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Nigerian
banks are currently sitting on excess level of liquidity as financial
institutions are cautious to do real banking business post crisis
period. A recent report by Renaissance Capital (RenCap) stated that
with the relatively robust returns from government instruments, the
banks have virtually abandoned their intermediation role and are
playing safe.

“Traditionally
low-risk government T-bills, and recently government guaranteed
interbank assets, offer high-single digit to low-double-digit returns,
which encourages banks to run their balance sheets like hedge funds, as
opposed to proper economic intermediators of funds, as the additional
return (if any) on lending for the increased risk involved is, at
times, simply not worth the risk,” the report stated.

Deputy
governor, economic policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Sarah
Alade said recently that banks now prefer lending to government instead
of the real sector. “In terms of interest rate being high, when
government borrows money, offering banks higher rates than the private
sector can offer, banks naturally lend to government,” she said last
week at a forum in Lagos.

Efficient intervention needed

The
RenCap report therefore advised banks to grow their loan books. “For
us, the bottom line here is that the structure of Nigerian banks’
balance sheets, on average, highlights a very cautious, underleveraged
banking system that could comfortably squeeze-out more leverage, and
therefore bigger profits, without dramatically shifting out of their
low-risk comfort zones.” The report mentioned UBA and Zenith Bank as
institutions with the largest pool of cheap funds.

Recent positive trends

The
report incorporates coverage on Zenith Bank, First Bank, Access Bank,
Diamond Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank (GTB), United Bank for Africa (UBA),
Skye Bank, First City Monument Bank (FCMB) and Fidelity Bank. It
incorporates strong buy recommendation for Zenith Bank, First Bank,
UBA, FCMB, Skye Bank and Fidelity Bank as the sector looks forward to a
new growth spurt following the clean-up process undertaken by AMCON
(ASSET Management Corporation of Nigeria).

Renaissance Capital also anticipates strong credit growth in 2011
following recent positive trends. Speaking about the report, lead
author David Nangle said, “Taking into account AMCON’s success at
restoring confidence in the Nigerian Banking sector, we believe it is
poised for a new era of growth. This is based on Nigeria’s strong
macro-economic outlook, with growth projected to be between 7-8 per
cent in 2011 and the strong capitalisation in the banking sector.” The
report added that the moves by foreign banks to buy into the sector may
represent a medium-term threat to the current local private
bank-dominated playing field.

The
report stated that though the Nigerian banking space offers an
appealing investment base, there was still the risk associated with
frontier-markets investment. These include the legal system, with
regards to the length of time required to resolve financial court
cases, corruption, weak corporate governance, and the need to diversify
the economy.