Nigeria Content Online

Once again, the
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) runs down a previously navigated path.
Just as it did some 5 – 7 years ago, it is advertising its quasi-fiscal
responsibilities ahead of its “other” duty of managing the country’s
monetary policy.

On this score, I was
shocked to recently read the International Monetary Fund (IMF) blame
the “forced consolidation” of the sector in 2005-06 for the subsequent
crisis in the banking industry! I honestly thought the IMF lent its
cachet to the attempt then by the Professor Soludo-led CBN to “reduce
the number of banks (in the country) while increasing their individual
size”.

This initiative,
remember, became the poster child of a concerted effort by the managers
of this economy to steer it past the South African economy by 2020.
Propelling this goal was the argument that if Nigeria was to take its
place as a member of the world’s leading economies by 2020, we needed a
financial services industry with both the appetite and the muscle to
support big-ticket transactions. The middling operators available in the
nation’s banking space in 2004 just wouldn’t do.

However, this policy
quirk, and the CBN’s subsequent focus on its development function was a
letdown for many who had anchored their expectations of the apex bank
on the vision enunciated by the then CBN governor in his July 6, 2004
address to the Special Meeting of the Bankers’ Committee. Some of us
were justified in expecting a more efficient monetary policy thrust. If
for no other reason, Professor Soludo did promise to ensure that banks
in the country “engaged in strict banking business in terms of savings
intermediation”. In the end, the CBN focussed on its role as a
development agent, rather than the function for which it is
statutorily and structurally more suited – managing the nation’s
monetary policy. We then fell way short of both the development goals
on behalf of which the apex bank took its foot of the monetary policy
pedal, and of the goals of monetary policy itself.

What were the
chances that the new central bank leadership, which took office in 2009,
was going to rediscover the backbone to retrieve monetary policy from
the doldrums? Structural problems with this economy were always going to
matter a lot! Governments’ continued fiscal excesses are not so much
the problem. In fact, this aspect of our national life is but a symptom
of a much deeper problem: an astounding level of economic illiteracy at
the policy execution level. To take but one instance of this: why is it
still so difficult to persuade policymakers here that we cannot
simultaneously control for higher levels of official spending, low
interest rates, exchange rate stability, and low inflation?

It is axiomatic that
there is a relationship between these indices that guarantees that any
attempt to control for the movement of any three of them would be
reflected in the movement of the fourth one. This latter movement then
becomes the cost of the decisions we make. Good husbandry at the
macroeconomic level requires clarity about the trade-offs involved in
the manipulation of these indices and the costs associated with them.

In the last one
year, we have chosen to keep government spending (incredibly) high,
exchange rates stable, and interest rates low. Inflation should have
been on its way through the rafters because of this choice.
Nevertheless, it hasn’t moved as much as one would have expected. One
possibility is that we are measuring the wrong things. Either way, in
most other economies, central banks address inflation concerns by
varying the policy rate. In our own circumstance, the CBN is arguing
that structural problems, including the composition of the consumer
price index, make interest rate an ineffective tool for achieving its
“price stability” goal. This may be true.

However, it is difficult not to wonder by how much the low interest
rates the CBN has allowed has fuelled government’s bulimia for domestic
borrowing. We know by how much government borrowing has crowded out the
private sector from the domestic credit market. There are also
structural issues with the credit creation process. The problem is that
by focussing on quasi-fiscal measures, the CBN may have lost the
monetary policy plot. Same way it did some five years ago!

Libyan crude oil shipments are set to slide in the coming days
as mounting violence, falling oil output, the impact of sanctions and rising
freight costs take their toll on Africa’s third-largest producer.

As fighting continues across Libya, the oil industry is trying
to assess the output lost. Most estimates have suggested around half of the
country’s 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil capacity is out of action.

But the International Energy Agency said on Friday one million
bpd of production was currently shut as foreign oil firms evacuate their
workers.

“There has been a massive flight of skilled workers,” said
Samuel Ciszuk, senior analyst with IHS Energy.

“You now have a situation where everything is pointing towards a
more or less complete shutdown of Libyan production.”

At least 4.4 million barrels of crude sailed from Libyan ports
last week on tankers. But shipping sources said the export momentum was fading,
adding that a number of shipments had been cancelled in the past few days.

“You are definitely seeing a slowdown in activity,” a ship
broker said. “At the end of last week deals have been a lot more flaky — it’s
a combination of nervousness and people taking stock of the various sanctions.”

Western countries, the European Union and the United Nations
have imposed sanctions on Libya and frozen government assets after forces loyal
to leader Muammar Gaddafi fired on protestors.

The Swiss branch of Libyan oil company Tamoil told Reuters last
week U.N. sanctions could affect the group’s ability to source crude and that
high oil prices had forced it to cut refinery runs.

There were also indications that tankers were leaving Libya
without crude onboard. A tanker owned by Iranian tanker company NITC left a
Libyan port without a cargo, an NITC spokesman said.

Separately, Danish owner and operator Torm said one its tankers
left Libya without loading a cargo.

“They were not able to get hold of the cargo,” a Torm spokesman
said, without giving further details.

Libya’s top oil official estimated last week oil output by the
world No.12 exporter had fallen to 700,000-750,000 bpd.

Falling output

Ship brokers and analysts said the amount exported in oil
tankers was most likely to have been taken from storage tankers or from
existing pipeline supplies.

Sources said the growing costs involved in Libyan oil shipments
was also making deals more unattractive, with more buyers seeking alternative
crude oil sources including Nigerian or Saudi Arabian stocks.

“When ship owners are quoting Libyan cargoes they double or
triple the freight rate due to uncertainties,” a second ship broker said.

Tanker rates on the benchmark cross Mediterranean route rocketed
up to their highest in more than nine months last week to nearly $50,000 a day
before retreating to $41,197 a day on Friday, Baltic Exchange data showed.

Expectation of higher insurance costs is another growing factor,
shipping sources said. London’s marine insurance market added Libya to a list
of areas deemed high risk.

“The key thing at the moment is insurance and it’s expensive for
people to call at Libyan ports,” a ship broker said. “The Lloyd’s market move
is bound to have an impact.”

The World Bank has unveiled a new package aimed at consolidating
its efforts to eradicate poverty in Africa through economically empowering the
people.

The package, entitled ‘Africa’s Future and the World Bank’s
Support for it’, is designed to provide support for the continent, with
specific focus on its twin pillars of promoting competitiveness and employment
generation.

The plan, which is a marked shift in the way the global bank
views Africa, is a product of extensive consultation with stakeholders on the
continent on how best to tackle the challenges of under-development through the
creation of the socio-economic and political climate for Africa’s
competitiveness in an increasingly changing global system.

One of the major investment components of the plan would see
about $24 billion (about N18.4 trillion) invested annually by the World Bank to
close the current infrastructure gap, put at about $48 billion annually, to
boost investments in the continent.

Empowering Africa

World Bank’s vice president for Africa Region, Obiageli
Ezekwesili, who announced the plan during a teleconference from Paris monitored
by representatives from various media across the continent, explained that the
implementation of the plan would help the continent’s economic reforms over the
next decade.

She said the package would also help to diversify the economies
in Africa, create employment, improve health care, support good governance, and
tackle the challenges of corruption, climate change, and other occurrences that
hamper development in the continent.

Mrs. Ezekwesili, who hinted that approval of the new plan,
designed after broad consultations with all public and private sector as well
as social groups in the continent, was given by the bank’s board on Tuesday,
pointed out that its goal is to create structures and systems that would
address the challenges of under-development as well as reposition the various economies
for improved competitiveness in the global business environment.

“The plan is going to be a huge focus on how Africa can
diversify its economic structure, how traded goods and services, in
manufacturing, agro-business, ICT, mining, and tourism as well as feed on
domestic capacities.

“These are key pillars of competitiveness like agriculture,
transportation utilities, education and skill development can receive even
greater attention in the areas of reforms as well as public investments in
order to get the highest growth impact.

“It will be a total focus on infrastructure, business
environment, and skills acquisition from without as well as from the
continent,” Mrs. Ezekwesili said.

The World Bank chief said “the strategy will address
macroeconomic as well as shocks such as health, natural disasters such as
drought, forest desertification, soil erosion, as well as address food
shortages, conflict and political violence, and threat of climate change.

“We will provide as much advocacy and build up power to support
development, particularly with regard to climate change. The foundation of the
strategy, which is governance and public sector capacity building, will be
based on the feedback we got during the period we were on the continent.

“We will emphasise the need to address governance as well as
public sector leadership, both of which are critical factors in Africa’s
continued performance and improvement,” Mrs. Ezekwesili added.

The World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, Shantayanan
Devarjan, said the bank’s new planned support for Africa is “as much a
reflection of what we (the bank) heard from Africa’s people and leaders as it
is the thinking of the World Bank”, adding that “though we are confident it is
the right approach at this time, we also want to make sure that we are ready to
adapt asAfrica continues to change and progress.”

“How am I supposed
to save when I earn barely enough to live on?” “My salary starts to
disappear as soon as I receive it. No matter how hard I try to save, I
am always broke” “Even when I do save, something always comes up, like
my friend’s wedding which was last week; she will never forgive me if I
don’t “take” her ‘aso-ebi,’ that set me back N30,000 and there is
another one in two weeks time. It’s impossible to save.”

Many young
Nigerians complain that by the end of the month, there is no money left
to save; they give up on saving even before they start. Once they have
taken care of their mobile phone bills, rent, food, clothes and
entertainment. If you are constantly broke before mid month and cannot
make ends meet, then it is time to change the way you treat your money.
With a little determination and discipline, you can do it.

You don’t earn enough to save?

This is the most
common reason for not saving and it is flawed. Many people tell
themselves that they do not earn enough money and that if they made
just a little bit more, things would be much better. This excuse would
hold more water if you have already placed yourself on a tight budget
and are paying careful attention to your spending, and are still broke.

The truth is that
many young adults are simply not paying enough attention to their
personal finances. They assume they will earn lots more as time goes on
and things will begin to fall into place. This attitude means that they
don’t really consider what comes in and where it all goes. Yet, it is
not the amount of money that you earn that matters, but how much of it
that you keep. If you establish poor spending habits when you are
young, it will be no different when you begin to earn a significant
amount of money.

Are you spending more than you earn?

Do you track your
spending? Start tracking what you spend for a month and a startling
picture will emerge of where all your money is going. When you do this,
you will have a clearer idea what you need to cut back on or do without
altogether.

Note that it’s easy
to track spending on set expenses, such as transport costs or rent. But
you can easily lose track of how much you are spending on eating out or
mobile phone re-charge cards especially if you always pay with cash.

Thirty-two year old
Shade lives rent free with her aunt in Lagos, and earns N165,000 a
month yet, she is always broke. When friends visit her office armed
with clothes, shoes, bags and jewellery for sale, she can’t resist and
it is quite easy to acquire the items as they let her pay over three to
six months. At first, these impulse purchases may seem affordable but
before long, the expenses spiral out of control and hundreds of naira
spent in this way grows into hundreds of thousands of naira. It was
glaring why Shade was always penniless and in debt.

She decided to log her expenses for the month of January 2011; it highlighted her typical monthly expense pattern.

Tithes: N17,000;
Hair / Beauty: N32,500; Eating out & Entertainment: N30,000;
Take-away meals: N20,000; Aso-ebi: N45,000; Mobile phone re-charge
cards: N16,000; Transport: N30,000; Clothes: N25,000; total: N215,500.

Budget

One of the best
ways to ensure that your expenses are not exceeding your income is to
budget. List all your routine monthly expenses, and other spending, and
subtract those amounts from your income. By making small, manageable
changes in your everyday expenses, you can make a huge impact on your
financial situation.

What is really important?

If you are living
on a tight budget, prioritising your spending is essential. Of course,
it is nice to eat out often with friends but it doesn’t have to be
everyday. If there is an item that you have set your mind on, ask
yourself if you really need it. A useful tip is to shop with a list.
Before shopping, make a list of only those items you need and buy only
those, otherwise chances are that you will end up picking up what you
don’t really need. The key is to begin to differentiate between needs
and wants, and being brutally truthful to yourself about your personal
finances.

Pay yourself first

You are probably tired of hearing about this concept but it cannot be over-emphasised, as it is a key first step to saving.

Each time you get
paid, no matter how much it is, try to keep at least 10% aside for
yourself. Instead of waiting until the end of the month to see if you
have any money left, make your savings an urgent bill that must be paid
as soon as you get your salary. This will be the foundation of your
savings. It can be difficult, but once you get started, you will see
the savings adding up and this is self-enforcing; you will be
encouraged to continue saving.

Put your savings on autopilot

Many people don’t
have the discipline to physically set money aside. One solution is to
automate your savings. Talk to your bank about setting up a direct
debit from your salary or current account to your savings account or a
mutual fund each month, preferably the day after payday. You won’t have
to worry about pay-in slips or visiting the bank; which could be an
inconvenience.

Make your savings hard to get at

Even when you make
enough to save just a little money, you will be tempted to spend it if
it is easily accessible. Put your savings in a vehicle that makes it a
little difficult for you to get at. This may be that you have to visit
the bank or observe a notice period to make a withdrawal. Don’t tie
your savings to your debit card as once you pass an ATM you will be
tempted to withdraw. This will help you to curb your impulse spending.

The art of saving
money is really a state of mind. Like any skill, it takes some effort
and practice to improve. If you are disciplined enough to commit to it
in the first place, the process would already have begun. Investing
even small amounts of money at an early age will grow into a
significant sum over time. The sooner you start saving, the better.

Write to
personalfinance@234next.com with your questions and comments. We would
love to hear from you. All letters will be considered for publication,
and if selected, may be edited.

The major business
of South African Tourism is to bring as many tourists as possible into
the country, says Phumi Dhlomo, the Regional Director, Africa and
Domestic of the agency.

He said this during
the Meetings Africa 2011, Africa’s business tourism Lekgotla, at the
Sandton Convention Centre, Johannesburg, South Africa.

Meetings Africa is
a business tourism marketing platform which aims to expose local and
international buyers to the range of services and products in Southern
Africa’s Meetings, Incentives, Conference,

Exhibitions (MICE)
industry. The visitor target market is anyone who travels for business
or who books business travel, as well as organisers of events,
conferences, meetings, team incentive trips, or team building
activities.

Lekgotla means a consultative process between groups pursuing a common goal.

Mr Dhlomo however,
said that South Africa is more than a destination for leisure tourism.
“We’re interested in business tourism as well, especially meetings,
conferences, exhibitions and events. We hosted a very successful World
Cup last year and we are also hosting others like golf events, music
events and other small and medium events.” Nomasonto Ndlovu, Global
Manager, Business Tourism at South African Tourism explained further
why business tourism is assuming a greater importance. “People never
travel alone for business meetings but look forward to other things
too, we must make sure that people who come for conferences have other
things to do as well.” She also added that international buyers are
keen to “buy regions” meaning that they prefer regional destinations to
just one destination “and so we are encouraging other countries to
develop as well.” “We want to see the whole continent benefit from
tourism and we believe that if we open up the African axis, it will be
wonderful. We hope South African Airways will open up more routes in
the continent,” said Marthinus van Schalkwyk, the country’s minister of
tourism.

Truly, South Africa
is benefitting most from tourism as seen in the over 7.3 million
tourists it hosted between January and November last year.

Mr van Schalkwyk
further highlighted the important and growing role that business
tourism will play in the South African government’s job creation
objectives. “Tourism contributed an estimated 7.7% to South Africa’s
Gross Domestic Product in 2010. Business tourism will no doubt play a
role in getting more visitors to South Africa,” he said.

He added that in 2009, approximately 500,000 business tourists came to South Africa, about 4.7% of total tourist arrivals:

“This represents a
total economic value of about R4 billion with business tourists
spending an average of R5,300 during their stay in South Africa. The
average length of stay business tourists also increased from 4.6 nights
in 2009.” He cited statistics by the International Congress and
Convention Association (ICCA) which ranked South Africa 34th globally
and first in Africa for 2009 in terms of the number of meetings hosted.
The report shows that in 2009, almost 8,300 meetings were held
globally, of which almost 55% were held in Europe.

Africa hosted 3.8%
of the meetings or 314 meetings with 90 held in South Africa, followed
by Egypt with 32 meetings. Cape Town was the leading city in Africa
with 49 meetings; Johannesburg was ranked 5th, and Durban 10th,
compared to other African cities.

“These figures show
that South Africa and our leading business tourism cities compare very
well in terms of the rest of our continent. We believe Meetings Africa
will again be an important opportunity for the entire African meetings
and business community to interact and explore opportunities.”

A legacy of improved infrastructure

The importance of
the eight annual Meetings Africa 2011, was further attested to by
Thandiwe January-McLean, the chief executive officer of South African
Tourism.

“South African
Tourism is confident Africa’s premier business tourism exhibition will
once again be an invaluable opportunity for the entire African and
business community to interact and explore mutually beneficial
opportunities.” The country has a legacy of improved infrastructure and
world class delivery and so it was no surprise that the conference must
have achieved its objectives. The convention centre is a lesson in how
world class infrastructure can facilitate business and improve a
country’s gross domestic product. No doubt, the successful hosting of
World Cup 2010 must have boosted South Africa’s profile as she has been
invited to join the economically influential bloc of Brazil, Russia,
India, and China, with the exciting business opportunities the BRICS
partnership potentially brings.

Meetings Africa
also encouraged exhibitors and hosted buyers to interact and experience
first-hand the exciting opportunities that exist in the continent’s
meeting, exhibitions and conferencing industry. Unsurprisingly, South
Africa has secured almost 200 meetings which will attract more than 300,

000 delegates over
the next five years. Events like the United Nations Climate Change
Conference (COP 17) and a major meeting of the International Olympic
Committee.

Over 183 exhibitors
attended the exhibition with buyers from different countries. A
matchmaking programme delivered guaranteed pre-scheduled appointments
and the floor plan improvement with clear categorisation of exhibitors
made it easier for visitors to navigate the show and made the most of
the limited time. As expected, hotels, safari parks, convention
centres, and exhibition venues were the major exhibitors.

A Nigerian travel and tour operator who attended the meeting
described it as “fantastic.” Tinuke Nwakohu said she found Meetings
Africa 2011 useful as “you cannot market a destination without fully
understanding it.” Mrs Nwakohu added that the meeting also showed that
“a lot of work must be done to make Nigeria attractive like South
Africa. South Africa has shown a lot of commitment but I’m not sure we
are committed to tourism as only two people talk about tourism – the
Minister of Tourism and Lagos State Tourism commissioner, maybe when
our oil is finished, we will take tourism seriously.” She concluded.

Despite the recent call by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the devaluation of the naira, financial analysts believe that with the sustained intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the value of the naira would remain stable this year.

However, they cautioned that this would be at the expense of foreign reserves. According to Victor Ndukauba, an investment research analyst at Afrinvest, given the weakness of the United States dollar in the global currency markets, coupled with relatively high oil prices, the Central Bank has been able to intervene in the market at crucial times to meet excess demand for dollars and keep the currency broadly stable.
“We believe that sustained high prices, together with the Central Bank’s determination to mitigate the downside currency risk, should ensure that this stability is maintained throughout 2011. We forecast that the naira will stay firmly in the N151.00-N153.00 to the dollar range,” Mr. Ndukauba said.
Exchange rate movement The naira continues to remain a stable currency, trading at N150.5 to the dollar at the official market, still within the N150±3 per cent margin set by the Central Bank. Nigeria’s external reserves currently stand at $33.8 billion, representing a 4 per cent accretion YTD.
On a year to date (YTD) basis, the naira depreciated by 0.9 per cent at the official market but appreciated 0.6 per cent in the parallel markets while the spread between the official and parallel rates narrowed by 34 per cent to N4.5k.
“The Central Bank may continue its defence of the currency due to increased forex earnings (as a result of strong oil prices and production). Near term projection therefore remains stable,” Bismarck Rewane, managing director, Financial Derivatives Company, said.
According to him, the marginal build up in reserves comes on the back of strong oil production of 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) and high prices (above $100), making the figure somewhat disappointing.
“However, we expect to see a better performance in the coming months now that there are no special power projects to fund, boomed oil wells have been replaced, and speculative attack on the naira has thawed (the three major factors that helped to drain reserves according to the Central Bank governor),” Mr. Rewane said, adding that the naira is expected to trade at between N155-N160/$.
According to him, analysis has shown that the cash market is funded by the Central Bank. “The Central Bank’s defence is at the expense of the reserves,” he said.
Also, Yvonne Mhango, macro and fixed income research analyst, Renaissance Capital, an investment bank, said, “A comparison with Russia and Kazakhstan suggests to us that the naira should remain stable.”
She added that the similarity with which the 37 per cent decline in the annual average oil price impacted the currencies of Nigeria, Russia, and Kazakhstan in 2009 is peculiar.
“The naira, rouble, and tenge depreciated by 26 per cent, 27 per cent, and 23 per cent respectively, against the dollar in 2009. Notably, the currencies of Russia and Kazakhstan appreciated in 2010 on the back of a 29 per cent increase in the average oil price, while that of Nigeria moderately depreciated. This, in our view, adds to the argument that the naira should not be devalued.
“Although its current account surplus estimate for 2010 was downwardly revised to 7 per cent of GDP, Nigeria’s external position remains strong with eight-to-nine months of import cover and the strong oil price supporting an improvement in the current account surplus to 8-10 per cent of GDP in 2011, on our estimates. We thus maintain our view that Nigeria’s exchange rate will remain stable in 2011,” Ms. Mhango said.
The Central Bank governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, in an interview on CNBC TV last month, said that the regulatory body has chosen to go for exchange rate stability.
“It is not a fixed rate; I have made it very clear that we are not there to defend the naira at that level at all cost, but we do not have any fundamental reason for reducing the value of the naira. I have had this debate with the IMF, the recommendations they made are internally inconsistent.
“If we devalue the currency or we depreciate the currency, it adds to inflation. The question is, can we sustain this rate? And in a time of rising oil prices, stable revenues, we think we can. In fact, the depletion of reserves has ended,” Mr. Sanusi had said.

Not minding the obvious difficult business climate, Nigeria’s trade partners are still interested in increasing their foothold in the country.

Andy Davidson, deputy director, United Kingdom Trade and Investment department in Nigeria, said though the banking crisis has hampered the growth of businesses in the country, enormous opportunity still abound for other countries to tap into.

He said his office was interested in getting more British companies to come to Nigeria and take advantage of the opportunities. He said while the UK acknowledges the rise in trade between Nigeria and China, there were still areas where British companies can still thrive.

“I don’t worry too much about competition. I worry about British companies and how they should see Nigeria. China is our competitor and we need to find a competitive advantage to compete. It’s that simple. It is a capitalist world and Nigeria is a capitalist society. We need to compete.

“The EU (European Union), the United States, China. We all need to compete together. We all have unique selling points and it is just finding those and make sure we have a level playing field,” Mr. Davidson said.

Nigeria has strong historical ties with the UK and is the country’s 33rd largest overseas market and second largest African market for goods. UK export of goods to Nigeria in 2009 was worth £1.23 while that of services was worth £1.28 billion as at 2008.

Lack of information

Speaking at the breakfast meeting of the Nigeria British Chamber of Commerce (NBCC) yesterday in Lagos, Mr. Davidson said the major constraint to British businesses coming to Nigeria was the lack of information.

“Without that ability to have confidence and information, it is difficult for British firms to come to Nigeria,” he said.

He, however, said the perception about Nigeria was largely misplaced. “I think states are getting savvy in terms of what their potentials are. Nigeria was a bread basket 50 years ago and I don’t see why it cannot be a bread basket now.”

On Nigeria’s goal of being among the top 20 largest economies by the year 2020, he said though it is challenging, the objective is achievable.

“There is no reason why you would set a goal that is challenging and not achieve it. That is why we are here. It is going to take everybody coming together and driving it,” he further said.

Akinola Akintunde, president and chairman of council of the NBCC, said the chamber was interested in improving bilateral trade and development between both countries. In line with that, the chamber was organising a trade and an investment exposition holding at the end of the month.

“The goal of this show is to sensitise British investors on the potentials and opportunities in Nigeria. In the coming years, we expect to see increased investment in oil and gas, banking and finance, insurance, and professional services,” Mr. Akintunde said.

He further said one of the long term goals of the chamber is to improve the balance of trade between both countries, adding that as at 2009, Nigeria’s exports to UK was about $600 million.