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Tomorrow, Nigeria
will find out whether the incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, will
be a given another chance to prove his mettle as the nation’s leader,
or whether that huge responsibility will be handed over to former
military ruler, Muhammadu Buhari; former anti-corruption czar, Nuhu
Ribadu; or sitting Kano State governor, Ibrahim Shekararu. The four
leading candidates couldn’t be more strikingly different. The duo of
Jonathan and Sambo seem to represent the status quo; an unhurried
establishment candidacy that emphasizes the strength of its network,
its brand of unity, a string of self-professed achievement in less than
a year of government, and a calm strategic approach both to governance
and campaign strategy.

Mr Buhari and his
vice, Tunde Bakare, strike the very opposite pose. Seeking to position
themselves as insurgent change makers, the duo have emphasized their
independence from the establishment, a visceral anger about the state
of the nation, a pungent distaste for the ruling party and all it
represents, and a refusal to continue business as usual.

Mr Ribadu and his
deputy Fola Adeola have sought to appeal to the new generation of
voters, branding themselves as the youthful, engaged and connected
ticket that’s in line with a changing global economy. Touting their
achievements as builders of institutions – be it the Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission or Guaranty Trust Bank – they emphasise
that they can be trusted to ‘sweep’ away the old and usher in the new.

Finally, Mr
Shekarau, and with him the mostly silent John Oyegun, have sought to
parley the success of their respective national debates into a case for
competent, knowledge-based leadership.

Of course, there
are other candidates on the field – variously described as fringe – but
if the several polls by media and civil society are to be believed (and
there is no reason why they should not be) the battle is between the
four candidates profiled above.

It was just about
to get more interesting. However, Nigerians, excited by the possibility
of an epic battle following rumours of a coalition between the
candidates of the Congress for Progressive Change and the Action
Congress of Nigeria were disappointed when, with remarkably virulent
counter-accusations between the two camps, it appeared that, not only
had discussions broken down irretrievably, but none of the parties left
the discussions with respect for the other side.

There are those
who immediately point to the personal and political weaknesses of the
candidates involved and conclude that this gives an advantage to the
incumbent president – who has maintained a calm and presidential mien
throughout the campaign season.

However, while
this paper shares in the disappointment that comes from the inability
of the so-called presidential candidates to firm up strategies that can
give Nigerians even stronger choices, it would be unwise to immediately
make any conclusions from this series of perhaps unfortunate events.

As Nigerians
showed last weekend, there is a new sense of empowerment and
realisation that the people actually own the process and are able to
influence its outcome. There is no doubt that tomorrow will see even
greater numbers coming out to exercise their civic responsibility, and
reclaim their country – and they will do this with zero patience for
any manipulation of the process. The truth is – at least, based on the
sheer volume of political advertising by the prohibitive frontrunner –
no one, politician or public, is taking this election for granted.

This is just as it should be. The Nigerian voter is now the
beautiful bride, which is its proper place. If there are free and fair
elections tomorrow, in spite of whoever emerges victor, that singular
fact will immediately tilt the balance of power from president to the
people. And the next few years will truly then present a government for
and by the people. That, beyond the shenanigans of individual
candidates or their campaigns, is the real bottom line for tomorrow’s
duel.