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Fifty-eight years
and 364 days after the “Burning of Cairo” on January 26, 1952 by masses
of Egyptians, January 25, 2011 marked the beginning of the longest and
noisiest mass vigil to bury the Mubarak regime. That burial was
completed on February 11. Day after day, the international media
reports on the streams of Egyptian youth flowing through the big
squares of Cairo. Unlike Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe and former
President Laurent Gbagbo of Cote d’Ivoire, Egyptians have sent Mr.
Mubarak to a seaside retirement. Whither Egypt?

A brief extract of
facts is necessary to provide a context for its current uprising. Egypt
was ranked 98th most corrupt country in the 2010 Corruption Perception
Index of Transparency International. Its score of 3.1 lies slightly
less than halfway between Ghana’s score of 4.1, giving it a rank of 61,
and the score of 2.4 earned by Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Togo, and
Zimbabwe, tied at 134th most corrupt states on earth.

Turning to the
Ease of Doing Business Survey of the World Bank, Egypt is the 94th most
difficult place to do business. Ghana, by contrast, has a rank of 67
and Nigeria has a ranking of 137. In concrete terms, a foreign company
like Zambeef took 9 months to get a business license in Nigeria while
its Ghanaian subsidiary took 2 weeks to get the same license. We can
infer that it could take approximately 4.5 months to get a business
license in Egypt. Egypt has no chance of reducing its 24% unemployment
rate for the 15-24 age group when it takes such a long time to get a
business license to start a formal business.

Teeming unemployed
Egyptian masses also face exploding food prices. Egypt is the largest
wheat importer in the world. Unfortunately, the price of wheat has
doubled over the last year. Yet, expressing one’s frustration about
daily hardships or politics has been a hazardous undertaking for
Egyptians. Presiding over high unemployment and high corruption at a
time of high food prices while suppressing the free expression of
views, President Mubarak was asking for civil uprisings.

It is time to
consider some religious peculiarities. An American foundation called
the Pew Research Centre conducts surveys of people around the world to
elicit their opinions on topics such as the role of religion in
politics. In response to the question whether Islam has a positive role
in national politics, 85% of Egyptian Muslims thought it had a positive
role, compared to 82% of Nigerian Muslims, and 38% of Turkish Muslims.

As a former ruler
of Egypt for centuries and a modern democracy governed by an Islamist
party, Turkey paints one picture of the possible contours of a
democratic Egypt. Finally, Pew Research Centre reports that 82% of
Egypt’s Muslims would like to legalise the stoning of people who commit
adultery, 77% would like to cut off the hands of thieves, and 84%
believe that those who leave the Muslim faith should suffer the death
penalty. 56% of Nigeria’s Muslims support stoning for adultery, 65%
desire hand amputation for theft, and 51% would like Islamic apostates
to die. By contrast, only 16% of Turkish Muslims support stoning, 13%
are for hand amputation, and a minuscule 5% believe that death is the
only suitable punishment for a loss of Islamic faith.

Mao Tse-Tung said
that the guerilla must move among the people as a fish swims in the
sea. The Egyptian sea is likely to be acidic for those guerillas
seeking a secular democratic state.

Whither Egypt?
Hosni Mubarak has been the political face of a military regime. Except
for the 1805 to 1952 period, the army has ruled Egypt since the Mamluk
establishment in 1250. I doubt that the military will surrender power
anytime soon. Maybe, they will settle for a “Turkish” solution in which
secular democracy in law is guaranteed in fact by the military which
checks fundamentalist Islamic legislative impulses.

There will be huge
demonstrations of joy at Mubarak’s resignation. Urban Egypt,
constituting 43% of Egypt’s population, will come to a standstill. Yet,
Egypt is in a vice. Mubarak’s departure has no impact on the price of
bread or jobs and the new military junta is simply the transient
acceptable face of the old order.

Egypt has begun to write another chapter in Islamic democracy. We
shall learn whether that chapter is imbued with religious tolerance for
all! In the meantime, congratulations to the valiant youth of Egypt.