

FOOD MATTERS: Big fat discourse

The first time I
read that taking a tablespoon of coconut oil in the morning, and
another in the evening will help you lose weight, I did a double take.
Many truths about food still take me by surprise because I realise I’ve
been indoctrinated into so many contradictions about what I eat. The
oils in my cupboard aptly reflect my confusion. I have a keg of corn
oil that I use to sauté potatoes and fry plantains. I have some canola
oil that I sometimes stir fry vegetables and fry rice in. I have some
olive oil in a beautiful rectangular bottle that I am pretty sure is no
virgin. There’s a cloudy greenish Lebanese version of olive oil that
somehow feels more authentic, but you just never know.

I have coconut oil
from my secret West African country source that is the real McCoy;
dirty, yellow, explosively aromatic and beautifully flavoured. Last but
not least is my 50-litre jerry can of palm oil from Ikom: foggy dusty
orange in the face, not red, with a mild smooth flavour and no sediment
whatsoever.

Anyone who wants to
test my generosity can come and ask for some palm oil. My answer will
be an unflinching no. On the other hand, I wish someone would come and
ask for some canola and corn oil so that my conscience and cupboard
will be free of these refined, bleached overrated containers of toxins.
I believe I bought them under a strong misconception that they were the
best oils to eat. For about eight months, I have eaten mostly palm oil
that constitutes the base for my ogbono and okro soups. And I have
anxiously watched for the weight gain that palm oil is rumoured to
cause. I haven’t yet felt that uncomfortable prodding of the waistline
of my jeans. I am still waiting.

In the interim, I
have read that virgin coconut oil and palm oil are two of the best oils
to eat. Virgin coconut oil can be heated up to 170 degrees and not
oxidize; this in layman’s terms means it doesn’t turn into a form that
harms the body. Likewise palm oil can be heated up to high temperatures
without its chemical properties adversely changing. If there is
something nutritionists worth their salt agree on, it is that the body
needs fat, but of the right kind. Never mind those supermarket brands
touting “No Fat” this and that. The right kinds are those as naturally
extracted as possible keeping their most natural forms. When these oils
are ingested they actually help the body to burn the bad kinds off.

Virgin, unrefined
coconut oil has innumerable benefits. A large percentage of its
saturated fats are a special kind called MCTs that do not require the
liver and gall bladder to be digested; this means instant energy and
less toll on the liver. Half of the saturated fats in palm oil are made
up of palmitic acid that supplies energy, is easy to digest and does
not cause a rise in blood sugar or insulin. The medium chain fatty
acids of coconut oil lower cholesterol, improve diabetic conditions and
reduce the risk of heart disease. They also help us (wonder of wonders)
to lose weight.

Coconut oil
contains high levels of immune enhancing lauric acid, which is also
found in breast milk. Lauric acid has been proven to be antimicrobial
and antiviral, boosting the immune system. The work of biologist Mary G
Enig is seminal as regards coconut oil. Enig claims that the body uses
an ingredient in the oil to make a disease fighting substance called
monolaurin.

Our beloved palm
oil is rich in beta carotene, and Vitamin E antioxidants. It supposedly
contains a healthy balance of all kinds of fats in a combination
similar to that of fat tissue in the bodies of most people on an
ordinary diet. It is naturally resistant to rancidity, does not contain
toxic trans-fatty acids contained in refined hydrogenated oils and has
a comparatively higher content of antioxidant nutrients that protect
the body against cellular aging, cancer, arthritis and Alzheimer’s
disease. Its Vitamin E content is said to prevent against heart disease
and strokes, as well as lowering cholesterol.

On the other side
of the fence are reports generated by the likes of the United States
Center for Science in the Public Interest that claim that palm oil
promotes heart disease because of its high content of saturated fats.

My research
continues. I hope no one takes this as license to drown some bokoto,
abodi, shaki, roundabout and goat meat in palm oil soup, accompany it
with semovita and a bottle of coke and claim that Yemisi Ogbe said palm
oil is good for you!

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Nigerian banks’ performance on the upbeat in 2011

Nigerian banks’ performance on the upbeat in 2011

The Nigerian banking industry is expected to put up a good
showing this year in the aftermath of apprehension over recently concluded
national elections. According to a report by Renaissance Capital (RenCap), a
global institutional finance company, the economy will receive a boost but
warned that inflation will remain high.

“Nigeria’s inflation will remain stubbornly high in 2011, owing
to structural factors including poor infrastructure, high commodity prices and
an expansionary fiscal policy. Given the strengthening inflationary pressures,
there is room for additional hikes of the monetary policy rate to beyond 7.5
per cent.”

Tabula rasa

The report stated that Nigerian banks are starting on a clean
slate following the clean-up of their books by the Asset Management Corporation
of Nigeria. It added that strong capitalisation and ample liquidity provide a
positive background for the banks to do well in 2011.

It however cautioned on the inherent risk in the system, especially
macro and political risks, particularly with oil remaining a key factor for
Nigeria’s budget and revenues.

“At the sector level, post the recent crisis, regulation will
need to prove itself through the cycle before we are fully comfortable,” it stated.

RenCap added that the macro economic environment is a function
of how the government decides to tackle underlying issues. With ongoing reforms
in that direction, the report cited the power, agriculture, oil and gas sectors
are identified as areas where the banks can leverage.

“Loan book concentration risk forces banks to look beyond these
sectors, and the fast-growing telecoms sector has been an area of much bank
focus, while the power sector, and potentially the agriculture sector, are seen
as areas of potential growth going forward.”

The report estimates that the services sector will remain the
largest contributor to real GDP (gross domestic product) growth in 2011.

“On our estimates, owing to the potential for the telecoms
sector to continue expanding exceptionally rapidly, and in light of sustained
strong wholesale and retail trade growth.”

High dividend payout

According to RenCap, unlike other emerging markets where banks
pay little out as dividend due to need for growth and safety, Nigerian banks
pay as much as 40 to 60 percent of their earnings as dividend.

“This reflects the dividend demands of a large proportion of their historic
local investor base. Hence, in a growth environment like Nigeria, coupled with
current dividend policy, sizeable CARs (Captial Adequacy Ratio) can be eaten into
relatively quickly.” Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) is a ratio that regulators use to watch bank’s health, specifically bank’s capital to its risk. In measuring the soundness of a firm, two types of capital are measured: tier one capital, which can absorb losses without a bank being required to cease trading, and tier two capital, which can absorb losses in the event of a winding-up.

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Ghana inflation dips in April, rate hold seen

Ghana inflation dips in April, rate hold seen

Ghana’s annual inflation rate fell to 9.02 percent in April, the
country’s statistics office said on Wednesday, the second dip in a row that
reinforces prospects of a rate hold decision by the Bank of Ghana this week.

Analysts said the surprise fall from 9.13 percent in March might
spark calls for a further rate cut, but for now, the consensus was for the
prime rate to be held at 13.5 percent and some analysts warned that inflation
could take off again soon.

Fuel price hikes pushed inflation higher in January but the
national statistics office said the stabilisation of fuel prices, coupled with
the abundance of food and a relatively stable exchange rate, had led to dip in
April.

“This is a good reading, especially given the inflationary
pressures stemming from high oil prices and a relatively weak currency,” said
Lisa Lewin, an analyst at London-based Business Monitor International.

“It looks almost certain that rates will be kept on hold this
time around, but as soon as inflation edges back into the double digits, we can
expect a hiking cycle to commence,” she added.

Separately, the statistics office said the Ghanaian economy grew
7.7 percent in 2010. Analysts see that accelerating to around 13 percent this
year thanks to oil revenues. An expected announcement of first quarter 2011
growth was put back to June.

Food for thought

The Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee is due to announce
its decision on interest rates on Friday. Ahead of Wednesday’s announcement,
seven out of ten banks polled said they were expecting the rate to be unchanged
at 13.5 percent.

“The immediate impact of this will be to set people thinking
…whether with the Prime Rate at 13.5 percent since last July there is any
probability of a late-cycle rate cut,” said Standard Chartered analyst Razia
Khan.

“While the good news on inflation will certainly boost the case
of those who have been arguing for a rate cut, our call is still for the Bank
of Ghana to keep interest rates on hold.” Mr Khan cited possible volatility in
the Ghana cedi, concern over Ghana’s fiscal deficit, a trend towards higher
inflation and improved credit access for the private sector as reasons for
holding the rate steady.

Non-food inflation was almost three times that of the food group
in April. High fuel prices, hikes in public sector wages and the influx of oil
revenues since Ghana started pumping oil last year have all raised the
prospects of steady increases in the pace of inflation over the year.

Reuters

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Nigerian banks’ performance on the upbeat in 2011

Nigerian banks’ performance on the upbeat in 2011

The Nigerian banking industry is expected to put up a good
showing this year in the aftermath of apprehension over recently concluded
national elections. According to a report by Renaissance Capital (RenCap), a
global institutional finance company, the economy will receive a boost but
warned that inflation will remain high.

“Nigeria’s inflation will remain stubbornly high in 2011, owing
to structural factors including poor infrastructure, high commodity prices and
an expansionary fiscal policy. Given the strengthening inflationary pressures,
there is room for additional hikes of the monetary policy rate to beyond 7.5
per cent.”

Tabula rasa

The report stated that Nigerian banks are starting on a clean
slate following the clean-up of their books by the Asset Management Corporation
of Nigeria. It added that strong capitalisation and ample liquidity provide a
positive background for the banks to do well in 2011.

It however cautioned on the inherent risk in the system, especially
macro and political risks, particularly with oil remaining a key factor for
Nigeria’s budget and revenues.

“At the sector level, post the recent crisis, regulation will
need to prove itself through the cycle before we are fully comfortable,” it stated.

RenCap added that the macro economic environment is a function
of how the government decides to tackle underlying issues. With ongoing reforms
in that direction, the report cited the power, agriculture, oil and gas sectors
are identified as areas where the banks can leverage.

“Loan book concentration risk forces banks to look beyond these
sectors, and the fast-growing telecoms sector has been an area of much bank
focus, while the power sector, and potentially the agriculture sector, are seen
as areas of potential growth going forward.”

The report estimates that the services sector will remain the
largest contributor to real GDP (gross domestic product) growth in 2011.

“On our estimates, owing to the potential for the telecoms
sector to continue expanding exceptionally rapidly, and in light of sustained
strong wholesale and retail trade growth.”

High dividend payout

According to RenCap, unlike other emerging markets where banks
pay little out as dividend due to need for growth and safety, Nigerian banks
pay as much as 40 to 60 percent of their earnings as dividend.

“This reflects the dividend demands of a large proportion of their historic
local investor base. Hence, in a growth environment like Nigeria, coupled with
current dividend policy, sizeable CARs (cash reserve ratio) can be eaten into
relatively quickly.” The CAR is a measure of a firm’s ability to pay its
short-term obligations by comparing the firm’s cash reserves and liabilities.

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Stock market performance remains shaky

Stock market performance remains shaky

Mixed performances have continued to characterise trading
activities at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as market indicators maintained
unsteady movements.

The NSE market capitalisation and the All-Share Index, the two
market measuring parameters, which depreciated by 0.16 percent at the close of
trading on Monday, went up by 0.17 percent yesterday after appreciating by 0.68
percent on Tuesday.

Stockbrokers at GTI Capital, a stock broking firm, said the mix
trading performances could be attributed to the activities of profit takers in
the market.

They said the market opened the new week on a negative note
despite the increased activities on the floor of exchange. “Early hours of
trade revealed moderate activities savoured with investors willingness to
consolidate positions on some handful of fundamental stocks. However, selling
pressure emerged toward the closing hours pushing indicators down,” they
explained.

Meanwhile, they said recent gains on some blue chip stocks have
been driving the positive performance in the market.

Market rebounds

The market capitalisation of the 194 first-tier equities closed
yesterday at N8.140 trillion after opening the day at N8.126 trillion,
reflecting N14 billion gains. About N55 billion was gained on Tuesday after the
market lost N13 billion the preceding day. The All-Share Index gained 45.24
units yesterday on the previous day’s figures of 25,432.93 basis points, to
close at 25,478.17.

At the end of Wednesday’s trading, the number of gainers closed
higher at 361 compared with the 32 recorded on Tuesday, while losers also
closed higher at 22 against the 19 recorded the previous trading day.

Costain West Africa topped the gainers chart for the day with
4.97 percent price appreciation, while Northern Nigeria Flour Mills topped the
losers chart with 4.98 percent depreciation.

Guinness Nigeria yesterday released its unaudited results for
the third quarter ended March 31 2011. The financial results show a turnover of
N89.801 billion as against N80.576 billion in the comparable period of 2010.
Profit after tax stood at N17.562 billion compared with profit after tax
ofN13.754 billion in 2010.

Also, the board of directors of Julius Berger yesterday proposed
a dividend of N2 per share to its shareholders.

Exchange commission

In the meantime, Daisy Ekineh, the executive commissioner in
charge of operations at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said
recently that some of SEC’s main objectives to improve market activities this
year include encouraging companies to stay listed in the market by “continuing
to introduce best practices in periodic disclosure, securities issuance, and
merger and acquisition mandatory takeovers.”

Mrs Ekineh said the commission is “understanding and addressing
concerns of listed companies without undermining disclosure standards and
market integrity.” She said that SEC is working at promoting new products in
the market while the commission “improves on its process of electronic filing
of returns and offer documents.”

Meanwhile, the Association of Stockbroking Houses of Nigeria,
through its chairman, Rashed Yussuff, has expressed readiness to cooperate with
the new management of the NSE to reposition the market while they charged the
new management team to evolve policies that will benefit the market operators.

The assurance was given when Adeolu Bajomo, the newly appointed executive
director in charge of the NSE’s Market Operations and Information Technology,
was introduced to the stockbrokers on the floor of the exchange by Oscar
Onyema, the chief executive officer of the exchange.

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Ghana inflation dips in April, rate hold seen

Ghana inflation dips in April, rate hold seen

Ghana’s annual inflation rate fell to 9.02 percent in April, the
country’s statistics office said on Wednesday, the second dip in a row that
reinforces prospects of a rate hold decision by the Bank of Ghana this week.

Analysts said the surprise fall from 9.13 percent in March might
spark calls for a further rate cut, but for now, the consensus was for the
prime rate to be held at 13.5 percent and some analysts warned that inflation
could take off again soon.

Fuel price hikes pushed inflation higher in January but the
national statistics office said the stabilisation of fuel prices, coupled with
the abundance of food and a relatively stable exchange rate, had led to dip in
April.

“This is a good reading, especially given the inflationary
pressures stemming from high oil prices and a relatively weak currency,” said
Lisa Lewin, an analyst at London-based Business Monitor International.

“It looks almost certain that rates will be kept on hold this
time around, but as soon as inflation edges back into the double digits, we can
expect a hiking cycle to commence,” she added.

Separately, the statistics office said the Ghanaian economy grew
7.7 percent in 2010. Analysts see that accelerating to around 13 percent this
year thanks to oil revenues. An expected announcement of first quarter 2011
growth was put back to June.

Food for thought

The Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee is due to announce
its decision on interest rates on Friday. Ahead of Wednesday’s announcement,
seven out of ten banks polled said they were expecting the rate to be unchanged
at 13.5 percent.

“The immediate impact of this will be to set people thinking
…whether with the Prime Rate at 13.5 percent since last July there is any
probability of a late-cycle rate cut,” said Standard Chartered analyst Razia
Khan.

“While the good news on inflation will certainly boost the case
of those who have been arguing for a rate cut, our call is still for the Bank
of Ghana to keep interest rates on hold.” Mr Khan cited possible volatility in
the Ghana cedi, concern over Ghana’s fiscal deficit, a trend towards higher
inflation and improved credit access for the private sector as reasons for
holding the rate steady.

Non-food inflation was almost three times that of the food group
in April. High fuel prices, hikes in public sector wages and the influx of oil
revenues since Ghana started pumping oil last year have all raised the
prospects of steady increases in the pace of inflation over the year.

Reuters

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OIL POLITICS: The petroleum bill and last minute legislative contortion

OIL POLITICS: The petroleum bill and last minute legislative contortion

Legislative advocacy can a double-edged sword, if what you fight
for is shrouded in secrecy and all you depend on is the initial draft that was
in the public domain. One case in point is the much-expected Petroleum Industry
Bill (PIB). The PIB has generated so much interest because the oil and gas
sector has been left open to manipulation by political and industry players who
made massive gains while the nation got short-changed.

Aside the campaign for the passage of the Freedom of Information
bill, the clamour for the passage of the PIB has really captured the attention
of many. We all remember the recent public demonstrations of extractive sector
transparency campaigners in Abuja, demanding that the national assembly passes
the PIB into law before their tenure elapses later on this month.

Some observers have been careful to note that passage of the
bill, without public inkling as to what the final contents are, could be quite
injurious and on that account it is essential that the public be let in on what
has been cooked between the legislators, the petroleum ministry (the executive)
and the oil companies.

As May 29 draws close and industry watchers expect that the PIB
will be passed into law anytime before then, we have sought to have a peek into
what the final document may look like. The best we have been able to see is a
document that is yet to be cleaned up, but that gives an indication as to what
we may expect.

If you have pointed interest in environmental and social
elements of our laws, as some of us do, you can expect a PIB that is not as
good as the initial draft that was made public and was subject to many comments
and inputs.

A cursory look at the items deleted from the original document
by the final draughtsmen gives an indication that the pressures for this
watered-down law came heavily from those who care least about the environment
and the communities in whose territory the oil fields happen to be.

At the same time one gets the impression that the lawmakers
believe that the concerns of the communities can be fully taken care of by
allocating some cash to them. This has always been the bait and is not
innovative in the least.

The senate committee recommends the deletion of a section that
stipulated that oil companies “be responsible for any environmental damage,
pollution or ecological degradation occurring within the licence or lease area
as the result of exploration or production activities, in the case of upstream
operators and as a result of any licensed activity in the case of downstream
activities.”

The reason for the deletion is that another section provides
sufficiently for any “direct” impacts on the environment. Deleting the section
is suspicious, just as we note that environmental degradation is not only
caused by “direct” impacts and polluters should not be allowed to carry on with
business as usual under this cover.

The “final” PIB also rejects the proposal to measure production
volumes at wellhead rather than at distribution terminals. This will
undoubtedly ensure the opacity of the sector and the reckless thievery it
engenders. To add to the profit pile of the oil companies’, royalty and tax
regimes have been manipulated in their favour.

Another section that has significant deletions is found in the
provisions for labour rights. The legislators would not allow anything that
protects the rights of workers in the sector and the reason given is that other
laws already cover such needs. They pointedly deleted the “right to freedom of
association and effective recognition of the right of collective bargaining.” They
also chucked out protection against forced labour or use of underaged persons.

In reality, the restriction of collective bargaining rights
(including the sustained casualisation of labour) has been a major area of
struggle for labour unionists in the sector.

The legislators also think that it is wrong to create space for
the engagement of federal, state and local governments and communities in
promoting and ensuring “peace and development of the petroleum producing
areas.” The reason given for this is that the provision is a mere policy
statement and “has no legal binding character.” At another level, the final PIB
rejects the idea of incorporating the existing joint ventures and thus promotes
the retaining of business as usual.

On the trump card that should silence communities, the PIB seeks
to create a Host Communities Fund which would require that operators pay a
“nominal ten percent equity participation in upstream petroleum operations in
the Fund as beneficial owners to hold in trust.” This section is presented in
such a contorted way that even anyone can dance any which way.

Of the total sum held, 80 percent will, from time to time, be
allocated for development projects within the communities. The provision here
is that it will be of benefit to communities wholly or partially within the
lease areas of the oil and gas operators. It is very interesting to note that
the benefiting communities will have to demonstrate their direct involvement or
exposure to petroleum operation within the licensing area.

How would the direct involvement of the communities be
determined? Watch this: they have to collate the number of oil wells, flow
stations, oil terminals and power generating plants in their territory. They
also have to sum up the length of pipelines that cross their area and also the
number of gas flares. If gas flares suddenly become an asset, one wonders why
communities are not equally required to count the number of oil spills as well
as measure the volumes of oil spilled into their lands, swamps and rivers for
the same purpose.

Gas flares?

One would have thought that the final drafters of the PIB knew
nothing about gas flares because even the little mention of this illegal
activity in the initial draft has been completed yanked off the “final” copy.

If the copy of the PIB we have seen is an indication of what we are to
expect, it is clear that another opportunity to sanitise the sector is being
squandered. It will be a sad day indeed if the current legislators foist a
rigged PIB on the nation on the throes of their departure.

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