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The manner in which the crisis in Cote d’Ivoire is
resolved or not resolved, will determine whether Africa embarks on a
major democratic regression. If the continent allows a third African
president to lose an election and continue in power, we would be saying
goodbye to any president losing an election and accepting alternation
of power. The Ivorien crisis is therefore a battle for deepening
African democracy.

According to Laurent Gbagbo, another name for God
is time. He is referring to his capacity over time to convince African
leaders not to fight him so that when their turn comes, they have a
precedent that would support their authoritarian penchants. In early
January, Africa and the international community were unambiguous that
they would forcefully remove Gbagbo if he refuses to hand over to the
winner of the presidential elections, Alassane Ouattara. And then the
flip-flopping started.

First, the Ghanaian president, John Atta Mills
expressed his reservation about the use of force. He was followed
Liberia’s Ellen Johnson and then Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni who
now openly opposes recognition of Mr. Ouattara until a thorough
investigation of the November elections is conducted.

Jacob Zuma, the South African leader has
questioned why we should support only one side thereby suggesting he is
for the Zimbabwe/Kenya style power sharing arrangement. Of course the
problem of power sharing is that if it continues, all incumbents in
Africa would be convinced that they could negotiate retaining power
after losing elections.

The change of heart that is emerging among some
African leaders is due to taking Gbagbo’s threat seriously. He has
openly affirmed that the millions of Africans who live in the country
would be targets of any attempt to remove him by force. He is not only
talking, he is also acting. According to the recent Human Rights Watch
report, Gbagbo’s security forces in Cote d’Ivoire have carried out
torture, rape, forced disappearances and extra-judicial killings during
the political crisis between the country’s incumbent president and the
internationally recognized winner of November’s presidential vote. They
detail how security forces and militiamen loyal to incumbent president
Laurent Gbagbo are imposing a reign of terror against supporters of the
United Nations-certified winner of Cote d’Ivoire’s presidential
election, Alassane Ouattara. According to Corinne Dufka, the Human
Rights Watch senior researcher for West Africa:

“Of course, we went into our investigation looking
at the potential for attacks by supporters on both sides of the
political divide. What we found was that the vast majority of them
involving security forces and militia have targeted Ouattara
supporters, northern Ivoriens, as well as West African immigrants,”

Gbagbo’s message to the world is that either he is
left to rule forever or he will massacre people. As was the case in the
preparation of the Rwandan massacre, he has been using radio and
television to spread hate speech to prepare for the massacre. Already,
killings, rapes and forced disappearances are increasing by the day. If
the world allows Gbagbo to maintain the checkpoints in Abidjan used for
committing these atrocities, then a very sad page is being turned in
Africa.

I believe that if Gbagbo is allowed to continue
with his delays and tactics of intimidation, the legitimate winner of
the elections who also has armed forces at his disposal would be
obliged to confront Gbagbo’s forces both to defend those being attacked
and to reclaim his mandate. This would open the route to a long drawn
out civil war, which would be a terrible outcome. Gbagbo is stubborn
and the use of force is clearly inevitable. In this case, the best
option is to engage in a surgical operation to remove him as quickly as
possible. As Gbagbo has been boasting, his closest allies are delays
and equivocation.

ECOWAS must maintain its resolve to use all
possible means, including force, to enforce the principles of the
ECOWAS Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance and the
African Union Charter on Democracy, Elections and Good Governance as
quickly as possible.

The elections in Cote d’Ivoire are part of the
long and painstaking attempts to save the country from the ravages of
civil war. It’s a country that was not too long ago one of the shining
stars of stability and prosperity in the West African region. The
prosperity was based on encouraging African immigration. Today, 40% of
the country’s population are descendants of immigrants. To prevent a
long drawn out civil war between the Gbagbo-controlled Southern army
and the Forces Nouvelles (New Forces) controlled by the Northerners,
the third force from ECOWAS must intervene quickly to return the
country to peace and prosperity. Let’s go back to referring to Cote
d’Ivoire as the country that is the model of the ‘African miracle.’