Nigeria Content Online

If any of the four leading
presidential candidates for the upcoming elections thought that
clinching a clear majority of votes would be a walk in the park, they
better think again. Especially the People’s Democratic Party. The camp
of the Goodluck Jonathan campaign is quickly coming to terms with the
fact that the supposed stronghold states of the president turned in
poor results in the recently concluded voter registration. Predictions
of votes based on the traditional voting blocs shows that none of the
three presidential candidates will win the required simple majority and
25 percent in 24 states including the Federal Capital Territory.
Although analysts believe the winner of the election will emerge on his
personality as well as the bloc votes, the current reality of the bloc
votes leaves the new campaign council anxiously battling to maintain a
clean unbeaten record and deliver the election to their principal. The
southeast and south-south geopolitical zones where President Jonathan
has his highest popularity rating registered the lowest number of
voters. The south-south geopolitical zone, President Jonathan’s home
zone registered only 7.959 million voters. Despite President Jonathan’s
popularity in the south-south region, Edo and Delta States hold about
2.1 million votes and show strong affiliation with Mr. Ribadu and his
party, ACN.

The southeast, the PDP’s second
stronghold registered 6.892 million, the least volume of registration
nationwide. PDP is also not certain of clean out victory in Imo State
with its 1.6 million votes following the defection of Ifeanyi Ararume
and other former influential members of the PDP in the state.

Both zones registered a sum of
14.852 million voters, which is less than the 18,368 million voters
registered in the northwest, and just hundreds of thousands above the
14,057 million voters registered in the southwest. Both the southwest
and the northwest are President Jonathan’s weakest links. The northwest
is held as the iron grip of the Congress for Political Change (CPC)
whose presidential candidate, Mohammadu Buhari, is also from the region.

“The northwest believes Jonathan
has stolen their mandate and may never vote for him in bloc,” Ikemefuna
Justice, an analyst said. However, Mr. Buhari’s high handedness and
allegations of imposition of candidates as well as his choice of vice
president have loosened his party’s grip on the fundamentally Islamic
northeast. The crises rocking the CPC however place Mr. Ribadu and the
ACN at the lucky end in the North West. In Kano state, Abdullahi
Gwarzo, the deputy governor, recently quit the All Nigeria People’s
Party (ANPP) to join Can. Meanwhile, Mohammed Abacha, who was one of
CPC’s most influential members in the state, is at loggerheads with the
party and Buhari over his gubernatorial ticket. The same crises plagues
the party in Katsina, Bauchi and Kaduna where Buhari is said to have
abandoned the politicians he built CPC with for others. Nuhu Ribadu,
the Presidential candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria is from
the northeast region; however, he has his highest acceptability in the
southwest.

Not all lost

The PDP, however, still has the
potential of pulling large votes in both Oyo and Ogun state in the
region despite deep rooted divisions in the party there. The northeast
and north central states are forage fields for all the presidential
candidates. In the northeast, the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP)
becomes a factor. The northeast registered 8.560 million voters while
the North Central registered 8.142 million voters. Together both zones
have 16.702 million voters which both the PDP Presidential Campaign
Council and their principal are not certain of victory. In the
northeast, ANPP with Ibrahim Shekarau as its presidential candidate
wields a high level of popularity in Borno but shares equal potentials
with the CPC in Yobe state. While PDP is almost certain of winning
Gombe state, the ~ ruling would have to put up a strong fight to win
Bauchi state over CPC. Adamawa, Mr. Ribadu’s home state is most likely,
but not certainly, going to vote in his favour. However, both the PDP
and CPC have strong potentials in the state. Mr. Ribadu and his party,
however, wields a high potential in Taraba, the least registered of the
northeast states. While the traditional bloc votes will determine the
basic direction of votes, other factors such as the personality and
media popularity of the contenders will finetune factor their
achievements in each of the states.