Nigeria Content Online

The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) says it anticipates that exchange rate pressures
and volatility will persist for some time in Nigeria and other
Sub-Saharan African countries, according to latest report posted on its
website:

“African economies
can expect exchange rate pressures and volatility to persist for some
time. Shifts in commodity prices as well as in portfolio and other
private capital flows are likely to continue given the highly uncertain
trajectory of the global recovery, the geographic rebalancing of trade
flows, and volatility in the exchange rate of the main currencies,” the
IMF said after an analysis of the evolution of exchange rates of
sub-Saharan African currencies in the context of the global financial
crisis.

The report, which
focused on the differences in the magnitude and volatility of the
exchange rates among countries, was drawn from a sample of seven
countries, four members of the East African Community (EAC) (Kenya,
Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda), and three others, which experienced
large exchange rate losses at the outset of the crisis: Ghana, Nigeria,
and Zambia.

External Factors affected exchange rates

The IMF cited
external factors that reflect the transmission of the global crisis
through the trade and financial channels as well as the volatility of
the U.S. dollar, the main international reserve currency.

Abrupt fluctuations
in capital flows also contributed to exchange rate movements. “A
tightening of credit conditions in global financial markets and a
decline of confidence triggered a frantic race to safety by private
investors at the onset of the crisis. As expected, the resulting
depreciation was more pronounced in those countries that had received
large portfolio inflows prior to the crisis (Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria,
Uganda, and Zambia).”

The volatility of
the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency also had a strong effect on
African currencies. The dollar rose sharply against all currencies,
amplifying the depreciations that were triggered by other external
factors.

Challenges and implications

The IMF stated that
exchange rate volatility could hinder progress with financial
integration, skewing capital flows toward short-term options at the
expense of longer-term investment.

Lydia Olushola, an
economist and a consultant at Sky Trend Limited, a finance service
firm, said that real exchange rate is one of the major relative prices
in an economy, which actually defines the rate of exchange between
domestic goods and their foreign counterparts, and as a result, its
volatility has economy-wide implications.

“Exchange rate
volatility has real economic costs on an economy. It affects price
stability, firms’ profitability, and the country’s financial stability,
as a whole. Exchange rate volatility is also influenced by and
correlated to domestic economic uncertainty.”

She added that
countries have reasons to be worried about exchange rates volatility as
it may hinder international investment flows. “Companies may also be
reluctant to establish new firms or purchase existing ones in such
countries as exchange rate uncertainty reduces the expected profits
from such projects.

“Volatile exchange
rates also create uncertainty about income expected to be earned on
international transactions. It is one of the reasons some firms add
some allowance to all they sell to be on the safe side. These costs are
then passed on to consumers in form of higher prices, and then you know
what happens. Even traders would also be reluctant in their businesses
too as the volatility in the exchange rates adds additional risks to
their expected gains,” she said.

IMF’s remedy

The IMF however,
outlined ways of escape, both for the short and long term, to the
countries that are still experiencing exchange rates volatility, adding
that the deepening domestic financial markets is key to enhancing their
capacity to handle external financial volatility over the long term:

“Broader bond
markets will allow diversification into longer-term investment
instruments—important for long-term investors. Developing forward
hedging instruments would also generate some stability in the foreign
exchange market by reducing forward settlement risks.”

Nigeria’s Naira stable

Bismarck Rewane,
Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company, a finance and
research analysis firm and Member, National Economic Steering
Committee, is however, confident that the Nigerian Naira would remain
stable.

“The Naira is
expected to remain stable because higher oil prices will boost the
accumulation of external reserves, and this will also be supported by
increased sale of Forex by oil majors. The Naira remained unchanged at
N148.6to the dollar in the official market in February. In the parallel
market, it appreciated marginally by 0.32 per cent to N152 to the
dollar from N152.5 to the dollar the previous month. The FOREX demand
however, surged 7% to approximately $1.2 billion in February.

“The gain in
parallel market has been attributed to the increase in forex supply
from the Central Bank. The Year on Year spread between the official and
parallel rates narrowed by 87. 41% to 3.29 from 26.15 in 2009,
indicating a relatively more stable forex macroeconomic compared to
what obtained the previous year,” he explained.

Nigeria’s foreign
exchange market has remained relatively stable since the 2010 year
began. Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, the governor of the Central Bank of
Nigeria, in November 2009, said the Naira will trade between the N150
to $1 band till it finally regains full stability.