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Less than a month
to the commencement of the next general elections, politicians appear
to be scheming again to rig the polls. Attahiru Jega, the chairman of
the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), told a
beleaguered audience in Abuja that some high profile Nigerians were
involved in double registration.

“We even caught some high profile double registrants, and we will start with them in the area of prosecution,” Mr. Jega said.

Although the INEC
boss refused to mention the high profile Nigerians involved in the
double registration, what is not in doubt is that some politicians may
be getting ready to manipulate the forthcoming elections.

The rigged 2007 elections

The 2007 general
elections in the country were roundly condemned by local and
international observers as not meeting basic criteria for elections.
The European Union Election Observation Mission in Nigeria 2007 stated
in its report that, “the 2007 election process was not credible, and in
view of the lack of transparency and evidence of fraud, there can be no
confidence in the results.”

This conclusion by
the EU was supported by other local and foreign observers. Late
president, Umaru Yar’Adua, also admitted in his inaugural speech that
the election that brought him to power was not free and fair. The
courts also confirmed the monumental flaws that characterized the
elections with the courts upturning no fewer than nine governorship
election results. But both INEC and politicians did not appear to have
learnt anything from the previous elections of 2003, which was also
condemned by both local and international observers.

The US damning verdict in 2003

The United States
also believes the 2003 elections were a sham. In a cable sent from the
US embassy in Nigeria to Washington D.C, officials reported the 2003
elections, particularly those held in the South-South region of
Nigeria, as flawed saying “the degree of election tampering varied
starkly across and within the region’s states.”

The Americans
described the election in Delta State in 2003 as bad, Edo State was
very bad, while that of Rivers State was very, very bad. The cable,
which was sent on April 28, 2003, to the White House, accused the
ruling People’s Democratic Party of being the major perpetrators of the
electoral heist.

“Massive vote rigging took place with the egregious collaboration of PDP agents and security personnel,” the cable stated.

The election in Rivers State was described as very, very bad by the
American Government because “in no LGAs (local government areas) did
foreign or domestic observers find the process remotely approaching
free or fair elections.”

Aisha Oyebode, daughter of former head of state, Murtala Muhammed,
speaks on the presidential policy dialogue, which holds in Abuja from
March 8th to 9th, 2011.

What is the presidential dialogue all about?

The presidential
dialogue is in response to the national move for issue-based politics
and what we are trying to do is to create the opportunity for
deliberation and dialogue. It is going to be between the presidential
candidates and a representative sample of the Nigerian populace. What
we are trying to do is to deepen our democratic and developmental
journey so that the voters have the basis for making an informed choice
about the parties and the candidates in the coming elections.

It is also a way
of facilitating the development of national consensus on key
developmental issues and reforms. The focus is on public policy issues.
It is on issues that impact our development. So we are going to look at
different key sectors areas such as economic growth; infrastructure
development such as roads, electricity; issues of accountability and
transparency and governance. We are looking at public sector capacity,
homeland security, teachers’ quality improvement, basic education and
so on.

How different is the dialogue from the presidential debates organised in the past?

It is a one-on-one
dialogue. Each presidential candidate will have their own exclusive
session with the panelists who are public sector analysts and the
panelists will raise some questions with them, look at their manifesto,
look at the policy statements. So it is based on all of the issues that
plague us that we are then going to raise and ask them questions about
and they will be expected to respond to those questions.

So because it is
an exclusive session it provides the candidates and even the citizens
opportunity to engage deeply on key national challenges and priorities.
For us, our focus is really on policy issues. It will also ensure that
the candidates themselves are comfortable; the questions are going to
be very sophisticated; a lot of work, a lot of thinking ought to have
gone into those questions. What we are hoping to extract out of the
questions is how we are going to solve some of the issues that plague
the nation and to facilitate nation-building.

The attributes of integrity and
incorruptibility are factors that could sway the votes in the entire
North West geo-political zone in favour of Nigeria’s former military
ruler, Muhammadu Buhari.

Mr Buhari who is aspiring for the
presidency on the platform of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC)
will also be at home in the zone due to religious and ethnic
considerations.

From Sokoto down to Zamfara,
Kebbi, Katsina, Kaduna and Kano States, the majority of the voting
population who are adherents of the Islamic religion are most likely
going to see Mr Buhari as one who will protect their constitutionally
guaranteed rights to freedom of worship.

A pointer to this could be
discerned going by the recent action of a prominent Islamic scholar and
the Chief Imam of the Farfaru Juma’at in Sokoto State, Abubakar Jibril,
who was caught allegedly defacing the campaign posters of President
Goodluck Jonathan. The cleric who was accused of inciting public
disturbance is now being detained at the Force Criminal Investigation
Department in Abuja.

There are thousands of Mr Jibril
all over the zone that is home to Islamic hardliners who may never
sacrifice Mr Buhari for any of the presidential candidates. Even fellow
Muslims like All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) presidential candidate,
Ibrahim Shekarau, and Action Congress of Nigeria’s (ACN) Nuhu Ribadu,
who are considered as upstarts, are unlikely going to reap from the
dividends of this sentiment.

The writing on the wall

Shortly after the presidential
primaries of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that saw the
emergence of Mr Jonathan as the flag bearer of the party, the social
media were awash with innuendos, branding all the northern governors
who are adherents of the Islamic faith with labels such as “pope,
pastor, reverend father, bishop, primate and evangelist,” all in a bid
to portray them as those who have betrayed their brothers from the same
faith.

Former governor of Kano State,
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who led Kano State delegates to the Abuja PDP
convention, has assumed a status of a folk hero in the state today for
throwing his weight behind Mr Abubakar, based on the same religious and
regional sentiments.

Ironically, Mr Kwankwaso was at
the receiving end at the 2003 polls because he openly canvassed support
for former President Olusegun Obasanjo who contested against Mr Buhari.
At that time, the electorate not only branded Mr Kwankwaso as a
“pharaoh”, they roundly tossed him out of power with ignominy.

Religion undoubtedly was used as
one of the major tools by Mr Shekarau who defeated Mr Kwankwaso at the
poll. Therefore, Mr Kwankwaso’s support for Mr Abubakar in the PDP
Presidential primary election might not be unconnected with the lesson
learnt in 2003.

In Kano State these days,
campaign posters of Mr Jonathan are not common. Even the PDP chieftains
vying for various positions avoid being associated with Mr Jonathan’s
poster like a plague. Interestingly, in one of the strategic locations
in Kano, NEXT observed a poster carrying the pictures of Mr Kwankwaso
and that of Mr Buhari. In Jigawa State, the story is not different, as
the state governor, Sule Lamido, was allegedly stoned in Hadejia town
recently by youth who were not happy with the 100 percent support for
Jonathan at the PDP Presidential Primary election.

Integrity is gain

The voters in Kano, just as in
other parts of the zone, see in Mr Buhari someone who is not out to
enrich himself to the detriment of the masses in Nigeria. While
pointing at his no-nonsense stewardship as military head of state and
as head of the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) as one of the golden eras of
transparent and accountable governance in Nigeria, they believe that
Nigeria still requires Mr Buhari’s services to correct the ills of the
society.

Though the CPC is facing some
organisational challenges in virtually all the states of the zone, it
is unlikely to affect the prospect of Mr Buhari at the poll.

Muhammad Kabiru Gwangwazo is a
leader of the CPC in Kano and was Mr Buhari’s campaign coordinator in
2003. He believes strongly that Mr Buhari will have an easy ride in the
North West and the entire northern states.

“Even if Buhari didn’t campaign
in the Northwest, he will win easily, because the people trust him; he
has done before and will do it again if voted to power. I want to
assure you that out of the over 18 million people that registered from
the Northwest, Mr Buhari will get 15 million.” Rabiu Bako who is the
Kano State Secretary of the ANPP disagrees with Mr Gwangwazo, saying
that Mr Shekarau is the person that will win in the zone.

“If you look, the agitation of
the majority is that they want change from the old people; they know
Buhari, because he was there; they saw what he did and they don’t want
him again. This is what the people are saying.

“Look, our candidate, Shekarau,
is the best among these people. Look at what he has done in Kano in the
last eight years, nobody has achieved this feat before. We want him to
go and do the same at the federal level because this PDP government has
failed Nigerians in the last 12 years.” For Mr Shekarau, no doubt he
has done well in Kano State in the last eight years and he still enjoys
mass appeal from the Kano populace, however, his major obstacle is that
the ANPP is not popular in the North West because it is a PDP-dominated
zone. In addition, he is a green horn politically in the zone. Although
he has been governor of Kano in the last eight years, he cannot match
the pedigree of Mr Buhari in the North West, who many perceive as
incorruptible and has the common man in mind.

Notwithstanding, Mr Shekarau is
still upbeat about his chances; that he can defeat an incumbent in the
election. On a recent BBC programme, ‘Hard Talk,’ he made reference to
how he defeated Mr Kwankwaso, an incumbent, in 2003.

Mr Buhari holds sway in Kano, as
the electorate would massively vote for him irrespective of the party
affiliation. Already, the CPC is making inroad in Kano and states like
Jigawa and Kastina. However, Mr Shekarau will give him a good run in
the state, because in 2007, Mr Shekarau won the election without Mr
Buhari’s support.

For Mr Ribadu who is equally new
in the field and perceived by many in the North West as having been
used as a hunting dog by former president Obasanjo against his enemies,
his chances in the Northwest look very slim. Majority in the zone
believe that his party, the ACN, is a party that belongs to the Yorubas
and as such, is not a national party.

Political observers are of the
view that the CPC will win in the North West ahead of the ANPP and the
PDP, though others have different views because of the influence of the
vice president Namadi Sambo who is from the zone. By and large, given
the current scenario, the voting pattern is not likely going to be
different from that of all other previous elections held since 2003.

In 2003, Mr Buhari scored 80
percent of the estimated number of votes in Kano State against Mr
Obasanjo who got less than 25 percent. It was the same in 2007 when Mr
Buhari contested against late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua who incidentally
hailed from Buhari’s Katsina State. Although the PDP got 25 percent as
well in 2007, Mr Buhari still scored an estimated 75 percent of the
total votes cast.

If this trend persists, Mr Buhari may just clinch the support of over 13 million out of 18 million votes in the April polls.

Oronto Douglas, the special assistant to the president on strategy,
expresses optimism that his boss has done enough to win.

Why Jonathan deserves the votes of Nigerians

Because his story
is one that most Nigerians can relate to. It is also one that best
illustrates the positive attributes of this nation. He never had
opportunity of shoes when he was going to school, just like millions of
Nigerians. He had no school bag to put his school notes in. He had to
trek kilometres to get to school. Yet he never despaired, in his words.
He showed fortitude, like millions of ordinary Nigerians. There are
problems besetting Nigerians, but they continue to strive to better
their individual lots. So a man of that pedigree, who did not allow the
circumstance of his youth to stop him from achieving his goals in life,
represents the best aspiration of Nigerians. Of course, he also enjoys
the support of God, without which most of his achievements would not
have been possible.

There has been a visible hand of God in Jonathan’s
life. I think 99.9 percent of Nigerians can identify with that. He is a
president that every household can look up to and be filled with hope,
that their child who is today selling akara or carrot can tomorrow be
president of the country. Mr. Jonathan has also promised to make sure
that the infrastructure that will make that possible is put in place in
the next four years that he will be in power. His emergence has
rewritten the story of who can lead Nigeria. He has shown that Nigeria
is a nation for all, rather than for a section or a clique. I also
think if you give Nigeria to people who will sell the destiny of the
country, then we will be in bigger trouble. The president has
consistently said all he has is in Nigeria. He schooled in Nigeria and
his children are being schooled in Nigeria. This is not to disparage
those who schooled abroad, but it is where your heart is that you will
defend at all cost. So in terms of commitment, I can confidently say
there are few Nigerians as devoted to this country as President
Jonathan. I respect all the other presidential [candidates], but we are
saying at this time in our history, this man that has been in office
for the past nine months and has laid out plans to rescue the nation is
best placed to execute the plan and that man is President Jonathan.

Friction within the PDP following the primaries

The PDP is seen by
many as a party whose ticket is halfway to getting to office. But
people should know that this is a new PDP, where the most popular and
competent candidates are picked to run elections. However, in places
where there are constitutional issues, the strategy that President
Jonathan and the PDP are adopting is dialogue. I can tell you that with
respect to Ogun State, there was a time the president did not sleep for
two days. He held meetings with the Jubril Martins Kuye and Gbenga
Daniel groups and, at a point, brought all of them together at the
Villa. The president is a man of peace and always tells people, “I have
no enemies to fight. I want all of us to work together.” You remember
that after presidential primaries, which he won, he still went out of
his way to drive to Adamu Ciroma’s house to have a discussion with a
view to keeping the party together. His view was that a statesman of
Ciroma’s stature cannot be ignored. He also wants to be president of
all, not president of a section or region.

Criticism of president’s ‘rascal’ comment

In the statement,
the president praised southwesterners for their sophistication and high
level of education. If a statement regarding that is being taken out of
context and used for political purpose, it is unfortunate. The
President, as a true statesman would came out to say, ‘I take
responsibility for this statement, I offer my sincere regrets in this
regard, that what I meant is to celebrate the excellence, greatness and
leadership of South-West people. It is unfortunate that one or two
individuals are appropriating it and pushing it to mean insulting the
most educated and sophisticated people. The president will never insult
his elders and leaders. If you knew the president well, he always
answers ‘sir’ to anyone who is older than him. He will never insult the
elders, leaders and people of the South-West. Take note that the
president is educated, he did his NYSC in the South-West, has friends
from the South-West and is one person who never forgets. Some of those
he did youth service with from the South-West are now working with him.

The scanty crowd at the presidential Kaduna rally

My observation is
that the crowd in Kaduna had been sitting there from 7am. As at the
time the President and the dignitaries arrived, people were very tired.
Take note, they were zonal rallies and most of the people had to return
to their homes. People came from Sokoto, Kebbi and Kano and I believe
that in a place like that, it is like what happened in Port Harcourt,
when the occasion ended, people wanted to go back to their buses and
travel. So, if the day is getting dark, you will want to get back home.
The zonal rally was organised by the zonal coordinator who is from
Kastina. The president won 53 percent of the votes of the North-West
delegates at the PDP rally. He may have lost in some states, but he won
with 53 percent over all, meaning that he had overwhelming support of
the people. Democracy is about majority. At the election proper, what
the president needs is 25 percent and he got more than that in majority
of these states. Ordinary people in the North-West love Jonathan. Why
would they not love him? He relates with them.

Challenges of the northwest for PDP

Every other
candidate has work to do in every zone. Buhari has work to do in the
South-West. He has work to do in the South-East, South-West and in the
North-Central, North-East and North-West. Is it everybody in the
North-West that loves Buhari? Nuhu Ribadu has work to do in every
single zone. So, the challenges are challenges that are not restricted
to one person. Let me just say that we have a lot of people who will
like to identify with the president, his history and all that.

Alleged poor performance of the PDP in the last 12 years

The president came
to transform Nigeria. We believe the place to start is transforming the
PDP and the president has started that work. The PDP as a party has
been in office for close to 12 years. There are perceptions about the
PDP that may not be salutary to Nigerians. However, the determination
of President Jonathan is to transform all aspects of our lives. The
opposition has been very careful not to attack President Jonathan as a
person. So they have been attacking the PDP. Well, if I was working for
the opposition, I would probably adopt that strategy because Jonathan
is popular with the Nigerian people. So he is fully aware that the PDP
will be attacked and at some point the opposition will also attack him.
Look at the statement he made in Ibadan, for example, that was blown
out of proportion. I am a beneficiary of Obafemi Awolowo’s free
education. If I am advising the president, would I tell him to do
anything against the South-West? The president did his NYSC in the
Southwest and has a lot of friends in the zone. Would he now do
anything against the people?

The alleged mismanagement of the economy by the federal government

The President has
been in the office for nine months. He promised what we call the three
Es. He looked at Electoral reform, Electricity and Energy security. He
believed there cannot be good government if you do not have
constitutional and robust process for selecting the leaders who will
govern the country. In practical terms of electoral reforms, he
decided, ‘let us practicalise what we are preaching.’ When the first
bye-election came up in the Edo Central, he said it was one of the
first test of free and fair elections. He told INEC and security
agencies that what he wanted was one man, one vote; one woman, one
vote; one youth, one vote. The president insisted on free and fair
election and the ACN won. Edo State governor, Adams Oshiomhole flew
from Benin to Abuja to congratulate and thank the president for
standing on the rule of law and insisting on free and fair election.
That is the benchmark for this election.

On energy security, it is
important that we note that before now, people stay on the queue for
hours, while some people sleep overnight in filling stations. People
were sleeping three days, three nights in filling stations. Now, that
is a thing of the past. Secondly, the same amount you pay for a litre
of fuel you buy in Lagos is what you are going to pay if you buy in
Maidugiri. There has also been improvement in power generation and this
will continue to be improved upon over time.