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If one week is a long time in politics, eight years is certainly
an eternity. Eight years ago, Ibrahim Shekarau, the current governor of Kano
State, was a classroom teacher, having been demoted from the rank of Permanent
Secretary. Politically, he was unknown. He had no money, no contacts and no
prospects. But by a lucky turn of fate, events conspired to make him governor
of Nigeria’s most populous state.

The sympathy that followed the former principal’s demotion by
then governor, Rabiu Musa Kwanwkaso, propelled Governor Shekarau to the
limelight, but the support of Muhammadu Buhari, then candidate of the All
Nigeria Peoples Party, guaranteed Mr. Shekarau’s victory at the governorship
elections, by a substantial margin of votes. It was the most spectacular, and
maybe only, defeat of an incumbent PDP governor without litigation.

In the perverse way we have of measuring performance in office,
those who are benefitting directly or indirectly from Mr Shekarau will swear to
high heavens that he is one of the best governors ever, in the history of Kano.
Those who lost out in the power game or are not getting financial handouts from
the governor will tell you he has become embroiled in deceit and double-speak.
To them, the humble mallam now has a haughty manner.

Beyond dispensing government largesse as a philosophy of
government unique to Nigeria, what are the impact of policies and programmes on
the society? What will Mr Shekarau be remembered for? In the history of Kano,
late governors Audu Bako and Abubakar Rimi stand out prominently for the
lasting and unforgettable impact they had on the state. But when a leader
leaves no imprints – neither in terms of philosophy nor material legacies, he
might as well not have existed.

Naturally, Mr Shekarau’s cronies will produce long lists of
things the governor has achieved in office. Mr. Shekarau himself likes to
repeat at every opportunity that he has brought peace to Kano and can do the
same for Nigeria. Let us commend him for that. Governance in Nigeria is so
mundane and unimaginative that a governor who is able to maintain relative
peace in his state suddenly thinks he should be president. It provided comic
relief, watching an overdressed Shekarau trying very hard on BBC Hardtalk to
justify why he thinks he qualifies to be president. Though a little more
convincing than Goodluck Jonathan’s forgettable experience with Christine
Amampour on CNN, overall, the interview came across as a charade.

Today, Mr. Shekarau is running for president. Try not to laugh,
but does he really believe it himself? Is he expecting the kind of miracle that
projected him from an unknown, underfunded candidate to governor eight years
ago? Is he expecting that by a similar kind of miracle, he will become
President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria come May 29, 2011? Then he has to
be prepared to lose his faith in the power of miracles. In the Kano of 2003, it
was a straight fight between himself and Mr. Kwankwaso. General Buhari’s
popularity ensured his victory. Today, the level of political sophistication
and voter awareness has changed. Having ridden on Buhari’s back to the
governorship, he now feels sufficiently grown up to challenge the General. Many
people believe he is acting out a PDP script to dilute Buhari’s numbers.

Of all presidential candidates, President Jonathan is first in
terms of media visibility, structure and elite support. In terms of raw appeal
among the masses and the under-privileged, Buhari is by far the most popular
candidate. In appealing to an indeterminate middle class, Ribadu is in charge.
To throw in a mix of clowns and charlatans, Dele Momodu and Chris Okotie hold
sway. And when talking about candidates with ideas, but without a realistic
platform, Pat Utomi is king. In this regard, what is Shekarau’s primary
constituency? Whose vote does he want to attract? And what is the electoral
value of selecting John Oyegun as his running mate?

One of the dangers of political office and power is that people
lose touch with reality. Another danger is that people are often afraid of
speaking truth to power, especially the unpalatable variety. Mr Shekarau has a
retinue of very intelligent advisers and aides. Obviously, none of them has had
the courage to tell him the real truth, bitter as it may be. The miracle of
2003 will not happen again. The leading candidates – Jonathan, Buhari and
Ribadu will not crumble as Kwankwaso did.

Is it worth spending so much time, energy and resources just to earn the
title ‘former presidential candidate’?