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The saga of the recent stolen elections of Cote
d’Ivoire is both a nightmare and a blessing for Africa. Mr. Gbagbo is
not the president of Cote d’Ivoire, whatever he might think and however
many unarmed civilians the Ivorian army may kill.

It is a nightmare because, if Mr. Gbagbo is
allowed to stay in office, African elections lose credibility. Why go
to the voting booth in any African country if the loser can use armed
force to remain in power? In essence, Mr. Gbagbo is attempting a
civilian coup d’etat.

It is a blessing so far because the Ivorian
electorate and African states have spoken with a rare unanimity against
the naked theft of power by Mr. Gbagbo and his supporters. That voice
of unanimity heralds the end of “African solutions” in which
governments of national unity allow electoral thieves and their victims
to share power in an uneasy coalition.

We have a nightmare of a journey to walk in Cote
d’Ivoire before Cote d’Ivoire’s real president assumes office. That
nightmare could last several months. Mr. Gbagbo is determined to use
military force to quash his opponents. Three days ago, soldiers in
Abidjan killed at least six individuals. Despite the imposition of
sanctions against Mr. Gbagbo and his entourage, he knows that it is
unlikely that the international community will impose sanctions to
impede the daily activities of Ivorian individuals and businesses.
Thus, Cote d’Ivoire will be able to earn foreign exchange to pay for
imports.

Impeding the ability of Cote d’Ivoire to earn
foreign exchange imposes huge costs on the CFA Franc zone because Cote
d’Ivoire accounts for approximately 40% of that Francophone West
African Economic Zone’s exports. The loss of 40% of that zone’s foreign
exchange earnings would necessitate a devaluation of the CFA Franc
against the Euro, leading to high inflation throughout that zone and
imposing unexpected losses on French-controlled businesses.
Nevertheless, it is easily predictable that Cote d’Ivoire will default
on its external debt if Gbagbo remains in office for several months.
Cote d’Ivoire will do so to conserve foreign exchange.

It is one thing for Mr. Gbagbo to desire to stay
in office despite his defeat. It is another for his Ivorian military
and civilian supporters to remain steadfast in their support. Those
supporters will have to weigh carefully the possibility of a trial for
post-electoral violence and human rights abuses before the
International Criminal Court after the departure of Mr. Gbagbo from
office, whether that departure takes place in 2010 or in 2015.

The December 15 issue of summons by the
International Criminal Court for six Kenyan politicians and civil
servants to answer charges of committing crimes against humanity should
give Mr. Gbagbo’s supporters food for reflection. After all, Charles
Taylor, the former leader of their neighbour, is now on trial before
that very court. The more violence and deaths inflicted by the military
of Cote d’Ivoire, the higher the likelihood that its leaders will end
their lives in some foreign jail. Consequently, I doubt that members of
Mr. Gbagbo’s entourage will remain united in their support for him for
too long. If I had to guess, I would give their current unanimity a
shelf life not exceeding six months.

Mr. Gbagbo hopes that the current firm stand of
the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States and
the United Nations will wither in the next six months of military and
police intimidation. The position of West Africa’s regional powerhouse
– Nigeria – is paramount. Nigeria’s domestic politics favour a tough
position against Mr. Gbagbo during its 2011 election season. President
Jonathan is able to project the image of a statesman indifferent to
religious origins by supporting the assumption of actual power by
President Ouattara. Mr Ouattara is a Muslim from the north of Cote
d’Ivoire. If Nigeria votes for a Northern president to replace
President Jonathan, then its position against Mr. Gbagbo is likely to
continue after the expiry of the current Jonathan term of office.

Let us turn to Cote d’Ivoire’s neighbours. They
have no domestic reason to change their current position of hostility.
Except for the Liberians, most of Cote d’Ivoire’s neighbours have
ethnic kinsmen in Ouattara’s camp; not Gbagbo’s camp. So, it is
unlikely that Gbagbo will find Ecowas changing its tune in the next six
months.

The Gbagbo nightmare is likely to end in a good
way for Africa if Africans remain united. Its end will spell good
riddance to dictatorial rubbish!!