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The
world economic growth has remained unbalanced, making global economic
forecast for this year and next difficult, a report from the
Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said.

The OPEC, in its
Oil Market Report, September 2010, said the persisting impact of the
recent global recession, as well as “the ongoing effects of the
unprecedented government-led stimulus” have created a significant
amount of uncertainty in forecasting gross domestic product (GDP)
growth for most countries.

“The world economic
growth in 2010 remains unchanged since the previous report at 3.9 per
cent, while 2011 has been revised down slightly to 3.6 percent. The
imbalance in global growth has intensified, with a deceleration
becoming apparent in most of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) countries, while developing countries continue
to expand,” the report said.

Repeated revisions

According to the
report, repeated revisions to world economic growth – a key driver of
oil demand – has made forecasting oil market developments in 2010
particularly difficult.

“This is in
addition to other highly uncertain factors, such as the sectorial
distribution of growth, the price of oil relative to its substitutes
and weather conditions, which also impact oil consumption,” it said,
adding that as a result, the forecasts for oil demand are subject to
frequent revisions.

It also said the
main driver behind these revisions has been the stronger-than-expected
impact of fiscal and monetary stimuli enacted by governments and
central banks across the globe.

The OPEC said the present economic condition in most developed countries is discouraging.

“The economic
recovery is not only slow, but is also facing turbulence. The fact that
some OECD countries can no longer afford stimulus plans is likely to
pressure their economies in the second half of this year, leading to
weaker oil demand compared to the first half,” it said.

Nevertheless, the
report said the global economic recovery that started during the second
half of 2010 is projected to continue throughout 2011, however, at a
slow pace. It added that the recovery in oil demand next year will take
place in approximately all quarters, although with more strength in the
second half of the year.

‘Nigeria can improve’

Akinbade Ibisiola,
head, research team at Resource Cap, a portfolio management company,
said the current growth of the Nigerian economy can be improved upon.

“Since Nigerian
economy is a developing market, the much acclaimed GDP growth, which is
presently in the region of 7 percent, can be improved upon if our
country embarks on more developmental projects that can boost the
nation’s economic performance,” Mr. Ibisiola said.

Meanwhile, the
governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Sanusi Lamido Sanusi,
last Friday, said most emerging market economies have been known to use
the domestic financial institutions to execute real sector “big ticket
projects” and financial institutions in Nigeria should not be an
exception, if the country hopes to achieve its developmental objectives.

“The CBN is focusing attention on ensuring that the financial
system, in general, and the banking system, in particular, begins to
serve the needs of the Nigerian economy so as to make the Nigerian
economy to be resilient,” Mr. Sanusi said.