Nigeria Content Online

There is a lot
that is distasteful about Laurent Gbagbo, recalcitrant president of
Cote d’Ivoire, the second biggest country in West Africa and home to 21
million people. For the past ten years that he has been president the
country has fought a bitter civil war and its residents have lived on
edge, divided right down the middle by their support or opposition to
the policies of the Gbagbo government.

Hitherto the most
vibrant economy in the sub-region, Cote d’Ivoire has also taken a hit.
Statistics from the World Bank show that its per capita income has
declined by 15% since 1999. Although it is increasingly reliant on its
growing oil and gas sector, the majority of the populace still depends
on agriculture – especially of cocoa and coffee – and this has been
affected by the political instability brought about by the government
of Mr. Gbagbo.

This also means
that rather than play a positive role in the development of West
Africa, Cote d’Ivoire under Mr. Gbagbo has been a source of conflict
and distraction for regional leaders. Tied up as it were in its
self-inflicted internal battles, the country has not played its part in
the resolution of conflicts in other countries in the region,
especially in the francophone club of nations of which it was the
leader.

Worse, the country
is now host to a United Nations force – and a drain on international
peacekeeping funds. It has also become a net exporter of refugees, who
are now streaming into neighbouring countries such as Guinea and
Liberia that are, themselves, just recovering from crises.

And all of that
was before Mr. Gbagbo decided not to respect the outcome of last year’s
presidential election, adjudged by local and international observers to
have been won by his bête noir and opponent in the race, Alhassan
Ouattara.

Things have
speedily degenerated since then, leading to the inauguration of both
Messrs Gbagbo and Ouattara as president of the country. Of course this
did not tell the true picture, because the reins of government are
still very much in Mr. Gbagbo’s hands and the armed forces of the
country are still loyal to him.

His opponent, Mr.
Ouattara, is left to dawdle in a hotel where he is holed up, protected
by United Nations forces and occupying himself with receiving streams
of foreign dignitaries who drop in to shore up his confidence and
reaffirm his mandate.

A number of these
have been from the West African regional body, ECOWAS which, along with
the African Union has taken a firm stance against Mr. Gbagbo. These
bodies have insisted that power must be handed over to the winner of
the election, Mr. Ouattara and that the end has come to the rule of the
big man in Cote d’Ivoire.

Apart from the
many carrots being dangled before Mr. Gbagbo – including asylum in
several countries – is a hard stick option of military action against
him.

Now, the Ivorien
military is not what it was. It is yet to recover from the bruising
civil war against rebel forces and most of its aircraft had been
degraded by the French after some soldiers of that country died during
an attack on their base by the Ivorien air force during the civil war.
But that does not mean they would roll over in the face of an invasion
by West African countries.

With most of the
army stationed in and around Abidjan, the country’s biggest city and
Gbagbo’s seat of power, a fight to remove the man is likely to be
bloody and destructive. If it finally succeeds, an enthronement of Mr.
Ouattara would then be little more than a hollow victory for his
backers, as he would have to deal with the bitterness of victims of
such an operation.

Plus, the cost of
such a multinational operation would not be small either. Nigeria, the
country that is expected to provide the bulk of such a force, is hardly
in a good position to do so. The country is facing strain in its own
finances and it has a major election coming up in a couple of months.
An invasion will also jeopardise the lives and livelihood of millions
of West African nationals – a large number of who are Nigerians –
living in Cote d’Ivoire.

As President
Goodluck Jonathan said this week, the matter is delicate. The first
rule in conflict resolution is not to aggravate existing conditions.
So, West African leaders should continue to, gently but firmly nudge
Mr. Gbagbo towards taking the decent action of leaving office in the
interest of the country he professes to love. He is already feeling the
heat and will eventually capitulate. It will be a sweeter achievement
for our leaders if this is done without firing a shot.