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Nigeria will vote a president into
power over the next few days and the key determinant of people’s
choices will be based on the analysis of the fundamental challenge of
this greatly loved and often vilified country. For many who believe her
problem is corruption and indiscipline, they will choose Muhammadu
Buhari, a retired general, an honest and strict man who oversaw the
worst drop in the country’s economic history and ran one of its most
authoritarian dictatorships. For those who see the key challenge as
generational, they are most likely to cast their vote for Nuhu Ribadu,
a post-independence poster child who ran one of the most successful
interventions against corruption even though many saw him as just a
political attack dog. For those who want to end the irrational and
badly engineered hegemony of tribal as well as sectional majorities,
well, the current president is their choice. Then you have the
articulate Ibrahim Shekarau who seems to have captured those who want
someone with the presidential command of an audience or subject.

As we look at the rest of the world
days before this election, however, what lessons do the challenges and
standards raised and flying across the Middle East teach the Nigerian
voter? What lessons are emerging at the beginning of the second decade
of the 21st century? What is clear is that the 21st century abhors
hierarchy. It is also not impressed about the size and range of your
hardware. The 21st century is power ‘with’; rather than power ‘over’.
The transformation of Nigeria will not be done in Aso Rock or even in
the respective state houses, but in the shacks, face me-I face yous,
bungalows and duplexes of the 28 million Nigerian families. So how do
our presidential candidates fare as 21st century leaders who can enable
Nigerians to transform their country?

On economy

The Buhari/CPC
manifesto is the most specific and detailed on the economy, and has key
highlights especially integrating the informal economy as well as
reform of the Land Use Act, both of which can be transformational. The
Ribadu principle of creating macroeconomic discipline is similar to the
Jonathan approach, both are broad brushed and appear transactional,
however, therein lies the challenge. The Buhari principle assumes that
government has power over the economy rather than creating the climate
to enable the private sector. On the other hand, the Ribadu and
Jonathan principles are more focused on the enabling environment.

On corruption

The Ribadu
manifesto is the most transformative, recognising implicitly the issue
of equality of opportunity and the need for a system of creating value
over a concentration on the efficient and transparent distribution that
underpins both the Jonathan and Buhari outlooks. The Ribadu manifesto
looks at corruption as a challenge, not just in government but in all
sectors of society, and commits to enabling a value creation culture
that will open up responsibility. Of the three, Ribadu has the track
record for the best intervention against corruption in Nigeria.

On power

The Ribadu
manifesto is by far the clearest statement, setting out an agenda for
capacity improvement and the increase in energy sources. It
specifically engages the longer term and sustainable needs of Nigeria.
The Jonathan manifesto is short on facts but maybe relies on the energy
policy of the government which recognises the role of the private
sector as does the Ribadu position. The Buhari manifesto is focused
solely on increased capacity with a broad statement on alternative
energies.

All the manifestos
ignore the most sustained and profound trend in the Nigerian landscape
— the issue of urban migration or urbanisation and its implications for
the future. It currently grows at about twice the rate of population
growth, i.e. 2.8 percent per annum population growth and 5.8 percent
urban population growth. They also ignore the unsustainable nature of
the population growth and its effect on the ability to provide quality
life.

On women

Far more revealing
is their position on women’s development. Jonathan’s plan is totally
silent on women’s issues or their special role in transforming the
country. In the Buhari manifesto, it appears women are an afterthought.
It essentially guarantees that women have their constitutional rights
and representation. The Ribadu manifesto puts the women’s agenda at the
top of their list, setting out the implementation of all international
commitments to the development and transformation of the lives of
women. It is also the only manifesto that gives specific focus to the
majority of the Nigerians — the young people.

The presidency of
the Federal Republic of Nigeria is not a place for temper tantrums. It
is a sacred role to enable the dreams of nearly 150 million Nigerians
for a society in which they can pursue prosperity. The challenge is to
find the leader who recognises we need authoritative engagement, not
authoritarian pronouncements; that inspires ownership not encouraging
dependency; one that understands that it is ultimately to share in our
power, not have power over us.

Adewale Ajadi writes from Ibadan.